Cheltenham Festival
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Sometimes this race can be seen as a poor relation to the Gold Cup but this year there a possibility that we could see a cracking race (perhaps best ever) contested by some really decent horses.
The likes of Min, Un De Sceax, Waiting Patiently, Footpad, Top Notch and Politologue. This could be the most competitive championship race of the week.
I think Waiting Patiently is the bet at 7/1 if you could trust he’ll turn up. I can see him being withdrawn on the day even if the ground is good/gs. Therefore I think he can’t be backed unless you take 5/1 NRNB and maybe that is the play.
I can’t have Un De Sceaux as 11 year olds don’t have a great record and didn’t seem to stay last year although pulled hard early in the race. Min and Footpad are difficult to weigh up..Min seems a bit of a thinker and Footpad could be tripless.
Politologue’s form has a few holes in it now after Kempton and Cheltenham might be missed to wait for Aintree. He’s not on my shortlist. As is Top Notch who is a great horse but suited by flatter trackers like ascot and Kempton. You’ll need to at the top of your game to win this.
So the horse I’m looking at currently is Monalee. He’s run well at Cheltenham finishing 2nd both the Albert Bartlett and RSA where he didn’t stay the 3 miles. The 2.5 miles is perfect for this good jumping son of Milan and I can see him leading all the way. The major danger would be Waiting Patiently If he ran so I’ll have a cover bet on him.
Monalee E/W 12/1 and Waiting Patiently 5/1 NRNB.
Any thoughts ?
The likes of Min, Un De Sceax, Waiting Patiently, Footpad, Top Notch and Politologue. This could be the most competitive championship race of the week.
I think Waiting Patiently is the bet at 7/1 if you could trust he’ll turn up. I can see him being withdrawn on the day even if the ground is good/gs. Therefore I think he can’t be backed unless you take 5/1 NRNB and maybe that is the play.
I can’t have Un De Sceaux as 11 year olds don’t have a great record and didn’t seem to stay last year although pulled hard early in the race. Min and Footpad are difficult to weigh up..Min seems a bit of a thinker and Footpad could be tripless.
Politologue’s form has a few holes in it now after Kempton and Cheltenham might be missed to wait for Aintree. He’s not on my shortlist. As is Top Notch who is a great horse but suited by flatter trackers like ascot and Kempton. You’ll need to at the top of your game to win this.
So the horse I’m looking at currently is Monalee. He’s run well at Cheltenham finishing 2nd both the Albert Bartlett and RSA where he didn’t stay the 3 miles. The 2.5 miles is perfect for this good jumping son of Milan and I can see him leading all the way. The major danger would be Waiting Patiently If he ran so I’ll have a cover bet on him.
Monalee E/W 12/1 and Waiting Patiently 5/1 NRNB.
Any thoughts ?
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I think politiologue is an underrated horse and presents terrific value as a back bet if you can get NRNB. I couldnt get on any of willies runners ante post because his plans change like the wind. Richie rich seems to have lost the midas touch for me so id have to take on min. Underso would have serious place prospects. Personally i have always liked the ryanair despite its lower status in regards to championship races. You get some real good horses in it and if all these were to lineup it will be a thrilling contest im sure.
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Politologue doesn't seem to get on with Cheltenham, had a few tries there now and never featured
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Was having a look at potential bets in this race over the weekend and while he probably is still a little bit under appreciated I have to agree with the blood that Politologue hasn’t shown his best at Cheltenham.
The one i am considering after a decent comeback run yesterday is Fox Norton who is the opposite and seems to love the place. Just not sure what the plan is with him, but 16/1 looks fair to me. |
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*the bloob not the blood (bl00dy autocorrect!)
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You missed BALKO DE FLOS , a big threat, last years winner.
Looks good distance for.him in same conditions monalee would like. Min is a threat i agree but the real danger is meades winner today. Cant have WP , only just done cc before cc could not go bdf pace All about opinions That 12\1 in the best mate enclosure on bdf is still a great day ! |
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Waiting Patiently would be my tentative pick at this stage as he's probably!!
 a grade 1 horse who'll probably!!! have his best trip and he'll be taking on horses that are either a bit old UDS or horses that fall into the "admirable but just below the best" bracket. |
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WP would be the one for me with Min the other; 11/2 (nrnb) the former is a betting proposition, I think.
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WP at 11/2 NRNB is a great bet. Surely this race is likely to be easier than the King George where he was 4/1 (without the added question marks over staying). If he was to run I doubt he'd be bigger than 3/1 or 100/30...or even shorter. I've just topped up
 We just need a soft Cheltenham.Irish I did think of adding Balko but he seems so out of form I don't think he'll figure unless he shows some spark. I backed him last year after going to the Cheltenham preview in Morden so have a soft spot for him also. |
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Top Notch for me at this stage
One of my fav races this,Looks a good renewal right now, hopefully it stays that way. |
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Morden ? Was that in the pub opposite the station ? Garveys by any chance
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It was Irish, always a good night and chance to speak with the jockeys at the break. Will be there again this year as always a good source of info on the Irish dark horses.
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Hibore could you possibly remind the owner to kindly return the road signs to the good people of glenamaddy , county galway because we haven't got a fecking clue where we are supposed to be going !
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Could politologue miss the festival and go to aintree? bloob, after having a look you are right he doesnt seem to go well at cheltenham. there is something about the horse i really like and i would like to see him in the ryanair. His entry for the QM is interesting. i can see him running in that due to altior scaring away most. He is a nice price for place prospects.
Who knows, he may evn win. there is a possiblity that altior may fall, any horse can meet one wrong theyre only animals although altior is a beast it is a horserace . |
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Politologue ran perfectly well last year, travelled and jumped well but got outpaced once they turned in, he just needs further, he'd be interesting in the Ryanair.
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2m Not his optimum then?
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Didn't Nicholls say that 3 miles would suit him best before the King George.
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Yeh,i thought he did.
Maybe they are rethinking after the KG. Looks to me like a horse that aint quick enough for 2m.and dont stay well over 3m -3m plus. So Ryanair probably best option for him if going to Cheltenham. |
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Has politologue won on an undulating track ? Out and out galloper for me , will hit the front in the cc and go for it .....but wont like the humps and bumps
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prior to Kempton Nicholls said horse not suited to Cheltenham, owner desperate for a Gold Cup win, but he would prefer Aintree and his prime target was the King George,what a rethink has decided yet to come to light.
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"Tout Est Permis is in good form since Thurles," said Meade. "Eddie (O'Leary, racing manager) is quite keen that he'd run in the Ryanair if everything goes well and the ground is soft.
Does that mean if it aint soft hes going Gold Cup? |
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Saturday is D Day with both my fancies running. Might have a double 4/1 and 13/8
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Bachasson is the biggest danger to percy for me at the weekend and must be heading for the ryanair. The tramore win still sticks in the memory and willies horse has been winning in ground that doesnt suit him. Supposedly keeping him hurdling , but here he is in a chase over his distance and will definitely put it up to PP over a distance that doesnt suit pp so much. He is in willies first division of chasers now alongside kemboy, bellshill and invitation.
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If Monalee cannot beat PP in the Red Mills Chase his Gold Cup participation will probably be scrapped with the Ryanair a near certainty unless his trainer opts for either Aintree or Punchestown; 4/1 Monalee and 13/8 Waiting Patiently (weather could be a concern) is value if ground does not firm up for the latter.
PP needs to finish at least 2nd similar to last year when behind Our Duke (OD) - trip was inadequate for OD too - despite an inadequate trip to maintain his position at the head of the present Gold Cup market. If he wins well his price will probably contract further otherwise a walk into oblivion unless something untoward could be found. But 1st let's hope PP turns up. |
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Im sure henry will totally agree with you !
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Why would Monalee go for the Gold Cup if he won on Saturday Imp ? Surely sticking over Ryanair trip would be sensible ?
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Hibore, I was not inferring that even though my previous post might have sounded/alluded to it. However, what I meant was if Monalee was unable to beat PP over 20f Monalee would have no chance beating PP over a longer trip, all things being equal; the Ryanair would probably be his race at Cheltenham or wait for Aintree or Punchestown instead.
I'll probably lay PP at odds-on in the Exchange when the market opens (and Gold Cup too) as I believe he's very vulnerable over this shorter just as he was last year against a stout stayer Our Duke. |
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I’m happy enough with today’s race and associated odds
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I think Waiting Patiently needed the race today after been inactive for nearly a year - he was brought down at Kempton. Also, I believe he gave an easy lead to the winner Cyrname who is improving; 13 here and 8/1 (Boyles nrnb).
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So your 11\2 nrnb is no longer a great bet ? Or do you still believe it is ?
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My main bet is Monalee @ 12/1 (see below) with half my stake on WP at 5/1 and 11/2. The ground was too fast yesterday for WP and you’ll only see him at Cheltenham if the ground is officially soft. On that ground he’s a player still.
So the horse I’m looking at currently is Monalee. He’s run well at Cheltenham finishing 2nd both the Albert Bartlett and RSA where he didn’t stay the 3 miles. The 2.5 miles is perfect for this good jumping son of Milan and I can see him leading all the way. The major danger would be Waiting Patiently If he ran so I’ll have a cover bet on him. Monalee E/W 12/1 and Waiting Patiently 5/1 NRNB. |
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Reading Mullins ramblings he thinks that Footpad is potentially a staying chaser - gone NRNB for this race on this as I can't see them taking on Altior in the QMCC and he won't be in the GC.
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11/2 nrnb was not aa bad price, of course 8/1 nrnb is better - hindsight is a wonderful and rewarding thing, as always; the long inactivity plus held-back too far from the winner (gifted an easy lead) could not have helped his course yesterday, I believe. Another day perhaps.
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I can’t see him running Imp. Ground would need to be soft and unless we have a wet week leading into Cheltenham I doubt the watering will be enough.
Monalee looks a player now though |
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Most love Monalee whilst crabbing PPercy who THRASHED him... bizarre behaviour on the forum this year lol.
Both look great to me and whilst PP has had an unusual prep watch the 2018 RSA again. I got 7/1 Footpad - 6/1 still available with shysports nrnb. |
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I don’t anybody on here thinks Percy is a bad horse, obviously he’s not. It’s the price that was wrong and that’s what the discussion is about.
Monalee likewise is running over his correct trip now and was 12/1. Is he a good bet at 5/1 probably not (he’s no world beater). |
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Footpad NRNB @ 6/1 is a great bet by the way.
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hibore
i am a big fan of monalee hopefully the ryanair pocket talk but he would not be out of place in the gold cup however taking nothing away from rachel blackmore would you not think its a negative if she was to ride at cheltenham ? |
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How is that taking nothing away from her?
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No goody I spend a lot of the national hunt season going over to Ireland and have absolutely no problems backing a horse with her on board however Cheltenham is not the premier league it’s the World Cup and the likes of fehily Russel and Kennedy are better that includes better than all the other male jockeys.
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