Cheltenham Festival
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Sometimes this race can be seen as a poor relation to the Gold Cup but this year there a possibility that we could see a cracking race (perhaps best ever) contested by some really decent horses.
The likes of Min, Un De Sceax, Waiting Patiently, Footpad, Top Notch and Politologue. This could be the most competitive championship race of the week.
I think Waiting Patiently is the bet at 7/1 if you could trust he’ll turn up. I can see him being withdrawn on the day even if the ground is good/gs. Therefore I think he can’t be backed unless you take 5/1 NRNB and maybe that is the play.
I can’t have Un De Sceaux as 11 year olds don’t have a great record and didn’t seem to stay last year although pulled hard early in the race. Min and Footpad are difficult to weigh up..Min seems a bit of a thinker and Footpad could be tripless.
Politologue’s form has a few holes in it now after Kempton and Cheltenham might be missed to wait for Aintree. He’s not on my shortlist. As is Top Notch who is a great horse but suited by flatter trackers like ascot and Kempton. You’ll need to at the top of your game to win this.
So the horse I’m looking at currently is Monalee. He’s run well at Cheltenham finishing 2nd both the Albert Bartlett and RSA where he didn’t stay the 3 miles. The 2.5 miles is perfect for this good jumping son of Milan and I can see him leading all the way. The major danger would be Waiting Patiently If he ran so I’ll have a cover bet on him.
Monalee E/W 12/1 and Waiting Patiently 5/1 NRNB.
Any thoughts ?
The likes of Min, Un De Sceax, Waiting Patiently, Footpad, Top Notch and Politologue. This could be the most competitive championship race of the week.
I think Waiting Patiently is the bet at 7/1 if you could trust he’ll turn up. I can see him being withdrawn on the day even if the ground is good/gs. Therefore I think he can’t be backed unless you take 5/1 NRNB and maybe that is the play.
I can’t have Un De Sceaux as 11 year olds don’t have a great record and didn’t seem to stay last year although pulled hard early in the race. Min and Footpad are difficult to weigh up..Min seems a bit of a thinker and Footpad could be tripless.
Politologue’s form has a few holes in it now after Kempton and Cheltenham might be missed to wait for Aintree. He’s not on my shortlist. As is Top Notch who is a great horse but suited by flatter trackers like ascot and Kempton. You’ll need to at the top of your game to win this.
So the horse I’m looking at currently is Monalee. He’s run well at Cheltenham finishing 2nd both the Albert Bartlett and RSA where he didn’t stay the 3 miles. The 2.5 miles is perfect for this good jumping son of Milan and I can see him leading all the way. The major danger would be Waiting Patiently If he ran so I’ll have a cover bet on him.
Monalee E/W 12/1 and Waiting Patiently 5/1 NRNB.
Any thoughts ?
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I think politiologue is an underrated horse and presents terrific value as a back bet if you can get NRNB. I couldnt get on any of willies runners ante post because his plans change like the wind. Richie rich seems to have lost the midas touch for me so id have to take on min. Underso would have serious place prospects. Personally i have always liked the ryanair despite its lower status in regards to championship races. You get some real good horses in it and if all these were to lineup it will be a thrilling contest im sure.
Politologue doesn't seem to get on with Cheltenham, had a few tries there now and never featured
Was having a look at potential bets in this race over the weekend and while he probably is still a little bit under appreciated I have to agree with the blood that Politologue hasn’t shown his best at Cheltenham.
The one i am considering after a decent comeback run yesterday is Fox Norton who is the opposite and seems to love the place.
Just not sure what the plan is with him, but 16/1 looks fair to me.
The one i am considering after a decent comeback run yesterday is Fox Norton who is the opposite and seems to love the place.
Just not sure what the plan is with him, but 16/1 looks fair to me.
*the bloob not the blood (bl00dy autocorrect!)
You missed BALKO DE FLOS , a big threat, last years winner.
Looks good distance for.him in same conditions monalee would like.
Min is a threat i agree but the real danger is meades winner today.
Cant have WP , only just done cc before cc could not go bdf pace
All about opinions
That 12\1 in the best mate enclosure on bdf is still a great day !
Looks good distance for.him in same conditions monalee would like.
Min is a threat i agree but the real danger is meades winner today.
Cant have WP , only just done cc before cc could not go bdf pace
All about opinions
That 12\1 in the best mate enclosure on bdf is still a great day !
Waiting Patiently would be my tentative pick at this stage as he's probably!!
a grade 1 horse who'll probably!!! have his best trip and he'll be taking on horses that are either a bit old UDS or horses that fall into the "admirable but just below the best" bracket.
a grade 1 horse who'll probably!!! have his best trip and he'll be taking on horses that are either a bit old UDS or horses that fall into the "admirable but just below the best" bracket.
WP would be the one for me with Min the other; 11/2 (nrnb) the former is a betting proposition, I think.
WP at 11/2 NRNB is a great bet. Surely this race is likely to be easier than the King George where he was 4/1 (without the added question marks over staying). If he was to run I doubt he'd be bigger than 3/1 or 100/30...or even shorter. I've just topped up 
We just need a soft Cheltenham.
Irish I did think of adding Balko but he seems so out of form I don't think he'll figure unless he shows some spark. I backed him last year after going to the Cheltenham preview in Morden so have a soft spot for him also.
We just need a soft Cheltenham.Irish I did think of adding Balko but he seems so out of form I don't think he'll figure unless he shows some spark. I backed him last year after going to the Cheltenham preview in Morden so have a soft spot for him also.
Top Notch for me at this stage
One of my fav races this,Looks a good renewal right now, hopefully it stays that way.
One of my fav races this,Looks a good renewal right now, hopefully it stays that way.
Morden ? Was that in the pub opposite the station ? Garveys by any chance
It was Irish, always a good night and chance to speak with the jockeys at the break. Will be there again this year as always a good source of info on the Irish dark horses.
Hibore could you possibly remind the owner to kindly return the road signs to the good people of glenamaddy , county galway because we haven't got a fecking clue where we are supposed to be going !
Could politologue miss the festival and go to aintree? bloob, after having a look you are right he doesnt seem to go well at cheltenham. there is something about the horse i really like and i would like to see him in the ryanair. His entry for the QM is interesting. i can see him running in that due to altior scaring away most. He is a nice price for place prospects.
Who knows, he may evn win.
there is a possiblity that altior may fall, any horse can meet one wrong theyre only animals although altior is a beast it is a horserace .
Who knows, he may evn win.
there is a possiblity that altior may fall, any horse can meet one wrong theyre only animals although altior is a beast it is a horserace .
Politologue ran perfectly well last year, travelled and jumped well but got outpaced once they turned in, he just needs further, he'd be interesting in the Ryanair.
Didn't Nicholls say that 3 miles would suit him best before the King George. 
Yeh,i thought he did.
Maybe they are rethinking after the KG.
Looks to me like a horse that aint quick enough for 2m.and dont stay well over 3m -3m plus.
So Ryanair probably best option for him if going to Cheltenham.
Maybe they are rethinking after the KG.
Looks to me like a horse that aint quick enough for 2m.and dont stay well over 3m -3m plus.
So Ryanair probably best option for him if going to Cheltenham.
Has politologue won on an undulating track ? Out and out galloper for me , will hit the front in the cc and go for it .....but wont like the humps and bumps
prior to Kempton Nicholls said horse not suited to Cheltenham, owner desperate for a Gold Cup win, but he would prefer Aintree and his prime target was the King George,what a rethink has decided yet to come to light.
"Tout Est Permis is in good form since Thurles," said Meade. "Eddie (O'Leary, racing manager) is quite keen that he'd run in the Ryanair if everything goes well and the ground is soft.
Does that mean if it aint soft hes going Gold Cup?
Does that mean if it aint soft hes going Gold Cup?
Saturday is D Day with both my fancies running. Might have a double 4/1 and 13/8 
Bachasson is the biggest danger to percy for me at the weekend and must be heading for the ryanair. The tramore win still sticks in the memory and willies horse has been winning in ground that doesnt suit him. Supposedly keeping him hurdling , but here he is in a chase over his distance and will definitely put it up to PP over a distance that doesnt suit pp so much. He is in willies first division of chasers now alongside kemboy, bellshill and invitation.
If Monalee cannot beat PP in the Red Mills Chase his Gold Cup participation will probably be scrapped with the Ryanair a near certainty unless his trainer opts for either Aintree or Punchestown; 4/1 Monalee and 13/8 Waiting Patiently (weather could be a concern) is value if ground does not firm up for the latter.
PP needs to finish at least 2nd similar to last year when behind Our Duke (OD) - trip was inadequate for OD too - despite an inadequate trip to maintain his position at the head of the present Gold Cup market. If he wins well his price will probably contract further otherwise a walk into oblivion unless something untoward could be found.
But 1st let's hope PP turns up.
PP needs to finish at least 2nd similar to last year when behind Our Duke (OD) - trip was inadequate for OD too - despite an inadequate trip to maintain his position at the head of the present Gold Cup market. If he wins well his price will probably contract further otherwise a walk into oblivion unless something untoward could be found.
But 1st let's hope PP turns up.
Why would Monalee go for the Gold Cup if he won on Saturday Imp ? Surely sticking over Ryanair trip would be sensible ?
Hibore, I was not inferring that even though my previous post might have sounded/alluded to it. However, what I meant was if Monalee was unable to beat PP over 20f Monalee would have no chance beating PP over a longer trip, all things being equal; the Ryanair would probably be his race at Cheltenham or wait for Aintree or Punchestown instead.
I'll probably lay PP at odds-on in the Exchange when the market opens (and Gold Cup too) as I believe he's very vulnerable over this shorter just as he was last year against a stout stayer Our Duke.
I'll probably lay PP at odds-on in the Exchange when the market opens (and Gold Cup too) as I believe he's very vulnerable over this shorter just as he was last year against a stout stayer Our Duke.
I’m happy enough with today’s race and associated odds
I think Waiting Patiently needed the race today after been inactive for nearly a year - he was brought down at Kempton. Also, I believe he gave an easy lead to the winner Cyrname who is improving; 13 here and 8/1 (Boyles nrnb).
So your 11\2 nrnb is no longer a great bet ? Or do you still believe it is ?
My main bet is Monalee @ 12/1 (see below) with half my stake on WP at 5/1 and 11/2. The ground was too fast yesterday for WP and you’ll only see him at Cheltenham if the ground is officially soft. On that ground he’s a player still.
So the horse I’m looking at currently is Monalee. He’s run well at Cheltenham finishing 2nd both the Albert Bartlett and RSA where he didn’t stay the 3 miles. The 2.5 miles is perfect for this good jumping son of Milan and I can see him leading all the way. The major danger would be Waiting Patiently If he ran so I’ll have a cover bet on him.
Monalee E/W 12/1 and Waiting Patiently 5/1 NRNB.
So the horse I’m looking at currently is Monalee. He’s run well at Cheltenham finishing 2nd both the Albert Bartlett and RSA where he didn’t stay the 3 miles. The 2.5 miles is perfect for this good jumping son of Milan and I can see him leading all the way. The major danger would be Waiting Patiently If he ran so I’ll have a cover bet on him.
Monalee E/W 12/1 and Waiting Patiently 5/1 NRNB.
Reading Mullins ramblings he thinks that Footpad is potentially a staying chaser - gone NRNB for this race on this as I can't see them taking on Altior in the QMCC and he won't be in the GC.
11/2 nrnb was not aa bad price, of course 8/1 nrnb is better - hindsight is a wonderful and rewarding thing, as always; the long inactivity plus held-back too far from the winner (gifted an easy lead) could not have helped his course yesterday, I believe. Another day perhaps.
I can’t see him running Imp. Ground would need to be soft and unless we have a wet week leading into Cheltenham I doubt the watering will be enough.
Monalee looks a player now though
Monalee looks a player now though
Most love Monalee whilst crabbing PPercy who THRASHED him... bizarre behaviour on the forum this year lol.
Both look great to me and whilst PP has had an unusual prep watch the 2018 RSA again.
I got 7/1 Footpad - 6/1 still available with shysports nrnb.
Both look great to me and whilst PP has had an unusual prep watch the 2018 RSA again.
I got 7/1 Footpad - 6/1 still available with shysports nrnb.
I don’t anybody on here thinks Percy is a bad horse, obviously he’s not. It’s the price that was wrong and that’s what the discussion is about.
Monalee likewise is running over his correct trip now and was 12/1. Is he a good bet at 5/1 probably not (he’s no world beater).
Monalee likewise is running over his correct trip now and was 12/1. Is he a good bet at 5/1 probably not (he’s no world beater).
hibore
i am a big fan of monalee hopefully the ryanair pocket talk but he would not be out of place in the gold cup however taking nothing away from rachel blackmore would you not think its a negative if she was to ride at cheltenham ?
i am a big fan of monalee hopefully the ryanair pocket talk but he would not be out of place in the gold cup however taking nothing away from rachel blackmore would you not think its a negative if she was to ride at cheltenham ?
No goody I spend a lot of the national hunt season going over to Ireland and have absolutely no problems backing a horse with her on board however Cheltenham is not the premier league it’s the World Cup and the likes of fehily Russel and Kennedy are better that includes better than all the other male jockeys.
Monalee shouldn't go anywhere near a Gold Cup. They made a mistake last year and the Gold Cup is an extra two furlongs. He likes to dictate (unlikely against Native River) and in any case doesn't stay well enough. Those advocating glorious failure obviously haven't punted him the Ryanair. It would be a pointless exercise. You don't remember horses who finish fifth or sixth in a Gold Cup. It is about actually winning a Grade 1 race and what suits the horse best.
I know exactly what you're saying Foxy, just the way you said it. She's no Fehily or Russell regarding Festival experience but it wouldn't put me off backing one if she was aboard.
Differentdrum I think and hope he will go down the Ryanair route but don’t accept the horse wouldn’t stay in a gold cup hopefully we won’t get to find out.
After yesterday wasn’t that impressed with Monalee,Waiting Patiently & those in behind.Agree with some others earlier on in the thread think Tout Es Permis is a sporting bet @20/1 NRNB B364..
Waiting Patiently would be unlikely runner at Cheltenham unless it's soft or worse; there's always Aintree and punchestown, but I do not think he'd a Gold Cup horse given he gave up the chase so willingly at the business end despite probably not fully race fit.
As for Monalee, I'm fairly certain he'll do down the Ryanair route, and not the Gold Cup. If the latter, I'd rather have Frodon than him, and both would have a next to 'zero' chance of winning, all things being equal.
Cyrname would be a strong contender for the Ryanair, I firmly believe, but connections will not supplement him for the festival, why? He'd only run well going right-handed!
As for Monalee, I'm fairly certain he'll do down the Ryanair route, and not the Gold Cup. If the latter, I'd rather have Frodon than him, and both would have a next to 'zero' chance of winning, all things being equal.
Cyrname would be a strong contender for the Ryanair, I firmly believe, but connections will not supplement him for the festival, why? He'd only run well going right-handed!
I couldn't back Monalee in any race personally, to me he's just a bit tripless, I don't like his finishing effort in any race in relation to the 3/4 of the race he's just run.
Look at yesterday, that was an out and out stayer who was closing him down over 2.5 miles, they were clear of another confirmed stayer and a horse that barely ever jumped a fence adequately in his life.
Monalee is a horse whose going to be one of those horses that build a good book of collateral form throughout his career but come the end won't have fulfilled his apparent potential IMO, I'd be amazed if he can finish off a Ryanair well enough against better 2.5 milers.
Look at yesterday, that was an out and out stayer who was closing him down over 2.5 miles, they were clear of another confirmed stayer and a horse that barely ever jumped a fence adequately in his life.
Monalee is a horse whose going to be one of those horses that build a good book of collateral form throughout his career but come the end won't have fulfilled his apparent potential IMO, I'd be amazed if he can finish off a Ryanair well enough against better 2.5 milers.
The 3 most probable winner eg Min (M), Waiting Patiently (WP) and Cyrname (C) are unlikely runners eg M is Footpad dependent; WP, ground; C, nature of course. Even Frodon is unlikely thus connections of Monalee might need to be certified if binning this race.
Al bhoum photo is a possible runner for the Ryanair that would uranate on my chips in two ways
Monalee now 4/1 NRNB so we have decent bet at 12/1 ew.
On the Wednesday evening of last years festival I had two bets for this years festival Samcro at 12 for the champion hurdle and monalee at 16/1 for the Ryanair after last seasons festival I was a little disappointed in his run at punchestown where at best he would have been 2 nd but for falling 2 out however I was overall happy with my anti post bet even suggesting on the presenting Percy thread on October 13th that 14/1 for the Ryan air was a much better bet than Percy for the gold cup,however since then monalee has ran 3 times and whilst doing nothing wrong in any of those races 50 weeks on from the bet I don’t feel any more confident,hopefully my first thoughts were the right ones I certainly wouldn’t like to see al bhoum photo redirected to the Ryanair.
no surprise, waiting patiently will not run.
that's probably it for another season.
that's probably it for another season.
Yep, no surprise there, but still a disappointment despite the likelihood of his ground come wednesday given the forecast showers; more pain and prolonged uncertainties regarding his (possible) participation in the Blue Riband next year unless he's retired by then.
My question to connections is why not run to see if he's Cheltenham conducive given his ground?
My question to connections is why not run to see if he's Cheltenham conducive given his ground?
Looking more and more like Footpad goes here, I think that current 5/1 will look big on the day IMO.
^^
Ya, if so. But nrnb a must given the stable and the Vautour shenanigan!
Ya, if so. But nrnb a must given the stable and the Vautour shenanigan!
cheers budd may have got a bit lucky with it didnt fancy it strongly ,just one of those when trawling through the markets on here saw it was a big price and backed it ,some go your way many dont though !
Noel spoke publically he's favouring road to respect for the ryanair
Road to Respect still entered in ryanair and Gold Cup,Tout Et Permis only the Ryanair.
He also said touts est permis wont be going if road to respect is in
be better leaving Road To Respect at home if its going to jump like it did against Bellshill.
personally Deptford i really rate this horse as one to follow and liked him as a Gold Cup outsider has done nothing but improve and i dont think Gigginetown have a better altrnative will be gutted if he doesnt come at all.
Same here lockup the moneys down at massive oddx
The other one that has been totally overlooked is BALKO
WON THE galwsy plate
Won this last year
loves the soft, heavier the better
Throw in a bit of rain
Loves it .....look at his plate win
.....and it wasnt good either !
The other one that has been totally overlooked is BALKO
WON THE galwsy plate
Won this last year
loves the soft, heavier the better
Throw in a bit of rain
Loves it .....look at his plate win
.....and it wasnt good either !
well if he doesnt run Irish may well have a bit on Balko e.w.
NOTE TO SELF... see result, bare a mention of the first two home - antepost nightmare !
Frodon (FR) 7, SP 9/2 Paul Nicholls Miss B Frost
Aso (FR) 9, SP 33/1 Miss Venetia Williams Charlie Deutsch
Road To Respect (IRE) 8, SP 9/2 Noel Meade S W Flanagan
Monalee (IRE) 8, SP 5/1 Henry De Bromhead Rachael Blackmore
Frodon (FR) 7, SP 9/2 Paul Nicholls Miss B Frost
Aso (FR) 9, SP 33/1 Miss Venetia Williams Charlie Deutsch
Road To Respect (IRE) 8, SP 9/2 Noel Meade S W Flanagan
Monalee (IRE) 8, SP 5/1 Henry De Bromhead Rachael Blackmore
On this seasons evidence monalee is a good horse no more no less.
I said earlier on a Monalee discussion somewhere that I just don't like his finishing efforts regardless of trip, he looks like he'll always be the decent placed horse over and over again, I think they should try sending him right out in trip, even contesting a national in time, where he might travel with his relative class and be able to plug on to victory.
Perhaps the Kerry national Duffy early season then take it from there.
Re: Monalee. I agree, a real test of stamina eg 4m or Nationals could be the key otherwise he'd only win in Ireland without the horses he finished behind in the Ryanair; if Presenting Percy could beat him little prospect of being competitive over 3m or less at any future Festival, I'd imagine.
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