Cheltenham Festival
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National Hunt Chase (4 Miler) 2019
National Hunt Chase (4 Miler) 2019
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Replies: 93
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I thought he ran well but I think he is a stayer. He travelled into today's as well as anything. Just lacks a gear. He jumps well, travels well and he wouldn't need such a change of pace over four miles.
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IMO it'll be Delta Work JLT Hardline RSA and Mortal 4 miler
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I think Champagne Classic will run in the 4 miler.
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I hope so ^
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Classic would have 2 go 4 miler you'd reckon. Surely not go for the RSA after one run
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Why?
I don't see why having had one run should sway him in favour of any race. To me he travelled like the best horse. Did he blow up or was he eventually beaten a stronger stayer? Bounce factor also a concern wherever he goes. |
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The RSA would tend to be stronger so a more battle hardened horse normally wins it. I get the race Ballyward won last time out Classic travelled well but Irish races are normally slower
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They'll be taking a chance running an inexperienced horse over 3 when also having the fav
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Champagne ran well, got to be this race, cant see it in RSA
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I think Champagne Classic regressed a little. He didn't seem to travel or jump as well as he did last time. I would be less confident whatever race he runs in.
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would like to see Mr Malarkey entered in this not RSA from the family of Dubacilla must be right up his alley.
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Didn't think Kennedy was very good on this one at all.
Poor in fact. No initiative shown at all,outridden completely by Rachael. |
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Personally that run from Champagne today will have him bang on for the 4 miler
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Have no opinion on this race yet, but the drum's been banging for Ok Corral.He's only 10/3 in a competitive looking race - justified?
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He is clearly in the wrong race. He should be Delta Work's main danger. Other people have argued that Santini is the slowcoach in the yard and I wouldn't disagree at all. I won't be shedding a tear if both are turned over.
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You can bet your life NJH wants both of them to run in the RSA. The only reason OK Corral might go to the NH Chase is because JP wants him to run there. It's a race that he loves to target with his horses and he's been very successful in it. Not to mention the JT connection to the race. If he had another decent runner in the NH Chase he'd probably send him to the RSA. As it stands right now he doesn't so i understand why he might go for the easier option.
The NH Chase is looking like a really decent renewal. Ballyward form franked over the weekend too. |
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Good write up on S Life from Gordon Elliot, looks like Champagne running
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Sounds like the owners want Champagne Classic in the RSA from the preview evening last night. Elliott wants to run in 4 miler but sounds like the O’Leary’s might have got their way. Hopefully Gordon can change their minds
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Delta be short now with Santini injury, be mad run Champagne as well
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Champagne Classic not declared here so presume he’s gonna run in the RSA.
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Out of the festival
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Must be injured, still entered in 2 races at moment, gutted, really fancied this, and Tout in Ultima and Gilgamboa in Foxy, all out
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I backed the horse after his good comeback at naas deptford and was fine with his run at navan others were a little disappointed,I thought this race was made for him,obviously a fragile horse which is a shame his hurdles win at punchestown is exceptional form,hopefully he will be ok and maybe go for the Irish national, I really thought he only had ballyward to beat.
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Agree with all there mate, hopefully Ballyward to ease the pain
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Yes hopefully but not much of a price now and will probably go of favourite ,champagne 20/1 after naas
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Anyone else think that Discorama has a chance in this? Would have won last time in my opinion but for being bumped and falling at the last when just half a length down at the time. The second in that race, Chris's Dream went on to beat Champagne Classic in a Grade 2. Looks a big price at 14/1.
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He ran well at the festival last year tiger 2nd in the Martin pipe beaten by slow by slow he was running really well at naas doubt he would have beaten ballyward but definitely a clear second 14/1 is a big price though there’s not many runners.
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Elliott has only got 2 left in this.
Blow By Blow has been disappointing this year and it would take quite a leap of faith to side with him, although Festival form counts for something I guess. Elliott's other entry Gun Digger is interesting if he turns up in this though, having been campaigned at 2.5 miles all season yet looking as though he's crying-out for a trip. 0.3pt Gun Digger @ 16/1 |
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I doubt the trip will be far enough for blow by blow
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Think i have doneva fiver somewhere
At ridiculous odds last year To win the 4 miler with blow by blow It would help if he could jump fences |
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OK CORRAL and the ‘at least 3 starts over fences’ National Hunt Chase stat…
If Ok Corral is to justify his status as favourite in the National Hunt Chase then he’ll need to be only the second winner in the last 22 renewals to do it off less than three career chase starts… Nicky Henderson’s 9yo has been all the rage for the 4-miler since his smooth success in a Listed event at Warwick in January, a race that was his second start over the larger obstacles. And that’s my sticking point with the 9yo; the fact he’s only had two starts over fences. Is that enough chasing experience to land a race as demanding as the 4-miler? Especially when you consider the following… 20/21 winners of the NH Chase had 3 or more chase starts on their CV before landing festival glory Those that lined up with 2 or less chase starts to their name return the following… 1/78 | 1% S/R | -£70.50 LSP – W&P 8/78 | 10% S/R – 80% below expectation The only horse to defy the stat was Deejaydee in 1999. It’s always a race with plenty of large field hustle and bustle and coming in ‘low’ on chase experience hasn’t been a good idea in recent seasons. The defence… He’s two from two over fences, he’s won five of his nine career starts, he finished second in the Albert Bartlett last year and he’s only been out of the first two in one of his nine career starts; on the face of things it’s not hard at all to make a case for him. Conclusion… He’s always been a horse that looked like chasing was going to be his game and you suspect that had it not been for injuries and a slightly fragile body he could well have been contesting the Gold Cup this year, had he not spent long periods on the sidelines. Whilst that makes him unexposed and potentially fresher than plenty of his likely competition I do just worry if his lack of chasing experience, and we have to remember both his chase starts have been in 4 runner fields, will find him out… |
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To me, it is a terrible shame but the race will be abolished.
Until Golden MIller the NH Chase was the race of the festival. 1860 first run, Only The Grand National was bigger. The History of the National Hunt Chase 1860-2010 author Peter Stevens is a fantastic read, each race fully documented. Apart from which: when, why & how NH Racing began, there are some amazing stories. Let’s have evolution not revolution. |
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I've been saying for a while, shorten it to 3m 4f and make it open to all jockeys. I know that a lot of the carnage has happened earlier in the race but so many horses are on their last legs turning for home, shortening the race would help
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Wouldnt like to see the race removed
The codd and dereck are the finest jockeys Neither wants to go pro Its like their annual cup final |
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the bloob
Fair point, but 30 years ago They shortened the RSA to 3m when previously it was Gold Cup course & distance. It’s a right conundrum! Being a progressive traditionalist..... |
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irishone
I agree, but not for indulgent reasons. |
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agreee with blob 3m 4f would be prefect
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agreee with blob 3m 4f would be prefect
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They have to and will take notice of what happened this year.
I would be amazed if this race is in the 2020 festival as it stands now. Their will be pressure on stopping the combination of novice chasers going 4m with amateur jockeys. Quiet how they go about it i really dont know but ideas of reducing the race distance and open to all jockeys, will almost certainly be looked at. Its the world we live in now. |