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Replies: 85
By:
lockup
When: 26 Jan 19 20:31
probably a national winner in waiting just think unless ground comes up very soft he will be found wanting for toe dont think the downhill run to 3 out plays to his strengths.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 26 Jan 19 20:52
he was rated 159 before today and he has run a 169 rated horse to 3/4 of a length rec 2 pound, think he would have won in another furlong . probably improved a few pound on the welsh national win . frodon will probably go up a few pounds so not a bad run at all by elegant escape imo .all to play for and one of several who have a chance . if he is there at the last then the hill will hold no fears .
By:
buddeliea
When: 27 Jan 19 08:01
I feared he might just be a bit too far behind the likes of Native River when they meet the hill,and I still think that after today.
But he certainly finishes his races well,and at near 40/1 I am quiet happy and think I will get a run for my money.
At a guess I would say he could well run into 3rd or 4th.
He does seem to be improving though,so you never know!!
By:
buddeliea
When: 27 Jan 19 09:55
Foyles
Best price 25 now....at least we are beating the book mate
By:
cyclops
When: 27 Jan 19 10:34
Slow horses seldom win Gold Cups and they only do so if conditions are very testing. Synchronised and Native River being two cases in point. I don't know of other winners in recent memory who do not have a tremendous cruising speed and are well able to sit with the pace.

I would give NR and EE no chance unless really soft going prevails (and little if it does - Presenting Percy is far classier and has handled bad conditions happily in the past).
By:
irishone
When: 27 Jan 19 10:54
From memory i cant think of a horse
That has won a race over the chase fences
At cheltenham festival
Having made two mistakes ib a race
As i stated at the start of this thread
EE is prone to mistakes
And it cost him the race yesterday
By:
buddeliea
When: 27 Jan 19 10:59
NR got some good form on going better than soft
By:
irishone
When: 27 Jan 19 11:06
Two ends of the continuum there. Percy skips across the ground horizontak gait winning in heavy tells you how classy he is. Same with n r vertical gait, pounds the ground , great horse winning on good but more prone to injury .... Only my.opinion
By:
Somerset Sam
When: 27 Jan 19 20:23
Elegant Escape surely isn't fluent enough over his fences to win a Gold Cup?
By:
cyclops
When: 28 Jan 19 09:21
Good form, budd, but not Gold Cup winning form. Being unable to go the pace in the KG going to the first fence said it all for me.
By:
Hanx
When: 28 Jan 19 10:00
The only horse that was ever going to be competitive in the Gold Cup, over 3m 2.5f, in Saturday's race.

You've got a decent price, beatent he market and will be the only race he'll run in if he goes to Cheltenham. Cn see him running on past beaten horses up the hill and who knows where he'll finish in that sort of scenario?

Good luck anyway.
By:
buddeliea
When: 28 Jan 19 12:33
Cyclops

On good ground he finished about 2l behind Sizing John in the Gold Cup,that COULD be good enough to win this year if reproducing that.
He ran in the 4 miler at Cheltenham finishing just behind M Rocco on good/soft,that may not be GC winning form, but it proves he can run well on ground better than soft.
At Haydock this season it was Good Ground and he finished 4l behind the Haydock specialist,at a distance too short and a track that don't suit.
I aint saying as a backer I would not love it soft, as he handles it better than some of the other contenders,but I think the formbook says he can run big races on decent ground.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 28 Jan 19 13:27
sam ...........nor was synchronised !
By:
cyclops
When: 30 Jan 19 09:27
Can't argue with that budd, but my strong feeling is that he's getting slower at the age of nine. In both runs this season he has really struggled to go the pace, embarrassingly so in the KG for a Gold Cup winner.

I fully agree that he's run well on good going; our only point of dispute is that I don't believe at the age of nine, that he can operate well enough on that surface to hold his place in a true run Gold Cup.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 30 Jan 19 11:27
cyclops i know you put a lot of effort into the gold cup and i like one quite strongly at a price but wanted to pick your brain as it isn't a race i normally get involved however i am this year ante post, i just wanted your views to put the final jigsaw pieces in my bet together

who are the horses that interest you and any thoughts on the race if you can find any time...

i have the same thoughts in regards what you think above in regards the 2 horses mentioned on the ground but what are you're feelings on some of the others as we stand?
By:
buddeliea
When: 30 Jan 19 12:32
Well yes, if you go on the King George its hard to fancy NR.
But knowing as we do his liking for Cheltenham,plus races that let his stamina play a big part,I still think hes a major player,whatever the ground.
I don't think the age of nine will be any problem either.
I think we will know pretty early which of us is nearer the mark,cos either NR gets to the front and dictates the pace to suit him as last year,or he struggles to do that,in which case he wont be winning.
Intriguing stuff Cyclops.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 30 Jan 19 12:47
do you think he is going to get it easy on the lead this year budd on better ground?

doubt that with frodon, might bite and potentially kemboy all likely prominent racers
By:
buddeliea
When: 30 Jan 19 12:55
Not sure mate,but he is the one out of all of those that is guaranteed to get home.
I don't think MB will be in front of NR.
If either of the others are they could ruin their chances of staying well enough?.
Would not surprise me at all if Frodon and Kemboy are settled in just off the pace.
If they do go off then I can see the case for NR struggling, but they may kill their chances as well as his??
By:
harry callaghan
When: 30 Jan 19 13:06
not sure they will ruin there chances tbh as native river will be shovelling on the coals himself to keep up, all the horses mentioned will make life very tough for him this year, of course he may get another soft ground cheltenham and in which case he will get loose on the lead imo
By:
buddeliea
When: 30 Jan 19 13:16
Well I don't think the pace will be quick enough to get NR under the cosh personally.
This is the Gold Cup, and horses will not want to lose their race early on.
I think he will lead again whatever the ground,but I agree with you this will be tougher this year.
By:
buddeliea
When: 30 Jan 19 13:32
Interesting reading the comments on his run behind Sizing John which was good ground.
He was up with the pace pretty much all the way,but was headed for a fair part of the race.
As long as hes in a good jumping rhythm he may not have to dictate as he did last year.

All in all....do I think hes more chance on softer ground....yes
do I think he can still win on good or good/soft....yes.
By:
cyclops
When: 31 Jan 19 09:25
harry, kind of you to value my thoughts.
I'll certainly share them, for what they're worth, but perhaps wait until after Leopardstown this Sunday. The last full-blooded trial, if past years are a guide.
By:
irishone
When: 31 Jan 19 09:41
Have plenty of respect for this horse but cant understand anyone backing him for the gold cup
firstly he needs it soft minimum , OK so claisse plays to the media but its unlikely going
secondly he is not fluent at his fences
tizzard has had plenty of time to sort it out and hasn't done so
thirdly the stress of watching him try to negotiate 20 odd Cheltenham fences at pace
would have your hands over your eyes by about halfway
he is a great horse don't get me wrong , he will run through a brick wall for you
but hes no denman and seriously think frodon would be a much better bet
the jump at the last was unreal on saturday
By:
sageform
When: 31 Jan 19 11:30
I'm still not convinced that any of the second season horses with the possible exception of PP are as good as NR and MB were last year or Thistlecrack was the year before. If those 3 reproduce their best form they look the best around although they all have questions to answer.
By:
buddeliea
When: 31 Jan 19 12:10
Ive backed him for the Gold Cup, mainly because I thought his price may be value if the ground comes up in his favour.
When a horse is around 40's their are always going to be question marks.
He was 25's when I last looked.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 31 Jan 19 13:26
don't cop out on me now cyclopsGrin that's the fun of trying to beat the book

no worries if you need to digest the weekend action cyclopsHappy, will be pleased to read your thoughts, i've decided to pull the trigger on my fancy but was still interested in you're early thoughts before the races are run as to whether i have a couple more pounds on

quite funny i've never had a decent bet in this race before, prefer to concentrate on the races punters aren't interested inDevil the amateur races
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 31 Jan 19 17:25
think soft will be fine for elegant escape not sure why some think he needs it on the heavy side of good ,tizz said after he won the welsh nat "it was soft but but there was good in it ,it was very similar ground to when native river won his welsh nat . a lot saying he is a slow boat and visually he did look short of pace in the cotswold but i suspect that race was slowly run (still havent seen the time of race ) with frodon setting  the fractions at a pace to see if he got the trip , he didnt look slow when the pace quickened  and his stamina kicked in on the turn for home and was the one finishing with a lot of purpose up the hill ,in another furlong do many think he wouldnt have passed frodon ? he made 1 or 2 niggly mistakes on saturday but i put that down to the slow pace ,in the very fast  fast run welsh nat he  jumped much more fluently and was strong at the finish. look i am nt saying he is going to pish up on the bridle he is double figga odds but if he is in contention at the last he is one who will get up that hill .
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 31 Jan 19 17:26
heavy side of soft ^^^^^
By:
Somerset Sam
When: 31 Jan 19 19:28

Jan 28, 2019 -- 1:27PM, FOYLESWAR wrote:


sam ...........nor was synchronised !


And I don't think either are / were, naturally quick enough to win a typical GC either. My main concern for him though would be his jumping. Roll on the Friday until we see what actually happens!

Sorry I missed your reply.

By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 31 Jan 19 20:37
no probs sam ,watched synchronised again and how the fook he won that with that round of jumping ,cant really call it jumping more clambering over the fences , didnt seem to take any fences smoothly and still won it" unbelivable jeff "
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 31 Jan 19 20:51
just had a look at the time of the cotswold...... 20.5 seconds slow
By:
Somerset Sam
When: 31 Jan 19 22:42
Looks like I've persuaded you that EE won't win....Laugh
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 31 Jan 19 23:02
the time was as i thought very slow. elegant escape is an out and out stayer and the dawdle round in the cotswold would not play to his strenths ,contrast that to the welsh nat when the went a very fast pace on ground just on the soft side,jumped and travelled better off the fast pace in a time 3 secs faster than native clocked 2 season previous . the gold cup test  should be right up his street .
By:
The Dragon
When: 01 Feb 19 15:14
ee is fav with some bookies for the natioanl. Says it all in terms of GC i reckon
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 21 Feb 19 14:38
billy no mates on here Cry
By:
buddeliea
When: 15 Mar 19 06:12
Well Foyles, that run behind Frodon looks pretty good now!
Any more rain will help,but hes a chance.
By:
buddeliea
When: 15 Mar 19 06:12
Well Foyles, that run behind Frodon looks pretty good now!
Any more rain will help,but hes a chance.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 15 Mar 19 08:04
yeah budd the acid test today , a lot saying he will be outpaced and have to run through beaten horses  they may be right ,my take on it is if it is a strong pace (i dont think they will hang about ) it should be a true test and the faster they go the better elegant escape   will travel if he is there 2 out then the hill will hold no fears .
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 15 Mar 19 08:07
i reckon frodon ran to around 171-173 yesterday . puts ee right  in the mix going into todays race .
By:
buddeliea
When: 15 Mar 19 08:20
Form of trainer a concern,but the bets are on now and at least we beat the prices by a fair margin!!
Good luck mate
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