Cheltenham Festival

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28 Feb 18 10:41
Date Joined: 09 Sep 08
| Topic/replies: 288 | Blogger: Fistfulofdollars's blog
Ladbrokes and Coral have both taking him out of their betting today - weights have not yet been published. Anybody heard if he's been scratched?
Pause Switch to Standard View Theinval Grand annual
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Report jfromthewells February 28, 2018 10:49 AM GMT
nothing on uni bet that where he breaks his news to the public
Report Fistfulofdollars February 28, 2018 10:59 AM GMT
Thanks JF - Yes I did not notice anything on the twitter site either but very odd they've removed him the day the weights are declared. Could be a clerical error (they're joined at the hip now so would only need one of them!).
Report Fistfulofdollars February 28, 2018 2:12 PM GMT
Brokes and Joe now re-instated him in the betting...mysterious...
Report Can't Catch Me February 28, 2018 2:29 PM GMT
Slightly concerned he won't get in myself.
Report Fistfulofdollars February 28, 2018 2:48 PM GMT
His handicap mark is 141. The last four runnings of the grand annual have had lowest rated horses running off (latest - 2017 first) 135, 137, 130 and 136. On that basis he's got a very good chance of getting in.
Report Can't Catch Me February 28, 2018 2:51 PM GMT
Hope you are right FFD as I am on at 33/1.... but the differential in ratings there proves how much of a lottery it is to know.

He's 40th on the list in a max field of 24... so we need plenty to come out. Just hope there aren't a few who just fancy a day out.
Report Ramruma March 1, 2018 12:06 PM GMT
Is this the annual "Nicky Henderson's going to win because it's named after his dad" thread? I expect it will pay off one year.
Report buddeliea March 1, 2018 12:17 PM GMT
He has won the race Ramruna.
Report buddeliea March 1, 2018 12:18 PM GMT
More than once
Report Can't Catch Me March 1, 2018 12:32 PM GMT
Yeah thats it Ramruna. Only reason I'm backing the horse Laugh

Not because he ran a blinder last year to be only only beaten 2l in third and has got back in on the exact same mark.
Report unclepuncle March 1, 2018 12:42 PM GMT
I backed him last year as he was obviously laid out for it all seaosn, and he ran well but ultimately got beat with everthing in his favour.

Likely softer ground won't help him either so while he has a very solid e/w chance I don't see him winning it off the same mark, and current price doesn't interest me e/w either.

Jessie to win it again imo.Love
Report Can't Catch Me March 1, 2018 12:45 PM GMT
I backed him ew at 33/1 uncle.... happy enough with that Mischief
Report Ramruma March 1, 2018 12:46 PM GMT
Two wins, four seconds and three thirds according to the RP Cheltenham guide. I'm in (or I might be on Friday fortnight).
Report Can't Catch Me March 1, 2018 12:50 PM GMT
I think he's absolutely fine on GS ground uncle. Personally I'll be surprised if its any worse than that by Friday.
Report unclepuncle March 1, 2018 12:56 PM GMT
33/1 is clearly a greta e/w bet CCM - I'd never have thought he would be that big being such an obvious contender.

Good to soft is fine, but I'm expecting it to be very soft by the middle of next week - what the weather does after that is of course the unknown, but if it did rain during the meeting then by the last race on Friday it could be pretty chewed up.

I've even done a few silly accas on the mudlarks just in case.Crazy
Report Can't Catch Me March 1, 2018 3:47 PM GMT
I just cant see it tbh. Think everyone is hugely over reacting re the weather myself.

Kempton went from heavy on its 9th Feb meeting to Good on its 24th Feb meeting. Cheltenham was Good to Soft yesterday and we have a couple of days snow, which isnt equivalent to heavy rainfall, then clearing by Sunday and still 9 days to go. As we all know it drains quicker than anywhere.

There isnt any heavy rainfall in the long range forecast.
Report ACStafford March 1, 2018 3:59 PM GMT
Completely agree CCM. It seems to be that a few on here have backed a soft ground festival and are now exaggerating any amount of precipitation in the forecasts due to some kind of confirmation bias. There seems to be discussions about whether we'll see soft ground almost every year, but the course always excels itself at drying out. It could be softer than usual this year, but I'd be surprised if it was any worse than soft, good to soft in places.
Report nocturnal March 2, 2018 8:55 AM GMT
Gold Present

Neither carried my cash 2017.....Just a few minutes watching both replays will tell you all you need to know.

Should the words J MCGRATH be attached to any horse.....Avoid

Two of the worst rides at last years meeting,both should have hosed up.

This stable has a remarkable record for putting up clowns,tinkler also springs to mind.
Report Can't Catch Me March 2, 2018 11:17 AM GMT
Definitely cant argue with that noc. McGrath is certainly useless.

But as NJH's clear first choice in the race, hopefully Nico will ride.
Report buddeliea March 2, 2018 12:11 PM GMT
Don't think you have to have had a bet to realise we could well have soft ground or worse.
The way the weather has been,still is,and set to carry on for another week or so,nothing should surprise us.
I am certainly looking at prices for horses that act on soft at the moment,just in case.
Report Fistfulofdollars March 2, 2018 12:41 PM GMT
For me I've watched all his runs this season and as unclep observed he was laid out for it last year and looks very much the same this year. he is back to his same mark and there's reason to believe he should be competitive again. Agreed the 33s is value and 12s is starting to look a bit thin, but NH targets this race every year and has won it twice with lots of near misses in the last 11 years (Greenhope and Bellvano). there are worse trends to follow at Cheltenham. As for the going I will be surprised if it hasn't dried out to a G/s (good in places) at worst. Agreed at present this is tricky to predict but past cheltenham trends suggest the course dries out/drains well (assuming a dry forecast). If so that should suit him imo and I expect him to be much shorter on the day.
Report Fistfulofdollars March 2, 2018 12:43 PM GMT
Incidentally both greenhope and bellvano were 20/1 sps so undoubtedly a profitable trend if you followed it Ramruma...
Report buddeliea March 2, 2018 12:55 PM GMT
Well up to you,but I have no intention of relying on past Cheltenham trends with the unusual weather for this time of year.
Wait before backing horses that prefer decent ground is my take on it.
Report unclepuncle March 2, 2018 1:13 PM GMT
Going to be a lack of grass for sure and I don't think the ground will have that 'bounce effect' that you sometimes get leading to very fast times.

Even if it isn't wet in the lead up that could mean very sticky, dead 'hard work' ground certainly on the opening day.

Obviously if it is dry and warm through the meeting it will dry out quickly and could be good come the Friday - a scenario which should suit my main antepost bets perfectly.

Just watched last years race back and Theinval runs very well - not sure the jockewy can be blamed for anything. The winner Rock The World comes down the outside and then comes across him at the last meaning Theinval doesn't get a nice clean jump and doesn't get away from the fence as well - he then stays on well under pressure and is closing, all be it slowly, at the line.
Report Can't Catch Me March 2, 2018 3:01 PM GMT
I backed Theinval last year too too...if you think he's getting the maximum out of the horse off the final bend, then we can agree to disagree uncle! Sits motionless for too long and even when he asks him he just appears weak as p1ss to my eyes. Compare how Pup rides the winner from the same point. Swap those two jocks and you may well have changed the result imo
Report Fistfulofdollars March 2, 2018 4:29 PM GMT
Agreed CantCMe. My eyes were on the second at the time as I had backed Gardefort at 35s downwards to rescue the day! There maybe some better handicapped in a couple of weeks but Theinval has the form in the book at the track and I'm guessing will be as straight as he has been all season...hopefully with a more enterprising ride..
Report unclepuncle March 2, 2018 5:22 PM GMT
I doubt McGrath would ever get ‘the maximum’ out of any horse but he seems to ride this one most of the time so not sure if Nico will get the gig this year.
Has a cracking chance either way and 33/1 is a great bet.
Report brendrew March 3, 2018 10:32 AM GMT
i think the horse is soft.

will young has more chance of getting a fathers day card.
Report Fistfulofdollars March 3, 2018 10:40 AM GMT
Hope you're not right brendew!Surprised
Report unclepuncle March 12, 2018 5:49 PM GMT
Well after clearly exaggerating how soft it might be I’ve had £200 on Le Prezien at 25/1 nrnb with a view to lay off.
With the going sure to be very soft he should be aimed here imo and he was 7/2f last year.
Report Fistfulofdollars March 12, 2018 6:10 PM GMT
GL unclep. Nicholls has three in brown advisory for JP alone so can see him re-routing one at least. I've done Bouvreuil who won't want it v wet.
Report unclepuncle March 12, 2018 6:14 PM GMT
Well MWTT is now going for the Plate (assuming he makes the cut) and wouk£ surely be the McManus No.1 so I assumed that might make the Grand Annual more likely for Le Prezien. He is also in the Ryanair but surely has no chance in that.
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y March 14, 2018 12:53 PM GMT
Dandridge balloted out I presume ??

Guess I will have to go and have the usual argument then if that's the case to get my money back ffs
Report unclepuncle March 16, 2018 6:26 PM GMT
BOOM- my bigegst ever single hore win.Cool
Report Shrewd_dude March 16, 2018 7:30 PM GMT
BOOM- my bigegst ever single hore win

Wish I'd spent the week doing that rather than backing horses.
Report unclepuncle March 16, 2018 7:33 PM GMT
Report conductor March 17, 2018 12:19 PM GMT
will be keeping eyes wide open for theinval at ayr Scottish grand national meeting. fingers crossed he will get his favoured goodish ground. suppose Aintree could be an option as well. feel he is very much ground dependant imo.. just saying. Wink
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