Cheltenham Festival
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03 Dec 19
22:01
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Date Joined:
05 Oct 11
Strange to see the support for Abacadabras.
Barring a mishap has no chance of turning the form around with Envoi Allen. He would be thumped even more on a stiffer track.
Barring a mishap has no chance of turning the form around with Envoi Allen. He would be thumped even more on a stiffer track.
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looks a cracking ew bet abacadabras certainly matured this year and if he hadn't hit 3 out the other day he could of finished much closer...good enough to place in any normal year plus envoi likely for the ballymore
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Not if the stable know the winner running in a different race
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considering mark walsh's comments after andy dufresne won that he had plenty of speed, it wouldn't surprise me if he ran here. jp mcmanus loves the race and he seemed ultra quick over his hurdles on debut. be interesting to see if he rocks up at leopardstown in the future stars champion novice
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I'm on Abacadabras for the Supreme (win only), but if Envoi Allen turns up there, that's toast
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Harry throwing out a few more maggots.
Cufcno1 That would be my thinking. Perhaps the stable staff have been given a steer or think they have? He wouldn't be being backed because he is a good each way bet. He cannot win if Envoi Allen goes here. Envoi Allen wins this race on the basis of everything he has done so far. He might be better over further, he might not. If he can win this race what is the point in experimenting to try and win a different race? The only reason to switch would be in terms of betting and that surely isn't the right way to go? |
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The Cheltenham festival is completely unique when it comes to the whole ante post scene. There is certainly nothing remotely comparable on the flat where I find for the most part (but not always) stables and trainers are far more transparent about future targets. I hope the flat owners pay quickly for tuition and figure this out as if they are not careful they will become guilty by association and find that their all important brand has been tarnished this would be a huge price to pay for their new hobby.
I hope they have provided feedback on the whole MR scene and I hope they provide clear expectation over how they would like the EA thing to be handled. They will not have the luxury that say RR had to sit back and defer to the trainer as they are seasoned and massive players in the broader horse industry. Reading everybody’s posts so much seems to hang on which race one of their horses runs in. I hope they get that this is a much bigger deal than whether their two year old runs in the Coventry or the Norfolk. |
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Abracadbras is a fantastic bet imo. If Envoi Allen goes to the Ballymore which still looks Plan A, then that form behind him looks rock solid.
Take EA out of that race, and he absolutely hoses in. |
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Out of curiosity CCM what price would you be prepared to take on abra if you knew EA wasn’t going to run?
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Abracadbras is a fantastic bet imo. If Envoi Allen goes to the Ballymore which still looks Plan A, then that form behind him looks rock solid.
Take EA out of that race, and he absolutely hoses in. Like I say CCM, that's my hope since I've got fancy prices on Abacabras (win only) based on the notion he'd have run EA close at the Leopardstown Champion Bumper back in February and Elliot saying he's all speed (basically confirming it was the Supreme or nothing, if he was good enough). Hovever EA has now beaten Aba 3 times and I cant envisage a plausible scenario now where Aba beats him. We'll see, I guess..... |
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Im slightly biased ms as on at 33/1, 25/1 and 16/1 but I think anything from 6/1 - 8/1 would be more than fair at this stage if you knew EA wasnt going and Abra was.
In that scenario, he has easily the best form on offer, and a good course run to boot. |
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Hanx. I cant see a plausible scenario where any novice beats EA!
But until another GE novice like Andy Dufresne comes out and proves they can compete at this level, GE has the best 2 best novices seen so far in Ireland in these two so why not split them up? I think that EA would have been more likely to go for the Supreme if Abra had ran a bad race the last day myself. |
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Nicely done sir.
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differentdrum04 Dec 19 09:41Joined: 05 Oct 11 | Topic/replies: 9,689 | Blogger: differentdrum's blog
Harry throwing out a few more maggots. i've had a few speculative pounds, mcmanus loves the race and this dufresne horse jumps very quickly and going on mark walshs comments i'd say he has plenty of speed. elliott also added after he was lazy https://www.racingtv.com/videos/watch/ondemand/79738 |
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The other thing is that this race more than any other is the one where bookies go for broke offering all kinds of come ons.
If you fancy one at the head of the market then it'll prpbably be part of some bet to nothing promotion by one of the firms on the day, if you're prepared to wait and see what's on offer |
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On what basis was the Ballymore plan A for the Ballymore? Because more punters backed him for that race?
On a sharp track Abacadabras was the one who was too slow. He should be the one to be kicked into touch. It is ridiculous to mould your plans around a horse who is clearly second best. The Supreme should be won by the best 2 mile novice and it is obvious who that is. |
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^ On what basis was the Ballymore plan A for Envoi Allen?
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The plan is to start him off over 2m4f at Down Royal next month. He's not slow, we could start him off over 2m if we wanted to, but I'd say that's what we'll do. He's a very classy horse and he could be anything really. You'd imagine the Ballymore at Cheltenham would be the long-term plan. He worked with Malone Road after racing last week and we’re very happy with where he is. From the RP stable tour
Forty |
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So they didn’t even get past the first half of the first sentence. For those playing or have played on EA fingers crossed I hope you get it right and as for following plans they have run out of letters and onto numbers with Samcro.
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I am not sure when that quote was given but I am sure many backed him for the Ballymore based on drawing the conclusion that he looked a stayer in winning his bumpers. Unfortunately, for those who went down that route he has looked a far sharper model this season. Opinion should now be based on this season, not last season. 'He's not slow' was perhaps a warning of what was to come.
There was plenty of chance to cover those bets at good prices after Down Royal. |
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The yard sponsor has a special market on which race EA will run in at the Festival.
You should fill your boots on the 5/2 for the Supreme dd. He's 1-3 for the Ballymore btw. |
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Thanks, I don't need to. In your opinion it's all over then?
Obviously, there are close links with Betfair/Elliott. They went 20/1 after Down Royal for the Supreme which seems to suggest they had a clear steer from Elliott. Perhaps Elliott and the stable staff have had their fiver on for Ballymore and the owners have caved? At the moment there is no other reason for him to go anywhere other than the Supreme. Hard to believe anyone who hasn't had a bet would take a different view. Can you imagine the conversation with the owners? Would you mind moving your vastly superior horse to another race so I can give the horse you just trounced a free shot at this race? Pathetic stuff. Leaving betting aside that can't be good for racing or the horse. |
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I'm not saying its all over, but Id say the way the markets have moved would be pretty telling.
I can see where you are coming from on this btw. And I actually cashed out bets on him for the Ballymore at 10/1 and 8/1 after his first hurdling win and when Malone Road got injured as I thought things may change when they no longer needed to split those two up. But GE seems adamant the horse will deal with the step up in his stride, even benefit from it, so who are we to doubt him? He is a 2m4f winning pointer after all. I actually think he is a freak and the best novice we've seen for some time and has the same chance in either race. GE therefore has the luxury of seeing what else he has for the other races so he can split his best ones up. As we stand Abacadbras is their second best novice and he looks a cert for the Supreme. If Andy Dufresne is impressive over 2m4f in a Graded race next time, maybe it will change again... but right now I think he's going for the Ballymore. |
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As for your comment about the owners, Im afraid that doesnt make much sense. What if he told them in the summer he thought he would be a Ballymore type. He isnt 'moving' him anywhere. There hasn't been a Grade One over 2m4f so its easy to see why they've started him at 2m. Plenty of Ballymore winners ran at 2m prior to the Festival, Samcro included.
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The bit that doesn't make sense to me is the idea that Elliott if what you say is correct is dictating to the owners. It shouldn't matter that he has an inferior horse for another owner. That's the horse that should be moving.
What he may or may not have said in the summer has been superseded by what has subsequently happened on the track. That is far more of a guide than a trainer's out of date opinion. The horse has looked a completely different tool. Envoi Allen is the best two mile novice. Everything else is pure speculation. |
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dd. You sound like someone who isnt interested in listening to an opinion that differs to your own. And also that you feel you know better than Gordon Elliott which is quite amusing. Of course GE will be dictating to the owners. Thats why they pay him... the trainer knows best.
Just because you haven't seen the horse over further than 2m doesnt mean he won't be better for the step up. Samcro was a horse that had the necessary speed to look impressive as a novice over the minimum trip but quite clearly benefited from the step up. PP now go 5/1 Envoi Allen for the Supreme. That's pretty telling. |
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some horrible muck written by differetndrum
especially about the stable staff, who after all do all the work with the horse and if they have had there fiver for the ballymore i for one wish them well |
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Can't Catch Me
You sound like someone who hasn't got anything further to offer so you choose to have a dig at the person. Not a good way to go. What's the point half agreeing with someone? I have presented a case but if people disagree that's fine. I am not suddenly going to change my mind. He might be better over further, he might not. I wonder who said that? You are even adding nothing further by copying what I have already said. Samcro has absolutely nothing to do with this horse. The bottom line is as long as he is winning there is no need to take the risk in stepping him up in trip. If you can't deal with the idea of a logical argument then that is your problem. Keep quoting the price if that makes you feel good. It doesn't make your argument any more sound. You appear to like quoting people. Do you agree with them all or more likely only when it suits? Such as Ruby Walsh who I believe you might have quoted but you didn't choose to quote him after the Royal Bond when he clearly stated that there was no need to step Envoi Allen up in trip. He isn't the only supposed 'expert' with that opinion. That's why it is I believe best to form your own opinion rather than hide behind someone elses. Harry Horrible muck or a logical case that you don't like? If you really think that a horse's career pathway should be based on stable staff having a bet then you really are a lost cause. |
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Who has said the yard have backed it ?
If they have do you think that'd have any bearing on what the trainer thinks is the correct path for the horse ? |
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Elliott reveals that Envoi Allen will be "entered in everything" at Cheltenham, although he is still favouring the Ballymore (2m5f). Will be seen next at Naas next month over 2m4f
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Impressed with Mr Coffey yesterday,liked that a lot.
66 long gone,but 25 is available and I think that could be value. |
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Impressed with Mr Coffey yesterday,liked that a lot.
66 long gone,but 25 is available and I think that could be value. |
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Agree and glowing praise from the trainer afterwards. I am not saying he is the next sprinter but I think trainer is going to mind him this season like he did sprinter who managed to get beat in a supreme. Also most supreme winners have a lot more experience than this fella only his second run yesterday. But for me the ability is right up there and the question marks are why you can get 25 and not half the price. Be fascinating to see where and how quickly we see him again as that will tell us whether the supreme is likely or not. If he wins again in 4-6 weeks expect his price to halve.
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I also wonder whether the original plan was for Shishkin and Chantry House to be stables cheltenham novices with MC a slow burner this year and whether that has changed with Shishkin and MC flip flopping because of Shishkin fall. Shishkin not yet entered again so perhaps they are now saving him for next year. The next few weeks should tell us a lot
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Another impressive performance from Fiddlerontheroof at Sandown........but will it be the supreme for him.......I hope so!!
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After today I would run Envoi in this or Champion.
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The way connections are talking,iand the prices on the two races,it seems pretty clear to me that EA plan is to run in the Ballymore.
If that is the case I can see a big field in the Supreme and a smaller field in the Balllymore. Really not sure which form from both sides of the sea will prove to be telling at Cheltenham,but for sure their are some nice prices available in the Supreme. |
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That wont win Supreme.
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They be mental not run EA, be a shoe in.
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I think the win of Andy Dufresne has cemented the form of Abacadabras for this race. The former was easily beaten by Latest Exhibition who in turn was also easily beaten by Abacadbras.
But Envoi Allen easily beat Abacadabras - both trained by Elliot for different owner - Cheveley Park and Gigginstown respectively. No doubt they will be separated; one for the Ballymore, the other Supreme. |