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eric_morris
01 Mar 18 11:42
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Date Joined: 27 Jun 10
| Topic/replies: 7,903 | Blogger: eric_morris's blog
What is the advantage of taking a short antepost price nrnb compared to backing the horse on the day when quite often it will be a bigger price as the bookies compete for custom Cheltenham week?

What if your nrnb horse runs a bad prep race and your 7/2 Politilogue nrnb becomes a 20/1 chance? Was it worth the risk taking virtually day of race prices with the nrnb rule months before the meeting? Do you still want it to run or would you rather have your money back to back it at multiple times the price you took early, on the day?

What is the cumulative affect of you taking say 66% worse price on all your Cheltenham antepost bets by taking the shorter nrnb prices? Work out your take home pay, reduce it by 40% and see how much you have left to spend each year. Come on people wake up before all interest in antepost disappears due to bookie accountants greed.
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Report eric_morris March 1, 2018 11:45 AM GMT
Before the getting a run reason is raised, trainers move heaven and earth to get horses to the Festival for connections it is the be all and end all for most waiting all year for it. You dont need 40% knocking off every price you take in case the relatively rare event, considering the number of participants, happens.
Report Can't Catch Me March 1, 2018 12:42 PM GMT
Still value to be had backing antepost NRNB eric... just a case of finding it.

I have some good and bad.... Getabird at 12/1 for the Supreme NRNB, Tiger Roll at 10/1 for the X Country NRNB, Blackbow at 20/1 NRNB for the Bumper, Invitation Only 10/1 for the JLT NRNB, Cue Card at 16/1 for the Ryanair NRNB, Stormey Ireland at 16/1 for the Triumph NRNB.

All about timing. Id agree that from now on in, you are probably best waiting for the extra places and offers for 90% of horses... but with NRNB being available much earlier this year I think you could make it work to your advantage still.
Report Desmond Orchard March 1, 2018 1:36 PM GMT
I think NRNB is a good concession when there is significant doubt regarding participation, for instance some firm went 5/1 Douvan NRNB for the QMCC - which is great value.
But agree with Eric otherwise, you're just locking in a poor price.
Report KIMBLE March 1, 2018 5:23 PM GMT
i think 365 gives sp if better tbh
Report eric_morris March 1, 2018 6:20 PM GMT
When i ring Bet£3.65 for an antepost bet they say 'Sorry sir, you cant have anything on that'.

That is the reality of betting with them. If you still get on it means you are losing. You will know when you get that reply that you are getting ahead with them.

Half a billion pounds profit a year by turning away anyone who gets lucky, i dont get inside info, just what i see on telly.
Report maelduin March 1, 2018 6:23 PM GMT
There was great value to be had when bookies started the NRNB (all races) concession the beginning of January. Look at the prices CCM got for example. You could even have backed the beast Samcro at 9/2. As an AP punter you just have to start earlier then usual. GL
Report maelduin March 1, 2018 6:25 PM GMT
Make that 2/1 for the beast. Mea Cupla.
Report eric_morris March 1, 2018 6:27 PM GMT
I can see that there was value early but you have to be assured that those prices will get shorter year on year if punters play ball with them. This will eradicate antepost value over time just like they have eroded any value in the ring and in betting shops day of race.
Report eric_morris March 1, 2018 6:30 PM GMT
Antepost has never been an overround victim but by introducing nrnb you can be sure it is aiming towards high overrounds and low value over time.

Without nrnb there has to be value in the prices as nobody will take short prices if they might lose it with a nr.
Report Desmond Orchard March 1, 2018 6:55 PM GMT
Everyone is mentioning the ones that shorten, but what about those that don’t?
Plus, of those mentioned, all would’ve been longer without the concession and they all seem to be on target for their assumed races - so you’ve given up the value, as Eric states.
I think I’d rather trust my judgement and that the gods are going to be in my favour and take the better price. I’ve taken a hit this year with Fountains Windfall, but that’s the deal.
In general, anything shiny and new that the layers are prepared to ‘offer’ you, hasn’t been devised with your wallet in mind.
Report eric_morris March 1, 2018 7:13 PM GMT
Unfortunately you dont see it here. The only way they can give you any VALUE with a guarantee is if they offer you best morning price. By the time it gets to SP all horses will be VERY SHORT

KIMBLE 01 Mar 18 17:23

i think 365 gives sp if better tbh
Report saxon farm March 4, 2018 1:21 AM GMT
I see it perfectly correctly.

BOG with NRNB has the insurance of no RULE 4

If any not stated or more of these  do not turn up  Footpad, Buveur Dair, Applves Jade, Altior,  Getabird etc the concession is brilliant.

Bleatings that I can’t get on are inevitable and understood.
Report eric_morris March 4, 2018 1:53 AM GMT
So you are willing to take sht odds in case another horse prepared specifically for the race by a trainer pulling out all the stops, doesnt turn up? Can i be your bookmaker please?


saxon farm 03 Mar 18 20:26

So then if for example either  Altior  Buveur Dair, Footpad, Apples Jade or Samcro cannot turn up,  I would suggest the concession is excellent, as Rule 4 is not involved.
Report saxon farm March 4, 2018 3:44 AM GMT
Hello Eric
No I can’t be your bookmaker, and I wish you well.

On the other hand would you Eric lay me 14/1 Samcro NRNB for The Supreme?
Or perhaps 11/1 each way My Tent..... NRNB & BOG.
Maybe On The Blind SIde11/2  each way as above.

I understand that you are restricted and cannot avail yourself.

It’s the Rule 4 advantage now prevailing against a day of market.
Report ACStafford March 4, 2018 11:00 AM GMT
It is a great concession. There are of course cases when the price will be bigger on the day, but it is up for the punter to decipher where the value is, as if you're any good at that, most of your punts will be on horses that will be shorter on the day.

Plenty of horses fail to make the festival, mainly through injury. From my experience, we tend to get one horse a day falling by the wayside when we're this close. I'd say the best place to find value is in races that you believe may cut up through horses changing target.

Though, the closer to the festival we get, the more the comment from the op holds true. Comments from preview nights and tipsters etc lead to horses being cut without any resulting drifts. From the 6 day decs I stop betting, as you can all but guarantee the value has been extracted from the markets until the day of the race.
Report Afc888 March 4, 2018 10:17 PM GMT
Can somebody confirm how the NRNB rule works on Bet365? Do they include a Rule 4? Say I was to bet on horse X @ 20/1 NRNB and some of the listed runners in the market do not run would this incur a rule 4 or? I presumed you wouldn't as its an Ante-Post market I'm struggling to get it confirmed. Can anybody help silly question I know however some of the bookies offer different terms from past experience.
Report saxon farm March 5, 2018 5:39 PM GMT
Rule 4 does not apply to NRNB.
Report eric_morris March 5, 2018 6:09 PM GMT
It doesnt apply but the odds are sht and you dont know the conditions for your horse on the day. You are giving up anything up to 50% value just in case your horse doesnt make it in the next week. They will be bigger prices on the day than they are now.
Report Afc888 March 5, 2018 6:45 PM GMT
Not necessarily. I think there is some value to be had especially for horse's who's targets we are still unsure of as you'd receive a refund anyway. Samcro yesterday for example what's the harm in backing at 14/1 (Unlikely to turn up yes) But what are you losing? Not a lot.. Personally that would be the way I use them. Not for backing short price hot pots who more than likely will drift/be taken on a little bit. (Which I would agree on the prices will be similar if not bigger on the day).    Thanks for the confirmation btw Saxon.
Report equine flew March 5, 2018 7:00 PM GMT
Another thing to consider is that on the day a lot of bookies will be going 5 or even 6 places on the big handicaps. Standard place terms apply to NRNB whereas on the day you should be able to get 1/4 every race
Report eric_morris March 7, 2018 8:40 AM GMT
A few nrnb bookie prices below the wednesday before the festival. Will morning prices be better?

Supreme Novices Hurdle

Getabird                5/4        11/8        11/8
Kalashnikov            9/2        9/2        9/2
Summerville Boy        10        10        10
Mengli Khan            11        12        10
Paloma Blue            12        14        12
Claimantakinforgan    11        12        10
Sharjah                16        14        16

Arkle Chase

Footpad                5/4        11/8        5/4
Petit Mouchoir        2        9/4        2
Saint Calvados        10/3        10/3        3
Brain Power            7        7        13/2
North Hill Harvey        16        16        16
Montalbano            33        33        40

Champion Hurdle

Buveur D’Air            4/9        4/9        1/2
Faugheen            5        11/2        9/2
My Tent Or Yours        10        10        9
Yorkhill                10        12        10
Wicklow Brave        14        14        14
Melon                10        16        14
Elgin                20        20        16

Ballymore Novices Hurdle

Samcro                4/6        4/6        4/6
On The Blind Side        9/2        5        5
Next Destination        7/2        11/2        7/2
Black Op                12        14        12
Vinndication            12        14        12

RSA Chase

Presenting Percy        5/2        5/2        5/2
Monalee                10/3        7/2        3
Black Corton            7        7        7
Al Boum Photo        9        11        8
Dounikos            10        10        10
Ballyoptic            12        16        12
Benatar                14        20        16

Champion Chase

Altior                4/6        8/11        4/6
Min                    9/4        11/4        9/4
Douvan                10/3        9/2        7/2
Politilogue            8        8        8
Special Tiara            12        16        12

JLT Novices Chase

Invitation Only        10/3        7/2        7/2
Moralee                5/2        5        5/2
Modus                15/2        7        13/2
Terrafort                6        7        6
Finians Oscar            9        8        9
Benatar                8        8        9
Shattered Love        14        16        14
Bigmartre            16        16        16

Ryanair Chase

Un De Sceaux        2        2        2
Waiting Patiently        7/2        3        7/2
Balko Des Flos        7        13/2        7
Top Notch            7        7        7
Cue Card            7        8        7
Frodon                16        16        16

Stayers Hurdle

Supasundae            3        10/3        3
Sam Spinner            4        5        4
Yanworth            5        5        5
Penhill                8        10        8
Unowhatimeanharry    10        12        10
L’Ami Serge            10        12        10
The New One            12        12        12
Bacardys            11        12        12
Wholestone            12        14        12

Triumph Hurdle

Apples Shakira        3        5/2        3
Redicean            4        4        4
Farclas                7        8        7
Mr Adjudicator        7        8        7
Stormy Ireland        7        7        7
We Have A Dream        7        7        7
Saldier                10        10        10
Sussex Ranger        14        16        16

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

Santini                4        9/2        4
Chef Des Obeaux        6        6        11/2
Next Destination        4        5        4
Duc Des Genievres    5        6        5
Chris’s Dream        12        12        12
Poetic Rhythm        12        14        12
Calett Mad            14        16        14

Cheltenham Gold Cup

Might Bite            3        3        3
Native River            5        11/2        5
Sizing John            6        6        6
Our Duke            13/2        7        7
Killultagh Vic            10        10        10
Road To Respect        8        9        8
Definitely Red        16        16        16
Total Recall            16        16        16
Report equine flew March 7, 2018 9:21 AM GMT
Well done Eric for posting the data, will be interesting to compare with best prices on morning of race and then again at SP
Report eric_morris March 7, 2018 9:23 AM GMT
Someone had a look at SP's last year and found that of the 28 races only 4 winners had SP's the same or longer than opening show, yes thats not even compared to morning prices but opening show.
Report eric_morris March 7, 2018 9:25 AM GMT
Anyone citing the 'guaranteed SP if better' offer as a good reason to take antepost nrnb is deluding themselves.
Report eric_morris March 7, 2018 9:34 AM GMT
Apparently one of those opening show drifters was Altior 2/9 to 1/4. Not going to get rich there are we?
Report unclepuncle March 7, 2018 1:17 PM GMT
Well I'm already quids in. £100 up having backed Sceau Royal nrnb and laid it off before he was withdrawn, and had laid off £40 of my Hunters Call bet.

Also laid off my Samcro 14/1 nrnb at 7/1 on Monday so if he doesn't run in it I'll be £71 up, and if he does I'll have a free bet at 7/1 on an odd-on shot.

Also already have a free £200 bet at 6/4 on Getabird (backed at 7/2, laid off at 2/1), and £100 free bets at 3/1 on Movewiththetimes (backed at 10's laid off at 7's), 4/1 on Mall Dini (backed at 10/1 laid off at 6's) and 3/1 on Tully East (backed at 11's laid off at 8's) with plenty more backed at prices that I am sure I can lay off for a nice free bet. Eg. £100 Any Second Now @ 12/1, £100 @ 33/1 and £100 @ 25/1 on Esprit De Somoza, £100 @ 10/1 Flawless Escape, £100 @ 12/1 Don't Touch It.

Silly to look a gift horse in the mouth Eric.Devil
Report eric_morris March 7, 2018 3:42 PM GMT
Looks like it is all one way with you uncle .. not a single drifter or non runner for you, well that you've listed anyway.

All the prices for horses in their targetted race would have been around 40% bigger on the day you placed them without nrnb so your laid off bets could have been SOOOOOO MUCH BETTER without nrnb. Never mind you giving all that profit away this year uncle as long as it is on the plus side this time. False economics over time what you are taking as they get squeezed. Nobody would take short prices antepost without nrnb unless the price is worth it ... that is the clincher, always has been, always will be.
Report eric_morris March 7, 2018 3:45 PM GMT
Correction, a non runner with Sceaux Royal
Report eric_morris March 7, 2018 3:54 PM GMT
So if the prices had not been nrnb but instead the usual all in run or not you would have had 5/1 Getabird instead of 7/2 (£200 free bet at 5/2 instead of the 6/4 you have. You have given away £200 possible profit) because you are a scaredy cat.
You dont quote prices for Sceaux Royale but without NRNB you would have lost £100 ? Well you have given away £200 profit on Getabird's price alone by taking nrnb not very smart is it as that one price gain more could have regained your Sceaux Royal stake twice over?

Movewiththetimes you took 10s nrnb rather than say 14s (40% better price) without nrnb so you gave away 4pts which to your £100 unit stake is £400. Are you mad taking £100 free bet at 3/1 instead of 7/1 after laying off the 14/1 instead of your 10/1 nrnb at 7/1?

I could repeat this with your other bets but cant be bothered you have probably given away over £1000 profit if they win. Nightmare mate, basic maths!!!


unclepuncle

Well I'm already quids in. £100 up having backed Sceau Royal nrnb and laid it off before he was withdrawn, and had laid off £40 of my Hunters Call bet.

Also laid off my Samcro 14/1 nrnb at 7/1 on Monday so if he doesn't run in it I'll be £71 up, and if he does I'll have a free bet at 7/1 on an odd-on shot.

Also already have a free £200 bet at 6/4 on Getabird (backed at 7/2, laid off at 2/1), and £100 free bets at 3/1 on Movewiththetimes (backed at 10's laid off at 7's), 4/1 on Mall Dini (backed at 10/1 laid off at 6's) and 3/1 on Tully East (backed at 11's laid off at 8's) with plenty more backed at prices that I am sure I can lay off for a nice free bet. Eg. £100 Any Second Now @ 12/1, £100 @ 33/1 and £100 @ 25/1 on Esprit De Somoza, £100 @ 10/1 Flawless Escape, £100 @ 12/1 Don't Touch It.

Silly to look a gift horse in the mouth Eric.Devil
Report eric_morris March 7, 2018 3:59 PM GMT
If you have given away £1000 of your profit in case of non runners thats 10 fkin none runners (at your £100 unti stake) you could have had all in run or not and still be the same off with prices by taking nrnb.

I have never had anywhere near 10 none runners in over 30 years betting at Cheltenham, jeez you are haemorrhaging profits taking nrnb prices mate. Never mind please turn out the antepost lights on your way out.
Report charwell. March 7, 2018 4:31 PM GMT
Ignore Uncle Puncle. He never loses. Ont he LFC thread he appears everytime they fail to win as of course he laid them. Only on those weeks mind Crazy

He is so full of sh1t.
Report FOYLESWAR March 7, 2018 5:10 PM GMT
i used to do nrnb but stopped as the books take the pish with the cutting of prices ,have to say i agree with eric on this !
Report eric_morris March 7, 2018 5:46 PM GMT
I just tried to place £200 Win on a horse with Ladbrokes but they are limiting me to a £1000 possible win automatically. Dont think it even went to the traders as it calculated automatically the stake amount.

That is a really bad sign from the ex-magic now tragic for the Festival sign.

Coral took it straight away not even referred.

Looking grim for the biggest meeting of the year with the magic sign accountants adding their calculations to the phone lines.
Report eric_morris March 7, 2018 5:47 PM GMT
By the way I have waited until i know more about this horse, it isnt for nrnb I waited for certain :)
Report eric_morris March 7, 2018 5:58 PM GMT
Unlike unclepuncle I wont be laying off my antepost bets
Report maelduin March 7, 2018 6:20 PM GMT
Clearly unclepuncle's strategy is to end in the black no matter what happens. By doing this he is limiting his profit but that's the game he is playing. You can't maximize profit and limit loss at the same time.

Every year, around this time, the same anti-AP posters come out telling us it is terrible and you can't profit. Yes it is getting worse but that doesn't mean you can't profit. Of course when they see people are profiting they just change the narrative to "haemorrhaging profits taking nrnb prices". Crazy
Report eric_morris March 7, 2018 6:23 PM GMT
If prices get less year on year with nrnb there is a tipping point at which point there will be no value betting antepost. Simple. unclepuncle will be locking in fk all by then. In any case antepost backers dont just back to lay they embrace the danger !
Report unclepuncle March 7, 2018 7:05 PM GMT
The £1k limit seems to be pretty common in my experience.
Laddies/Corals/Paddy’s/Boyles being my exception - £100 is my limit, except Corals where I am banned completely.

Charwell is a sad case - still thinks Licerpool are the best team in Europe. I lose plenty but always post my bets on here in advance. However I do consider myself the best judge of the market that there is - hence nrnb being a license to print money.
Report eric_morris March 7, 2018 7:09 PM GMT
unclepuncle they know i dont arb.  You cant arb four figure multiples. If this is a new initiative to become the new 'Bet£3.65 unless you are a footballer' then the game is going to lose its enthusiasts.
Report unclepuncle March 7, 2018 7:10 PM GMT
Four figure multiples - you have massive balls Eric.Grin
Report eric_morris March 7, 2018 7:15 PM GMT
Have trouble walking most of the time Laugh
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