beware the monster performance.

I wouldn't call Sir Erec's run a monster performance. Can't honestly see what that race will have taken out of him. Otherwise agree that horses apparently winning easily by big margins can fail to back it up.

Agree when its one monster performance its hard to back it up. When they do it 3 or 4 times on the trot it just means they have become monsters

That handicapper that won last year's supreme

Sir Erec's performance would not have taken a lot out of him but might exemplify another reason to be cautious of monster performances, which is that they might depend on a particular set of circumstances that will not be repeated.

Paul Kealy in a recent Postcast pointed out that Sir Erec was allowed a soft lead from where he set a very slow time, then kicked on at the end (he could have added, while Tiger Tap Tap was boxed in). Hawk Wing's Lockinge might be another example.

and he cud have added was going nowhere at the time

interesting point. Over 30 years of going to the Festival, as a general rule, it pays me to avoid backing the shorties, especially those who have shortened because of a massive last time out performance. The odd exception arises when a horse is a proven champion. You were comfortably able to get Evens or 10/11 on the day for Big Bucks even though he had won the race once, and then twice, previously (and was unbeaten for two years +). The 3 horses Lewisham mentions have not proved themselves as champions.....yet. Paisley is up against a dual winner at Cheltenham. Apples the same. Sir Erec may be a putative champion but it is a terrible price. I may be tempted by him at 2/1 or so but not yet. It is psychologically difficult to see a horse win at the Festival that you fancy , but have not backed because of the price, but in the end it pays to watch them. Have a dabble on a 16/1 shot, lose...…...and then walk to the toddy bar.

Agree with that logic
remember watching samcro and altior
on the same day last year  no bets from me and
fantastic performances but running for the bookies
prefer the pleasure of backing balko de flos , penhill , relegate
at big odds any day
then there's the seconds ….. which for some reason
I cant seem to wash from the memory
Shantou flyer, mall dini, melon etc

a lot depends on the price. we end up backing horses that we know deep down are too short but justify it with the logic "it'll win anyway."

I think a prime example a few years ago was a horse called dunguib. this put up a "monster" performance in winning the bumper, and the hype associated with that performance lead to it being made very short for the supreme, despite the fact that it's jumping up to that point in it's hurdle prep runs had been unconvincing. like others, I was taken in by the hype.

another hype horse a couple of years ago was death duty. not sure it had ever run at Cheltenham, but the trainers positive comments about the horse and the fact that it had done well in it's prep runs meant it was sent off far too short for it's novice hurdle. and was duly trounced. I don't think death duty had ever put up a monster performance either, so was trading so short purely on the basis of hype.

I don't mind backing a horse after a monster performance if the price justifies it, for example kemboy I like for the gold cup, to my eyes this put up a "monster" performance in it's last run but is trading around 10-1, not 2-1.

I think death duty is a particularly important example because prior to him running at Cheltenham, he'd never won a race starting any bigger than 6/4. so basically was well placed, and hadn't had to do anything out of the ordinary to win his races.

so look for that one horse that has achieved the outlier performance, against the odds is my advice.

another "monster" performance in the adonis, that made the nicky Henderson horse very short for the triumph. but then we learned later the time was quite slow compared to the novice hurdle later in the card.

that horse is a lay for me if it runs in the triumph. won't be able to win that on the snaff, and lacks experience. Ireland have a lock on that race.

kemboy was gifted a lead the last time jockey said they went very slow ,even when we took it up we still went slow nothing challenged us ! me i am  not saying he wont win but bear that in mind

lewisham ranger 23 Feb 19 16:16 
another "monster" performance in the adonis, that made the nicky Henderson horse very short for the triumph. but then we learned later the time was quite slow compared to the novice hurdle later in the card.

that horse is a lay for me if it runs in the triumph. won't be able to win that on the snaff, and lacks experience. Ireland have a lock on that race.


SE went slow in the spring juvenile and still was left alone in front, his jumping was absolutely shocking on debut when he had horses around him, if he's messed about in the Triumph his jumping could suffer, on balance 6/4 is just too short IMO.

agree duffy,  rarely  a layer but at 6/4 or shorter its tempting   .

maybe sir erec isn't the real deal but he's one of the most magnificent horses I've even for a long time... that build of horse should be made for Cheltenham.