ANDY DUFRESNE

Champion Bumper hero Envoi Allen made a bright start to his hurdles career at Down Royal this month and looks set to tackle Sunday's Royal Bond Novice Hurdle alongside the promising Abacadabras.

Elliott said: "We've got a great bunch of novice hurdlers this year. I suppose Abacadabras is a speedy horse whereas with Envoi Allen, you could see him stepping up as the year goes on. He's a big galloping, staying horse. They're two exciting horses and someone has to get beaten."

That sounds like trainer speak for a load of bull.

I expect Envoi Allen to win comfortably and last time I looked so does the market. If that happens there is absolutely no reason to complicate matters by stepping up in trip. Cheltenham would provide a much stiffer test of stamina.

I think i was.more trying to suggest that
For irish horses this is the start of the cheltenham trail
The general approach is a four to six week gap and two races before the festival.
Dont think the named races themselves actually matter on the first run
Its just to get them aired. E G Royal rendvous runz in the beginners chase at thurles 12-15 , that was always touted as a cheltenham horse

What price Envoi Allen do we think?

cracking card on Sunday with several Grade 1 races.

Abacadabras
Darver Star
Embittered
Envoi Allen
Fast Buck
Midnight Run
Turnpike Trip
Foveros
Soviet Pimpernel

9 declared for royal bond a very deep race

I don't think it is a deep race at all.

Which of those do you see putting it up to Envoi Allen?

You don't see it as a deep race, interesting. What would you call a deep race in regards novices?

Not this one. The second favourite is held on bumper form and no reason why obstacles should produce a different result. Envoi Allen is both a better horse and a more straightforward horse.

In general a deep race is one where several horses can win it.

Interesting thoughts.

looks deep enough to me ,not saying the fav wont win but there are some decent looking novices up against him and most open to any amount of improvement , i will probably have 2 or 3 big pricers against it .

I suspect there will a number of Ballymore backers who will be hoping Envoi Allen doesn't win this easily. You can probably throw in Betfair as well who were top priced 20/1 for the Supreme after Down Royal.

If this isn’t a deep race, I don’t know what is. Strongest novice hurdle of the season by some margin.

This is the best bumper horse and a really imposing horse to boot. He couldn't have been more impressive on hurdling debut on a course that was probably sharper than ideal. The form has been franked all over the place. He comfortably holds today's second and third favourites on bumper form.

I will ask the same question of those who think it is a strong race. Who is going to beat him and more importantly why? Having an off day doesn't count.

as said i will be having 2 or 3 against him on the basis that the field is full of unexposed hurdlers so we have no way of knowing how good they are  or how good they will be  , also elliot has hinted that envoi may be better over further so todays 2m may not be ideal . he does hold a few of these on last seasons bumper form but there are hurdles in the way and it will be tougher than on his hurdles debut .he may as the betting suggests hack up but i will be taking him on . abracadabras looked very decent winning a graded race last time, also like the look of foveros who also has a progressive profile ,money should continue to come for the fav and ensure some juicy prices for the others .good luck diffdrum if envoi wins impressivly then we may have a superstar in the ranks which will be great for racing .

I haven't backed him today. I rarely back odds on but there are much worse odds on chances than this one. When you back a horse for next March it's enough just to see them come through unscathed. So much can go wrong.

dd. I think you are confusing deep with competitive.

EA is quite clearly the best novice in GB & Ire. I don't think there is a horse in training that could beat him today personally.

But time will show there are a number of very good horses in this race today who will all go on to win plenty of Graded races imo. Thats why its deep. You only had to listen to Ruby just then... best novice race of its kind he's seen in some time was his assessment.

it appears differendrum has all bases covered

just on the race today it will be interesting to see how he rides envoi allen today, it's all well and good getting loose on an easy lead in a maiden hurdle at down royal ,sooner or later he will be dropping the horse in as he is a hold up horse. fast buck should lead today but i'll be interested how russell rides him and when they decide to educate him in behind horses. it paid to be handy in the first race today so maybe he will ride him handy but sooner or later he will be ridden in behind there doesn't look a huge amount of pace in this race today so it could get tactical

4 novices in this race rated 140 or more already and its not deep

unbelievable money for this horse, considering the track he is running around today

looks a ballymore horse to me...he'll go the istabraq hardy eustace route i'd say

Bit of a concern at the start but after that he has controlled the race without it being an easy lead and eventually won a shade comfortably. A stiffer two miles and he would have won even more comfortably. On that evidence no reason to do anything different.

dint see the race but seems he was a good winner ,well done diff drum hope ya got the ante post prices . done my dough but happy if if this is a superstar .

Thanks, I prefer to give straightforward opinions. People can judge for themselves who was covering all bases and then doing a bit of after race fishing?

nice to get a bite

considering you didn't think it was a very deep race differendrum you must of been a tad disappointed he didn't win more comfortably?

Can't see why they need to go any further with him, he hasn't shown that's what he needs one bit, he's just swatted away the best that Ireland has to offer with the minimum of fuss.

I really liked the bit where you might half think that the 2nd was about to come to him on the run in but you then see that the horse almost senses him coming and basically says, back you go son

this is a brilliantly non biased thread, it has to be admired

Interesting that PP have shortened AD. An unusual response to watching the only horse ahead of him in the market win impressively.

Harry are you putting yourself forward as the only neutral poster on this thread

Well, let's ask what he did today to suggest he should go further?

i try and look at things non biased miltons even if i've had a wager. pointless nailing yourself and ramping, as it's to easy to get things wrong so far away from the meeting without having all the facts, i realise that money talks though and it is certainly talking on this thread which will happen when your dealing with top class horses especially when they are all in the same barn. i've had a bet in the champion hurdle which is unheard for me and could be ramping on here but can't take the pain because in all likely hood i'll get it wrong as the race is brutal

Totally understand and agree. Financially I would be better off with EA in ballymore but I can absolutely see the argument of it if ain’t broke don’t fix it and my balanced view is 51/49 to the supreme despite it hurting my multiples. When you say you have had a CH bet I assume you mean EA. Genuinely good luck with that am a huge fan of bets that come from alternative thinking. I am still having nightmares that McCoy managed to get binocular beat in the supreme with plenty on at 3 digit prices.

Sorry AP fans just bitter money talk

Sorry AP fans just bitter money talk

no i haven't backed envoi allen in the champion i'd give it no chance the speed he jumps his hurdles at this stage of his career. it's all well and good getting loose on another easy lead compared with running against fast champion hurdle horses. i know people will look at the owners and think they would have a stab at the champion but i don't see that myself, yes if he'd won hard on the snaffle today by 10 lengths i'd have a different view but he didn't. they will not like keep making the running with envoi and he'll have to drop in at some point i still see him ending up in a ballymore but can see why people may think he could win a supreme as well but why put him to the sword in that, when the ballymore is there for the taking

I agree re the CH. that said it is shaping up to be a pretty ‘young and inexperienced’ CH this year ... not sure I can remember a year with so many relatively lightly raced hurdlers at the head of the market.

I do see your point about ballymore but I can easily see EA doing a vautour... taking up early and others unwilling / unable to take him on for fear of jeopardising their own chance and de facto controlling  the race.

Time well tell. A little late for players to nail their colours now bar the big hitters so I think it is understandable that folks will be in one camp or another and what little objectivity existed will all but disappear, but personally I think that’s ok.

If AD wasn't to run in the Neptune then I'd have thought he'd be more suited to go up in trip rather than down, the way he travelled and finished off in bad ground over 20f on a stiff track like Navan suggests stamina allied with a degree of speed is his forte.

To that end I'd expect that Elliott would much prefer to see these two in both the Supreme and Neptune rather than one of those two races not having one of them in, EA for the Supreme and AD in the Neptune looks the best fit, of course AD has it all to prove yet and has to step up in grade before we can really see where we are with him.

The time of AD to me was pretty slow on bad ground compared to other races.

My take on running plans (pocket has spoken) is

Abracadabra Supreme
Envoi A Baillymore
AD Albert B

Forty

another nice opportunity for the dufresne horse tomorrow. elliott entered 6 and runs 2 no doubt to stop the race being reopened...a nice weak race but 2/5 makes no appeal

dunno about weak harry a few usefull looking uns in there and elliot isnt discounting his other one conflated ,six shooter makes it interesting ,at 2/5 i think i will take him on with those 2

also nolan has what looks a half decent one .

yes agree he looks the most likely danger. still not a great race for the grade imo

No mention yet on this thread of how strong AD's debut over hurdles was.
The runner up, Cobbler's Way, won his bumper in hugely impressive fashion and seemed to take to hurdles very well. A huge beast, he jumped fluently, yet had no answer to AD over the final two flights. We have no idea how good a hurdler he might be but there is certainly a case for him being well above average. He was also backed down to 9/2, suggesting confidence.
The third, Alpine Cobra, beaten 16.5 lengths by AD, in receipt of 5lbs, has come first and second subsequently, recording RP's of 124 and 134. Given how easily AD won, this franks the form to some extent and points to AD already being a 150ish performer.

Today will provide more answers but he could have done no more first time out and certainly wasn't beating trees.

yes cyclops when i went into the form more closely this andy fella does look the part and could be a monster ,still taking him on with those 2 , but prudent to have a few forcasts with him  as cover .

Wants put in the supreme speed to burn and a great jumper

collapsed quicker than a cheap argos tent under pressure. 

i for one wanted to see more and now have the answer in regards dufresne. the winner could be an albert bartlett type and considering his mistake down the back he did well to win, although the dufresne hype horse will to win has to be questioned? who found little when put under pressure, his namesake put up a little bit more fight before resisting i'd say

Latest Exhibition couldn't beat a 2 miler over 2 miles but he beat one today over 2m4f.

Hope all is well Harry.

Trainer said he didn't run his race
Winner going for the AB

How would he know he says he does nothing at home

A trainer of Gordons calibre knows exactly what he has, So do the good lads.
Do you really think Gordon came from nothing to the top on his own without knowing his stock, Wise up.

Could've got 50's for Latest exhibition for the AB a few days ago

My view is AD is a stayer.  Has controlled pace in two slow run races and couldn't quicken.  Still think he has a chance is Albert B.

Forty

Apologies gutfeeling I noticed another poster throwing a little bait out previously on a topic and I couldn’t resist. I actually think it’s pretty bad form so I have given myself a good flogging. Don’t take it personally but you were long odds on to be the first to bite. I have noticed on previous attempts to enjoy this forum that certain trainers were almost untouchable and it was clear that some posters had a close association with certain yards either directly or through friends/associates.

I noticed before that their understandable loyalty manifested in them responding quite disproportionately to posters that dared utter anything resembling a criticism.

For the record I think GE is a great trainer. I also respect people like yourself that share inside knowledge. I am now off to seek wisdom. Perhaps I can get help from the bloke on the ad that recommended the horse whisperer.

Yes, no excuses, jumped really well but did collapse as soon as it was put up to him, very disappointing all round

i'll be brutally honest and say i thought walsh pushed him out first time and i didn't think there was a whole lot under the bonnet when asked to pick up, he certainly didn't win unextended in a bad race in a slow time

today he once again travelled well and jumped well but nothing under the bonnet which explains elliott taking his other runners out he had entered to leave him with a perfect opportunity. the winner made an horrific blunder and still won so maybe there is something physical with dufresne but you would have to question whether he is any good or he certainly isn't as good as the hype would lead people to believe

in regards cheltenham i don't see it myself and he now how has a million questions to answer and like all novices his next start will tell us a whole lot more. i had a few token pounds for the supreme but i mean pounds not notes but i'd say all bets would be in doubt now just from a class point of view

What concerned me most was there was a moment turning in when the winner came to him and he had his chance to turn him away but it was at this precise moment when he felt that pressure that he made a mistake and from that point on he offered nothing.

Elliott is questioning whether it was his real running with regards the 3rd horse and of course he'll deserve another chance, but on that showing he looked a bit of a bully that turned it in when it got a bit tough.

Oh well that's the Chheltenham dream over for this year, very much doubt he will even run now.

But Don Cossack was well beaten in this race when sent off 8/15 to maintain his unbeaten record and he went on to win a Gold Cup so all is not lost long term.

all in all it wernt a bad run and  by dufresne  the winner had more experience and was the form horse on his 2nd in  the grade 3  for auction hurdle, ,has lost a bit of his aura but jumped well in the main  and was beat by a strong stayer . obviously dissapointing to be beat at short odds but all is not lost .

I hope you're right foyles because another finish like that one and they'll have to rename him Andy Refrain!

after the navan hurdles win for andy duf gordon elliot said " he is a big weak horse and still not the finished article ,he could drop back to 2m no problem . mark said he showed an awful lot of pace and he thought he was going too slow,thought he was  just hacking ,i stepped him up to 2 and a half as he was just a bit sleepy at home ...taken from the ..irish racing site , a good site and well worth a visit if ya havent yet .

Yes, read that, the quotes now would be more interesting, we just need to see the next run, he's got a lot to prove, it would have been more encouraging if we'd heard that they'd found some sort of excuse but I haven't read anything.

gordon did say he dont think he gave his true running post race , what i did note on sunday morning on his ambassadors blog thing on here " andy duffrese my best chance of a winner i suppose " didnt strike me as full of confidence for a 2/5 shot and to me  he knew it would be no walk in the park facing a graded performer and some promising types on his 2nd run stepped up in class . also in those quotes  he said after andys bumper win "he would be as good as any bumper horse we have sent out this season "  envoi included ? so in my book he has the 2 of them very close . the upside is you can get a decent price  now for andy  if you keep the faith .

Probably apt that we are now looking for redemption

It’s amazing how often and how quickly a piece of wisdom takes on a life of its own as soon as it becomes public property. To the extent that it very quickly gets imprinted as fact not opinion. I think the two sports this happens most often is football and racing and in both cases a few data points very quickly turn into indisputable fact and otherwise bright and thoughtful people find themselves unwittingly joining the herd almost without thinking.

Very quickly the view that Irish novice hurdlers were way better than those on the other side of the sea I think got quickly institutionalised as indisputable fact. There has been very little mention of ANY novice hurdler that is not Irish. Andy Dufresne got a rpr of 141 for his navan win. The big breakaway got 137 for his Chepstow win. A week ago AD was a THIRD of the price (apologies if this is aftertiming).  I suspect there were still many that believed AD was still better value than TBB. Has the market overreacted and is public been swept along without taking rational stock.

FWIW I couldn’t care less which side of the sea a horse is trained. I simply try and look for horses that I believe have a better chance of winning than their price suggests. Apologies but I haven’t checked the RPRs but one owner has 4 horses in the supreme two for wpm one for hendo and one for mr Hobbs. Is the difference in the ability of these horses accurately reflected in their price or have the markets overreacted to popular wisdom? Unsurprisingly the two wpm horses are significantly shorter. Yes there can be debate over which race they will run in e.t.c but has the Irish novice card been overplayed and as with all markets is  a correction is on its way?

Horses like sporting john, chantry house, TBB , ribble valley have been of interest to me now for many weeks one reason being that few people are talking about them and therefore could easily represent value.

Do I think the Irish novice hurdlers are good. Yes absolutely I do. Have we overreacted imo yes we have. If the position was reversed I would be looking for irish novice hurdlers for value (though I do think the ED/LP form is undervalued).

Anyway just a few thoughts

TBB has been impressive and again today, he put me in mind of Franch Holly, looks a big galloping unit, think this one might end up in the AB though.

might be apt we are now lokoing for redemption .....shaw it  will be !

Personally I would be very surprised to see him in AB. They adore this horse .... trainer has repeatedly said there is no need to step him up in trip and they will not risk bottoming him out at all. I also think he is quicker than he looks to the eye and would expect him to keep finding for pressure. The ballymore is shaping up to be a proper race imo. EA is a serious tool but this is not a shoe in.

took some 34 for the supreme on here only buttons but will chip away at anything over 20 ,think its the race for him.

Apologies I know this is a AD thread but remember Duffy he is only a 4 year old. 5 year olds have a poor record in AB and the last one to win barely lifted a leg after.. it’s a brutal race for a 5 yo in my opinion I know the trainer can do bonkers things at times. If I owned him there is no way I’d let the trainer run him in AB. It’s my fault I should know the trainer just says whatever pops into his head at any random moment so I should know better than to take any notice of what he says.

The three 5yo from last years AB commander of fleet, birchdale and Allaho. Will we see COF this season/again. Birchdale ran shockingly the other week and Allaho had a delay (hopefully minor). Three very promising prospects....... not for me if you value the horses future

Andy gets his 2m entry for Sunday in the Moscow Flyer, Fill your boots Foyles,

already have one bootfull ,will start filling the other ! cheers guttie

Not a problem, Long as he turns up Sunday you'll be able to lay off for a nice green page soon enough.

elliot has a few others entered, abracadabras, easywork,and dufresne  1 or possibly 2 run i would say ,hopefully ad is one of them .

I wouldn't be certain but I suspect Abracadabras will turn up at the Dublin festival G1 instead of this.

Although I wouldn't mind taking him on, I mean currently he is the Irish novice hurdler to beat of those entered.

my thoughts also regarding abra

Abas is pretty much the same price now to win the Supreme as Vautours SP. Despite his good run behind EA do we get the real impression he's special himself? there must be value against him ....somewhere. Is Andy a definite runner on Sunday, obviously his current price could look massive if he was to impress there.

Yep,I would say there's value out there for sure,fair few unexposed novices that could be anything.

I was impressed with Mister Coffey on his debut at Newbury a few weeks back, a bit keen, jumped well on the whole and was very strong through the line, 25/1 seems very fair, next run up in class will be very interesting.

Agree Duffy I provided my views on MC in the supreme thread. Take a look and see what you think.... am too lazy to type again.

Just seen that MS, looks like budd has got some 66's agree though, why is he still as big as he is?.

i suspect he is not the only overlooked novice. The Irish novices look good but nearly all the focus and attention has been on them so value could well exist elsewhere. Nearly all supreme winners have at least 3 hurdle races before Cheltenham . I think horses like MC Shishkin and Chantry have tons of ability but they need runs imo. Shishkin has a couple of entries but he fell at second on his hurdle debut. MC is a big winner for me and if he is entered soon I will go in again but time is running out to get the necessary experience and the trainer is notoriously easy on his novice hurdlers.

I would like to take the credit for spotting Mr c before the Newbury run,but that was down to a mate who is pretty good at that.
Like Sophie I would like to see him out  again before March,and also a fair point made re Hendo and his novices,as I say every year he does treat his novice hurdlers rather kindly.
Still,it's all about value and he could well be one of a few that could figure in the Supreme.
The Irish form does look good no doubt, but we don't know how much better(if indeed it is)that form is to the British form.

dont know what to make of that ! struggled to beat captain guiness  who is prob a decent prospect ,jumped well and at least showed he can battle and not fold .both should improve .

Blackbow 50s

Well that provides a little context. BTW she is some rider

Another j p that loves a battle

Yeah, could have done with Blackbow winning by half the track, the 2nd today was also a big price on debut which also suggests he isn't anything that decent. Despite dropping in trip AD pulled for the first part of the race quite a bit, perhaps they crawled, perhaps he didn't like taking a lead, on the plus side he knucklied down well enough, but all in all it was another less than positive day. As the pieces are falling into place it is looking more and more that he is not going to be, (certainly as I and others had hoped) that special, not over hurdles at any rate.

Thing is they will be spot in for chektenham and some of the races here at the moment are full of quality

test

Shishkin now marginal fav on here for supreme I think it’s safe to say a market correction has taken place ....hopefully a few of you have benefitted. For me a strong group of novices both sides of the sea.... can’t wait

Andy Dufresne looks about right at 14/1, has won in a big field and will improve when getting good to soft and a quicker pace on pedigree. He was workmanlike last week, but showed he can get the job done when eyeballing another horse in the run in.

If there’s no standouts in the novice division this year, Envoi aside, then perhaps you need a battler going up the hill. Lessons learnt from that can only be beneficial. Still not one to write off yet.

not entered in supreme ,ballymore ,or spuds

Elliott & JP McManus's Andy Dufresne decide to skip the Cheltenham Festival with the promising novice hurdler.

Beaten by Paul Nolan’s Latest Exhibition in the Navan Novice Hurdle, he returned to winning ways last time out when beating Captain Guinness in the Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle at Punchestown. Frank Berry said: “He’s not had a setback, we’re just giving him more time and he’ll run away in Ireland. He won’t go to the Festival this year, there are a few nice races for him in Ireland so he’ll run in some of those.”

Connections of Andy Dufresne have decided to skip the Cheltenham Festival with the promising novice hurdler.

Trained by Gordon Elliott, the six-year-old was purchased by JP McManus for £330,000 from the Tattersalls sale at Cheltenham in March 2018.

He won his only bumper at Down Royal by 10 lengths and scored on his hurdling debut at Navan by 11 lengths.

Beaten by Paul Nolan’s Latest Exhibition in the Navan Novice Hurdle, he returned to winning ways last time out when beating Captain Guinness in the Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle at Punchestown.

McManus’ racing manager Frank Berry said: “He’s not had a setback, we’re just giving him more time and he’ll run away in Ireland.

“He won’t go to the Festival this year, there are a few nice races for him in Ireland so he’ll run in some of those.”

snap

You could have boiled an egg by the time I posted mine disappointing news though, obviously can't be happy with him.

Elliot has better fancied horse for both Supreme and Ballymore so no great surprise. Still a lovely long term chasing prospect.