Cheltenham Festival
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15 Dec 18
22:55
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05 Oct 11
It is always a bit difficult to know which novices are going to stretch out in distance, particularly early in the season. Rockpoint won the trial today and is as low as 16/1. Although course form is not be scoffed at I think it is worth noting that Emitom had previously disposed of Lisnagar Oscar (backed from 12/1 to 7/2 on the day) without coming off the bridle. If he backs that performance up I suspect he won't be 33/1.
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would Emitom not be a horse for the Ballymore?
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Having run at 2m 4f fto and a NR today over the same trip there's no reason as to why it can't progress into a AB horse. Good shout Different Drum.
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I don't have any inside knowledge as to whether they think he is a Ballymore or Albert Bartlett horse. Personally, I think Albert Bartlett is the more likely target on what we have seen thus far.
His first run over hurdles was over the intermediate trip on Ffos Las ground. That looks pretty good form and he didn't appear to be showing signs of distress at the end of the race. The Ballymore has a history of attracting horses who eventually end up dropping back in trip. Emitom does travel well but would he cope with potentially speedier types on quicker ground? In terms of quality the Albert Bartlett is more often than not the easier task. All being well it seems likely he will get the double entry and it might well come down to ground conditions. Either way he looks better than a 33/1 shot. Thankfully, only a minor issue has kept him away from today's race. |
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Posted about Emitom a while back:
unclepuncle 25 Nov 18 19:36 Most exciting prospect I saw last week was Emitom, trained by Warren Greatrex, was hugely impressive on his hurdle debut at at Ffos Las on Friday, having won both his bumpers previously - looks a great prospect and would be half his current price of 33/1 for the Ballymore if he were at one if the big yards. I may be wrong but I seriously doubt there is anything actually wrong with the horse today - they just decided to wait for the Challow Hurdle next week instead as it will probably be less compettive than todays race and is worth a load more - they would get more for coming 2nd or 3rd in the Challow than than winning todays race. I'm on large at 36/1 for the Ballymore so hope DD is wrong regarding target. |
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You can see the update on Sporting Life.
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Had a quick look at the breeding - Gold Well's best progeny would be the likes of Holywell who won twice at Festival at 3m plus and Sausalito Sunrise who did n't really deliver on his promise but looked like he had a massive engine when he won the 3m 3f handicap at the November meeting a few years back. Also John's Spirit who won a Paddy Power/Betvictor to be fair.
But it's a Heron Island mare and his best progeny are the likes of Black Hercules, Rathvinden, Otago Trail, Galaxy Rock,Trustan Times and If In Doubt, all best at 3m plus - except probably Black Hercules who won a JLT. So breeding points me in the direction of Albert Bartlett but we all know what a tough race that is - plus he will only be 5yo next March - only one 5yo winner of Albert Bartlett in last 10 years (not sure how many have tried,mind) Just my two penn'orth - Mulcahy's Hill (not as good a prospect admittedly) followed a similar programme for Greatrex last year and ended up in the Albert Bartlett though probably because he already looked exposed at the Ballymore trip, Challow will tell us more, obvs... |
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^ if he runs in the Challow, the Sporting Life comments would n't fill you with confidence...
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Apparently all OK with Emitom now and is going to be enetered in the Tolworth over 2m at Sandown next weekend.
I fondly remember Yorkhill  hacking up in the Tolworth on very heavy ground and then going on to win the Ballymore. However I'd have thought he'd want it very soft to be fully effective dropping back down to 2m and the forecast is mainly dry for the next 7-10 days so they may swerve it. Either way I can't see him going for the Albert Bartlett myself. 33/1 still widely available for the Ballymore though.  |
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If you were going down the Tolworth/Ballymore route it seems bizarre starting off with a stamina test at Ffos Las. To me the planning looks all over the place and I don't see him winning either race. They can keep the 33/1.
Yes, on the back of that he isn't going Albert Bartlett. I think they are making a mistake but we will see. |
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Derrinross looks really progressive for the AB. Giving weight all round today and loved a fight when anything came close
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Derrinross is already a 7yo. Not many 8yo's win Grade 1 novice hurdles. I think Brown Lad started off very late in life but that was 40 years ago.
Derrinross has dictated to win two small field novice races on very testing ground. That's a million miles from what would be needed in an Albert Bartlett, particularly on the usual Cheltenham ground. I don't think there is a scrap of value in the general 20/1. |
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I can see were you are coming from with regards to age DD but I totally disagree with that Limerick race LTO as it always throws up a goodun and he done it well to give weight all around. 2015 winner Martello Tower 2016 Penhill 2017 Delta Work 2nd in that race seems to me that a decent one is targeted at it. Derrinross was 50s in PP just after the race and I had a slice but I wouldn't put anyone of the 20s and only time will tell!!
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I thought Jarveys Plate was pretty impressive in running away from the hotpot today. He will no doubt get a dual entry but again the 20/1 appeals far more for this race than the Ballymore. I know he got loads of Ballymore quotes but the key to that was in the race title. Without a doubt the further he went the better he went. The same connections stepped up Poetic Rhythm last year. That didn't work but this looks a better prospect.
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The pre-race interview with Fergal O'Brien was interesting - he seemed to suggest that Paddy Brennan would have preferred trying to exploit Jarveys Plate's handicap mark and it was the owner's choice to run today - so he might have surprised them a bit!
I note Emitom is n't entered in the Tolworth though he looked in rude enough health as he helped launch Sky Sports Racing this morning.Surely they'll either go for the Leamington at Warwick on Saturday week or the next Ballymore novices race on Cheltenham trials day (both Grade 2s over the intermediate trip I think). The age would n't put me off Derrinross - Unowhatimeanharry won the Albert Bartlett as an 8yo in 2016 and 5 of the other 13 most recent winners have been 7yo. In the latest renewal there were 2 x 7yo and 1 x 8yo and Kilbricken Storm (7yo) and OK Corral (8yo) finished first and second. Derrinross not in one of the high profile stables either so every chance he'll be underbet on the day I would have thought - though I've no bet yet and no strong opinion on the likely winner at this stage. |
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Good read Rease and all valid points still early days for a race like the AB. We always get a few handicappers progressing into potential winners also !!
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The one I like at the moment is Rhinestone, he travelled well in Easy Games race the other day up in trip but then got hampered and made a couple of mistakes at a crucial time where the race got away from him before he stayed on quite well again. I think stepping up in trip again will suit him, he's got a bit of class about him in my view.
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Looks like they are trying to get him a nice mark for the Martin Pipe to me Duffy.
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Yes, perhaps CCM good point, I don't mind winning money on him in that race instead, I'm not fussy.
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Just the 14 runnings previously,not a wealth of history to go on.
10/10 min 27 break 7/10 47 day break 9/10 4 runs or more current season 8/10 6/7 yr old 7/10 IRE Bred 1/10 FR Bred 2/10 winning fav Lowest OR last ten runnings 133 (berties dream) Highest OR 152 (Harry / At Fishers Cross) The last 5 winners returned.....33/1,16/1,11/1,14/1 and 33/1. Fair to say if you fancy one at a price,not a bad race to have a punt. Those winners suggest this is impossible,however there might be a few things we can use. Ran on the final day,the other two championship races for novices have been run.Though it may be time consuming during the Festival itself,there may be form lines from earlier in the week we can use. The stats suggest we are looking for a horse that comes here fresh,both the last 2 winners had 76 and 78 day breaks respectively,not having a recent run is not a huge negative. Experience also looks key,only Bobs Worth had less than 4 runs going back 10 yrs,some of the winner profiles suggest they have been built up early season,then left to tick over until the big day. History also tells us this is not for the FR breds,stamina is the key to this race,those IRE bred have a fine record,others with a better knowledge of breeding might have some thoughts nearer the time. Age wise,no surprise 6/7 yr olds hold sway,not a given,It looks a tough task for the 5 yr olds given the nature of the track and distance involved. These novice races can be real headaches to solve,rather than trying to find the winner this far out,I always think its worth trying to find the profile of the possible winner. Easier said than done,be looking out for initial entry stage,quite a few meet plenty of the above,hopefully we can narrow them down a little nearer the day. |
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Interesting novice race at Naas tomorrow. It looked an obvious blunder (before the race) running Commander Of Fleet over the minimum trip so no surprise he is now stepped up in trip. The surprise for those who see him as a Ballymore contender is that he is running over a stiff intermediate trip. Perhaps there wasn't an obvious alternative? He jumped left last time so this way should suit better. Ground should be fine and it will be disappointing if he doesn't get involved.
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Skybet offered me £3 and £4 for Emitom for this race and Ballymore, complete joke outfit
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Good to see Sam's Profile run a good race and further boost the form of Derrinross. That 50/1 is looking pretty at the minute
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Deptford I'm the same ffs. Wanted to have a bet on le Richebourg for the Arkle they would let me have £14ew @ 7s. Went in an hr later and it's now 6s, I wonder how much changed the price probably 4 quid
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Quevega if you are winning money and can get £14ew then you are doing pretty well. I have given up trying as I was effectively just marking their card for no reward whatsoever.
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You are right they're a waste of time
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I've tried to get a few others on for Cheltenham and anything bigger than 20s you'd be lucky to get a fiver on
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And all the publicity they get, and the adverts, koonts
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Despite it's only 9 weeks to the Festival I have not got a dicky-bird about this race. I do not even know who the main protagonists are let alone trying to pick the winner.
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You may get moving Impossible,don't want to be left behind
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Backed Rockpoint for this, he's been pushed out to 33s which i think is an overreaction as today's race was over shorter and he was conceding weight - just looked like he was outpaced and then stayed on for 4th. A return to Cheltenham over further and on a track which suits him will see him in a better light.
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Backed him as well,following a very similar pattern to last years winner.
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If I had to take one from yesterday it would be Stoney Mountain. I thought he was the one who ran well despite the speed test.
It looks as if Emitom goes to Lingfield on Tuesday over two miles so at this stage this race looks a pretty forlorn target. Something needs to go wrong which isn't beyond the realms of possibility. The ground at Lingfield is good to soft so it will be interesting if that takes him out of the comfort zone over the shorter trip. Thinking through the winners I have backed in this race - Brindisi Breeze, At Fisher's Cross, Bobs Worth and Martello Tower - they were all horses who stayed well and had a touch of class, none of them were what I would describe as hardened battlers which seems to the tag that is now attached to this race. It would be shame if trainers automatically diverted horses to less suitable targets off the back of few recent renewals. Those suggesting a certain horse for this race would they equally suggest you need a Champion Hurdle type for Ballymore because several have eventually gone that route? |
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Emitom (eventually) bolted up today but it was a shocking race. On that evidence I suspect his jumping might well be found out on good to soft or quicker even if he stepped up for the Ballymore. If he went for the Sidney Banks that will give more of a clue.
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Thinking through the winners I have backed in this race - Brindisi Breeze, At Fisher's Cross, Bobs Worth and Martello Tower - they were all horses who stayed well and had a touch of class, none of them were what I would describe as hardened battlers which seems to the tag that is now attached to this race. It would be shame if trainers automatically diverted horses to less suitable targets off the back of few recent renewals. Those suggesting a certain horse for this race would they equally suggest you need a Champion Hurdle type for Ballymore because several have eventually gone that route? I suppose another way of looking at it is the type of horse suited to running in these conditions as a novice will, by definition attract a certain type of animal. It's rare you're going to see a trainer running in this if it's future wasn't going to be seen to be at 3m (and upwards). You look at Altiors Supreme Novice field that year and the depth of subsequent winners in open company from it is very impressive. I'm not sure you get that kind of depth in an Albert Bartlett, you may get a good winner and some will go onto better things undoubtedly, but in my mind, not many. It could be that 3m as a novice at that intensity and on that course blows the minds of many a horse and they never come back. The bumper's another festival race that could also have that levied at it. I'd rather they did away with the Albert Bartlett to be honest, and replaced it with a 2m 4f open hurdle race or a veterans chase. |
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I have nothing against the Albert Bartlett but I do wonder why if you have a horse that stays you might prefer to finish fifth or sixth in a Ballymore instead. In terms of quality nine times out of ten the longer race will provide the more winnable option.
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Its a pity they dont put in a
ANY OTHER Option in this market Theres at least two i know Going for it and not quoted |
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Just get them added to the market then.
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Another huge boost to Emitoms form today. Such a shame he was due to reappear on the very day the BHA cancelled the racing for the flu.
 Don't think the BHA are rearranging that race (Sidney Banks) and haven't read anything from Greatrex about what the new plan is? |
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Yep ^ I have indulged on this horse for this race and Ballymore, nrnb
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