ANDY DUFRESNE

Agree Duffy was deeply impressed. Think HDB is in with a shout of a second AB winner in a row though do like hobbs’s horse as well

looked a nice performance, however he beat drains in a slowly run race, he's a horrible price for the neptune at this stage, envoi allen will probably end up in this race i would of thought, personally i would want to see more in a better race myself, then i can actually get an angle of his true ability

I'm a fully paid up member of the fanclub and he's my biggest winner of the Festival at this stage.

Cant possibly have him ahead of EA at this stage though duffy. His form looks unbelievably strong and is currently in a different league to Andy's.

I am not so sure that ad 4 supreme and ea for ballymore. Trainer said ballymore but that was when mr was fit and healthy and befor AD had run. I think EA and AD will be split but  I think it is 50/50 at the moment. The bumper tends to result in more winners / placed / short priced runners for the supreme than ballymore. ..... ballyandy, champagne fever, dunguib, cue card, al ferof, cousin vinny, silver Concorde all ran in the supreme. I seem to remember he was aiming fayonagh there too.

Looking through the breeding AD is more stoutly bred being out of a beneficial mare. Also the owner also has gypsy island which I think is a real prospect for the supreme with an allowance if she goes there. Though he also has sporting John which I would think would be more ballymore. EA royal bond bound so not been/ going over 2 miles since ptp either ( which wouldn’t put me off ballymore but if he wins and shows a turn of foot........) I think it is still very much in the mix

Best of luck to you both.

Well if you are correct that makes his stable tour update a pack of lies where he stated he was moving and schooling well and they were planning to run him’next month’ and saying he had a lot of speed and was their supreme horse. This was October 21sts RP stable tour. If u r correct he was not fit or healthy so a pack of lies then

Understood. Just a question and please understand it is not a pop. Why didn’t you respond to my Malone Road thread

No worries. You will see from my MR thread post that I think this whole thing sucks. When there is money to be made values go out the window with some folks and some companies. I just hope no punters have been burnt too bad. A sea of blue again for EA in supreme and AD in ballymore.

You too. Well hopefully (if you’re right) some who may have lost out on MR availed themselves of the 9/2 EA

CCM,

Yes I agree that EA is ahead on actual form, I was just talking about my personal opinion on the actual eye test and when you weigh in his lack of overall experience on the track and his excellent jumping throughout he deffo produced that wow factor I thought.  EA was obviously impressive too but was perhaps a little stickier with his jumping overall although his best jump did come when he was asked to open up a bit turning in which was encouraging.

Gutfeeling. Im not suggesting you shouldnt post what you hear... as its always valuable to hear info.

But how can it not be a factor if Cheveley Park have 2 top class novice hurdlers and then they only have one? If Andy Dufresne wins every race he runs in between now and Chelts over 2m4f and looks a serious horse... and likewise EA does the same over 2m, do you think (based on what you've heard) that they will run them both against each other?

I just dont think anything will be that set in stone this far out... If EA is a certainty for the Ballymore, then maybe AD could move to one of the other races.

I have absolutely no inside knowledge and never have had other than with a flat trainer who used to ask me for tips. I would say that there is no way jp will allow his horse to run in any race just to accommodate a trainer or another owner. I would also be surprised if the trainer does not do everything he can to win both races. For me as things stand today ea in the supreme and AD in the ballymore increases his chance of winning both. I would fancy AD significantly more in the Ballymore than in the supreme. I would fancy EA in both. The coming months may prove this to be rubbish but completely agree with CCM that I cannot fathom how this can be set in stone. It makes no sense whatsoever to be so to me.

That said gutfeeling you are clearly much closer to this than I am and I respect that and I welcome your insight as I am capable of sifting through different data points and reaching my own conclusion.

Also just to throw another spanner in the works ... another jp novice hurdler in the mix now and my guess more one for the supreme.

the trouble for gutfeeling is, he posted to help people, yet is hit with the normal pocket talking and views to back up peoples wagers. if you can pm any stuff i'd appreciate it gutfeeling, every little helps

Good thread this,very interesting reading.
Not sure why pocket talk has reared its ugly head and been mentioned though!!
All I have read is reasoned comments on possible targets for novice hurdlers, which we get every year.
I hop this pocket talk nonsense does not put off posters like Miltons, who should post more often on here, and imo is helping a great deal in restoring this forum to one that I used to really enjoy being part of.
We have lost far too many good posters in recent years, it would be good not to lose more and even better if we could get some back!!!

Thanks For your post Budd. I think that ‘pocket talk’ is inevitable as there is an obvious synergy between the opinion a person has and the investments that they make. For me most pocket talk is understandable, normal and harmless. There are however two exceptions imo that frustrate me to varying degrees.

1) when people lack the openmindedness to acknowledge, listen to or be influenced by another’s powerful and compelling argument/ opinion simply because it wouldnt suit their pocket. I have read and re read the posts on this thread and see absolutely no evidence of that. I think it is a very harsh accusation particularly as the judgement was made without asking anybody to clarify first.

2) this is my real beef. When high profile media pundits or representatives try and influence a trainer to run their horse in a particular race at the festival without declaring if they have a financial interest. For me the media companies shoul insist the individual declares any interest first so that the listener/ viewer has the context to take a balanced view. if the individual refuses they should not allow them to provide their opinion.

With regard to Budds wider view of the forum. I am sure very few people are interested in my forum history but fwiw this is my third attempt at giving the forum a go. I stopped the first time as I felt it was way too tribal ( which side of the pond, which trainer a horse was with e.t.c. E.t.c.) and the tribal nature was suppressing intelligent well thought through and productive positive debate. If I want tribal I will stick with football. Racing for me is better than that and while there are still a few people in the media who remain very tribal most people in the industry embrace and celebrate equine and human talent no matter where it originates from.

The seconomic time I stopped was because it started to get very political.  Large number of threads quickly descended into political debate, talk of racism, us and them, talk of persecution, anti British anti Irish and so on. very competitive and confrontational language. It was almost impossible to find any decent pure Cheltenham focussed debate.

I am giving it a third go only because I am passionate about racing and particularly passionate about Cheltenham. Like gutfeeling I try to help people if and when I can. The only difference as I see it between gut feelings posts and mine are he is sharing third party information that he feels may be of use to people and I am sharing first party opinion that may be of use to people. Everybody else has the freedom and right to discard either or both.

Brilliant thanks CCM

Can only agree with that. Latest on Percy is he is catching pigeons b t w

Why is the date on fatjockey displayed in yank mode, put me off for starters