Cheltenham Festival

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05 Mar 18 14:34
Date Joined: 09 Sep 08
| Topic/replies: 273 | Blogger: Fistfulofdollars's blog
Recent years has seen the County hurdle final field shift dramatically from the beginning of the week to the end of the week due in part to multiple entries. The cut off point in previous years has been (latest first - 2017) 134, 138, 134 and 133. Three of the last four winners have been 138/139. A horse I like, fitting a more progressive profile and having won at Cheltenham in December and whose form (given Remiluc's subsequent CD win and Betfair hurdle run) has been franked, is Smaoineamh Alainn. Entered for this saturday's Imperial cup but pulled out given the risk of testing conditions at Sandown to run in the County (see story below), she will be nicely fresh after a mid-season break.
While it is not a NRNB with BF Sportsbook I believe 40/1 is value at this stage.
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Report unclepuncle March 5, 2018 2:59 PM GMT
Fair shout at the prices. Had a little bet at 45/1 on the exchange.Cool
Report Fistfulofdollars March 5, 2018 3:06 PM GMT
Good luck unclep...I should have added that Smaoineamh Alainn has an OR of I would be very hopeful he'll get in and the connections are clearly keen and expecting too also. Shrewd trainer too.
Report ACStafford March 5, 2018 3:15 PM GMT
Nice call. Certainly looks overpriced.
Report equine flew March 5, 2018 3:51 PM GMT
After the horse won last time, co owner said "Rob Walford says she is the fastest horse he has at home. She'll have to go up a grade now and we would like to get black-type as we bought her to eventually breed from her."
Report unclepuncle March 5, 2018 5:46 PM GMT
Last time she did all her best work on the flat so the fact there is only 1 hurdle in the last 3f or so is hopefully a bonus.
Report equine flew March 5, 2018 6:11 PM GMT
Two horses that were behind her ran in previous races ran today.   The second reads particularly well.

Remiluc - was rated 137 when coming second at Cheltenham  Now rated 144, was a fair second today

Diamond Guy was 17 length behind her at Wincanton.   Diamond Guy was just beaten by the 137 rated Onefortheroad off levels today.

Decided to have a little dabble myself
Report Deptford March 5, 2018 8:00 PM GMT
A good write up, had a pop but only allowed £6.30 ew!!!
Report Fistfulofdollars March 5, 2018 8:22 PM GMT
GL gents...well spotted equine flew. I like the idea he's put the mare away probably which has protected her mark. I notice she's won twice after longish breaks so every chance she can run well fresh. if she gets in at the bottom of the weights in the race can see her being much shorter as she's done little wrong and has CD form in the book.
Report unclepuncle March 7, 2018 11:24 AM GMT
Hunters Call a non runner so have gone in again at 33/1 nrnb.
Report Fistfulofdollars March 8, 2018 6:55 AM GMT
Fair move unclep. I'm on at small stakes at 48, 46 and 40/1, also in multiples. A 33/1 nrnb might be a good back to lay strategy to recover initial stakes. Can see it being less than half this price on the day. If it was a mullins or elliott job with its progressive profile would be in first 3/4 in the market imo.
Report equine flew March 8, 2018 11:18 AM GMT
Likely to get balloted out?
Report Fistfulofdollars March 8, 2018 11:22 AM GMT
Got an OR 137 EF. Based on last four years cut off has been 134, 138, 134 and 133. So very hopeful he'll get in. A lot will depend on the coral cup, martin pipe multiple entry holders above her.
Report equine flew March 8, 2018 11:28 AM GMT
Yes have been looking at the cut off and from recall, I cannot remember as many horses having to come out as this year though.   Not had chance to fully go through those above and check on multiple entries and ground criteria.   Fingers crossed.
Report Fistfulofdollars March 8, 2018 11:54 AM GMT
Have had a quick look through those above him. Very hard to make out definitively the first preference of many but based on a judgement call on those looking more prominent elsewhere and on stated targets for some I reckon it's reasonable to expect 23 to be pulled out which would be just enough. Likely to be a tight call but may know a little more after the coral cup forfeit stage today.
Report Fistfulofdollars March 8, 2018 2:36 PM GMT
equine f - I've done a scan down the card for the coral cup and county now that the former forfeit stage has been declared. I'm fairly confident 23 above Smoineamh Allain will come out. Should get a run ok.
Report unclepuncle March 8, 2018 2:38 PM GMT
Report Fistfulofdollars March 8, 2018 2:49 PM GMT
fingers crossed and pending a significant second guessing of mullins and elliott...those renowned Irish butchers!
Report Fistfulofdollars March 8, 2018 5:25 PM GMT
Storm Home beaten first time out by Smaoneamh Allain at Wincanton, fairly readily by 1 1/2l (winner receiving 1lb), won today by 8l beating a 132 rated hurdler comfortably off level weights. Suggests Smoaineamh form standing up both from the Wincanton and Cheltenham races she has won this season and could be on a really good mark. Trainer stated the County is the target and hopes she gets in.
Report Fistfulofdollars March 11, 2018 10:50 AM GMT
Well gents Sm Allain needs at least ten more out to sneak into the County off a low weight. By my reckoning going through the card with the uncertaintly of multiple entries I expect 13 to come out: 1,2, 5,10,13,17,19,21,29,30,31,32,36. I have taken out those who ran in the Imperial cup yesterday on the grounds they're unlikely to race again given yesterday's ground and no bonus pickings. Fingers crossed.
Report irishone March 11, 2018 11:30 AM GMT
only want to be on one horse in this race
lumped on when i saw 10st 13lb
apprentice  will ride it ....7 lb more off
stunning bet , for a grade one winner rated 141
only horse closing  SAMCRO in the deloitte
get on now. loves a hill
Report Fistfulofdollars March 11, 2018 11:39 AM GMT
GL Irishone...does it have the pace for the County though?
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y March 11, 2018 11:55 AM GMT
I'd have aimed Whiskey Sour at the Martin Pipe, better option for me and novices have a good record in it
Report the bloob March 11, 2018 12:09 PM GMT
Whiskey Sour not in the betting for the County
Report DECALEC March 11, 2018 12:31 PM GMT
Bleu berry
Report irishone March 11, 2018 9:09 PM GMT
he won twice at galway coming up the hill
picking them off
he got caught by the pace in deloitte agreed 3 out .....
but would samcro not destroy the county field?
he has the pace at the death
thought 2 miles would be enough for him
but willie had him in the cesarewitch which is two mile canter to the start
finished well in his last two but never gone beyond 2miles
he is however a pony
and the weight usually does such souls
the county hurdle is therefore the logical race for me
supreme\ballymore\martin pipe too much weight
coral cup too far
Report johnoo1 March 11, 2018 9:36 PM GMT
Your spot on PF, and i think he will find 10 lenths for the extra 1/2 mile
Report irishone March 11, 2018 10:19 PM GMT
good man yerself johno

dont yer just luv willie bingo !
Report Fistfulofdollars March 12, 2018 10:21 AM GMT
Irishone...whatever your logic Whiskey Sour is not showing up in the market for the County...presumably the Martin Pipe or Coral cup?
Report Fistfulofdollars March 12, 2018 12:16 PM GMT
Based on the Coral cup declarations and the fav Max Dynamite coming out looks good for Sm Allain sneaking in off a nice weight at the bottom of the handicap. Being supported into 20s in place now....not quite a 'plunge' yet ..
Report Deptford March 14, 2018 10:51 AM GMT
In the betting with PP so looks like crept in
Report Fistfulofdollars March 14, 2018 10:57 AM GMT
Thanks Deptford...yes 16s with BF Sportsbook...looks like it'll be nicely at the foot of the weights...won't mind the wet as she got through it before xmas at Cheltenham...fingers crossed it looks like the race has cut up quite a lot and she must have a great chance of being involved ..
Report Deptford March 14, 2018 11:04 AM GMT
Forum gamble!! Im on at 40 and 33s, good luck
Report Fistfulofdollars March 14, 2018 12:34 PM GMT
Thanks - good luck too! On at 48s, 46s and 40/1...race has cut up even more than I thought..might well tighten further on the day..
Report sewter lives again March 14, 2018 2:28 PM GMT
yep on at 33s got an e/w double with definitly red as well
Report Deptford March 14, 2018 4:22 PM GMT
12/1 with Billys
Report Fistfulofdollars March 14, 2018 6:28 PM GMT
Well spotted's 12/1 co fav with Billy's!!!
Report DECALEC March 14, 2018 7:59 PM GMT
Well done guys on getting the odds all it has to do is win unlike mine that already has
Report Fistfulofdollars March 14, 2018 9:30 PM GMT
Well done DECALEC but this thread was about the county hurdle not the coral cup Wink
Report SOULDANCER March 15, 2018 6:43 AM GMT
SPIRITOFTHEGAMES, 25-1 e.w. had to bet this, we have previous, tho strange their going for 2 miler, but slick hurdler who will be ridden more aggressively than last time, going will be fine.
  Will be adding yours who looks progressive looking at the run at Chep last March. Cant access sporting life videos at moment but form with Remiluc puts him on a par with mine.
Report DECALEC March 15, 2018 7:52 AM GMT
You know what a gobshyte you are if it would go unbacked in the coral
Report Fistfulofdollars March 15, 2018 9:02 AM GMT
Souldancer..GL I like spiritofthegames too..had him at 20s in the coral cup ante post..must have been close on par with the 4th on sandown form...I took insurance to small amounts at 55s and 60 when he wasnt declared...can see him running a good race.
Report SOULDANCER March 15, 2018 11:54 AM GMT
Fistfulofdollars, just watched Smaol's last two wins, does look tasty, still looked a bit green last win.

Price dropping, here is the forum plunge that was wanted.
Report 1st time poster March 15, 2018 6:55 PM GMT
ben litefoots put you up at 16,s
Report sewter lives again March 16, 2018 1:37 AM GMT
not so confident now regarding SA the way things are going

looks like the Irish handicappers from the big stables are thrown in, especially some of the novices
Report deepingfox March 16, 2018 7:08 AM GMT
Looks like an Irish benefit again.

SA best of the British.

Given Davy Russell's record at Cheltenham, and his record on the horse, then I am on BEN DUNDEE
Report irishone March 16, 2018 8:42 AM GMT
yeah and this irishone is loving it
told yer the county hurdle for whiskey sour
patrick will get this home
Report cricketnut2 March 16, 2018 1:48 PM GMT
As I stated yesterday, there are not so many races in Ireland, but the ones that are run, have big fields and this year bottomless ground. The UK horses run in mainly small fields, hence their not use to running with loads of horses around them.
Report geoff m March 17, 2018 6:04 PM GMT
absolute sickener for me. My 1st antepost bet in the county was Mohayed @ 34.0 thought it would be suited by usual decent festival ground it ran on the worst of the ground in the greatwood . So the rains came and i bailed out of the bet and thought Remiluc was well overpriced so bet him insteadCryCry
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