Cheltenham Festival
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Stayers' hurdle
Stayers' hurdle
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Well there is only 1 English horse who will most likely win so could be ew steal if price is right
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Eddie O'Leary saying Samcro "very doubtful". https://twitter.com/Ui_Maine/status/1101580681648451584
No surprise really. |
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Will the bookies take on Paisley Park on the morning of the race? He looks big at 15/8 to me. He's beaten the best of the Brits with ease, so the Irish would have to be the main danger. Samcro is doubtful, Supasundae wants shorter and Faugheen, as good as he has been, is coming on the back of a fall at the age of 11. I'm not usually one for backing shorties at the festival, but this looks banker material to me.
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Except you didn't know 48 hours ago when it starte drifting
I honestly think less than 2\1 Paisley Park is a lay. There are some serious irish horses in this race , some of which we don't know get three miles. One of them will ! 8 favs in 28 years makes an even stronger case, LAYING here. |
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Paisley Park drifted because of the support for Faugheen - only God knows why! Another Thistlecrack performance beckons, I reckon; 'billies' 5/4 only.
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Not sure why Samcro was ever fancied for this!!
As for serious Irish horses, just had another look at probable runners as i could not think of any.....i still cant!! Faugheen at the age of 11 after this prep and his problems?? No thanks at the price available. Think this race is pretty simple looking at it right now. |
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if he was trained by mullins,henderson or elliot the 2 and the 1 would be the other way round,the bookies will defo try to get him beat and go around 2/1 on the morning but not for much
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It depends what the irish leave in there
Paisley definitely best of the english But the performance versus serious irish horses Last year Suggests he might be found wanting LAY LAY LAY |
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Let’s hope there isn’t a change of plan with apples jade
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Presenting Percy destroyed his Irish opponents in his hurdle run so surely none of those behind him are good enough. I still see West Approach as a place bet as he has beaten the rest of the British contenders.
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Well if AJ runs thats a different thing,but that seems highly unlikely.
If Faugheen can replicate previous 3m form hes a serious challenger,thats unlikely imo. No, i think it could be a serious mistake trying to get the fav beat. |
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Always something that goes off and tries to run the finish out of them
Fabulous saga last year, cole harden actually did it thre e times Succeeded once, plenty in there short of three.mile experience Willing to cut out pace for staying stablemate...... Mid division wont do this time |
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"Paisley Park definitely the best of the English. But the performance vs serious Irish horses last year suggests he might be found wanting"
PP (Paisley Park not Presenting Percy) beat the best of the English by an easy 12l in his last Stayers' Trial, and also won another recognised Trial at Ascot yet he's still available at 2/1. However, the other PP (Irish one) has not run a Gold Cup Trial (at all, here or in Ireland) or even run in a chase yet "lunatics" have him at 7/2 fav for the Gold Cup before the reining champion and new winner of the King George another recognised Gold Cup Trial. How utterly bizarre is that? To me this is utterly, utterly 'blarney' talking. Oh, if anyone is interested he did pop over a few fences at a racecourse in Ireland (today I think) cloak-in-secrecy even MI6 would be proud of. |
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The horse has been popping over fences for the last six weeks pal.
Because he hasnt gonethe "usual" route of your trials His price is wrong. How bizarre is that ? |
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Its always a good thing for layers to be around,when you fancy a horse.
Paisley looks to be value to me,certainly compared to some other horses at the festival. |
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Only thing utterly bizarre
Around here Your posts..... |
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Irishone
Simple question......Do you think his price is right? |
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Dont forget anything that comes second in a staying hurdle
At cheltenham Will naturally be branded a non stayer by impossible    |
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I'd not back the Irish PP with my granny's money as his price is false and sh1t; I'd back NR and/or CDO any time, any day over PP at 7/2. However, I may lay him if he's any shorter than 7/2 on the day, and I'm a backer of horses.
Utterly, utterly bonkers of the highest order, and only his fellow Irish country men/women will back him at that price! |
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if they hadnt kept entering pp to run then pull him out i wouldnt have been worried about his prep but it just suggests to me they have wanted to get a run into him but couldnt which has to be a negative,the same applies to santini although he wasnt allowed to run
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Imp 123 versus the bookie well only 1 lunatic there
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Think Kilbricken Storm is a bit of a forgotten horse.Excellent cheltenham form.
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Yeh,i think KS will need fairly soft conditions,but he does love Cheltenham,and at the prices worth a shot imo.
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Ran a cracker on 'yielding' at punchestown festival just getting touched off by delta work and next destination. Think he's a really good value bet.
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backed him in last years albert bartlett ( w and p ) , large price on here ( 60s ish ) , good times.
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Morpeth Mackey...... fantastic!!!!
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aye, it was me only winner of the whole week though
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no samcro
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Can anyone seriously back Faugheen at 9/2 (2nd fav)? I'm flummoxed just as I'm with 'Brexit'; stable and past glories induced purely to me.
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in answer to your question i would imagine a fair few have backed faugheen, an easy 13 length victory over penhill at 3 miles at is not shabby and if he is as good as last year he will be a danger to all .
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Keeping banging on about his age is all very well but only if his form at that age backs the argument up.
Last April he destroyed the reigning champion and co at Punchestown, left alone in front yes, going a decent enough pace and keeping going, 3 milers aren't used to that sort of treatment. This year, (aged 11) whether he would have beaten AJ or not is beside the point, the point is Walsh who is not partial to fanciful notions said that he was very happy with Faugheen when he came down. It's reasonable to assume that at the very worst Faugheen would not have been embarrassed at the end of that race at the very least, this against a horse who is fighting for the CH itself and would probably be favourite for the Stayers itself. Since the fall connections who would be forgiven for erring on the side of caution have said that Faugheen has shown no signs of ill effect from the fall and they go there happy with him. Paisley Park a strong favourite for the Stayers on the back of an impressive win last time, if you've got big prices well done, you couldn't possibly back him at his current price though. For as impressive as he was last time there is one glaring thing for me that came out of the race that I've seen little mention of, they got racing an absolute mile out in that race, Black Op was swinging away far too early and a group of them fell in a hole that exaggerated just how impressive PP was. It's not just alliteration where the similarity with last years race Fav ends IMO, both horses rose from nowhere and both will have gone into the race at cramped odds, SS failed and I'm not a believer in PP yet, I'll have to suffer him winning first. |
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I do not think Penhill was running to the form he won this last year at Punshestown. He's a fragile horse, and he's not been seen since. Now he's injured.
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Im thinking that was not the Penhill we saw at Cheltenham as well,but i do think Faugheen could be a threat if reproducing the run with AJ when he fell.
However i cant back a horse thats had problems and not been seen for a while,at his age, and at the price he is. Hes an interesting runner though. |
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Such a shame Penhill is missing but I still think last years race is much the best form guide as opposed to the poor English trials Paisley Park has been winning. He's been impresive the last twice and if your on at decent prices fair enouugh, but I can't back an Emma Lavelle trained horse at 2/1 for a Cheltenhma Grade 1.
 Supasundae is the class act and should be hard to keep out of the frame but the one for me at the prices is Bacardy's (16/1 nrnb) who fell at the last when starting to storm home last year - reckon he'd have been 3rd at worst. |
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So if he had been 3rd at worst,one can assume he would have finished somewhere near Wholestone,and just in front of Sam Spinner.
These are two of the horses just beaten senseless by PP.....in one of those poor English trials!! |
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Last year's Stayers was a farce of a race. It turned into a sprint thanks to Joe Colliver getting the ride on Sam Spinner all wrong, leaving 2 1/2 milers to take the places. Supasundae gets 3 miles, but just about for me, and I'd be surprised if he stayed well enough to win in a truly run race.
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Just back the horse with the best credential and form, all things being equal. I believe had the fav been trained by a high profile trainer his price would be nearer that of Sir Erec.
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WOW!!!
What a performance from Paisley Park,simply superb. Sam Spinner as well and good to see Colliver get it right this time,and only an exceptional staying hurdler beat him. Faugheen class in defeat,great run from the old boy. Great race,and for me the performance of the week so far. |
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But for Paisley Park my Cheltenham could have been the most disastrous ever.
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