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Cheltenham Festival
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These 76 comments are related to the topic:
If They Are Considering The Champion For Envoi Allen Then Why Are They Targeting The Ballymore?
If They Are Considering The Champion For Envoi Allen Then Why Are They Targeting The Ballymore?
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I'm not so sure Arsenal, approaching the final flight he cocked his jaw a bit and late on the gap suddenly lengthened between the two horses that we assume was more down to EA being strong, but something doesn't look quite right to me, I didn't trust Abas effort late on in that race myself and couldn't have him coming up the hill strong enough, I do appreciate how strong the form of that race looks though.
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A few thoughts re Shishkin. And I will declare significant pocket interest with my first bet being placed March 2019 for this race. I do not have any inside knowledge but there are a few clues that indicate that the trainer has approached this horse and this race a little differently than he sometimes does with his novice hurdlers. Because this is a horse I have had on my mind for a long time I have been on alert for any data points. Despite beating only trees in his bumper I was intrigued that he was I think his only horse in the very early BV ante post market. Now clearly winning his bumper during Cheltenham week would have influenced this but as far as I can recall this remained the case for a number of months. He then gave the horse a very positive shout in his stable tour and indicated that he had this race in mind for him. This for me was significant as it indicated a target and plan that had been thought many months ahead. When he fell fto it presented the real acid test of his intention. This gave him every opportunity to change track and look to one of his other novices to step up and leave Shishkin as more of a longer term project. So when he came out again i took it as a sign that he still had this target in mind. There was then a nervous wait to see if he would run again as it is very rare that a supreme winner does so after just one completed start. When it became clear he was very keen to get him more experience and different entries started appearing then for me it was a loud and clear message that he wasn’t mucking about with this one.
The form against Shan blue is interesting. I thought Shan blue travelled like the best horse in the race in his grade 2 and got out stayed on testing ground by an out and out stayer and before the Huntingdon race I thought the trip and track and slightly bettter ground would present a perfect set of conditions for SB and he would put up a decent test. He was 8s the night before and finished 3s which suggests a lot of stable confidence and DS has talked him up on more than one occasion so I believe the form may be a little better than perhaps it looks on face value. Does he now represent value of course not but I think there are reasons to believe the trainer is approaching him more like an altior than a sprinter for this race. There is much about my post that can be shot holes at I get that but it’s the combination of science and art that is often needed and particularly so when you are trying to make money from this game with no inside knowledge. |
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It's only a game, and horses have a humbling effect on punters and followers. And, I'd been at the receiving end more times I cared to remember.
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Interesting analysis miltons.
You missed the fact that he ran at inch a very tight undulating p2p course in cork. He was dropped.in, couldnt jump and although eventually open he never had enough time to get the gallop going. Nextstop big galoping track lingstown in wexford well drained and wins. Since then kempton, newbury and huntingdon. All flat galloping tracks ..... Cheltenham different gravy , soz . |
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Well anything is possible in this game,but personally I would not be put off backing the horse because of one point to point performance on his first ever run.
Sounds a bit like clutching at straws to me. |
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Loads of horses get stuck like that at inch
Since then though He could have run at sandown, fontwell or even cheltenham To show he could handle it Instead hendo has stuck to flat galloping tracks Against what ? |
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You know as well as the rest of us how Hendo likes to give his novice hurdlers as easy prep as is possible.
Shishkin should be fine,but another thing we know, until a horse actually runs at Chelt, we don't know for sure. Theres been fistfuls of winners at Chelt over the years having their first run there. Not back a horse cos of price, going, or one simply fancies another......fair enough. Not back a horse cos not ran at Chelt,or cos of one performance in a PTP at Cork on his first ever run.....sheer folly imo. |
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Hendo poor record
Horse has beaten nothing Horse needs a galloping track Big straws ....horse may not even run |
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Doth one protest too much
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?
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Rattling off reasons why he won't win the supreme when deep down you know he might.
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Who do you fancy then irish?
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good support for asterion forlangeno suprise to me if he went off fav for this .
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11\4 is not a bet for me , wouldnt take treble that to be honest. Why is he still in ballymore betting ? Hes entered for both, why does hendo need the alternative ? My selection will be under 25\1 , and will be irish trained duffy. Theres a few to come out yet .
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sorry meant that post for supreme thread
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Fair enough about the price,I understand that .
You would have to ask Hendo for answers to those questions.........maybe the owners are thinking of all options and one would be to split S and AF. Anything is possible, but the Ballymore has never been mentioned as far as I know.. My point is I don't see the PTP as a reason not to back S,and I don't see Hendos record in the race or the fact he's not run at Cheltenham or similar to not back him either. |
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"But the ballymore has never been mentioned as far as I know"
....and that Budd is where your argument dies |
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i take it that you have still got the hump over the potato famine
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Why is that Irish?
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Because henderson has said hes a ballymore horse, but the problem is gordons got a better one but he aint sure how good willies is. Shiskin ?
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Well care to share that quote from Hendo.
all ive heard him say is Shiskin goes supreme. |
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Irish I believe you are mistaken
It was nico that mentioned he could go up in trip not hendo. Trainer has always maintained supreme is his race as far as I know. I think you have made your view very clear hendo wont win the supreme and an irish trained horse will. Gl to you. |
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Feb 19th 2020
Shishkin you would like to think was one of our best chances and he has looked very good so far and is a genuine two-miler. The Supreme is a nice race to win if you can and it gets the ball rolling and the pressures off a bit. I think he is very good, and he has looked good in his bumper and in two novice hurdles he looked very efficient. He has been visually impressive in all he does, and he doesn’t seem to lack experience and races very professionally. You can press a button on him, and it works. The track should be fine for him – with those sort of horses they are great movers and they have great balance and it shouldn’t bother him. |
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to be fair after his first win henderson did say the ballymore could be a possibility but after winning at huntingdon he did say it was the supreme,if you look at the quotes in the racingpost
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Not only that Gazo he went on Racing T V in an interview and said it ! Yes you are right it was after that race at Newbury, but since then you see, other challengers have emerged and he is trying to play the same game as the other two. Not that its a bad thing.... Willie is exactly the same , he manipulates the press.
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As for you Budd .... you are well capable of sharing quotes from hendo .... where have I heard this before ?
“[Shishkin] is a chaser in the making to be honest, I’m not saying he’s another Altior but he’s an Altior type of horse. He’s got a lot of speed and a lot of scope. He’s a good-looking, big, chasing-type of animal that we rather like.” Oh yes ...your posts "Personally I see a likeness with Altior as a novice,and I would not be at all surprised if Shishkin does a similar job to this field as Altior did to his." As I said...Hendo well capable of manipulating the media and Budd |
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https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/horse-racing/nicky-henderson-suggests-shiskin-want-21285045
that should do it for you Budd ! |
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Apologies my post was ambiguous. The ballymore came into the picture because nico came back after Newbury and said the horse could go up in trip. Subsequent quotes from hendo concerning the ballymore were triggered by that data point not his direct view. Thank goodness we don’t have long to wait.
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Irish... the daily mirror quote was also available in other places and was as a direct result of trainer receiving and processing feedback from the jockey. I think hendo was open minded at that time but to my knowledge never said he was favouring the ballymore. There were other quotes prior to the Huntingdon race that suggested he still thought supreme but nico thought a step up might work. Once the Huntingdon race was done Hendo was 100% supreme and nicos sound bite was archived.
I haven’t seen anything since Huntingdon that suggest anything other than 100% supreme. But with the owner situation and the fact we are dealing with hendo and wpm you can never say never. Like I say thankfully we don’t have long to wait now. |
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So i agree with his trainer, so what??!!!
His performance at Huntingdon reminded me of Altiors at Kempton before the Supreme. That was my observation. He just to me looks a a similar type, and like Altior will be ready and tougn enough for the Supreme. And like Altior i expect him to go chasing next Season. Its nice to see Trainer agrees, but watching the horse i would think it fairly straightforward decision anyway. |
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Thanks for the quote, i missed that one.
But its a month before the one i quoted earlier, and came before Huntingdon. Thanks anyway though. As Miltons intimates and i also said earlier, the owners may have a big say as they have two currently heading the betting in the Supreme, and may get them seperated. But this will be them, and not Hendo. |
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Budd ... "So i agree with his trainer"
Budd ..."Its nice to see Trainer agrees" ....(with you ?) PMSL  |
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Fair enough i give you that. |
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Still nice to know that Nicky is thinking the same as an expert such as i !!
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If you cant laugh at yourself ...
Who can you laugh at ? |
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Miltons
I am not mistaken, you are though Read the above article Its hendo going on about the ballymore...... Not nico So henderson did mention the ballymore and it doesnt matter if it was off advice from the.jockey , you sir , were wrong. As i said before get your facts straight ! |
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Blimey irish u r relentless. I never said he never mentioned the Ballymore I just meant you were mistaken to think he said categorically he was a Ballymore horse. It was just I thought the wording of your 9.25 post was too categoric. I am happy to accept once again I was wrong and good luck in the race.
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