Cheltenham Festival
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Was glued to Cheltenham all day yesterday on the look out for an eye-catcher for March. Not a lot to be honest but did take note of a Tizzard 6 year old Novice Chaser, WHITE MOON, who ran in the 2m4f. Jumped really well but didnt look anywhere near quick enough for first 2m3f of the race and then after second last he looked to be coming to win the race and fell at the last when blocked off. Looks all about stamina and after when Tizzard interviewed he said he thought he struggled to keep up with the pace but looked strong at the end. Could be a real option for either RSA or 4 Miler. This year Tizzard had Elegant Escape (3rd in RSA) and Sizing Tennessee (3rd in 4 Miler) so he is keen to have a real go at both races. I am going to have a go on WHITE MOON in 4 Miler. Thoughts ?
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Was struggling to keep up so defo wants a step up in trip i agree there, biggest issue is Tizzards tinkering always putting horses in what many would say is not the obvious choice. Then again who am i to judge a gold cup winning trainer lol
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Must admit I went big last year on Elegant Escape in the 4 Miler. Was gutted when he ran him in RSA. Still think it was wrong decision. But like you say who are we to question Mr T.
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Ibis de Rheu could be a candidate. Stayed on well and jumped economically today. If P Nicholls has a better one for the RSA he might run in the 4 mile.
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Agree with that sage. He ran after my original post and I was thinking exactly the same after watching his race. I liked the 2nd too. I always like trying to get good bets going in both the Arkle and the 4 Miler. Sets me up for rest of week if things go my way. 50/50 over the years !
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Ibis De Rheu was a pleasure 2 watch 2day completely different horse and one to watch over extreme distances
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I was also on Elegant Escape for the 4miler, a superb jumper. Think White Moon is a bit too classy to aimed at the 4 miler.
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Gamble on OK Corral. No doubt inspired by the booking of Derek O'Connor for tomorrow's race.
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No doubt. Crazy price now mind you.
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I like OK Corral for the 4 miler but Warwick would be a question mark against him, he was a green gangly horse over hurdles and looked much the same first time up over fences, I can see him being caught out by the sharp nature of the track tomorrow as well as the step up in class. If he can overcome this tomoz he'll be a reasonably strong fav for the festival 4 miler I'd have thought.
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I wont mind if he gets a bit outpaced and stays on for a place in the context of the 4 miler duffy. Doesnt need to win tomorrow to justify his price!
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Hugely impressive from OK Coral, track no hindrance at all, I'd be considering the RSA if he were mine, certainly good enough and I'd have a worry that he'll pull himself out of the race over 4 miles, they couldn't go quick enough for him there today, going a little slower again he could pull his race away.
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I have backed Delta Work for the RSA and happy to stick with him but it would be a nonsense if OK Corral didn't target the RSA. On that evidence he is a quicker horse and better jumper than Santini. If they really want a horse for the four miler then it is Santini who should be moving in that direction.
If I was pricing the RSA I would have Delta Work slight favourite over OK Corral and Santini at least double the price of those two. At the time Santini's Newbury win didn't look that great given Kilbricken Storm ran a shocker and it looks even worse now. |
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Be surprised if NJH will want to run him against Santini... and Degsy got a great tune out of him today so why not stick with him? That was the. Plan before today and no reason to change it imo.
Also, the 4 Miler is a race JP loves to win considering who it is named after. |
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Wouldn't you be concerned about his keenness over the extra mile CCM, I would be.
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Not really Duffy. That’s the first time I’ve seen him do it and they were going an absolute crawl early on today.
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Have you punted the horse?
I would like to think that if I had I would accept that the horse is clearly too good for the four miler. That is obvious from today. It shouldn't matter what the plan was beforehand. Why should JP move his horse in favour of a horse who doesn't look as good. That said however logical that thought might be I don't expect it to happen and those who have backed him are probably safe. |
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When asked about the RSA Hendo visibly squirmed I thought.
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Dd. You are saying it will be a nonsense if the horse targets the Four Miler, but that you think he will?
I don’t think today proves he’s clearly too good. It was hardly a top class race. And you’d guess they know where they stand with him and Santini. Everything we know suggests they think Santini is the superior animal. As I’ve said JP is desperate to win this race. I think he’d acatually rather win it than the RSA. So what’s the problem? He pays the bills. Minella Rocco was probably too good for this race and Cause of Causes and Edwulf, but all of them went for it and the first two won it. Yes Ive backed him. |
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A lot will also depend on whether JP’s money is down... it could well be.
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Whilst i agree he's plenty good enough to go to the RSA judged on today's effort. What is all this nonsense about being too good for a 4Miler ? Last few years it's really proved to be a race not to just send old fashion stayers but some really top horses.
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Can't see OK Corral going for any other race than the 4 miler especially after it's now called after the great JT
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It should be around 2/1 chance atm,so the 4s abput could still be value
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Looking at it again I think there may be something in taking the bigger prices about OK Corral for the RSA, you can't get away from the fact that he pulled very hard at Warwick, on a stiffer track over an extra mile going slower would be a massive worry. I think it is quite noteworthy that he's having another run before the festival, I reckon that is because they are concerned and want to see if they can get him to relax more through the race. Yes JP wants to run him in the 4 miler, but they won't run him there if they come to the decision that he won't get home and it has to be on their mind.
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Both Ballyward and Champagne Classic running excellent trials today, just took the 25's on CC who'll looks very likely to run in this race with DW going for the RSA. CC traveled and jumped beautifully before getting an easy time when he tired after so long off...25/1 can't last long IMO.
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Cheers Duffy just had a cheeky litte score at 28/1 with Lads boost
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If I was Gigginstown I would send Mortal here - dam showed good form at 3m6f - but O'Brien seems to think he is a JLT horse.
I think they have so many horses they are often guilty of just trying to fit them in rather than looking at best option for the actual horse. |
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dd
I loved Mortal last time against DW, he travelled really well and jumped likewise, he wasn't a stellar hurdler so has come to chasing under the radar but he looks to be one of these horses that is completely transformed for fences, he looked like he was loving jumping them, he traveled so well that the jock was taking pulls on him I thought. I disagree about the 4 miler though, I thought he was outstayed last time and looked like a horse with speed to me, I'm not sure what to expect from him next week as he's 148 at the moment which I think they may like the look of with regards to running in the Brown Advisory, I've been backing him for both the handicap and the JLT, I reckon in the fullness of time he'll prove to be a better horse than DW. |
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As I said it seems O'Brien is agreeing with you. Next week should provide a bit more evidence.
Last time Mortal did travel into the race but for me the mistake at the last made it difficult to be certain about trip. He is definitely bred to improve over further. On the day I don't think Delta Work was at his best. |
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Just going back to Delta Work he had previously beaten Le Richebourg (who I think is the most likely Arkle winner) over a shorter trip. He isn't slow. So at the end did he outstay or outspeed Mortal?
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Champagne Classic is in the JLT and RSA as well as the 4-miler, and is entered in both a hurdle and a chase at Leopardstown next Sunday, so it looks as if connections are feeling their way after a two year layoff.
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There can’t be many around who have beaten penhill presenting Percy monalee al boum photo
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Yes CC's win at the punchestown festival wasn't too shabby was it, he'd be bringing a deal of class into this race, and I'm still thinking that connections are concerned about him getting home by pulling his race away, I've took a chance and backed that one for the RSA, the 4 miler has gotten a lot stronger since the week end.
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Connections of OK Corral concerned about him pulling that should be.
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Champagne Classic travelled much better than Ballyward. I would go RSA as back up to Delta Work or even JLT ahead of this race.
I think even those who have backed him for this know that OK Corral should be in the RSA. |
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He's running in the Reynoladstown now isn't he?, I don't believe that was the original plan, I'm guessing they want to have another look at him with regards settling. I don't see how over another mile going slower on a stiffer track isn't going to do anything but cost him and the race is now looking stronger.
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If OK Corral goes Reynoldstown where is Santini going?
I would view OK Corral as the main danger to Delta Work. If he were to win the Reynoldstown it would be very hard to avoid the RSA. |
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Apologies, I was guessing Reynoldstown as Henderson said he'd have another run before the festival.
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National Hunt Chase got to be more likely for Mortal after that run. Definite trainer error running at 2m5f. Travelled and jumped well but absolutely no change of gear.
They have Delta Work for the RSA so given his pedigree it really should be this race for Mortal. |
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Disappointing, I don't know what to make of him for any race after that, the one thing I'm clinging on to is it appears to me that this festival isn't going to hold up generally speaking when it comes to the festival, but it was a shocker from Mortal for sure, lifeless at the business end.
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