Cheltenham Festival

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22 Feb 20 19:38
Date Joined: 29 Jul 12
| Topic/replies: 28 | Blogger: Taxiex's blog
I am convinced Kildisart has been layed out for this all season. He is a course winner and I believe he ran a great race over a distance too short behind Defi Du Seuil last year.

It was interesting to hear Ben's comments at the beginning of the season where he thought he was probably just below grade class but a top end handicapper. He has done really well to get his handicap mark back to only 3lb higher than when romping home at Aintree.

I don't believe he jumped well at all today but he stayed on promisingly at the end and put in the sort of performance I would expect as a last prep before Aintree.

I hope his jumping improves and think he has a great chance regardless.
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Report Taxiex February 22, 2020 7:40 PM GMT
Last prep before Cheltenham
Report ENGLANDBARNES1 February 22, 2020 10:55 PM GMT
Dodgy stable form all season.
Report nocturnal February 23, 2020 8:33 AM GMT
Not the worst shout by any stretch,the first handicap puzzle of the meeting.

His chance may also be increased by one huge positive.

Probably no better example of a horses history than Kildisart, pointing to him having a preference for going left or right handed,and trainers using this to their advantage.

His record at HQ also reads well.

However,the very nature of the term handicap,may also apply.

Not only can we look at the horse,there is also a second element to the partnership.

If he gets the same pilot, I would have him + 7 lb,that would be 158 in his case.

Around this track,at this meeting,you want everything in your favour.

Report GAZO February 23, 2020 11:43 AM GMT
he might want it to stop raining
Report ENGLANDBARNES1 February 23, 2020 12:53 PM GMT
Galvin has some interesting pedigree which should have him bang their over 3m 2. May prefer it quicker though.
Report nocturnal February 23, 2020 2:26 PM GMT
Very interesting horse EB1,currently rated 140 at home,what will he get over here.

10/12 runnings have been won by novices / 2nd season chasers (gaultstats),pretty high %

OR 140 was required to get in last year,bottom weight 10-11 lb.

That compression of the handicap has thrown many of the weight stats out the window.

No Irish trained winner since 2006,would have thought this would have right up their street.

9/10 winners had run at a previous festival,again very high %

The Conditional ..... currently 139,2nd in the Hennessey,a few in behind have franked that form,Yala Enki, Mr Malarkey,Regal Encore and Ok Corral. No surprise to see him well found in the current market,he could run riot off that sort of mark,should he get in.

Big River ...... 141,got in last year at number 24.Looked back at all 28 replays from last year,if there was any horse who made up more ground in the home straight,I must have missed it.Tailed off rounding the home bend,he took off up the home straight,just what was that all about ?

Just the 91 to wade through,many with multiple entries,think I will pass for the moment Surprised
Report ENGLANDBARNES1 February 24, 2020 11:05 AM GMT
The Irish handicappers normally get a weight rise between 2 and 5lb so would be happy with Galvin off 143 although I’ve not gone through the whole entries yet so could find a few others.
Report Can't Catch Me February 24, 2020 11:35 AM GMT
Galvin going for the Novice Handicap isnt he?
Report Can't Catch Me February 24, 2020 11:45 AM GMT
I've backed both Kildisart and Discorama at 33's and The Conditional at 14/1 NRNB. The Hennessy form has had a few nice boost and if the latter gets in off 139 he could be tough to beat. Really happy with those three.
Report paulo47 February 24, 2020 3:03 PM GMT
Cobra de Mai at 50s , pleased he didnt run on Sat (was entered ) and 142 should be ok , hope its the plan .
Report stormey1 February 24, 2020 5:20 PM GMT
For those interested Galvin was entered in England while back presumably to see what mark he was given and it was 142
Report betilyerded February 24, 2020 9:38 PM GMT
Funny Taxiex as I texted my mate Saturday morning with exactly the same comments. .
I backed him at 33-1 NRNB with Bet365 earlier in week. Was then trimmed into 25s later in week. They pushed him out to 33's again immediately after the race when other firms were cutting him. They soon followed suit and are now 20's!!
As for the race he did jump pretty poorly at times but that seems to be the way he is. Gets from A-B in his own fashion. Theres a chance he may come down another pound or two on Weds. We shall see.
Interesting that he gubbed Major Malarkey at Aintree last April off similar terms too.

Also agree with the comments on here regarding The Conditional and 139 does look lenient but wouldnt touch Big River with borrowed money. Sulky so and so.
Report Whythelongface? February 25, 2020 9:12 AM GMT
Can’t help but feel last years JLT runners are a bunch well above average.
Lostintranslation a real live gold cup contender, Defi arguably the same in champion chase and then we have Kildistart and Vinndication likely going here.
I was impressed with Kildistart last run. Nice prep but can’t get away from Vinnie here.
Had a terrible prep last season, wasnt 100% was decided not to go festival then changed mind again late on. Jumped awful that day, didn’t travel yet still finished a nose behind kildistart in 5th place.
Besides the stone bruise incident he’s in a much better place this time of year and his performances have been great for me, his ascot handicap just showing what he’s capable of really. Think he’s still a very generous price. One of my biggest fancies, in a very realistic race for horse of such ability.
Report ENGLANDBARNES1 February 25, 2020 3:24 PM GMT
I hope you Kildisart fans are on already as atleast 3 of the racing post team have gone public via the app or podcast saying how much they like this Ben Pauling yolk.
I imagine the price will be going south rather quickly.
I’ve not looked at the stats, but I just wonder if this stables horses suit flatter tracks? Has he had many winners at Cheltenham? I think of him more as a Kempton, Newbury or Aintree kind of trainer.
Report GAZO February 25, 2020 3:32 PM GMT
the horse has already won at cheltenham but not the festival,would be worried about soft going over this trip on a stiff track like cheltenham
Report betilyerded February 25, 2020 6:10 PM GMT
Saw that EB1. Keith Melrose being one of them - dont know if thats a good or bad thing?
Best price 16's now which is more realistic. Just thought 33-1 was overpriced given how well the JLT has worked out.
Report betilyerded February 25, 2020 7:31 PM GMT
And Tom Segal. And Ben Litfoot. Thats it screwed then!

See its been dropped a pound by handicapper.

Btw anyone know when the weights come out for all the handicaps?
Report Deptford February 25, 2020 7:38 PM GMT
Think tomorrow ^
Report ENGLANDBARNES1 February 25, 2020 9:25 PM GMT
Paul Kealy was also another one who fancies him!
Report Deptford February 25, 2020 9:45 PM GMT
Fancied Onefortheroadtom, not entered, been given easy rides.
Report ENGLANDBARNES1 February 25, 2020 9:52 PM GMT
Not sure Deptford, I’ve been stung by that horse a couple of times. It always looks perfect for a big bet but then let’s me down. I’ll be against it wherever it next turns up.
Report Taxiex February 26, 2020 7:18 PM GMT
I backed him at 33/1 NRNB straight after the Kempton race. I think he has a legitimate chance and I have to back a horse who I think has a chance at that price. Of course it doesn't mean he will win but here's hoping.
Report Tiger Tiger February 26, 2020 7:30 PM GMT
The weights for the handicaps were announced this afternoon.

Kildisart gets in on 11-3 with Alpha Des Obeaux and Vindication joint top weights.
Report Gordon63 March 1, 2020 4:32 PM GMT
backed burbank and deise aba today - seen a few references to deise aba being more likely to run in kim muir but hopefully dickie can persuade the connections to run here, can't have vinndication giving all that weight especially under a bog standard david bass push and kick ride from the front
Report dunlaying March 9, 2020 11:27 AM GMT
I think Elwood is the bet . But for the e/w I like Vivas . On my figures he has 6lb to find on Elwood but not much on any of the others . He is an outsider but by no means a forlorn hope .
Report Taxiex March 9, 2020 5:46 PM GMT
Would have preferred better ground for kildisart but the bet is on at three times the price he is now so we shall see.
Report muse March 10, 2020 12:52 AM GMT

I loved Kildisart for this a long while back, but can't back him on the ground.  Good luck anyway; you never know.  Quarenta, Mister Malarky, Discorama, Big River are my longlist thus far. Will have a further and final look in the morning, but I have already backed Quarant anyway.

Report Taxiex March 10, 2020 3:07 PM GMT
Gutted, ran a lot better than I expected on the ground.

Between him and abracadbras this festival is killing me and only been 3 races haha! Even backed big river to place 4 places for an extra low blow.
Report betilyerded March 10, 2020 9:13 PM GMT
Well done all you winners, particularly Cant Catch Me - great result!
I had the Conditional at 8's and Kildisart at 33's so easily the best result of the day for me too. That warwick form is red hot which augers well for Le Breuil in the Kim Muir and Petite Power in saturdays Midlands national.
Report nocturnal March 10, 2020 10:38 PM GMT
Amazing shout Cant Catch Me

24th February and you name the 1st 3 home,some feat ..... WP

Kildisart ran acracker carrying the 7lb penalty on top.

Year after year manages to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory,on some very good horses.
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