Cheltenham Festival
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Supreme Novices
Supreme Novices
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Elliot say no problem Andy go up in trip for Chelt.
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If the market looks roughly as it is now Abacadabra's is going to be a fav that the books will be getting after on the day. He seems to be in his elevated position primarily through his run behind EA, as good as it appears we know that EA wins by these narrowish margins but appears to have more in hand, he certainly did on this day and appeared very strong at the line.
Abas last win was devalued as his market rival didn't show up and the time before that he beat a stayer, more concerning than all of that though is the fact this horse has a horrible head carriage when brought under pressure, you see it a little in his last race late on where there is a suggestion that he isn't putting it all in, but really noticeable are the two times when this horse has been brought under real pressure. Against EA his head came up and he wasn't doing much late on, you could also suggest that that apparent spurt that EA had late on might have had something to do with the 2nd's reluctance. The bumper was really quite damning, turning in Abacadabras was travelling as well as anything but when brought under pressure he clearly cocked his jaw and was a weak finisher, if he comes up the hill in March in the same manner he wins nothing, he's a poor price for the Supreme. |
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Yep ^ I am convinced EA runs in this, if he run Andy in Ballymore, JP also got Chantry House who I fancy for that, had a token punt on EA for Supreme at 7/1, if not run, no matter.
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I believe the ultimate goal of Envoi Allen is the Gold Cup thus it makes more sense to run him in The Ballymore than The Supreme. And, he'd scare off some of his main protagonist eg Fiddlerontheroof who'd be more likely this race bound.
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Only 8 weeks to find out.
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Since the turn of the century the Supreme has produced twice as many winners of the GC than the Neptune has.
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I think that is opened to interpretation. A century is a very long time, and horse racing has moved on since.
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Let me put it another way,
In the last 20 years the Supreme has produced twice as many winners of the GC than the Neptune has. |
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Again stats could be read in many ways eg horses that ran in The Supreme (who did not win) could have been running in the wrong race. Or trainers could have had runners they thought would do better in The Supreme than Neptune, and vice versa.
Regards Elliot and Envoi Allen I think it's more likely and prudent Envoi Allen runs in the Ballymore as Elliot already has a very credible alternative in Abacadabras for the Supreme, and its ultimate aim. But, like always it's merely conjecture, and an opinion. |
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Shiskin was impressive yesterday, and cut across the board as a result. I can't help feeling you would want him to have one more run before the festival.
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Thought he looks more of a stayer
Ballymore  |
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Trainer has already stated will run again mid February then Cheltenham will be 3/4th hurdle race depending on whether you count the first run. The vast majority of recent supreme and ballymore winners had at least 3 previous hurdle runs prior to festival. The exception tend to be trained by wpm. (Douvan and yorkhill)
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Shishkin going for the Sydney Banks
Hum |
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Envoi Allen confirmed in the press today to be heading for the Ballymore, Fair warning was given.
Hope some of you covered your position back in November. |
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Abacadabras has been confirmed for this, and going straight to the Festival; has had 4 runs thus does not need another run prior to Cheltenham.
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Well what a surprise,Ab in supreme Ea in ballymore.
But is this the same press that said Ea had a crucial workout?? |
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The present horse racing journos are usually a lazy bunch gathering info thro phone or fellow colleagues (unlike the old days) - no more visiting stables, just speaking to trainers on the phone, etc. Also, some have been looking after their paymasters ie the bookies.
The market is usually the best guide - money talks - esp in horse racing. Are the bookies betting on a 5-Day Cheltenham Festival beginning 2021? |
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Every man and his dog knew where EA was going to end up, the debate has been whether it was the right race.
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Precisely. Be interesting to see how the vanquished get on tomorrow
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His versatility as opposed to Abas sees him in the Ballymore, also this guff about minding him as a chaser doesn't stack up as it is the Supreme that has shown to be the best route for a GC prospect you can also consider that his last race when stepped up in trip was arguably his least impressive.
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Something amiss with Abracadabras by the look of the market this morning.
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Weak with Bookies chappies as WELL
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Shishkin hardly strong either considering weakness in Aba
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Shiskin going Supreme says Hendo.
Visually yesterday, he reminded me of Altior in his run at Kempton before his Supreme win. Turn of foot very impressive. |
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I'm a late comer for Shiskin because of Envoi Allen. I think Abacadabras is not good enough; Asterion Forlonge the unknown.
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No doubt an irish banker in terms of winning this race
Poison nicky might have something up his sleeve ...depends if bha allow his injections ..but the irish novices have been far in advance Of anything the english have had 5 of the last 7 years ! |
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Impossible, thought Abras ran very well when chasing home Envoi. If not good enough, you are raising doubts about Envoi too?
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HOping that the run of MD on Saturday will see Fiddler cement his place in this.
Think hes a big runner,especially if soft, but i have to admit i am seriously worried about Shishkin!! |
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Market is suspended on betfair exchange ,anyone know why
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^^
12pm today is forfeit stage. I think Shishkin will overwhelm Abacadabras here, but the form behind Envoi Allen is solid with several winners coming from the over-rans; Envoi Allen has been backed in The Neptune as if defeat is not in question similar to Samcro 2 years ago. |
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As this race has developed I think the Ballymore is a stronger looking race, Shiskin for me wins this, he's really sold and for me the 5 or 6 immediately behind him in the betting all have big questions to answer.
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really solid or sold ?
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An unlucky race for me eg chose BD over Altior, and having watched Shishkin he'd be potentially very good.
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no value imo at the current price has only won a listed race beating shan blue and a maiden he may be the next pegasus but he may need to be imo, a few with graded winning form and bigger prices and similar progressive profiles well done if ya got the dubble figga odds tho.
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solid
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fort so duff
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solid as a rock.
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Had a look at the odds for race with the biggest winning distance, but alas the Supreme was not on the list.
However,now that Chantry House looks like running here,i am quiet glad!! Still think Shishkin wins, but CH will make the race closer than it would have been imo Still have not given up on Fiddler,and likely ground may well see him with his best chance,but this Shishkin imo will turn out to be something special. |
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Chantry House isn't as flashy as Shiskin but he just looks very laid back and less fizzy than the jolly. Think he has got stacks of improvement and I think a fast pace will help him and I can see him rattling up the hill and staying on the best. Have followed him since his bumper win at Warwick with the likes of Edwardstone and Shan Blue behind. I really like him as lot but it looks like the stable think the jolly is the one.
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Well if he runs in this I have had my bottom spanked!! Was told Ballymore was def the race for him, never mind.
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