Yep, good price that imo

tbh going off Bellshill a bit. is he really good enough to win a gold cup? finished out with the washing in his supreme, would a gold cup winner really do that? have got an ante-post voucher on him at 12-1 though.

The worry with bellshill is his poor record on the course
Obviously doesnt like either the pace or the fences

why was he out with the washing in the supreme then?

not saying a gold cup winner has to win the supreme, but kicking king and war of attrition were both second in the race.

which suggests to me that they both had a much better cruising speed than this horse. maybe that won't matter, but maybe it will.

I prefer kemboy.

Bellshill (Wylie) despite winning the Navan and Lawlor Novice Hurdles (both 20f) was sacrificed in the Supreme (16f) so that Long Dog (Ricci) could run in the Albert Bartlett; Yorkhill (Wylie) despite winning the Tolwprth (16f) ran/won the Neptune but could not run in the Supreme (16f) because of Min (Ricci).

Post Supreme and at Aintree Bellshill ran in the Sefton over 24f; he never ran over 16f ever again.

harry callaghan kindly asked me for my thoughts on this race and, for what they're worth, here they are:

There has never been a Gold Cup with so little form to go on. The top 8 in the betting have run just 14 times over fences between them for an astonishing total of just six victories shared between four of them. (Excluding Presenting Percy's hurdles win).

The only races you could really claim to have been "proper" Gold Cup trials were the King George and the Savills Chase, though both of them threw up as many questions as they answered.

Given the profound lack of relevant form, the race becomes more a matter of conjecture than usual. With the betting headed by three second season chasers, the consensus is that the new crop is far superior to the old timers. That argument can't be supported by evidence that Presenting Percy has made the required improvement, but upon Clan Des Obeaux and Kemboy's wins.

The former looked superb in the KG, laughing at Thistlecrack coming to the last, with the others well beaten. But how seriously can we take that race? Two fancied runners departed early, while Might Bite didn't show up and Native River was off the bridle going to the first and was outpaced throughout. Thistlecrack hasn't won a race for 2 years and is now eleven. The style was impressive but the substance questionable and the same can be said of his subsequent win over Terrefort.

Kemboy bolted up on his seasonal return and then again in the Savills Chase. That race has been questioned, due to the slow pace and the excellent, opportunistic, ride given to the winner. I don't see it that way. Kemboy has now won four in a row, all very comfortably. Although there were excuses for some of those behind him at Leopardstown, the race contained most of the better chasers in Ireland and he simply demolished them. The time was identical to Bellshill's Irish Gold Cup win, despite the latter being on slightly faster ground. Kemboy sprinted away from the last, showing an excellent turn of foot to go with proven stamina (he won over 3m on heavy at the start of his winning streak). It would not bother me if Walsh elects to ride another Mullins horse, as he has only ever ridden Kemboy once and Townsend and David Mullins both know him well. My concern would be twofold; he can be keen, though that has never led to him finishing weakly to date, and his jumping can leave a bit to be desired. While athletic, he can get close to fences and that could be costly. His run in last year's JLT was compromised by a few poor jumps but I'm hoping more experience will have helped in that respect. I don't know why he's drifted from 8 to 11 since his last race but he is carrying my money.

Much has been said and written about Presenting Percy. All I can add is that this cannot have been the plan. Something must have happened to make him miss those races  -  I don't buy the ground argument - and I can't support him at current odds, although I'm a long way from dismissing his chances and was expecting all season for him to be my selection. But we just don't know if he's improved, he's had no relevant match practice and there must be a suspicion that all has not been well at some stage.

Native River is game and honest but has had a serious attack of the slows this season and seems to be losing what pace he had. Of course, if the race is run on similar going to last year, he has a chance - though none in my view if it isn't - but even then I feel sure that one of the new challengers will be too classy.

Bellshill ticks most of the boxes and must go close. But is he quite good enough? I have to say that just edging out Road to Respect, when the latter almost stopped at several fences in the back straight, doesn't strike me as being good enough to win a Gold Cup.

If Might Bite wins, I would be delighted - I really like him - but astonished. To come back from where he's been this season, on ground that will almost certainly be on the slow side, would be astonishing.

I can't have Thistlecrack, though he always seems to defy some sketchy jumping and plug on, and don't really fancy any of the outsiders, although Bristol de Mai has looked overpriced for a long time. I've never worked out the T-D operation and never will, but his best form is better than almost everything in the field.

Al Boum Photo - Remembered more for the bizarre performance at Punchestown than anything.
Anibale Fly - placed in the GN and Gold Cup , satisfactory run behind Monalee last time.
Balko Des Flos - Done nothing since Ryanair win .
Bellshill - Ran a mighty race giving 19 pounds to Irish Grand National winner until veering all over the place at the last.
Bristol De Mai - Two superstar performances at Haydock ,  no show in the Gold Cup last year.
Clan Des Obeaux - Massive improver and bridle traveller , needs to prove he is no One Man on the climb for home.
Definitly Red - Solid performer but only 6th last year and beating by Captain Redbeard last time.
Double Shuffle - King George runner up outsider  for this.
Elegant Escape - Welsh GN winner stayed in behind Frodon , needs the rain to bring him into it.
Frodon - Will he try in the softened ground , doubt it.
Invitation Only - Big weight win in Thystes at first trip over 3 miles.
Kemboy - 4 winners out of 4 since falling at the first in the Irish Grand National
Might Bite - Looked the 3 mile King in waiting but wheels fell off in last 2 runs .
Monalee - Runner up to PP in the RSA , good win over 20 furlong last time.
Native River - The forecast weather will help both Welsh Grand National winners from the same stable, goes off favourite on the day imo.
Presenting Percy - Trying to match Easter Hero , travels well ,but could not beat Our Duke in only test outside Novice chase.
Road To Respect - Never out of first four in chase career , 4th last year.
Shattered Love - Poor run last time and distance will test her.
Thistlecrack - Probably the most popular winner , if his jumping stands up .
Yala Enki ----mmmmmmm

I am on Kemboy , Bellshill , Clan Des Obeaux , Al Boum Photo , Anibale Fly , Thistlecrack and Bristol De Mai at prices between 27 & 60's ......so you can cross them off .

Sorry, Bellshill - the improver? How have you arrived at that conclusion? He just beat Djakadam (was regressing) last season when Walsh could have ridden a better judged race on the latter; finished behind Kemboy and RTR in the Savills when RTR had a rough passage; just beat RTR in the Irish Gold Cup when RTR had to make the running and repeatedly made mistakes in his jumping.

The form of RTR is not Gold Cup standard (176/178), and I think the form of Bellshill is still several rungs below Gold Cup standard too.

I backed Invitation Only at 40/1 a few weeks ago. I think he has a great chance

"Sorry, Bellshill - the improver? How have you arrived at that conclusion?"

Last year Mullins ran him in a grade 3 in February then a handicap. This year he won the Irish Gold Cup and is targeted for the Gold Cup. It's not rocket science.

Last year Mullins ran him in a grade 3 in February then a handicap. This year he won the Irish Gold Cup and is targeted for the Gold Cup. It's not rocket science.

Exactly.

big thing when looking at the Gold Cup.....for me anyway......being the best horse does not mean he/she will win,the winner will be the one that handles the conditions on the day,jumps travels and very important.....stays really well.As happened last year,
So for me Native River and Bellshill stick out.

It's not mentioned too much but when weighing up Percy I wouldn't bother wrestling too much with the ins and outs of his two previous festival strolls, I'd much more look at his hack canter demolition job in the handicap against seasoned chasers as a novice on his 3rd ever start, that's a really big clue to just how deadly this horse is IMO.

As for the prospect of this race turning into a "real" test with the prevailing conditions likely to suit NR, well, Percy will be lapping this up too IMO, but he'll move through the race looking anything like a horse running in a slog fest IMO, he's an out and out stayer too but doesn't move through his races like a stereotypical one, he's much classier.

Well PP may turn out to simply be the best horse on the day,if so not much anyone can do about that.
If he were a more realistic price i may take a chance he is,but i cannot do that at his cramped odds,i would much rather part with my cash on proven ones at the top level.
Last years winner and Bellshill fit my criteria very well.

Kemboy.

All of the Mullins horses like viable contenders imo.
If I had to pick one it would be Bellshill , looks very strong now and reminds me of horses like Burrough Hill Lad .

626

BHL won the Welsh National prior to the Gold Cup and then went on to carry 12st and give a serious beating to the Hennessey field with the RSA winner in 2nd getting 21lbs.

I don't think there's anything in this years line up that is likely to do that.

I understand you saying that Penzance,i just feel that the Gold Cup will suit a horse like Bellshill better than Kemboy,the extra distance and the toughness of the race and the feeling i have that Bellshill has strengthened and improved a lot since last season,and steadily improved this season,and looks to me like a horse trained specifically to peak this week.

Lewisham
That could well be a major criticism of willie mullins this year
He did it time after time at the galway festival last summer
He genuinely dod not know what was his best chance out of 2\3\4
Runners in a race.
.....and the times his fav got beat .....
You have been warned !

irishone yes that's the impression I get as well. it's also the same with Gordon eliot, a lot of the races at Cheltenham he has several runners and we have no idea which one is the best, I doubt he knows either.

TOTALLY DIFFERNT SCENARIO ON FRIDAY ...........