Feb 28, 2018 -- 3:50PM, Can't Catch Me wrote:
You think they can be exact about rainfall in 12 days time?!
It can never be exact in narrow regional areas but you will be surprised how far new technology can now balance out probabilities with weather forecasting- but with regards to the cheltenham going i dont think we need to be exact because of the heavy snow and sleet we know Chelt is most likely to get over the next 48/72hrs.
Even if it just rains for 5 out of the next 10 days then its SOFT ground imo - the prediction is that it will be rain on 10 days.
The Med/long range forecasts are not worth anything with regards to temperature or Wind forecasting - but the predictive data models on the chances of rain are more accurate than people would imagine especially when looking at a general outlook on low pressures across the whole of the UK.
I've checked 4 different forecasts models and between them they predicts between 4-5 days of dry weather across between 1st March - 14th March - some models are actually predicting that there will still be snow showers between the 9th-11th across cheltenham and the others like the UK Metoffice predict rain - this makes me think that they are agreed on one thing ...the low pressures.
The BBC ditched the MET Office in mid 2017 and now use MeteoGroup for good reason - They are the world's biggest forecasting company and use computer dataset predictions across 50 individual algorithmic models with regards to pressures.
How cool is this btw - http://www.meteoearth.com/#/,-99.65,42.75,2.50,4,1,1,0,0,0,time=1519863438