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Cheltenham Festival
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These 116 comments are related to the topic:
Gold Cup - who stays the trip ?
Gold Cup - who stays the trip ?
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Replies: 116
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In my opinion there are only 4 or 5 horses that can win at this stage. Using potential for the younger horses and proven form for the older ones this year.
Al Boum Photo - no value at this stage. Unlikely to win back to back on the stats. Form of GC is shocking but time was good. Lostintranslation - potential is there but concerning run in KG Santini - must improve on return to galloping track. Ground will need to be soft to show best form. Likeliest winner on testing ground. Delta Work - needs to step on again from Saville win. Improvement likely on form in RSA. Native River - was never travelling last year and did amazing to get so close in the end. I think he’ll finish ahead of ABP and is ew value. Can’t have Kemboy, CDO, PP or Monalee. |
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Lostintranslation looks like going to Newbury things will be a bit clearer then .
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Aintree? Beating a non-entity? Had his chance, and possibly suffering the same effect as Might Bite after winning; on the downgrade; history.
The "ultra-soft" prep of ABP does not inspire confidence backing him at 5/1. Maybe his trainer knows too; Walsh chose him (fav) over ABP (2nd fav) at Punchestown. But for that £1m bonus running at Kempton in the King George would not have been on the agenda for Lostintranslation, I firmly believe. Very possibly a blessing-in-disguise (Don Cossack went out to 12/1 with the Tote after falling) as a doubling in his price has since prevailed. |
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Is that the same non entity as the one who won a Sandown grade two at the end of last season and won the grade one Kauto Star as a novice ,ran 2nd in this seasons Galway plate carrying top weight and ran a cracker of 163 in a ascot handicap ?
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You compare him to the way might bite has gone these are the facts since his gold cup win
2 nd in a Betfair Chase 3 rd in a King George 4 th in a gold cup beaten only 9 lengths Won 33 lengths at Aintree Might bite Won Aintree Last of 5 Betfair Chase 7th of 10 King George Pulled up gold cup Unseated Aintree Pulled up Cheltenham |
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Yes. His form has been diabolical this season. Maybe the over-exertion of last season has taken its toil. Also, there is a massive gulf between Gold Cup and others including Grade 2; beating 15l and 27l this season. Another horse in regress perhaps.
It is not the race a horse runs in or wins, but against what company or calibre of horses, I firmly believe. |
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Native River is a Gold Cup winner on the decline similarly, Frodon who has performed a smidgeon of his last year potential.
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thats the one foxy
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Hello foyleswar it was only the other day he completely disregarded note book at leopardstown
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Native River was never “right” last season. Maybe following the hard race in the Gold Cup.
But he looked full of beans at Aintree which bodes well for this season. Can’t have Lost taking on Native at Newbury in the Denman. Colin won’t do that. |
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Nobody thought he would run thistlecrack against cue card at Kempton ,if lostintranslation runs before the gold cup it will be at Newbury .
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can't see how the Gold Cup form is shocking,myself.
One horse behind him is a dual King George winner. Native River also won since,Bristol De Mai and Elegant Escape both run well in defeat. Don't think Al Boum Photo is being given the credit he deserves. |
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It's not shocking.
Some of the stuff I am reading re thie Gold Cup this year is shocking though!! |
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Correct Penzance
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al boum photo a worthy fav no disputing that and can see the attraction ,what puts me off slightly apart from the price he is now is the fact he will be attempting to retain the gold cup as history proves its difficult .
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ABP looked fine the other day and I thought he jumped really well,at times in the past I have not always thought that.
He's obviously suited to course and distance,and if as I think , his jumping has improved then for me he's the one to beat. Native River is another that's obviously suited to course and distance,and at 20/1 I can see the attraction,cos if conditions on the day suit him he ain't a 20/1 shot imo. |
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Looks like lostintranslation will go straight to the gold cup with probable racecourse gallop the horse has had a flu jab whilst an outing in next months denman Chase was mooted he is now unlikely to run before the gold cup.
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That's a shame. The greed for that £1m bonus has derailed his prep for the biggest prize in National Hunt racing. I hope this is a lesson to connections of serious future Blue Riband participants.
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That’s a difficult one impossible the carrot was put there to improve the quality of the first two legs although hardly ever did the King George disappoint ,owners need prize money but yes on this occasion it seems to have hindered his chances of winning the gold cup ,it would take a brave person to back him now with the King George been his last run,that said he is in very good hands.
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It was the general consensus the King George at Kempton could be too sharp a distance and track for Lostintranslation. I also think he'd quite a hard race when beating BDM the Haydock specialist in the Betfair Chase.
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Yes I think the Haydock race was a bit tougher than most thought.
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The Ascot race has left a mark on both Cyrname and Altior as well apparently. The same thing could happen to Clan des Obeaux as the ground was very testing in the straight at Kempton. They could recover by March but Native River is looking more and more like the best of the GB contenders.
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al boum photo
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Thistlecrack will miss the Festival due to a recurring injury.
What's about Clan Des Obeaux (CDO) should not be underestimated in the Gold Cup, according to the Racing Post today? CDO won the King George just as comfortably in 2018 beating Thistlecrack as last year, and clearly ran-out-of puff despite going well 1 out in the Gold Cup last year. I think it's extremely unlikely his stamina will improve this year either. A bookie's mouthpiece being friendly to the bookies perhaps. |
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Shame about thistlecrack connections have been very brave with the horse deserved a bit more luck along the way.
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Yes, that is probably the last we will see of Thistlecrack at Group 1 level. I do believe that CDO could be improving at just 8yo.
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Big blow for native river supporters if Johnson misses the festival
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Great point. Wonder if he’s a David bass sort of horse.
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Johnson was the making of the horse hen he rode him at Aintree.
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Bass would be a completely different type of rider who always presents a horse perfectly at a fence in my opinion.
I suppose Coleman would be the most similar to johnson to the way he can bully a horse a long during a race. |
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Fair enough ... I thought likely mistakenly he had a reputation for being a very assertive, positive on the front foot kind of jockey whereas you are describing almost the opposite so I couldn’t have got that more wrong.
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STD, riding well at the moment, super sub in king george why not the GC, would be an ideal all action jockey for the horse.
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It may just be old eyes tbh milton, but bass appears to get after the horse just before a fence, which they nearly always meet on a perfect stride, and then leaves them alone again.
I really like his style so hope you are correct as it would nice for him to get a few more decent rides. |
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STD messed up on Al Dancer though.
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Who stays the trip ?
Anything that is entered What are you saying Loads of trainers out there Have no clue if their horses stay or not ? Guessing as to wether or not they stay ? Really ? |
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Yes, really.
I think all but Mr Whitaker had won over 3 miles or more last week in the Cotswold. Slate House won grade 1 around Kempton and De Rasher Hennessy. Cheltenham 3 mile + races at the highest level at pace need a certain type of horse. Well we can put a line through everything in that race bar Santini and BDM. Today’s race is more a speed test rather than stamina, the facts are the time of the race is pretty much the same as Ryanair. Percy and Kemboy could take each other on which would probably help Delta. He looks the most likely strong stayer out of the trio. |
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I’m expecting Percy to beat Delta in a match bet due to a more prominent ride today.
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Percy and Kemboy join my list of horses that won’t stay. Delta has their measure twice now.
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Yep,agree with that.
This is going to be a proper race where the winner is going to need to get home really well. NR,ABP,DW and SANT. I will be surprised if one of them don't win. Although 3 of them are in the top of the betting |
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Percy just can't go the pace in the middle of the race at that level which means he has used his petrol before the last fence. I think he needs 4 miles!
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