Your value Antepost Cheltenham bets before the season starts

Hibore,

Champion Hurdle SUMMERVILLE BOY 14/1
I have been backing this horse from 25s down to 14s since the end of the last Festival, and I still think he is value in what continues to look a weak division.
I'm happy if Samcro drops in here, as some will be attracted into opposition, and I think that Summerville Boy will have the toe to beat them all. over 2M.

Ballymore Properties Hurdle COMMANDER OF FLEET 16/1
I've been backing this fellow regularly too, since his Punchestown Festival Bumper romp.
Have him at 20s down to 16s, the latter price is still freely available, and still looks value to me.
Gordon Elliott can do no wrong at the Festival, and he could have a follow up Champion novice hurdler, to Samcro.


Gold Cup BELLS HILL 25/1 & 20/1
Usually the race is taken by a first timer in it, and Bellshill has consistent form from bumpers, through hurdles, and into the chasing sphere.
He is 25/1 in one pace and 20/1 generally, and I think that's fair compared to those shorter in the market, he has the profile to become a live contender for Willie a millions first Gold Cup.

Typo predictive text, Willie Mulins, not Willie Millions.

Two once raced bumper horses I am looking forward to seeing are Sebastopol and Gallahers Cross.

I’m a bit surprised Sebastopol hasn’t moved to a bigger owner / yard after winning the bumper impressively on Scottish National day.

ELLIOTT confirmed Cheltenham and Punchestown hero The Storyteller is an intended runner at the Down Royal meeting on November 2 and 3..... ROLL ON THE RYANAIR 25/1

Vinndication (JLT) - 33/1

Sam Spinner (RSA) - 16/1

Why do I do this kind of thing?

Ego and interest probably

My Ante Post before the season proper.

Paloma Blue 28/1 Arkle and 20/1 any race.

Mengli Khan 22/1 Arkle

Laurina 14/1 Churdle

Cracking Smart 17.5/1 Any race

Sam Spinner 37/1 Stayers Hurdle

Vision Des Flo 22/1 any race

Draconian 22/1 any race.

Delta Work 17.5/1 any race

Great Field 25/1 Champion Chase

Bedrock 120/1 Churdle & 35/1 any race.

Kemboy 100, Politologue, Cyrname & Bachasson all 300. These 4 for the Gold Cup on Betfair.

Pick the bones out of those.

£20 Presenting Percy 2019 Gold cup. 40/1.
Paddy Power.

Wow, when did you get 40/1...a year ago ?

My Bets
Single
15th Mar CM - #WhatOddsPaddy #WhatOddsPaddy - #WhatOddsPaddy - Presenting Percy Special
10. Presenting Percy To Win The 2019 Cheltenham Gold Cup
40/1
Stake:
£20.00
Potential Returns:
£820.00

I wasn’t querying the bet. Just wondered when you placed it.

No bets yet but I will be sticking to my usual policy of laying any horse at 2/1 or lower until Xmas. At least 25% of them won't run and another 50% will get beaten.

had a dabble on apples jade at 14/1 for stayers

The stayers looks very open at the moment. Sam Spinner would hardly have been quoted at this stage last season ( rated 146 after a second place at Chepstow) but started 9/4 fav. so plenty of time for a new candidate to emerge. If Samcro was beaten for speed in a CH trial and then won a good race over 2.5 or 3 miles he might still start favourite. Wholestone and Old Guard look the pick of the entries for Wetherby on Saturday.

At current prices
MISTER BLUE SKY 40/1 Supreme Novice Hurdle
LAURINA 8/1 Champion Hurdle
SUMMERVILLE BOY 14/1 Champion Hurdle
MT LEINSTER 20/1 Champion Bumper

COMMANDER OF FLEET 12/1 WIN ANY RACE
LE PREZIEN 20/1 WIN ANY RACE (poss. Grand Annual or a handicap hurdle given his seasonal debut form)
MT LEINSTER 25/1 WIN ANY RACE (this should go fast given he is 20s for the Bumper)

shockster 23 Oct 18 10:19 Joined: 26 Oct 05 | Topic/replies: 2,580 | Blogger: shockster's blog
My Ante Post before the season proper.

Paloma Blue 28/1 Arkle and 20/1 any race.

Mengli Khan 22/1 Arkle

Laurina 14/1 Churdle

Cracking Smart 17.5/1 Any race

Sam Spinner 37/1 Stayers Hurdle

Vision Des Flo 22/1 any race

Draconian 22/1 any race.

Delta Work 17.5/1 any race

Great Field 25/1 Champion Chase

Bedrock 120/1 Churdle & 35/1 any race.

Kemboy 100, Politologue, Cyrname & Bachasson all 300. These 4 for the Gold Cup on Betfair.








Bedrock wins, I'm feeling smug and they announce he's been sold to race in America.  FFS  Couldn't make it up.

Some interesting long shots but I would not have Sam Spinner on my mind. His reputation seemed to be based on one race at Ascot when he beat what were thought to be other contenders, none of which have advertised the form.

That's fair enough Sage, all about opinions.  I just think Sam Spinners price is all wrong.  Not saying he's going to win it but IMO he should be no higher than 12/14's and on that basis he's a bet.  Connections have stated that this is the target again and also accept they didn't make enough use of him last year. He was still only beat 6L into 5th.  Anyway that's my reasoning.

Sounds like Bedrocks trainer might be trying to get new owners to have a crack at the Champion. Fingers crossed.  Fighting Fifth against Buveur Dair next and hope for the best.

Obviously not very original but 3/1 buveur d'air in the champion is value to me.

Agreed that 33/1 Sam S is big considering he was favourite last year and not much has changed other than the 4 that finished in front of him could run again plus Identity Thief.

Buveur D'Air at 3/1 is backable even if Samcro pulls-up his socks in The Morgiana. I think he's been under-rated despite winning his 2nd Champion Hurdle on ground far from ideal. If he stays sound he's the one to beat (again) unless a younger pretender comes onto the scene big time.

Summerville Boy was an unlucky winner last year

normal improvement will see him bang there

Nothing today at Wincanton to trouble the CH market although Verdana Blue might be a factor in the mares.

the price of Summerville Boy for the Champion Hurdle is a bit of a headscratcher, 14/1 seems very generous for a horse that looks likely to stay hurdling (unless I've missed something?)

I've had a bit on Stormy Ireland in the mares,looks a different horse from last year,has matured and settled real well at the weekend although granted didn't  beat much,and if laurina goes the churdle route I may have a nice bet on my hands.

had a dip on champ for the Ballymore at 6/1 and Angels Breath at 7/1 for Supreme . Two singles and a double

Angel's Breath (7/1) and Battleoverdoyen (14/1) for the Supreme and Neptune respectively and Native River (6/1) and Anthony Van Dyck (12/1 Derby) for a small stake Yankee.

had a few ....elegant escape at around 50s  before  and 95 after the henessey for gold cup also snow falcon at massive prices 200 plus. lowest price 170 gold cup .also shattered love at around 50s gold cup . bedrock 40 ish  and melon 11s champ hurdle ................

Best looking AP bets

Gold Cup Clan Des Obeaux 34/1 , Kemboy 55/1, Thistlecrack 32/1 ......hopefully after tomorrow Al Boum Photo 36/1
Champion Hurdle Verdana Blue 32/1

Not too shabby a first run of the season beating last years Hennessey (and Grand National fav Total Recall) an 8 lengths defeat.

Minella Rocco 140.0 for Gold Cup

Best

Al Boum Photo 33/1 (e/w) - Gold Cup
Vinndication 33/1 - JLT Chase (please!)

Few others that haven't moved much or are 100/1+ 'speculatives' (Mohayyed for the Champion Hurdle for a couple of quid)

Worst

Summerville Boy 14/1 - Champion Hurdle

Sharjah 50s Champion

Sharjah 50s Champion Santini 10s RSA & Persenting Percy 6s Gold Cup Trixie

Worst was probably Jack Regan Triumph

Sold not long after