Cheltenham Festival
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connections paid £290,000 at the chelt sales for this son of coastal way and 2 from 2 so far 1 bumper and a 2m easy hurdles win , holds supreme ,ballymore and spuds race entries at the festival. willie mullins said we will step him up in trip now he is a 3 mile chaser and to win that race over just short of 2 miles was very good ,when asked will you be easy on him this season and put him away willie said no we were easy on him last year we will go hard on him now and get him racing or words to that effect . open to any amount of improvement esp when going over a trip, he is a dark un and around 25s with the shops for the spuds and 20s the neptune .imo the spuds race would be the way to go but that race can bottom then and he may have a pop at envoi allen in the ballymore, wherever he goes he is worth following imo and i have taken the prices in both races . envoi may be unbeatable but with this fella you have plenty of pluses and unknown potential and bred to stay and biggish prices and the right connections .
selection asterion forlange ...ballmore 20/1 and spuds race 25/1 ....1 point win each good luck .opinions encouraged input welcome .
selection asterion forlange ...ballmore 20/1 and spuds race 25/1 ....1 point win each good luck .opinions encouraged input welcome .
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decent performance from the horse, a contender and improvement to come, half a mile or so extra further wont harm
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Nor will a switch to a right handed track. Ditto runner up. ML would be alright if there were no hurdles.
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Trainer says hes a 2 miler??
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Owner got the fav already
It clocked the same time as the juvenile Its a slow hoss  |
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said hes a staying chaser in the making a month or 2 back budd
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i wouldnt mind a few slow uns like him
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yeh Foyles,he said he thought he was a 2m6/3m horse,and thinks now he got that wrong
Must admit to me he looked a stayer |
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fook !have him for supreme but only a token bet compared to ballymore and spuds
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the way he put daylight between him and the runner up final stages suggested a step would suit ,but willie would know best , connections shiskin fav for supreme gives hope aterion goes to ballymore tho
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step up ^^
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I suspect connections of Shishkin would be happy enough to step up so all is not lost yet foyles. Will depend on the phone call between hendo and wpm
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Be interesting to see if they split Shiskin and AF,which I think is highly likely.
Hendo and Mullins will be trying to sway owners?? |
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Funny ol game!!
To me watching both horses it looks Shiskin supreme, AF Ballymore. But could well be other way round. |
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makes sense to split them up a decent chance in both races, weather they do is another matter .
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Mullins on rte said AF will now go to the Ballymore.
Personally I’d love to see him turn up in the supreme! I thought it may need right handed, but only jumped once to the right! |
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was a good perfomance pitched into the deep end after a bumper and novice hurdle into a grade 1 and plenty of room for improvement .
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So in the space of about 30 minutes trainer has said he runs in supreme and Ballymore!!
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The owners also have The Big Getaway and these two horses look very similar, TBG will presumably go up to 3 miles then.
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Well intimated supreme to be more accurate
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we will see what happens ,connections will no doubt talk it over and and pic will be clearer in the next week or so .
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Typical Mullins, clear as mud
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England... I strongly recommend you watch the replay. You will then conclude it was many more times then once. If he does that in a 15 runner supreme he will be constantly bumping into other horses. Or he will have to post him wide and give away distance or potentially use too much petrol from the front as I suspect there will be plenty in there that will want a fast run race. Far from ideal imo
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think this one can give envoi allen something to worry about if he goes ballymore . strong galloper and progressive ,
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I must admit to watching Blue Sari for most of the race, but just watched it back and yes AF certainly did jump right.
I once laid Captain Chris to win the Arkle due to him notoriously jumping to the right, and it didn’t stop him winning. I’m amazed it was run in the same time as the juvenile race as that seemed like a weak race. |
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Nice one ENGLAND . ... I only posted it because I didn’t want you to make a serious investment without all the facts. Now you have them I wish you luck. I also backed CC simply because I felt he had enough in hand despite. I think this was a weak race too. I think the runner up wanted to go right handed too and
despite jumping awfully the 3rd was still there with his chance. Conflated needs a lot further. For me there are loads of holes in the form. He is a nice horse no doubt but that form and the price simply don’t equate for. Best of luck if you chose to go in sir. |
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WPM's previous winners of that Nov Hdl were no slouches either.....
2020 - Asterion Forlonge 2019 - Klassical Dream 2017 - Bacardys 2016 - Bleu Et Rouge 2015 - Nichols Canyon 2014 - Vautour 2013 - Champagne Fever 1999 - Alexander Banquet |
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Yep can’t argue with the fact that the deloitte is the right race to win
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shiskin declared for huntingdon mid week
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Over 2m 3, hopefully a good sign to keep AF to the supreme.
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Hendo thinks Shishkin is a 2 miler jockey not so sure
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miltons i have noticed that quite a few seem to jump slightly out to the right for some reason at leopardstown chases and hurdles ,dont know why but a fair few do.
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You could well be right and It certainly doesn’t seem to be putting many people off. For me it’s about risk and reward. Most people would assess my punting as being high risk. In over 20 years of the festival the shortest price I have ever taken about a horse was the 7-2 (I think)I took on Brave Inca to win the supreme so I am probably the last person on the planet to listen to when it comes to whether a short priced runner represents value.
I would say 90% of my bets are at double digit prices and I try and find horses where I believe the reward outweighs the risk. With this chap I see the exact opposite. I see risks but dont see the reward to justify taking them. |
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But know I am wrong far more often than I am right
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whoevers on this horse AP,I wouldn't worry
too much,he's won 2 hurdle races both on left handed tracks.If he does get beat,it will be because he aint good enough.People trying to over complicate things. |
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You have missed the point. My posts were about risk and reward at his current price. Anybody on AP has a very different risk / reward ratio. I wouldn’t want to take the risk at his current price. For anybody on at big prices it is a fundamentally different scenario. So of course he has a better chance of winning than 20s or bigger but at his current price I wouldn’t want to back a horse in what could be a very competitive race with any doubt at all about whether he will jump right handed even if he has won on a left handed track (having had a tendency to jump to his right both times). Usually horses that jump to the right run their best races on right handed tracks so on a left handed track they need to have a little more in hand to win or do you consider this to be over complicating things.
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His jumping out to his right would be a huge concern for me, in the Supreme he is going to be racing quicker and this issue would have a cumulative effect through the race, every time it has happened he loses a little ground and is ridden away from the hurdle, maybe more important than that though is that it loses all momentum and the faster you're going the more accentuating that is going to be as he'll lose ground into the hurdle as he is adjusting himself and after the hurdle as he is being corrected.
The whole race ends up being one big stop start affair, he'll race prominently but as soon as this happens he'll have horses crowding him him it'll all end up with him unbalanced, against better horses going faster, it'll be a mess. He may have the engine but he'd be a monster if he does because in a Grade 1 at the festival I can't see how he can afford to lose ground and momentum at every hurdle and still win, perhaps they can iron it out but if you haven't already got on, I wouldn't fancy doing so now personally. |
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Slightly off topic , but if you want to see a horse cover distance by being out wide and jump right , and win - Watch Rule Supreme in the 2004 RSA . Only remember because it was our first year doing the trends and he came up , there were only two people in the members seats shouting . Perhaps a Ballymore plus .
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Going for the supreme
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