Cheltenham Festival

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11 Jan 20 11:58
Date Joined: 09 Jan 11
| Topic/replies: 13,282 | Blogger: FOYLESWAR's blog
connections paid £290,000  at the chelt sales for this son of coastal way and 2 from 2  so far 1 bumper and a 2m easy  hurdles win , holds  supreme ,ballymore and spuds race  entries at the festival.  willie mullins said we will step him up in trip now he is a 3 mile chaser and to win that race over just short of 2 miles was very good ,when asked will you be easy on him this season and put him away willie said no we were easy on him last year we will go hard on him now and get him racing or words to that effect . open to any amount of improvement esp when going over a trip, he is  a dark un  and around 25s with the shops for the spuds and 20s the neptune .imo the spuds race would be the way to go but that race can bottom then and he may have a pop at envoi allen in the ballymore, wherever he goes he is worth following imo and i have taken the prices in both races . envoi may be unbeatable but with this fella you have plenty of pluses and  unknown potential and bred to stay and biggish prices and the right connections .

selection asterion forlange ...ballmore 20/1 and spuds race 25/1 ....1 point win each good luck .opinions encouraged input welcome .
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Report FOYLESWAR February 2, 2020 2:07 PM GMT
decent performance from the horse, a contender and improvement to come, half a mile or so extra  further wont harm
Report miltons sophie February 2, 2020 2:13 PM GMT
Nor will a switch to a right handed track. Ditto runner up. ML would be alright if there were no hurdles.
Report buddeliea February 2, 2020 2:24 PM GMT
Trainer says hes a 2 miler??
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! February 2, 2020 2:27 PM GMT
Owner got the fav already
It clocked the same time as the juvenile
Its a slow hoss

Report FOYLESWAR February 2, 2020 2:27 PM GMT
said hes a staying  chaser in the making a month or 2 back budd
Report FOYLESWAR February 2, 2020 2:28 PM GMT
i wouldnt mind a few slow uns like him
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! February 2, 2020 2:39 PM GMT
Report buddeliea February 2, 2020 2:41 PM GMT
yeh Foyles,he said he thought he was a 2m6/3m horse,and thinks now he got that wrong

Must admit to me he looked a stayer
Report FOYLESWAR February 2, 2020 3:09 PM GMT
fook !have him for supreme but only a token bet compared to ballymore and spuds
Report FOYLESWAR February 2, 2020 3:12 PM GMT
the way he put daylight between him and the runner up final stages suggested a step would suit ,but willie would know best , connections shiskin fav for supreme gives hope aterion goes to ballymore tho
Report FOYLESWAR February 2, 2020 3:13 PM GMT
step up ^^
Report miltons sophie February 2, 2020 3:19 PM GMT
I suspect connections of Shishkin would be happy enough to step up so all is not lost yet foyles. Will depend on the phone call between hendo and wpm
Report buddeliea February 2, 2020 3:20 PM GMT
Be interesting to see if they split Shiskin and AF,which I think is highly likely.
Hendo and Mullins will be trying to sway owners??
Report buddeliea February 2, 2020 3:23 PM GMT
Funny ol game!!
To me watching both horses it looks Shiskin supreme, AF Ballymore.
But could well be other way round.
Report FOYLESWAR February 2, 2020 3:24 PM GMT
makes sense to split them up a decent chance in both races, weather they do is another matter .
Report ENGLANDBARNES1 February 2, 2020 3:49 PM GMT
Mullins on rte said AF will now go to the Ballymore.
Personally I’d love to see him turn up in the supreme!
I thought it may need right handed, but only jumped once to the right!
Report FOYLESWAR February 2, 2020 3:53 PM GMT
was a good perfomance  pitched into the deep end after a bumper and novice hurdle into a grade 1 and plenty of room for improvement .
Report buddeliea February 2, 2020 3:54 PM GMT
So in the space of about 30 minutes trainer has said he runs in supreme and Ballymore!!
Report duffy February 2, 2020 3:55 PM GMT
The owners also have The Big Getaway and these two horses look very similar, TBG will presumably go up to 3 miles then.
Report buddeliea February 2, 2020 3:55 PM GMT
Well intimated supreme to be more accurate
Report FOYLESWAR February 2, 2020 3:59 PM GMT
we will see what happens ,connections will no doubt talk it over and and pic will be clearer in the next week or so .
Report ENGLANDBARNES1 February 2, 2020 4:00 PM GMT
Typical Mullins, clear as mud
Report miltons sophie February 2, 2020 4:34 PM GMT
England... I strongly recommend you watch the replay. You will then conclude it was many more times then once. If he does that in a 15 runner supreme he will be constantly bumping into other horses. Or he will have to post him wide and give away distance or potentially use too much petrol from the front as I suspect there will be plenty in there that will want a fast run race. Far from ideal imo
Report FOYLESWAR February 2, 2020 5:58 PM GMT
think this one can give envoi allen something to worry about if he goes ballymore . strong galloper and progressive ,
Report ENGLANDBARNES1 February 2, 2020 8:29 PM GMT
I must admit to watching Blue Sari for most of the race, but just watched it back and yes AF certainly did jump right.
I once laid Captain Chris to win the Arkle due to him notoriously jumping to the right, and it didn’t stop him winning.
I’m amazed it was run in the same time as the juvenile race as that seemed like a weak race.
Report miltons sophie February 2, 2020 8:42 PM GMT
Nice one ENGLAND . ... I only posted it because I didn’t want you to make a serious investment without all the facts. Now you have them I wish you luck. I also backed CC simply because I felt he had enough in hand despite. I think this was a weak race too. I think the runner up wanted to go right handed too and
despite jumping awfully the 3rd was still there with his chance. Conflated needs a lot further. For me there are loads of holes in the form. He is a nice horse no doubt but that form and the price simply don’t equate for. Best of luck if you chose to go in sir.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 2, 2020 9:16 PM GMT
WPM's previous winners of that Nov Hdl were no slouches either.....Devil
2020 - Asterion Forlonge
2019 - Klassical Dream
2017 - Bacardys
2016 - Bleu Et Rouge
2015 - Nichols Canyon
2014 - Vautour
2013 - Champagne Fever
1999 - Alexander Banquet
Report miltons sophie February 2, 2020 9:19 PM GMT
Yep can’t argue with the fact that the deloitte is the right race to win
Report FOYLESWAR February 3, 2020 3:29 PM GMT
shiskin declared for huntingdon mid week
Report ENGLANDBARNES1 February 3, 2020 5:57 PM GMT
Over 2m 3, hopefully a good sign to keep AF to the supreme.
Report miltons sophie February 3, 2020 6:21 PM GMT
Hendo thinks Shishkin is a 2 miler jockey not so sure
Report FOYLESWAR February 4, 2020 8:05 PM GMT
miltons i have noticed that quite a few seem to jump slightly  out to the right  for some reason at leopardstown chases and hurdles ,dont know why but a fair few do.
Report miltons sophie February 4, 2020 8:23 PM GMT
You could well be right and It certainly doesn’t seem to be putting many people off. For me it’s about risk and reward. Most people would assess my punting as being high risk. In over 20 years of the festival the shortest price I have ever taken about a horse was the 7-2 (I think)I took on Brave Inca to win the supreme so I am probably the last person on the planet to listen to when it comes to whether a short priced runner represents value.

I would say 90% of my bets are at double digit prices and I try and find horses where I believe the reward outweighs the risk. With this chap I see the exact opposite. I see risks but dont see the reward to justify taking them.
Report miltons sophie February 4, 2020 8:25 PM GMT
But know I am wrong far more often than I am right
Report penzance February 5, 2020 11:53 AM GMT
whoevers on this horse AP,I wouldn't worry
too much,he's won 2 hurdle races both on
left handed tracks.If he does get beat,it
will be because he aint good enough.People
trying to over complicate things.
Report miltons sophie February 5, 2020 2:39 PM GMT
You have missed the point. My posts were about risk and reward at his current price. Anybody on AP has a very different risk / reward ratio. I wouldn’t want to take the risk at his current price. For anybody on at big prices it is a fundamentally different scenario. So of course he has a better chance of winning than 20s or bigger but at his current price I wouldn’t want to back a horse in what could be a very competitive race with any doubt at all about whether he will jump right handed even if he has won on a left handed track (having had a tendency to jump to his right both times). Usually horses that jump to the right run their best races on right handed tracks so on a left handed track they need to have a little more in hand to win or do you consider this to be over complicating things.
Report duffy February 5, 2020 2:52 PM GMT
His jumping out to his right would be a huge concern for me, in the Supreme he is going to be racing quicker and this issue would have a cumulative effect through the race, every time it has happened he loses a little ground and is ridden away from the hurdle, maybe more important than that though is that it loses all momentum and the faster you're going the more accentuating that is going to be as he'll lose ground into the hurdle as he is adjusting himself and after the hurdle as he is being corrected.

The whole race ends up being one big stop start affair, he'll race prominently but as soon as this happens he'll have horses crowding him him it'll all end up with him unbalanced, against better horses going faster, it'll be a mess.

He may have the engine but he'd be a monster if he does because in a Grade 1 at the festival I can't see how he can afford to lose ground and momentum at every hurdle and still win, perhaps they can iron it out but if you haven't already got on, I wouldn't fancy doing so now personally.
Report paulo47 February 5, 2020 4:21 PM GMT
Slightly off topic , but if you want to see a horse cover distance by being out wide and jump right , and win - Watch Rule Supreme in the 2004 RSA . Only remember because it was our first year doing the trends and he came up , there were only two people in the members seats shouting . Perhaps a Ballymore plus .
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! February 19, 2020 6:01 PM GMT
Going for the supreme

Report differentdrum February 19, 2020 8:27 PM GMT
Commiserations to the original poster.

There was nothing in that Leopardstown run that should have suggested that he went for the Supreme. It was a Grade 2 field where only two counted and he was ridden like a stayer to beat another stayer - the second goes for the Ballymore. If they really thought he was a speed horse why didn't they just sit off the Gigginstown horse and in so doing have a much easier race. 

Owner will be hoping to win with Shishkin so Mullins doesn't end with too much egg on his face.

Second most illogical decision so far behind Envoi Allen not going Supreme.
Report FOYLESWAR February 23, 2020 5:57 PM GMT
cheers diffdrum never mind have covered myself in the supreme but as said not for as much , a bit of a let down and a boost from the graded race today the winner jason the militant  was about 90 lengths behind asterion f last time but mt leinster who was placed in same race was well beat today ,it did appear to have a hard race last time though .
Report FOYLESWAR March 5, 2020 9:12 AM GMT
this one into fav for the supreme on here now , should be improvement to come but the same with most of the field, should be a cracker to kick off the festival .
Report buddeliea March 5, 2020 9:16 AM GMT
Needs to improve his jumping on a left handed course.
Report FOYLESWAR March 5, 2020 9:33 AM GMT
yep needs to but a fair few seem to jump out to the right at leopardstown and hopefully willie will have taken steps to correct it .
Report buddeliea March 5, 2020 9:55 AM GMT
No doubt he would Foyles,but to back him at current prices is to me too much of a risk after watching his last race.
Report FOYLESWAR March 5, 2020 10:25 AM GMT
yes i agree with that bud i wouldnt back him at current price tbh . thankfully i have a few quid on at bigger prices ,would have suited my pocket much better  if he went spuds or ballymore but thgats life .
Report buddeliea March 5, 2020 3:34 PM GMT
Still in Ballymore Foyles
Report FOYLESWAR March 5, 2020 3:44 PM GMT
yeah budd think its just a precaution but who knows , if i (a big if )had 2 potential good uns i would split . a decent chance in each race and anything can happen . cant see em splitting though .
Report FOYLESWAR March 5, 2020 3:45 PM GMT
wonder what the weather is like at chelt ,in south london it has rained for the last 6 hours solid .
Report buddeliea March 5, 2020 3:52 PM GMT
Where theres  hope Foyles!!!

This rubbish weather came from the South West so I imagine Chelt must have got some mate.
Don't know though.
According to my weather app on phone,its a sunny day there tomorrow,dry Sunday, and then more rain next weekCry
Report buddeliea March 5, 2020 3:53 PM GMT
Sorry....dry Saturday not Sunday!!
Report FOYLESWAR March 5, 2020 4:04 PM GMT
hope it dont get heavy at festival ,should be ok drains well .
Report harry callaghan November 15, 2020 10:35 PM GMT
Looks like he’ll go left handed again says Mullins...after taking out half the field in the supreme other owners must be delighted
Report buddeliea November 16, 2020 6:18 AM GMT
Given the fact that he destroyed at least 2 horses chances in the Supreme,and is still jumping right handed this season,for me he should not be anywhere near Cheltenham.
If the trainer does want him to run there, i hope he tells his jockey to line up on the outside!!
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