Supreme Novices

Impressed with Mr Coffey yesterday,liked that a lot.
66 long gone,but 25 is available and I think that could be value.

Agree and glowing praise from the trainer afterwards. I am not saying he is the next sprinter but I think trainer is going to mind him this season like he did sprinter who managed to get beat in a supreme. Also most supreme winners have a lot more experience than this fella only his second run yesterday. But for me the ability is right up there and the question marks are why you can get 25 and not half the price. Be fascinating to see where and how quickly we see him again as that will tell us whether the supreme is likely or not. If he wins again in 4-6 weeks expect his price to halve.

I also wonder whether the original plan was for Shishkin and Chantry House to be stables cheltenham novices with MC a slow burner this year and whether that has changed with Shishkin and MC flip flopping because of Shishkin fall. Shishkin not yet entered again so perhaps they are now saving him for next year. The next few weeks should tell us a lot

Another impressive performance from Fiddlerontheroof at Sandown........but will it be the supreme for him.......I hope so!!

After today I would run Envoi in this or Champion.

The way connections are talking,iand the prices on the two races,it seems pretty clear to me that EA plan is to run in the  Ballymore.
If that is the case I can see a big field in the Supreme and a smaller field in the Balllymore.
Really not sure which form from both sides of the sea will prove to be telling at Cheltenham,but for sure their are some nice prices available in the Supreme.

That wont win Supreme.

They be mental not run EA, be a shoe in.

I think the win of Andy Dufresne has cemented the form of Abacadabras for this race. The former was easily beaten by Latest Exhibition who in turn was also easily beaten by Abacadbras.

But Envoi Allen easily beat Abacadabras - both trained by Elliot for different owner - Cheveley Park and Gigginstown respectively. No doubt they will be separated; one for the Ballymore, the other Supreme.

Elliot say no problem Andy go up in trip for Chelt.

If the market looks roughly as it is now Abacadabra's is going to be a fav that the books will be getting after on the day. He seems to be in his elevated position primarily through his run behind EA, as good as it appears we know that EA wins by these narrowish margins but appears to have more in hand, he certainly did on this day and appeared very strong at the line.

Abas last win was devalued as his market rival didn't show up and the time before that he beat a stayer, more concerning than all of that though is the fact this horse has a horrible head carriage when brought under pressure, you see it a little in his last race late on where there is a suggestion that he isn't putting it all in, but really noticeable are the two times when this horse has been brought under real pressure.

Against EA his head came up and he wasn't doing much late on, you could also suggest that that apparent spurt that EA had late on might have had something to do with the 2nd's reluctance. The bumper was really quite damning, turning in Abacadabras was travelling as well as anything but when brought under pressure he clearly cocked his jaw and was a weak finisher, if he comes up the hill in March in the same manner he wins nothing, he's a poor price for the Supreme.

Yep ^ I am convinced EA runs in this, if he run Andy in Ballymore, JP also got Chantry House who I fancy for that, had a token punt on EA for Supreme at 7/1, if not run, no matter.

I believe the ultimate goal of Envoi Allen is the Gold Cup thus it makes more sense to run him in The Ballymore than The Supreme. And, he'd scare off some of his main protagonist eg Fiddlerontheroof who'd be more likely this race bound.

Only 8 weeks to find out.

Since the turn of the century the Supreme has produced twice as many winners of the GC than the Neptune has.

I think that is opened to interpretation. A century is a very long time, and horse racing has moved on since.

Let me put it another way,

In the last 20 years the Supreme has produced twice as many winners of the GC than the Neptune has.

Again stats could be read in many ways eg horses that ran in The Supreme (who did not win) could have been running in the wrong race. Or trainers could have had runners they thought would do better in The Supreme than Neptune, and vice versa.

Regards Elliot and Envoi Allen I think it's more likely and prudent Envoi Allen runs in the Ballymore as Elliot already has a very credible alternative in Abacadabras for the Supreme, and its ultimate aim. But, like always it's merely conjecture, and an opinion.

Shiskin was impressive yesterday, and cut across the board as a result. I can't help feeling you would want him to have one more run before the festival.

Thought he looks more of a stayer
Ballymore

Trainer has already stated will run again mid February then Cheltenham will be 3/4th hurdle race  depending on whether you count the first run. The vast majority of recent supreme and ballymore winners had at least 3 previous hurdle runs prior to festival. The exception tend to be trained by wpm. (Douvan and yorkhill)

Shishkin going for the Sydney Banks
Hum

Envoi Allen confirmed in the press today to be heading for the Ballymore, Fair warning was given.

Hope some of you covered your position back in November.

Abacadabras has been confirmed for this, and going straight to the Festival; has had 4 runs thus does not need another run prior to Cheltenham.

Well what a surprise,Ab in supreme Ea in ballymore.
But is this the same press that said Ea had a crucial workout??

The present horse racing journos are usually a lazy bunch gathering info thro phone or fellow colleagues (unlike the old days) - no more visiting stables, just speaking to trainers on the phone, etc. Also, some have been looking after their paymasters ie the bookies.

The market is usually the best guide - money talks - esp in horse racing. Are the bookies betting on a 5-Day Cheltenham Festival beginning 2021?

Every man and his dog knew where EA was going to end up, the debate has been whether it was the right race.

Precisely. Be interesting to see how the vanquished get on tomorrow

His versatility as opposed to Abas sees him in the Ballymore, also this guff about minding him as a chaser doesn't stack up as it is the Supreme that has shown to be the best route for a GC prospect you can also consider that his last race when stepped up in trip was arguably his least impressive.

Something amiss with Abracadabras by the look of the market this morning.

Weak with Bookies chappies as WELL

Shishkin hardly strong either considering weakness in Aba

Shiskin going Supreme says Hendo.

Visually yesterday, he reminded me of Altior in his run at Kempton before his Supreme win.
Turn of foot very impressive.

I'm a late comer for Shiskin because of Envoi Allen. I think Abacadabras is not good enough; Asterion Forlonge the unknown.

No doubt an irish banker in terms of winning this race
Poison nicky might have something up his sleeve
...depends if bha allow his injections
..but the irish novices have been far in advance
Of anything the english have had 5 of the last 7 years !

Impossible, thought Abras ran very well when chasing home Envoi. If not good enough, you are raising doubts about Envoi too?

HOping that the run of MD on Saturday will see Fiddler cement his place in this.
Think hes a big runner,especially if soft, but i have to admit i am seriously worried about Shishkin!!

Market is suspended on betfair exchange ,anyone know why

^^
12pm today is forfeit stage.

I think Shishkin will overwhelm Abacadabras here, but the form behind Envoi Allen is solid with several winners coming from the over-rans; Envoi Allen has been backed in The Neptune as if defeat is not in question similar to Samcro 2 years ago.

As this race has developed I think the Ballymore is a stronger looking race, Shiskin for me wins this, he's really sold and for me the 5 or 6 immediately behind him in the betting all have big questions to answer.

really solid or sold  ?

An unlucky race for me eg chose BD over Altior, and having watched Shishkin he'd be potentially very good.

no value imo at the current price has only won a listed race beating shan blue  and  a maiden he may be the next  pegasus but he  may  need to be imo, a few with graded winning form and bigger prices  and similar progressive profiles well done if ya got the dubble figga odds tho.

solid

fort so duff

solid as a rock.

Had a look at the odds for race with the biggest winning distance, but alas the Supreme was not on the list.
However,now that Chantry House looks like running here,i am quiet glad!!
Still think Shishkin wins, but CH will make the race closer than it would have been imo

Still have not given up on Fiddler,and likely ground may well see him with his best chance,but this Shishkin imo will turn out to be something special.

Chantry House isn't as flashy as Shiskin but he just looks very laid back and less fizzy than the jolly. Think he has got stacks of improvement and I think a fast pace will help him and I can see him rattling up the hill and staying on the best. Have followed him since his bumper win at Warwick with the likes of Edwardstone and Shan Blue behind. I really like him as lot but it looks like the stable think the jolly is the one.

Well if he runs in this I have had my bottom spanked!! Was told Ballymore was def the race for him, never mind.

FWIW I think you were dead unlucky. Had exter not been called off I think theres every chance ch would have been heading for Ballymore now

FWIW I think you were dead unlucky. Had exter not been called off I think theres every chance ch would have been heading for Ballymore now

Think it's the Sporting John scenario that sends CH to the Supreme. You were probably right Deptford in your analysis as I think NH said he looked like the 2 1/2 mile race would suit the horse well.Who knows things may change.Not so sure if the meeting will go ahead anyway.

The perils of ante post punting, and the stable sure over 2m it wont beat Shiskin.

He's the stables second string isn't he, what SJ did the other day confirmed his place in the Ballymore, CH has to go to the other race, not through their opinion that it's his best chance, but rather that SJ is the best horse and wants further. Whereas in the past you'd see two JP horses in the Supreme, they've probably decided that they don't want to throw two darts at EA.

Think they simply are wanting to win both races, and to be fair, they both have chances.
Hendo wanted CH and Shishkin separate, Barry would not, and Frank and JP decide, and it makes sense for them.

That will teach me to be greedy and not take nrnb on CH for Ballymore!!
Think hes the only horse since nrnb,that I have not taken it.
I formed an opinion after watching him at Newbury,and did not consider seriously other things.
Schoolboy error!!!

Nick on Luck, Chantry May be in Supreme as well, gutted.

I'm not sure if this is his intended target but would fancy asterion forlonge for this race if he turns up. I believe his form is stronger and he fits the profile of a typical supreme winner. Obviously the owner also has Shiskin in the race and whilst Hendo places a lot of horses in this race who turn out to be stars. His winning record is not so great.

Nicky just said on Unibet preview evening Chantry in this.

Spot on taxi

Forecast ,,,,,, ,,Shishkin and CH.
Throw in Fiddler for the tricast

Which 1 of the 4 will be wearing blinkers

Budd wears blinkers

Seriously, its hard enough getting the winner, let alone forecasts and tricasts!!

Money back as cash from 'Sly' up to £10 on 1st bet here.

Gordon owns the keys to this race.

Don't fancy Asterion in the slightest. Can't believe how short he is. Think you need a horse with plenty of toe. He hasn't got it. Famous last words.

I've 297 posts obviously you've slabbered a lot more than me

asterion fav on here now .

Nice to see Fiddler looking so well,and nice to hear Joe talking about his chances .
Think he's going to run a big race on Tuesday.

AF surprises me on here......jumped a bit too much to the right to for my liking.
I would have Abra in front of him as well as Shishkin.
Taking a look today at some of the bigger priced ones today.

this shishkin is a big drift so maybe that is why asterion is being lumped on, even though he is much the best horse in the race anyway on all known form imo

looked like they went a real good clip in that race that asterion won and the  way went away at the finish indicates the hill should be no problem and a big galloping type ,near 10 length  grade 1 winner  straight from a maiden  not shabby .

I do like Shishkin as he stays more than the trip. Also, he can also quicken which is a mega plus similar to Altior. I think Fiddlerontheroof will benefit from a strong pace - he'll be finishing, But, tbh I know nothing about Asterion Forlange and Abacadabras except one finished behind the Irish banker Envoi Allen.

Shishkin taken out the Ballymore...……...interesting that AF remains in Ballymore.
Chantry House also remains in Ballymore
Not sure what that all means other than Shishkin runs in Supreme.

From memory Shishkin and AF share the same owner, I believe. I also believe the latter is in this race is because of Envoi Allen (EA) - the perceived Irish banker. And, if EA is an absentee in the Ballymore I've little doubt AF and even Chantry House will be Ballymore bound.

For me its CH in Supreme cos of Sporting John in Ballymore, and maybe left in just in case anything happens to SJ.
AF is interesting, but I guess just keeping options open.

AF was ultimately impressive last time but I am a little surprised at the apparent dismissal of his jumping out to the right, to me he can't do this in the Supreme, last time he was up in front the whole way in a small field with nothing on his outside, in a bigger field supreme he'd have to get out in front again because if he's got horses up alongside him it will cause both him and them problems as he bumps into other horses, there is a big chance that he'll be shuffled back through the pack when this happens, he can't give away ground and momentum regardless, he also looks like a big gangly article too that will just get disorganized with all this going on.

Added Edwardstone at 20/1 nrnb.
Think hes overpriced.
Watching his races I think a good pace and big field will really suit him.

Watching his races I think a good pace and bid field will really suit Captain Guinness as well.

Best way to play the hills 7 place offer if you can get on?

Fiddler for me but only a small bet. I am backing any of Tizzards that are less than 12/1. Nicholls, Hendo and Eliott all had a few shorties beaten recently but they could be running the dross with the Festival coming.

I think Abacadabras is an amazing e/w bet to nothing with those paying 7 places.

The form behind Envoi Allen looks great in the context of this race and he has already ran well here last year which can be a good omen. Barring a mishap there is no way I see him out of the first 7 and I believe he can win as the front two in the market are not bomb proof.

just a little concerned that AT had a very hard race last time, would be banker of the meeting but for that thought.

Shishkin wins easy

A no-brainer bet with 'sly' given their money back in cash offer, if selection is a loser (only 1st bet counts).

Yes, but no one can get a bet with them!! I won around £120 in total last year and they restrict every single bet I ask for, a fooking vermin bunch of koonts.

Oh, maybe I've been lucky. I've been with 'sly' for years, but I only do antepost or big races definitely no run-of-the-mill or weekend races (very small amount). I've had withdrawals in several hundred (antepost) but never restricted. Also, I only win mediocre sum each time.

ABRACADABRAS

RAVENHILL

Only person capable of overturning the Irish today is venetia williams

The ground is heavy, under water in places....1.01 NAP

If 4mm of rain is correct it will only be soft. And no more rain after this morning could be just on the soft side of good on Friday New Course.

Shishkin on the drift. Not the right ground?

Backed again recently along with Chantry House but is that a Henderson factor? The market 10 minutes before the race will tell us a lot but I am on Fiddler and nothing else attracts me.

Well, not easy but won, thank you for best price guarantee, great start.

A gutsy win given the position he was in after badly impeded by a faller; the 2nd had a dream of a run, but Shiskin oozed class and bottle.

I placed the bet with 'sly' but only settled on price taken (5/2) not sp ie best odds guaranteed as their promotion indicated.

Could not believe pundits on both ITV and RTV talking about the ground for Shishkin, when hes sluiced up on heavy at Newbury!!
If the ground was the reason for the drift, that's crazy, but thanks anyway.

As Imp says,Shishkin had far from a dream run,unlike the 2nd, and would have won by a wider margin.
Top class horse in the making, probably already is.

Not going to bother replying on the above budd
But just to say well done budd
The best horse won
Had a great day yesterday as you can probably tell
From what i put up
Heard percy was flying snd quealy has one lined up in the boodles at a massive price.
Wel done again with shishkin

Glad you had a good day.
Think both horses are good , be interesting to see how they progress and whether they take similar paths going forward.
May be more clashes to come?

Thanks for putting up PTKO for the Arkle by the way.
I shall take a look at Queallys
Cheers.

Just watched it back again.
AF....dear oh dear!! Nearly took out ED at the 3rd last,and succeeded 2nd resulting in carnage that bought down CG and almost got Shishkin.
Have to feel sorry for ED and CG,both running big races.
Bet they wish they aint ran AF now,or at least lined up on the outside.
Hope I never see him at festival again unless they manage to sort that right handed stuff.

The withdrawal of Chacun just adds to the Mullins car crash so far.

See the right handed stuff not been cured with AF.
Stick to right handed please Willie.

Ferry hollow v Bob olinger Friday good little match up on paper