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Cheltenham Festival
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02 Jan 20
10:38
Joined:
Date Joined:
05 Oct 11
It clearly makes no sense as using that train of thought the Ballymore would be the third option. If you think he can win the Champion Hurdle then he surely dots up in a Supreme. That should be the end of the thought process.
Gordon Elliott seems to have a huge struggle with logical thinking. He has never explained why there is any need to step him up in trip when he is already the best of the novices at two miles. He might be better at two and a half miles but at the moment he doesn't need to be. There is no obvious opposition in either division. It can't be about picking an easier race. That's what his opponents should be thinking about.
Gordon Elliott seems to have a huge struggle with logical thinking. He has never explained why there is any need to step him up in trip when he is already the best of the novices at two miles. He might be better at two and a half miles but at the moment he doesn't need to be. There is no obvious opposition in either division. It can't be about picking an easier race. That's what his opponents should be thinking about.
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Replies: 76
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Is this another differentdrum know better than Gordon Elliot thread?!
I dont think GE is considering the CH with the horse for a second. He has the two best novices in Ireland in Abacadabras and EA and you think he should run them against each other in the Supreme? It makes perfect sense to step EA up at the weekend to see how he fares and see if they are proved right that he will look even better. If he doesnt stay, then they can bring him back to 2m. If he does, they can have the fav for both the Supreme and the Ballymore and win both. If they see the horse as a future GC runner in time, it makes perfect sense to step him out in trip. |
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i wouldnt and havent written off andy dufresne it may have looked a dissapointing run last time as he was expected to hose up going by the betting but he may have just been beaten by a very good un with more exp over a trip . a drop back to 2m may well be an option 30s plus on here .
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Foyles the SNH has been the plan for a long time now for AD, I must admit I haven't heard anything since his loss but if he is to run anywhere in March that was the favoured race.
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thanks gutty !
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Definite weakness in the Ballymore price today. Red all over Oddschecker and no obvious support in other markets. Any whispers?
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He appears weak but you've got to factor in that in recent weeks the Ballymore looks to be getting a potentially stronger and deeper race, if all the horses that IMO run in the race that suits them best then the Ballymore would be much stronger than the Supreme in terms of depth of quality.
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I think the main reason the price of Envoi Allen has not contracted is likely due to the present state of the ground ie soft, and a possible chance he'd be rerouted to The Supreme. If so, the ground The Supreme could become more competitive race than even now with Envoi Allen in it.
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It seenms to have become a tactical battle between gordon and willie. The latter publicly stated envoi was the best novice in the british isles, but gordon doesnt listen, he is looking for signs that willie has got something that has improved out of all recognition. They will no doubt have a chat and you wont see AF or EA in a battle at all.
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Personally would love to see EA and Shishkin in the same race,but I think both will stick to the races they are fav for.
I do wonder about AF being separated from Shishkin but don't like they are that bothered taking each other on. Whatever happens both races are fascinating and look high quality to me. I think both races will throw up some gooduns going forward. The AB looks good as well. Good year for the novices it looks to me. |
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Shiskin ?
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Don't even try to make any sense out of him Budd
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Shiskin ? The favourite !
Not for me Trainer has a terrible record in the race. One winner in 28 years ? |
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Ah I see,you don't think he should be fav,fair enough .
Hendo is very much a trainer for the future with his horses,hence his record in the race,he's quiet easy on his novice hurdlers. He's had a lot of placed horses in recent years and managed to get horses like sprinter Sacre beaten in the race, so you are right to point out his record. Personally I see a likeness with Altior as a novice,and I would not be at all surprised if Shishkin does a similar job to this field as Altior did to his. |
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Just to add.......if Chantry House turns up in the Suoreme,I think he's one that could scupper that.
Think he's another serious horse,and I'm hoping he goes Ballymore. Could see a Hendo double,although the Ballymore to me looks a lot tougher. |
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Well only two trainers have had more than one winner since 1992 and one of them doesn’t have a contender so I guess that’s all sorted then.
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Should have said with a runner didn’t mean to upset anybody with loyalties to Pat Flynn
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 Must admit i had not looked at that, i just knew of Hendos record in the race, having had this sort of conversation on here before re Hendo and the novice hurdle races at the festival.. |
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Whats he beat lads ?
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Miltons get your facts straight, noel meade, nichols , willie and pat flynn all won it more than henderson
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henderson has won it three times,not bad for such a competitive race
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Since 1992 Hendo has won the race twice, same as Nicholls, Meade and Flynn.
Only Mullins has won more in that time. Thats according to the list that i have just looked at. |
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Whats he beat lads?
Is he priced up as fav on what hes beat, or is he priced on the impression he has given those that determine his odds and those that have backed him? I think the latter. |
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Yep 28 years won it twice
I STAND CORRECTED 0nce in 27years and 11 months and 15 days ...ish ! |
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its certainly the latter that makes me think he should be fav.
I only wish i had nice odds on him,but alas i dont. Fiddler is the one i have nice prices,so i have hope for the race. Shishkin is in a few multiples and probably a few more to come. |
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So you have a trainer who rarely wins the race
Up against trainers that have won it plenty of times You have a horse that has given the impression Against other horses that aint all that So why wouldnt anyone question shiskin ? |
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apart from mullins which trainer has won it plenty of times
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Well one trainer has won it plenty of times.
Anyone can question Shishkin, and i often question Favs. You are questioning why hes fav, i am trying to work out the answer. Its difficult with novices, and its unserstandable to simply go with form you think is best and just make that horse fav. Also one can watch a race or two and form an opinion of a horse visually and what he could do in the Supreme. After all Supreme winners dont always face Grade 1 oppostion on the road to the Supreme. |
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Somethimg has the bookies wary of him....you got any ideas?
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Trainers that have won it plenty of times..I said
Mullins, elliot, nichols, meade won it collectively about ten times since the start of the century, ALL have entries this year When it comes to this race Hendersons record aint all that |
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so henderson's record is poor because he hasnt won it more than those trainers put together ?
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He has the joint 2nd best record in the race since 1992. So his aint all that record, is the same as Nicholls and Meade, and better than Elliotts.. So basically, only Mullins has a record that is all that. |
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Should be more though, with some iof the talent hes had, and probably would if he trained them differntly as novices.
But a lot of those have gone on to have much success and maybe appreciated not having the gun put to their head as novices. Its the way he trains. Altior was a different sort as a novice to say Sprinter, and i see a likeness with Shishkin......visually. |
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I am still questioning the credentials of the horse
...and that of the trainer in this event. The horse hasnt beaten much and the trainer doesnt have a great record in this event either. So why would anyone question , (like its a crime against the forums doctrine of divine revelations) , my original question mark against the horse ? |
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Well the trainer has proved he can train a horse for this, if its ready, as he has won the race in recent years.
Yes you can question the horse, i expect others are. Have you an answer to my question as to having any ideas as to why the bookies are wary of Shishkin ? as the prices since his last run suggest. |
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Don't think Chantry House jumps well enough for a Supreme, he doesn't flick through the top, he spends a little longer in the air, I've noticed Geraghty nudging him away from a few hurdles on occasions, Shiskin is a much more speedier hurdler, Abas, has a dodgy attitude, his head carriage was horrible when brought under pressure in the bumper, fiddler will get outpaced and wants the longer race, AF jumps out to his right that will cost him ground and momentum if he runs.
In essence I think there are horses in this race that should be in the longer race, I think Shiskin is a powerful traveller, slick jumper and strong stayer and pacey at the trip. |
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Yep, pretty much how I would describe him.
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Shishkin and Chantry House = Altior and Buveur D'Air. For instance, the former are strong travellers, and can quicken, the latter less pacy but stays further.
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Duffy I'd agree with you regarding the head carriage last year the horse seemed very green & a bit of a monkey.
That being said we haven't seen it this season so I'd be wary using that as a reason to be against him. For me the Envoi Allen/Abracadabras form is rock solid & the best in Ireland by far at the minute. |