Cheltenham Festival
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Native River and Might Bite 2018 Gold Cup
Native River and Might Bite 2018 Gold Cup
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Replies: 104
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Even those talking through their betting slips can acknowledge this obvious trend in his chase results.
Native River - chasing Good - 0/3 wins Good/Soft - 3/5 wins Soft - 5/5 wins Heavy 0/1 win |
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Oh and by the way the term 'wasn't at his best that day' means he got beat.
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NR at 8/1 is utmost value even though the event is 12 months away; it has that similarity to that won by Don Cossack post his fall in the King George. My only reservation is...history has a habit of repeating itself ie the last three winners of the Gold Cup (GC) had not been able to defend their crown eg Coneygree, Don Cossack and Sizing John. Let's hope NR breaks that trend.
I concur Presenting Percy (PP) needs to improve plenty to be a thorn in either NR or MB; his heading the GC market is a mega surprise to me; PP beat a non-stayer of 3m in Monalee, and was beaten by Our Duke (OD) and receiving 7lbs in the process. I fully understand PP (7) is a year younger than NR (8) and two to MB (9). Shame the GC is not in two months' time otherwise I'd be loading up aplenty on NR and MB and possibly OD too. |
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Eric sounds like an unhappy Might Bite backer.
If you went to any of the previews with Johnson he said good or good/soft ground would be fine but heavy ground would inconvenience the others more. I’m not saying if I had a choice I’d want good ground in next years GC but it wouldn’t be a major concern. The facts are NR has been beaten once since Johnson changed the tactics and now has won a Hennessy, Welsh National, 2 Denman and a Gold Cup....rated 4lbs higher than any other chaser. He’s also got the heart of a lion. I won’t knock Might Bite because I thought he ran the race of his life in the GC. That performance even in defeat was 10lbs better than his wins over Whisper. Maybe he needs heavy ground as well to show his best form ? |
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Native River - chasing
Good - 0/3 wins Good/Soft - 3/5 wins Soft - 5/5 wins |
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he won the hennessy on good going
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3:10
Newbury 26 Nov 2016 Hennessy Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) (Class 1) (4yo+) (3m1f214yds) 3m2f Good To Soft |
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Only a decent ground Gold Cup can end this argument....lets hope we get it next year and both turn up.
Stil its an interesting debate. Myself, I keep thinking about it and as much as I love Might Bite,i just have this fear for him that hes simply not as good as NR when it comes to the Gold Cup conditions. Hope I am wrong though,and next March I am proved wrong. |
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when native river won the hennessy either the distances for every race was wrong or the going was good from looking at the times
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eric_morris
22 Mar 18 05:28 If going is quick Native River may not even be placed regardless of Might Bite. eric_morris 22 Mar 18 05:28 Like last year Did you demote him from 3rd because it wasn't heavy ?? |
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I would back Might Bite to beat NR in almost any other race between 2.5 miles and 3.2 at level weights, but I have watched the Gold Cup several times and as soon as he got to the point that he tried to run out last year (I know it was the new course), his head came up and I think that the paddock entrance rather than the hill caused him to lose interest. Not saying he could have gone past NR anyway, but he certainly threw in the towel at the exact point that they passed the walkway. For that reason I would not back him at Cheltenham.
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If the going was quick NR will certainly not be as effective as his principal rivals eg SJ (if 100% well) and possibly MB - he might not even run; if good, similar, eg SJ, MB and Our Duke (OD); if soft to heavy, NR will be in his element whilst others will not.
I firmly believe the extra distance, heavy going and the stamina laden NR found him out, but which one the most though? Until NR meets MB in the King George (KG) no one will be absolutely sure. But the ease MB was travelling 2 and 1 fence out I'd be hopeful he'd avenge his defeat by NR at a distance shorter than 3.25m irrespective of going; if good or better going, almost a certainty, I firm believe, eg in the KG. |
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might bite was pretty much all out to win this seasons king george against two decent but not top class horses which also suggested stamina limitations
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Agree with every thing you say impossible except that MR (unless blinkers sort him out) will never beat NR in a Gold Cup if they return in the same form. Anywhere else, he probably will.
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It's a good discussion but the only two tracks that NR and MB would run against each other are Newbury and Cheltenham. They will most likely not meet till the Gold Cup as well.
NR is being aimed at the Betfair Chase (soft ground a certainty) then Denman and then Gold Cup next year. MB will probably run in a small field prep race before KG then Gold Cup. Henderson will unlikely want to take on NR 4 weeks before the Gold Cup at Newbury and the ground in the Cotswold is normally bottomless but could be an option if the ground was soft or better. Both horses could go into the race unbeaten in the season again and we are in for a cracker ! |
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I think if the ground in the KG at Kempton is soft or worse that £1m bonus could be too tempting for connections of NR to ignore, and a rethink is possible more so if MB is an absentee. Otherwise, the GC will most likely be where NR and MB will probably meet, all being well.
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Maybe, but the ground would need to be very soft to bring his stamina into play if Might Bite ran. I wouldn't be surprised if Altior had a go if the ground was decent. MB vrs Altior would be a great race on Boxing Day.
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Altior vs MB in the KG will definitely be a crowd attraction on a mega scale - I certainly will be there, if so - but doubt very much it will happen. I think it'd be too much of a step-up in trip for the former plus both are trained by Hendo.
I may even back MB against NR in the KG on heavy going given it is 3m (not 3.25m), and a reverse forecast. |
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Not sure I can handle 50 more weeks of this.
 It could even rival the Yorkhill and Finians Oscar threads for pointless speculation dragged out over the most posts. Before we all start getting too excited about a rematch (when did they ever live up to expectations?), lets see if both horses get there fit and well? Maybe after they've had a couple of runs each next season? Until then it'll just be the usual conjecture going round and round ad infinitum with the entirely predictable hysterical nonsense from the usual source thrown in - Altior V Might Bite in the King George  |
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I'd sooner see a PP v SJ thread
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I'm not so sure about SJ, duffy.
Class horse, but I think he won a weaker race last year and they don't really ever come back the same. PP firmly in the mix and I'd be more interested in Shattered Love or Balco Des Flos at the prices. |
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A PP v SJ thread will be up and running when the latter makes his appearance at a racecourse by Jan 2019. If so, he'd be a serious consideration if coming thro' his 1st race back post injury satisfactorily. Similarly, Our Duke (OD) who beat PP over 20f and giving 7lbs.
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if the going was good we would not be celebrating a native river win , he needs soft at least in the going description.
might bite however needs good at least , but then he cant handle the cul de sac. NR won on merit but i wont oppose mightbite anywhere but cheltenham. |
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So had it been good.....who do you think would have won the race?
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We will never know bud
M b could well have dived off right He definitely looked for the lead up the hill |
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looked for the lead up the hill is more commonly known as being knackered
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NR needs to get there 1st - stats not good concerning defending champion - then soft ground at least for a repeat.
SJ needs to recover from pelvic injury, and run by Feb 2019. MB needs at least good ground to win, similarly, OD. I'm not keen on PP unless he wins the JNwine or Lexus convincingly; Monalee (does not stay); Thistlecrack (gone). The others are non-entities or improbable runners, I believe. |
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Why does Might Bite need good ground ?
His best ever performance was on soft/heavy rather than any run he’s ever produced on good. That is a fact. Not many runners up are raised 3lbs from their winning King George rating on ground that didn’t show his best or better form. Why wasn’t his rating left as it was if he didn’t act on it ? Maybe he ran the race of his life and was just beaten by a better horse. The handicapper probably has more evidence and data to make these judgements than us. |
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I think the assumption was MB will not beat NR on soft or worse going, all things being equal, ie MB will finish behind NR.
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That’s what I was pointing out. People are hoping for good ground for Might Bite next year who on all evidence will run 7lbs lower than this years race beat Native River who needs to run 12lbs lower than this years race. Really ?
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He needs good ground because it would hinder the likes of NR...he doesn't need it for himself per se.
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might bite has won 8 times on good or g\s ground and once on soft from 9 wins .... fact
he doesnt do heavy or a very dodgy simon claisse SOFT native river on the other hand has won once on good going from 4 starts. ..... fact look at might bite coming off the final bend in close up native river is clearly loving the ground with a high knee action might bite isnt as you can see with a much lower stride might bite has run a tremendous race and was on his toes afterwards watch when the jockeys are shaking hands he had loads in the tank and was flicking his ears ten yards out from the line did that go in the handicappers rating ? he is a quirky individual who cant handle the cul de sac did the handicapper put that in his rating ? thats why he looked for the lead up the hill henderson has a year to get that out of him .... but why bother ? aintree, sandown , the king george will do and pull him out next year if the going aint right. |
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not to mention that 100 yards out
the jockey doesnt encourage him anymore he knew what was going on did that go in the handicappers rating ? |
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Might Bite has run only twice on soft ground and these were where he achieved his 2 highest RPRs.....fact.
He traveled like a dream on the ground throughout the GC until the run to the last when his stamina began to run out.....fact. So what if he flicked his ears or even if he danced a jig after the race...what's the relevance of that? He didn't throw in the towel, he just wasn't good enough on the day....fact. |
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ratings aint facts , neither are dreams.
definitely agree he wasnt good enough on the day |
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No but they are much more of an indication of performance than flicked ears and low action
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no disrespect but
clearly you havent been around horses enough , if at all i rate my three in the stable everyday as anywhere between 0 and 100 depending if there is an r in the month. |
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how do you kjnow mite bites stamina ran out ?
what indicators have you as evidencs ? |
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he emptied in the king george and got away with it and at cheltenham he didnt get away with it
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where's your proof lads ?
i think n r stayed better i dont think there was any indication m b didnt stay he was fecked from the last because that was the worst ground on the course if there were indicators what are they ? |