Cheltenham Festival
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05 Mar 18
14:34
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Date Joined:
09 Sep 08
Recent years has seen the County hurdle final field shift dramatically from the beginning of the week to the end of the week due in part to multiple entries. The cut off point in previous years has been (latest first - 2017) 134, 138, 134 and 133. Three of the last four winners have been 138/139. A horse I like, fitting a more progressive profile and having won at Cheltenham in December and whose form (given Remiluc's subsequent CD win and Betfair hurdle run) has been franked, is Smaoineamh Alainn. Entered for this saturday's Imperial cup but pulled out given the risk of testing conditions at Sandown to run in the County (see story below), she will be nicely fresh after a mid-season break.
http://www.attheraces.com/news/2018/March/02/robert-walford-considering-his-options-for-exciting-mare-smaoineamh-alainn
While it is not a NRNB with BF Sportsbook I believe 40/1 is value at this stage.
http://www.attheraces.com/news/2018/March/02/robert-walford-considering-his-options-for-exciting-mare-smaoineamh-alainn
While it is not a NRNB with BF Sportsbook I believe 40/1 is value at this stage.
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Replies: 48
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Fair shout at the prices. Had a little bet at 45/1 on the exchange.
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Good luck unclep...I should have added that Smaoineamh Alainn has an OR of 137...so I would be very hopeful he'll get in and the connections are clearly keen and expecting too also. Shrewd trainer too.
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Nice call. Certainly looks overpriced.
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After the horse won last time, co owner said "Rob Walford says she is the fastest horse he has at home. She'll have to go up a grade now and we would like to get black-type as we bought her to eventually breed from her."
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Last time she did all her best work on the flat so the fact there is only 1 hurdle in the last 3f or so is hopefully a bonus.
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Two horses that were behind her ran in previous races ran today. The second reads particularly well.
Remiluc - was rated 137 when coming second at Cheltenham Now rated 144, was a fair second today Diamond Guy was 17 length behind her at Wincanton. Diamond Guy was just beaten by the 137 rated Onefortheroad off levels today. Decided to have a little dabble myself |
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A good write up, had a pop but only allowed £6.30 ew!!!
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GL gents...well spotted equine flew. I like the idea he's put the mare away probably which has protected her mark. I notice she's won twice after longish breaks so every chance she can run well fresh. if she gets in at the bottom of the weights in the race can see her being much shorter as she's done little wrong and has CD form in the book.
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Hunters Call a non runner so have gone in again at 33/1 nrnb.
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Fair move unclep. I'm on at small stakes at 48, 46 and 40/1, also in multiples. A 33/1 nrnb might be a good back to lay strategy to recover initial stakes. Can see it being less than half this price on the day. If it was a mullins or elliott job with its progressive profile would be in first 3/4 in the market imo.
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Likely to get balloted out?
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Got an OR 137 EF. Based on last four years cut off has been 134, 138, 134 and 133. So very hopeful he'll get in. A lot will depend on the coral cup, martin pipe multiple entry holders above her.
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Yes have been looking at the cut off and from recall, I cannot remember as many horses having to come out as this year though. Not had chance to fully go through those above and check on multiple entries and ground criteria. Fingers crossed.
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Have had a quick look through those above him. Very hard to make out definitively the first preference of many but based on a judgement call on those looking more prominent elsewhere and on stated targets for some I reckon it's reasonable to expect 23 to be pulled out which would be just enough. Likely to be a tight call but may know a little more after the coral cup forfeit stage today.
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equine f - I've done a scan down the card for the coral cup and county now that the former forfeit stage has been declared. I'm fairly confident 23 above Smoineamh Allain will come out. Should get a run ok.
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Chaaaaaaarge!!!!!!!
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fingers crossed and pending a significant second guessing of mullins and elliott...those renowned Irish butchers!
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Storm Home beaten first time out by Smaoneamh Allain at Wincanton, fairly readily by 1 1/2l (winner receiving 1lb), won today by 8l beating a 132 rated hurdler comfortably off level weights. Suggests Smoaineamh form standing up both from the Wincanton and Cheltenham races she has won this season and could be on a really good mark. Trainer stated the County is the target and hopes she gets in.
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Well gents Sm Allain needs at least ten more out to sneak into the County off a low weight. By my reckoning going through the card with the uncertaintly of multiple entries I expect 13 to come out: 1,2, 5,10,13,17,19,21,29,30,31,32,36. I have taken out those who ran in the Imperial cup yesterday on the grounds they're unlikely to race again given yesterday's ground and no bonus pickings. Fingers crossed.
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only want to be on one horse in this race
lumped on when i saw 10st 13lb apprentice will ride it ....7 lb more off stunning bet , for a grade one winner rated 141 only horse closing SAMCRO in the deloitte get on now. loves a hill |
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GL Irishone...does it have the pace for the County though?
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I'd have aimed Whiskey Sour at the Martin Pipe, better option for me and novices have a good record in it
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Whiskey Sour not in the betting for the County
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Bleu berry
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fistful
he won twice at galway coming up the hill picking them off he got caught by the pace in deloitte agreed 3 out ..... but would samcro not destroy the county field? he has the pace at the death thought 2 miles would be enough for him but willie had him in the cesarewitch which is two mile canter to the start finished well in his last two but never gone beyond 2miles he is however a pony and the weight usually does such souls the county hurdle is therefore the logical race for me supreme\ballymore\martin pipe too much weight coral cup too far |
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Your spot on PF, and i think he will find 10 lenths for the extra 1/2 mile
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good man yerself johno
dont yer just luv willie bingo ! |
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Irishone...whatever your logic Whiskey Sour is not showing up in the market for the County...presumably the Martin Pipe or Coral cup?
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Based on the Coral cup declarations and the fav Max Dynamite coming out looks good for Sm Allain sneaking in off a nice weight at the bottom of the handicap. Being supported into 20s in place now....not quite a 'plunge' yet ..
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In the betting with PP so looks like crept in
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Thanks Deptford...yes 16s with BF Sportsbook...looks like it'll be nicely at the foot of the weights...won't mind the wet as she got through it before xmas at Cheltenham...fingers crossed it looks like the race has cut up quite a lot and she must have a great chance of being involved ..
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Forum gamble!! Im on at 40 and 33s, good luck
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Thanks - good luck too! On at 48s, 46s and 40/1...race has cut up even more than I thought..might well tighten further on the day..
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yep on at 33s got an e/w double with definitly red as well
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12/1 with Billys
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Well spotted Deptford..it's 12/1 co fav with Billy's!!!
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Well done guys on getting the odds all it has to do is win unlike mine that already has
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Well done DECALEC but this thread was about the county hurdle not the coral cup
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SPIRITOFTHEGAMES, 25-1 e.w. had to bet this, we have previous, tho strange their going for 2 miler, but slick hurdler who will be ridden more aggressively than last time, going will be fine.
Will be adding yours who looks progressive looking at the run at Chep last March. Cant access sporting life videos at moment but form with Remiluc puts him on a par with mine. |