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Mannsy
12 Mar 18 14:22
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Date Joined: 15 Mar 09
| Topic/replies: 5 | Blogger: Mannsy's blog
Hi all,

Interested to get views around whether or not you think the weather (and therefore the likely going [i.e. Heavy/Very Soft]) is likely to: a) improve b) worsen or c) have no effect/negligible effect on each of the Festival's hotpots.

Be very interested to find out how you think about the below;

Getabird
Footpad/Petit Mouchoir/Saint Calvdados
Buveur D'Air
Apples Jade
Samcro
Altior (albeit bad news this morning re. lameness)
Sam Spinner
Apples Shakira
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Report charwell. March 12, 2018 2:14 PM GMT
Will suit Saint Calvados, Sam Spinner (more so because will hamper main rivals stamina), Apples Shakira.

Neutral Getabird, Apples Jade, Footpad, Petit Muochoir

Will hamper Samcro (not because he doesn't go in it but because 2m4f in it may stretch him), Altior, B D'Air (not because he doesn't go in it but suits rivals more)
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 March 12, 2018 2:29 PM GMT
I'm against everything that's lower then 2/1 personally but if i had to pin my colours to a mast it would be Samcro won't win the Ballymore. I've watched his run last time and to me he just simply ran better on that track and ground than the others without quickening or being flashy about it. Being one paced at Cheltenham in a festival race will find him out imo. Not one to look at clocks but everyone with one is saying he was slow.
Report ACStafford March 12, 2018 2:40 PM GMT
Agree mostly with Charwell, but I'd put Buveur D'Air in neutral. I wouldn't think it would particularly hinder Samcro, but might bring some of the others closer too him.
Report Mannsy March 12, 2018 3:17 PM GMT
Thanks guys - interesting views so far. I think you've touched on the key point in many cases I guess; some of the top, TOP horses won't necessarily be hampered directly - but will be in essence due to it perhaps helping out their rivals.

Samcro's an interesting one. There's a huge amount of hype - and a lot from very respected trainers etc; no smoke without fire and all that. However, we've all been involved in the game long enough to know that there's no such thing as a banker; horses that were even more "bombproof" in years past have flopped and - like others - I feel Samcro may be vulnerable therefore too.
Report ACStafford March 12, 2018 3:38 PM GMT
Yes, as good as he looks so far, I think he's too short on Wednesday. He's a chaser in the making and whatever he does over hurdles he's likely to improve upon for fences.
Report marychain1 March 12, 2018 4:08 PM GMT
I cannot see past Samcro ground or not
Report naraic March 12, 2018 4:11 PM GMT
The more bottomless it gets, the more I like the chances of Dounikos and Elegant Escape in the RSA - each way obviously.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 12, 2018 4:14 PM GMT
DAY 1 4 HOTPOTS pays 14.91 with Sky Hills & Betway - ONLY 12.59 with PP & BF.
Report maelduin March 12, 2018 4:17 PM GMT
Samcro is one paced? Laugh

The ground on his last run was very testing and he looked like he handled it perfectly fine. And based on breeding he should have no issues with staying 2m5f.

Not backable at the prices but definitely not one i'd be going after.
Report naraic March 12, 2018 4:31 PM GMT
I suppose PP's odds are understandable given the concession?
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