Cheltenham Festival
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As someone who targets a few races each year, where there are liquid ante-post markets, I always try to look afterwards at what I got right and, more importantly, what I got wrong, as I look to lay and back throughout the ante post period.
I can't think of any punter who can try to compete unless they are always trying to get better. Much of what appears on this forum expresses strong views. which is what it's for, but there's a fine margin between a strong view, which can change as circumstances change, and intransigence, where people get to the "football supporter" mentality where they can only advance one line of thought.
I posted a summary of Gold Cup thoughts a week or so before the race and can now deliver my verdict on myself (if anyone is interested).
What I got right
Clan des Obeaux
"The former looked superb in the KG, laughing at Thistlecrack coming to the last, with the others well beaten. The style was impressive but the substance questionable and the same can be said of his subsequent win over Terrefort."
Presenting Percy
"All I can add is that this cannot have been the plan. Something must have happened to make him miss those races - I don't buy the ground argument - and I can't support him at current odds"
Native River
"Native River is game and honest but has had a serious attack of the slows this season and seems to be losing what pace he had. Of course, if the race is run on similar going to last year, he has a chance - though none in my view if it isn't - but even then I feel sure that one of the new challengers will be too classy."
Might Bite
"If Might Bite wins, I would be delighted - I really like him - but astonished. To come back from where he's been this season, on ground that will almost certainly be on the slow side, would be astonishing".
Thistlecrack
"I can't have Thistlecrack"
Bristol de Mai
"Bristol de Mai has looked overpriced for a long time. I've never worked out the T-D operation and never will, but his best form is better than almost everything in the field"
What I was half right, half wrong about
Bellshill
Bellshill ticks most of the boxes and must go close. But is he quite good enough? I have to say that just edging out Road to Respect, when the latter almost stopped at several fences in the back straight, doesn't strike me as being good enough to win a Gold Cup.
What I got wrong
My selection was Kemboy, the caveat being that "his jumping can leave a bit to be desired". Rather a lot as it happens.
But my greatest failure was to identify either of the first two.
Al Boum Photo I ignored. Partly because, a week before the race, he had drifted to around 24 and I thought he may be aiming at the Ryanair. I also felt his RSA performance last year could not be overlooked. If there's one theme that has emerged in recent times, it is that the top horses of one season are not necessarily the top performers in their novice year. Don Cossack, Sizing John and now Al Boum Photo were not among the leading performers as novices and, to widen the scope of this season's form, neither were Clan des Obeaux, Cyrname or Frodon. This is the main lesson I will take from my failure to identify this year's Gold Cup winner; don't rule out horses because of limitations from their novice season.
I also ignored Anibale Fly. Like many, I felt he needed heavy going to show to best advantage but he ended up running at least as well on better going. I won't beat myself up about him, although I might have noted how well he had run in his prep race over two and a half miles.
Any horse can fall and the fact that Kemboy did so simply has to be accepted. I will take some consolation if he turns out to be the horse I believe him to be.
I read much of the race well but was probably lazy in not taking seriously the claims of Al Boum Photo and Anibale Fly. There were previous pieces of form from both that stood up well and it can't be said that either performance was completely unexpected.
As a trader, rather than someone trying just to identify the winner, I gave myself 6 out of 10 for the return on investment. Must do better.
I can't think of any punter who can try to compete unless they are always trying to get better. Much of what appears on this forum expresses strong views. which is what it's for, but there's a fine margin between a strong view, which can change as circumstances change, and intransigence, where people get to the "football supporter" mentality where they can only advance one line of thought.
I posted a summary of Gold Cup thoughts a week or so before the race and can now deliver my verdict on myself (if anyone is interested).
What I got right
Clan des Obeaux
"The former looked superb in the KG, laughing at Thistlecrack coming to the last, with the others well beaten. The style was impressive but the substance questionable and the same can be said of his subsequent win over Terrefort."
Presenting Percy
"All I can add is that this cannot have been the plan. Something must have happened to make him miss those races - I don't buy the ground argument - and I can't support him at current odds"
Native River
"Native River is game and honest but has had a serious attack of the slows this season and seems to be losing what pace he had. Of course, if the race is run on similar going to last year, he has a chance - though none in my view if it isn't - but even then I feel sure that one of the new challengers will be too classy."
Might Bite
"If Might Bite wins, I would be delighted - I really like him - but astonished. To come back from where he's been this season, on ground that will almost certainly be on the slow side, would be astonishing".
Thistlecrack
"I can't have Thistlecrack"
Bristol de Mai
"Bristol de Mai has looked overpriced for a long time. I've never worked out the T-D operation and never will, but his best form is better than almost everything in the field"
What I was half right, half wrong about
Bellshill
Bellshill ticks most of the boxes and must go close. But is he quite good enough? I have to say that just edging out Road to Respect, when the latter almost stopped at several fences in the back straight, doesn't strike me as being good enough to win a Gold Cup.
What I got wrong
My selection was Kemboy, the caveat being that "his jumping can leave a bit to be desired". Rather a lot as it happens.
But my greatest failure was to identify either of the first two.
Al Boum Photo I ignored. Partly because, a week before the race, he had drifted to around 24 and I thought he may be aiming at the Ryanair. I also felt his RSA performance last year could not be overlooked. If there's one theme that has emerged in recent times, it is that the top horses of one season are not necessarily the top performers in their novice year. Don Cossack, Sizing John and now Al Boum Photo were not among the leading performers as novices and, to widen the scope of this season's form, neither were Clan des Obeaux, Cyrname or Frodon. This is the main lesson I will take from my failure to identify this year's Gold Cup winner; don't rule out horses because of limitations from their novice season.
I also ignored Anibale Fly. Like many, I felt he needed heavy going to show to best advantage but he ended up running at least as well on better going. I won't beat myself up about him, although I might have noted how well he had run in his prep race over two and a half miles.
Any horse can fall and the fact that Kemboy did so simply has to be accepted. I will take some consolation if he turns out to be the horse I believe him to be.
I read much of the race well but was probably lazy in not taking seriously the claims of Al Boum Photo and Anibale Fly. There were previous pieces of form from both that stood up well and it can't be said that either performance was completely unexpected.
As a trader, rather than someone trying just to identify the winner, I gave myself 6 out of 10 for the return on investment. Must do better.
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gutted just read you're post on the gold cup thread cyclops... i waited but thought you had lost interest and basically it wasn't an interesting thread for me, so i moved on but without aftertiming the only horse i wanted to talk about was the winner and wanted to see if you liked him or not without getting to bullish...anyway kemboy was the other horse of interest and basically i said to my friend, the only way he wins was to let him go to the lead as he basically pulls like a pig and won't drop the bridle if dropped in, anyway we will never know as he went so early, he will need to learn to settle in the future if he is to bag the big one
anyway disappointed i missed you're post but thanks for posting, at least you got off the fence in the end
unlike me who sat it out on here, which wasn't sporting but appreciate your thoughts and hopefully you will share them in the future as i am similar in my non biased view even if i'm on one, it takes me time to cogitate a race but every little helps
any thoughts for the big one at aintree cyclops or do you not do handicaps?
anyway disappointed i missed you're post but thanks for posting, at least you got off the fence in the end
unlike me who sat it out on here, which wasn't sporting but appreciate your thoughts and hopefully you will share them in the future as i am similar in my non biased view even if i'm on one, it takes me time to cogitate a race but every little helpsany thoughts for the big one at aintree cyclops or do you not do handicaps?
Excellent read.. I hadn't got a strong view on the Gold Cup so stayed with my bet on Percy after the RSA last year. TBH it was more of hope than actually fancying it,in regards to the horse not running I think they've made an absolute co*k up as regardless of what people say getting a spin a round Galway will not get the horse race fit. Fitness comes with racing and unfortunately PP had very little
Thanks harry.
I have never backed the winner of the Grand National and, much as I enjoy the race, would be the last person to ask for advice. My involvement financially is simply to dosh out money to my wife and four kids. If they back a winner, I pay them out, if they don't, my Betfair account covers the cost. I think that's called fatherhood.
I'd never lose interest harry, though I do tend to refrain from adding much to threads that disintegrate into personal slanging matches, which happens all too often. You'll never hear me insult anyone but I do withdraw from threads that become tedious battles between people whose every utterance emphasises their inadequacies.
Well done for backing ABP. Would have enjoyed reading more thoughts on him beforehand - it might have prompted me to look at him more seriously - but he did slip under so many people's radar that, despite starting at 12/1, he was barely mentioned.
I have never backed the winner of the Grand National and, much as I enjoy the race, would be the last person to ask for advice. My involvement financially is simply to dosh out money to my wife and four kids. If they back a winner, I pay them out, if they don't, my Betfair account covers the cost. I think that's called fatherhood.
I'd never lose interest harry, though I do tend to refrain from adding much to threads that disintegrate into personal slanging matches, which happens all too often. You'll never hear me insult anyone but I do withdraw from threads that become tedious battles between people whose every utterance emphasises their inadequacies.
Well done for backing ABP. Would have enjoyed reading more thoughts on him beforehand - it might have prompted me to look at him more seriously - but he did slip under so many people's radar that, despite starting at 12/1, he was barely mentioned.
yes i agree i can't be asked with some of the nonsense written and pocket talking, it makes me feel ill, hence my lack of posts, i did read people couldn't have the horse so just thought fair play, everybody handicaps horses differently i suppose and after monalee ran like a pig i wondered if i'd given him to much rope from last years RSA but basically i just loved his last 2 runs last season, especially against the mare at fairyhouse that was when i really started to like him and his run at punchestown just confirmed it. his run this year even though at a gaff track, just told me he had improved again from last season
Cyclops
If there's one theme that has emerged in recent times, it is that the top horses of one season are not necessarily the top performers in their novice year. Don Cossack, Sizing John and now Al Boum Photo were not among the leading performers as novices and, to widen the scope of this season's form, neither were Clan des Obeaux, Cyrname or Frodon. This is the main lesson I will take from my failure to identify this year's Gold Cup winner; don't rule out horses because of limitations from their novice season.
This is a really good point and it's so true that we have those images of festival success imprinted on our brains where we see horse A beat horse B and we take it as read that is the pecking order going forward full stop.
And because of this, even if you get early signs in the next season that one of the previous seasons "also rans" had taken a leap forward, the market is a little slower to react because as said of the festival form line holding firm in all of our minds.
If there's one theme that has emerged in recent times, it is that the top horses of one season are not necessarily the top performers in their novice year. Don Cossack, Sizing John and now Al Boum Photo were not among the leading performers as novices and, to widen the scope of this season's form, neither were Clan des Obeaux, Cyrname or Frodon. This is the main lesson I will take from my failure to identify this year's Gold Cup winner; don't rule out horses because of limitations from their novice season.
This is a really good point and it's so true that we have those images of festival success imprinted on our brains where we see horse A beat horse B and we take it as read that is the pecking order going forward full stop.
And because of this, even if you get early signs in the next season that one of the previous seasons "also rans" had taken a leap forward, the market is a little slower to react because as said of the festival form line holding firm in all of our minds.
To develop the point a little more, this year's Gold Cup turns course form on its head. Previous success around Cheltenham has often been seen as a highly significant benchmark for triumph at the Festival but look at this year's renewal.
The only horse in the top five to have won around Cheltenham was Native River and the past two winners of the RSA, the winner of the JLT and a three times Cheltenham winner were 8th, pulled up, pulled up and pulled up.
While there are a few horses who don't produce their best at Cheltenham, it is probably wise not to get fixated on that unless there is an obvious reason, such as Desert Orchid jumping to his right. Perhaps Clan Des Obeaux might be a case in point, though it could equally well be that he just didn't stay the trip.
None of the last five winners the Cheltenham Gold Cup had won over fences at Cheltenham previously (Coneygree had won twice over hurdles).
The only horse in the top five to have won around Cheltenham was Native River and the past two winners of the RSA, the winner of the JLT and a three times Cheltenham winner were 8th, pulled up, pulled up and pulled up.
While there are a few horses who don't produce their best at Cheltenham, it is probably wise not to get fixated on that unless there is an obvious reason, such as Desert Orchid jumping to his right. Perhaps Clan Des Obeaux might be a case in point, though it could equally well be that he just didn't stay the trip.
None of the last five winners the Cheltenham Gold Cup had won over fences at Cheltenham previously (Coneygree had won twice over hurdles).
Looking back now, Al Boum Photo certainly did have untapped potential, but he didn't appear on my radar either. I thought it was a really tough race to call as there was no one stand out in my view.
The only one I ever considered backing was Bristol de Mai, and thought he had a huge chance turning for home. There is no doubt whatsoever he saves his best for Haydock in the mud, but the way he smashed up the opposition on good ground at Haydock this year, I thought this might be his year...but not to be. He's been on the go for so long now (I remember him being antepost fav for the Triumph at one point), I'm not sure what he has left in the legs despite still being only eight.
I was disappointed not seeing Road to Respect in the lineup, I thought he'd earned his place having either won or placed in all his 3m G1 runs this year...although that didn't stop me backing him for the Ryanair.
The front three in the RSA all need to be respected next year, although I'd have more confidence in Topofthegame and Delta Work than I would Santini. Altior is the joker in the pack - Sizing John has recently proved that the step up from 2m to 3m2f in a short space of time is achievable. Defi Du Seuil couldn't be ruled out either, although the Ryanair looks like it'll be his race. He showed no signs of stopping in the JLT, and has beaten Topofthegame, albeit over a trip much more suited to Defi, but I think Defi is a stayer in the making as with most Triumph Hurdle winners.
All in all, I think next years race already looks a cracker with some good exciting novices and potentially Altior, alongside a young winner. After last years Gold Cup, Presenting Percy aside, there wasn't much new blood on the horizon at this point, so lots to look forward to.
The only one I ever considered backing was Bristol de Mai, and thought he had a huge chance turning for home. There is no doubt whatsoever he saves his best for Haydock in the mud, but the way he smashed up the opposition on good ground at Haydock this year, I thought this might be his year...but not to be. He's been on the go for so long now (I remember him being antepost fav for the Triumph at one point), I'm not sure what he has left in the legs despite still being only eight.
I was disappointed not seeing Road to Respect in the lineup, I thought he'd earned his place having either won or placed in all his 3m G1 runs this year...although that didn't stop me backing him for the Ryanair.
The front three in the RSA all need to be respected next year, although I'd have more confidence in Topofthegame and Delta Work than I would Santini. Altior is the joker in the pack - Sizing John has recently proved that the step up from 2m to 3m2f in a short space of time is achievable. Defi Du Seuil couldn't be ruled out either, although the Ryanair looks like it'll be his race. He showed no signs of stopping in the JLT, and has beaten Topofthegame, albeit over a trip much more suited to Defi, but I think Defi is a stayer in the making as with most Triumph Hurdle winners.
All in all, I think next years race already looks a cracker with some good exciting novices and potentially Altior, alongside a young winner. After last years Gold Cup, Presenting Percy aside, there wasn't much new blood on the horizon at this point, so lots to look forward to.
Well, without wanting to spout too much, Kemboy's win today makes me add some points to my 6/10 mark for this year's Gold Cup analysis.
Falls are part of racing but he was in a different league from Clan and Bristol today. Many are saying the King George will be ideal, and it may, but there's nothing to suggest the Gold Cup will not suit.
This horse has become some machine.
Falls are part of racing but he was in a different league from Clan and Bristol today. Many are saying the King George will be ideal, and it may, but there's nothing to suggest the Gold Cup will not suit.
This horse has become some machine.
well played cyclops and dont be too hard on yourself re the GC... K was taken out by PP at the first ...who knows what would have happened... the exciting thing is that WPM hasnt gotten to the bottom of the horse yet
Kemboys win should not be compared to what happened at cheltenhm.
Comparing cheltenham running with runs at flat tracks like aintree is silly at best.
Kemboy got into a well balanced routine settled jumping pace
Try doing that at cheltenham
The turns , gradients and cambers mean the horse is regularly changing strides and the jockeys are far more likely to make mistakes
Once again I question why people on here
Seem to think
Horses are machines and will repeat previous runs when in most races 80% or so do not run to form gained at other tracks in various goings and different time s of the year
By all means have an opinion , but think about the animals first
Comparing cheltenham running with runs at flat tracks like aintree is silly at best.
Kemboy got into a well balanced routine settled jumping pace
Try doing that at cheltenham
The turns , gradients and cambers mean the horse is regularly changing strides and the jockeys are far more likely to make mistakes
Once again I question why people on here
Seem to think
Horses are machines and will repeat previous runs when in most races 80% or so do not run to form gained at other tracks in various goings and different time s of the year
By all means have an opinion , but think about the animals first
Not disagreeing with any of that, except to say that, while a tight, flat track suits Kemboy perfectly, there's nothing yet to say that Cheltenham won't either.
Remember when Don Cossack demolished the Melling field and many felt he wouldn't be suited by Cheltenham and he then became the easiest Gold Cup winner in many a year?
My own view is that Kemboy yesterday showed himself the best staying chaser around and he could be a mighty force over the next few seasons.
Remember when Don Cossack demolished the Melling field and many felt he wouldn't be suited by Cheltenham and he then became the easiest Gold Cup winner in many a year?
My own view is that Kemboy yesterday showed himself the best staying chaser around and he could be a mighty force over the next few seasons.
Think another important thing to consider is the relative runs at Cheltenham.
Both CDO and BDM had hard races.
Kemboy did not.
As always time will tell, but hothing concrete as to which of those three would be the better at Cheltenham'2020.
Or indeed as to what would have happened if Kemboy had not gone early.
Both CDO and BDM had hard races.
Kemboy did not.
As always time will tell, but hothing concrete as to which of those three would be the better at Cheltenham'2020.
Or indeed as to what would have happened if Kemboy had not gone early.
The very impressive winner of the Gold Cup would be the best staying chaser around......imo.
You may be right buddeliea.
ABP won the Gold Cup very well. He could also have improvement in him.
However, Kemboy's dismissal yesterday of two Gold Cup principals was even better for my money. There's always the argument about how much a hard race takes out of a horse, but I incline to the view that it can be over-emphasised. The proximity of BDM and CDO to each other yesterday was not far off how they finished in the Gold Cup. I think CDO was flattered by his King George win (I posted as such on pre Cheltenham threads) and I'm already questioning this year's Gold Cup in terms of absolute quality. Anibale Fly is a dour stayer but hardly a horse of the highest class.
To downgrade Kemboy's win yesterday, you really do have to believe that his rivals seriously underperformed. Possible, but not my view.
ABP won the Gold Cup very well. He could also have improvement in him.
However, Kemboy's dismissal yesterday of two Gold Cup principals was even better for my money. There's always the argument about how much a hard race takes out of a horse, but I incline to the view that it can be over-emphasised. The proximity of BDM and CDO to each other yesterday was not far off how they finished in the Gold Cup. I think CDO was flattered by his King George win (I posted as such on pre Cheltenham threads) and I'm already questioning this year's Gold Cup in terms of absolute quality. Anibale Fly is a dour stayer but hardly a horse of the highest class.
To downgrade Kemboy's win yesterday, you really do have to believe that his rivals seriously underperformed. Possible, but not my view.
buddeliea • April 5, 2019 12:22 PM BST
Think another important thing to consider is the relative runs at Cheltenham.
Kemboy has had three goes at Cheltenham and his jumping (even in willoughby courts race over hurdles) left a lot to be desired. Landed awkwardly and blundered tags to his two chase races suggest its a question of balance to me. How do his relative runs at cheltenham do not match up to those of the two gold cup principals around cheltenham.?
Think another important thing to consider is the relative runs at Cheltenham.
Kemboy has had three goes at Cheltenham and his jumping (even in willoughby courts race over hurdles) left a lot to be desired. Landed awkwardly and blundered tags to his two chase races suggest its a question of balance to me. How do his relative runs at cheltenham do not match up to those of the two gold cup principals around cheltenham.?
By that I meant the runs at this years festival Irish........Kemboy going early and the other two having hard races.
Cyclops
ABP beat those two who were primed for the day whereas Kemboy beat them after they had had hard races.
Now I don't know how much difference that did or did not make in those respective races, but I do know its possible at least that Cheltenham may have made a difference to the performances of Kemboy, BDM and CDO.
Cyclops
ABP beat those two who were primed for the day whereas Kemboy beat them after they had had hard races.
Now I don't know how much difference that did or did not make in those respective races, but I do know its possible at least that Cheltenham may have made a difference to the performances of Kemboy, BDM and CDO.
Fair enough.
Aintree and Punchestown are great in that interpretation of post Cheltenham form is often very subjective.
But history tells me it's not a given that Cheltenham form is superior.
Aintree and Punchestown are great in that interpretation of post Cheltenham form is often very subjective.
But history tells me it's not a given that Cheltenham form is superior.
Absolutely mate
It’s why I am always wary of form after the festival for the following one.
Be interesting next season to see how these all fare especially against each other.
It’s why I am always wary of form after the festival for the following one.
Be interesting next season to see how these all fare especially against each other.
so you rate kemboy because he beat CDO who's form you dont rate ?
Why do you continue to compare flat track form
With undulating track form ?
Makes no sense to me at all
It takes a very very good and a very rare horse to dominate at both.
With undulating track form ?
Makes no sense to me at all
It takes a very very good and a very rare horse to dominate at both.
Cheltenham form is far more relevant at punchestown than aintree form
Also, how much of an advantage has it been to race prominently this week, just to emphasize the fact Min ended up looking like he'd get 3 miles standing on his head....that's how advantageous it was to race prominently!!!
I'd have to side with ABP myself out of the Mullins horses, he was a very impressive winner of the GC itself despite making mistakes including an absolute momentum stopper late on, but even after running over 3 miles at that point, immediately picked up again and went away!!! that was some performance.
At the prices though I'd be giving PP another chance at 16's, he was injured early and never went a yard, whatever your opinion is of him that was certainly not his true running and whereas this season you never "had" the price with him, we certainly do now and it's worth risking at that price as he's lost nothing credibility wise from the GC run, so he's still in the same spot for me going into next season as he was going into the GC but 3 times the price, with the likelihood that he'll have a more suitable prep next time round too.
I'd have to side with ABP myself out of the Mullins horses, he was a very impressive winner of the GC itself despite making mistakes including an absolute momentum stopper late on, but even after running over 3 miles at that point, immediately picked up again and went away!!! that was some performance.
At the prices though I'd be giving PP another chance at 16's, he was injured early and never went a yard, whatever your opinion is of him that was certainly not his true running and whereas this season you never "had" the price with him, we certainly do now and it's worth risking at that price as he's lost nothing credibility wise from the GC run, so he's still in the same spot for me going into next season as he was going into the GC but 3 times the price, with the likelihood that he'll have a more suitable prep next time round too.
duffy, yes front running was an advantage at Aintree. But I'm struggling to see what more Kemboy can do to be respected as a real top notcher.
irishone, I think you place far too much emphasis on different courses. A class horse will go on any course, and I believe Kemboy to be that. Certain horses come to the fore on certain courses and some are inconvenienced. But it's not something I think of as crucial to my understanding of a race in most circumstances. Probably Kempton is one example where certain horses noticeably struggle. To put it another way, how many top horses in recent times have been appreciably better or worse suited to Cheltenham than other courses?
irishone, I think you place far too much emphasis on different courses. A class horse will go on any course, and I believe Kemboy to be that. Certain horses come to the fore on certain courses and some are inconvenienced. But it's not something I think of as crucial to my understanding of a race in most circumstances. Probably Kempton is one example where certain horses noticeably struggle. To put it another way, how many top horses in recent times have been appreciably better or worse suited to Cheltenham than other courses?
Yes i agree
A top class horse will go on any course
But only the very very top
I watch a lot of point to points and pony races here
Last weekend had one in hunter trials
Young jocks always strugg le to get the horse balanced its about 50/50
Between their fault and the horses fault
Its what jump racing is all about
I will come back on your spsvific questioning
A top class horse will go on any course
But only the very very top
I watch a lot of point to points and pony races here
Last weekend had one in hunter trials
Young jocks always strugg le to get the horse balanced its about 50/50
Between their fault and the horses fault
Its what jump racing is all about
I will come back on your spsvific questioning
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