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Cheltenham Festival

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ashleigh
08 Jan 20 14:16
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Date Joined: 23 Aug 02
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prices available today,

champion hurdle
sharjah 12/1 koral
not so sleepy e/w 33/1 375,pp.

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Replies: 118
By:
ashleigh
When: 09 Jan 20 10:56
gold cup
native river e/w 20/1 spoils.
By:
miltons sophie
When: 09 Jan 20 11:24
Can’t believe this guy is still getting away with it. He has a formula that finds the horse and  THEN he finds the argument to justify..... which usually has holes big enough to drive a bus through. His selections are pretty easy to anticipate as are the basic arguments he uses to justify.

When the RP announced he was providing his AP selections for CH and GC I wrote Sharjah, NSS and NR on a piece of paper. If I can work it out anyone can.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 12 Jan 20 11:03
miltons sophie 09 Jan 20 11:24
When the RP announced he was providing his AP selections for CH and GC I wrote Sharjah, NSS and NR on a piece of paper. If I can work it out anyone can


Fantastic bit of aftertiming.Laugh

Given you have this great gift please tell us all what his selections will be for the Ryanair and Stayers.
By:
miltons sophie
When: 12 Jan 20 12:12
Well the only way I could avoid after timing is start a thread saying what I thought his selections might be before the event. Why would anybody be remotely interested in that.

Firstly he is all about what he considers value so you can eliminate short priced runners

Secondly where Cheltenham ante post is concerned he will try to avaoid a horse where there is a risk of the horse missing the festival or running in a different race unless the price is so generous it is worth the risk. He particularly likes it when a trainer has confirmed a specific race.

Thirdly he chooses a horse where in his mind there is an angle however spurious.

Fourthly he looks for horses that he feels have in some way been overlooked or underestimated. Sometimes this is because he thinks they are improving quicker than they are being given credit for and sometimes sticky patch (see final point)

Fifthly he usually highlights what he thinks is the most likely winner just to Cover his  **** but states at the prices he will look elsewhere

Finally he often looks for horses that have had a sticky patch that could come good when they meet their conditions again particulalrly if they are trained by a top trainer and have drifted to a price that justifies the risk.

I think his pick for the Ryanair would be riders on the storm. I think he will also like the angle of last years two placed horses as he will conclude that Frodon is not quite the horse that we was last year and the price differential between him and Aso and RTR is far too big. I think he will be tempted by Footpad because he will like the sticky patch angle as he was 7-2 fav for this last year but I think the rapid improvement of riders will just win the day.

The horse for stayers would be if the cap fits and if he goes for two he might get attracted to 20s on offer for pen hill or thistlecrack ( he might not be able to resist two previous winners being available at 20s and add in the price differential between pp and thistlecrack from last run)..I don’t know when he is giving stayers tips but could all change if one or more of the novice chasers has another blip.

There you are I have taken the bait and am there to be shot at.  Which many will undoubtedly do when I get it wrong. Obviously I don’t have a gift but guess his picks frequently. I am sure everyone on this forum is capable of seeing patterns in what he does. Some time ago TWO different bookmakers closed my account and advised me they had done so because I was backing too many of his selections way before they became public knowledge and assumed I was an associate of his so I admit this is a little personal. This was in the day when the markets used to really pay attention. They barely blink any more.
By:
irishone
When: 12 Jan 20 14:21
Feck me great post miltons
By:
miltons sophie
When: 12 Jan 20 15:13
Thanks Irish
By:
Hanx
When: 13 Jan 20 09:15
MS

I think what you've outlined there is the modus operandii for an ante-post tipster / journalist.

Honestly, what else would you expect him to do or how else would you expect him to operte given he's a value-based tipster / journalist?
By:
paulo47
When: 13 Jan 20 10:06
Am feeling guilty now .....
By:
impossible123
When: 13 Jan 20 10:12
OP, who are you referring too, please, out of interest? I do not pay attention to any pundit/journo. It's merely just out of interest, and possibly a talking point nearer the time of the race.
By:
miltons sophie
When: 13 Jan 20 12:27
Hanx

What else would I expect him to do. Nothing why should he......You miss my point . I am not blaming him. I am questioning the sanity of those still paying for the service all these years on and trying to put out there that everybody can do what he does so people that are waiting to hear what he has to say don’t have to because they can figure it out for themselves.

Now if it was me I think I would feel too guiltily to keep milking this after all these years and try and find a new way to add value. But that’s just me and I am weird like that. I think the vast majority would keep banking the cheque and fair play.

Paulo .... I couldn’t find a post of yours so don’t understand your post?
By:
miltons sophie
When: 13 Jan 20 12:36
actually i am sure that the Publication can evidence a spike in sales when he reveals his selections so it probably makes sense for them to. So let’s just leave it that I am trying to help people and leave it at that.
By:
Hanx
When: 13 Jan 20 13:39
Yeah fair point

A bit of work and understanding of subject matter required and  most should be able to come up with a plausible couple of selections.

I suppose if you're going to follow tipsters - ante-post or otherwise - it's a tacit admission your either an arber or you're bone idle.
By:
paulo47
When: 14 Jan 20 09:38
Sorry MS , as has been stated by you and others , its what we all do plus or minus a few things . It helps if we do it first !
By:
ashleigh
When: 14 Jan 20 16:47
m sophie, ts doing the champion chase in the paper tomorrow and the betfair hurdle on thursday.
can we have his selections before they are out?

good luck finding the betfair hurdle selections.Wink
By:
Hibore
When: 14 Jan 20 18:29
It was a good post and a good read by MS but maybe a little simplistic. I think you would struggle to find anyone on here who wouldn’t think ROTS or Footpad won’t be his selection for the Ryanair. They is very little left outside them of any quality or perceived improvement. That is not MS fault though and I agree with the reasoning.

The Stayers is not so straightforward. ITCF could be his selection as it’s the only horse outside Paisley that is going to run. The next 10 in the betting may go elsewhere so 8/1 ew might be good enough. However, Summerville boy might fit the bill at 25/1.

I’d be interested on MS thoughts on the Triumph, RSA, Ballymore, Marsh and Supreme as they are not as easy to work out using his/her formula.
By:
miltons sophie
When: 14 Jan 20 21:20
Summerville is a great shout and rookie mistake on my part . I covered the novice chaser back to hurdles angle generally in my post but simply forgot that of course he has already done it .... even more stupid because I have backed him
By:
miltons sophie
When: 14 Jan 20 21:26
Ok I typed  a whole bunch more and it hasn’t come through I have now lost the will to live.

Bottom line just got in from a 14 hour day totally cream crackered the post I lost took me ten times longer to type than I gave myself to come up with the selections.

Main pick cilaos emery fast improving second season chaser intended target could still represent value to him

2 big price left field alternatives

1) dynamite dollars .... excellent record fresh trainer made bullish comments said intended target fast improving novice last year short for arkle before set back he may thing 33 represents value

2) duc de genevres...... this could meet the rough patch angle. Not that long ago was 8s career best performance was course track and distance. Possibility of soft ground fast run 2 miles etc etc  could to him now represent value.

Remember this is me trying to be him not me being me
By:
miltons sophie
When: 14 Jan 20 21:28
I will probably wake up in the morning and think what planet was I on but hey I have tried to enter into the spirit of things
By:
miltons sophie
When: 14 Jan 20 21:49
So I get the online rp which comes through at 9 and have just downloaded so got it completely wrong. I genuinely didn’t  think he would risk APT in case he ran in the Ryanair. Two biggies didn’t even get a mention so scored 0/10.

Actually  before sending my post I have just read the  article and I don’t think CE would have been a million miles off of his choice had he not taken the APT different race risk so I’m giving myself 1/10
By:
Hibore
When: 14 Jan 20 22:26
Don’t beat yourself up. I would make ROTS odds on to be the selection in Ryanair now APT is out the running Grin
I think APT will run in the Champion unless the ground is quick, he’s a similar type to Defi and Altior. Stamina seems at a premium these days rather than the speed types when they used to go steady for the first half of the race.

What is Tom’s next race he’s analysing?
By:
miltons sophie
When: 15 Jan 20 07:11
Well he went for a fast improving second season chaser just not the one with the guaranteed target
By:
miltons sophie
When: 15 Jan 20 07:11
It’s done it again to me I typed lines of post and just sent the first line it’s driving me round the bend
By:
miltons sophie
When: 15 Jan 20 07:14
So here we go again

As an aside I think he is completely wrong when he says APT has much better form than CE. When ballyoising is on a going day jumping for fun he is a very hard horse to beat. I have no doubt he was on a going day lto and actually outjumped CE and yet CE just swept him away. I think he is incorrectly undervaluing that form. I do agree that the APT from is strong.
By:
miltons sophie
When: 15 Jan 20 07:18
Part 76

Btw something for consideration

1) he may post on this forum (unlikely)
2) he may observe on this forum (likely)
3) he mak have a friend or acquaintance on this forum who is keeping him updated on the thread (highly likely)

My intention is not to compromise the process. I just want people to recognise they can do what he does and trust their own knowledge and skill and not be unduly influenced.
By:
miltons sophie
When: 15 Jan 20 07:22
Part 812

Don’t know hat race he is doing next. Ironically the only notice I have taken of him lately is when  I get myself in a lather on a Saturday when he and his twin brother give 5 or so horses each and almost always share two and sometimes more..... seriously

I mentioned in a post earlier in thread that if I were he I would look to add value in a different way by now. Hopefully I will remember to expand on this later in relation to him putting up apt as his selection because I Think there are missed opportunities to help punters.
By:
ashleigh
When: 15 Jan 20 07:23
champion chase

a plus tard 10/1 billys, 6/1 bf,cry bet NRNB,
By:
ashleigh
When: 22 Jan 20 07:15
stayers hurdle

apple's jade 14/1 pp
summerville boy e/w 16/1 billys,koral.
By:
miltons sophie
When: 22 Jan 20 08:10
Most refreshing for me was the fact that a number of posters explored the novice chaser back to hurdles angle and what a shout from Hibore as soon as he said it you just knew it was a great call. Cleeve  really fascinating race. pP and ITCF missed one or two engagements so I just wonder if SB might be able to take advantage Saturday??? I think he will stay and stay well as long as he settles.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 23 Jan 20 16:59

Jan 22, 2020 -- 1:15AM, ashleigh wrote:


stayers hurdle  apple's jade 14/1 pp summerville boy e/w 16/1 billys,koral.


I'm confused! Segal put Summerville Boy up at 25/1 (available with 4 different firms according to the antepost grid accompanying the Pricewise preview).

He's no bigger than 16/1 now but am I also led to believe that SB had shortened to 16/1 by 07.15 on the morning of publication? In which case, what is the point of including the grid in the print version of the paper?

Either way, it seems a ludicrous overreaction to a tip for a race 7 weeks away.

Incidentally, Segal tipped Summerville Boy for the Ladbrokes Trophy 2-3 months ago (despite quotes from his trainer on the adjacent page casting real doubt about whether he'd even run in the race). Perhaps he's just going to keep tipping him antepost until he actually wins one.

In fairness I can see where he's coming from this time but Summerville Boy would n't even be guaranteed to uphold the Relkeel finishing positions with William Henry on Saturday - WH gets a 6lb pull in the weights and should, theoretically at least, come on for his first run of the season (although maybe he does n't really want to go 3 miles).

By:
Deptford
When: 23 Jan 20 18:36
If he tipped Apples Jade he should be put in prison.
By:
ashleigh
When: 24 Jan 20 10:36
reaseheath, decided to put up this thread of ts ante-post cheltenham and put up prices only with the big firms available on the day the paper comes out, i realise prices maybe there the night before but most are not. the best price on summerville boy on the morning was 16/1, not even any 20/1.

ts contradicts himself when on a saturday he puts all selections up at sp because prices are not held and traded all the time they come out, yet if one the cheltenham selections wins he will claim it at the best price, when the price was likely non existent.

hope this clarifies things.
By:
ashleigh
When: 29 Jan 20 12:56
ts on the arkle 
bapaume 12/1 bf,koral,billys,laddies,pp.
brewin'upastorm 14/1 bf,koral,pp.

rsa tomorrow.
By:
ashleigh
When: 30 Jan 20 12:14
rsa
sam brown 18/1 billys
copperhead e/w 33/1 billys
By:
ashleigh
When: 05 Feb 20 12:26
ts on the supreme
captain guiness 16/1 billys,pp.
abacadabras 11/2 billys,pp.

tomorrow the ballymore.
By:
ashleigh
When: 06 Feb 20 11:21
ballymore
the big getaway 12/1 bf,billys,laddies,pp.
the big breakaway 14/1 laddies.
By:
differentdrum
When: 06 Feb 20 19:03
Strikes me that his tips this year are desperate even by his lowly standards. Must be quite a relief when his pin doesn't land on one of your bets.
By:
Deptford
When: 06 Feb 20 19:25
Anyone actually give a flying fook what he tips?
By:
ashleigh
When: 13 Feb 20 13:00
ts on the ryanair
frodon 7/1 billys.
By:
blueton
When: 15 Feb 20 06:58
thx ash,,,keep em comin,,,never understand the critics,,,why bother reading the posts just to moan...
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