Cheltenham Festival
Claisse says he'd like some warm sunshine to help with grass growth.
Little chance of that for the forseeable, we've got the "beast from the east" to contend with next week...apparently
That's right, it's up under specials. "Cheltenham Official Going".
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/horse-racing/market/1.140724874
Soft , Good to Soft in Places is my prediction.
Feb 28, 2018 -- 9:50PM, Can't Catch Me wrote:
You think they can be exact about rainfall in 12 days time?!
It can never be exact in narrow regional areas but you will be surprised how far new technology can now balance out probabilities with weather forecasting- but with regards to the cheltenham going i dont think we need to be exact because of the heavy snow and sleet we know Chelt is most likely to get over the next 48/72hrs.
Even if it just rains for 5 out of the next 10 days then its SOFT ground imo - the prediction is that it will be rain on 10 days.
The Med/long range forecasts are not worth anything with regards to temperature or Wind forecasting - but the predictive data models on the chances of rain are more accurate than people would imagine especially when looking at a general outlook on low pressures across the whole of the UK.
I've checked 4 different forecasts models and between them they predicts between 4-5 days of dry weather across between 1st March - 14th March - some models are actually predicting that there will still be snow showers between the 9th-11th across cheltenham and the others like the UK Metoffice predict rain - this makes me think that they are agreed on one thing ...the low pressures.
The BBC ditched the MET Office in mid 2017 and now use MeteoGroup for good reason - They are the world's biggest forecasting company and use computer dataset predictions across 50 individual algorithmic models with regards to pressures.
How cool is this btw - http://www.meteoearth.com/#/,-99.65,42.75,2.50,4,1,1,0,0,0,time=1519863438
That was the message yesterday from clerk of the course Simon Claisse, who also estimated there may be more than 200 tons of snow to remove manually from the course.
Speaking just before 1pm, Claisse provided an update on the ground, which had been left covered by snow after the storms that have battered Britain in recent days. He said: “The sun tried to poke through this morning, but it’s become very grey and murky now. The thaw is just beginning to start and the temperatures are just a couple of degrees above freezing.
“It could possibly get a bit milder this weekend and then into next week. I think the ground will be soft when the snow melts, but it’s hard to tell at the moment while it’s still thawing. We think the snow will have amounted to about 12mm and the forecast is showing it could be 15mm of rain by next Sunday.”
Asked if that meant ‘heavy’ would enter the official going description before the meeting, Claisse – whose groundstaff will be swelled by around 40 to 50 extra workers to help move the snow next to the fences and hurdles – replied: “It’s possible, yes.”
Even with that strength in numbers the shovel-wielders may have their work cut out, with Claisse saying: “We think there could be 200-plus tons plus of snow to shift manually, where it has drifted up against the fences.”
Where those fences are on the cross-country course those drifts are between four and six feet deep in places, with Claisse observing: “Not only is that slower to thaw, but you’re depositing a lot of the precipitation in one place.”
Snow gone off the roads and the colour green was back in the description of my surroundings.. Relief.
Relief too for Simon Claisse (Clerk of the course at Cheltenham) who was over for supper last night.
Simon and his team had just dug the last fence clear of snow. Every fence on the course, including the cross country fences, had their snow covering removed by shovel and barrow. That stops false ground around the fences from melting snow, and you might well ask why no tractor help.. tractor tyre marks on the grass.
Simon was happy that the course had taken the weather well and was even amazed to see some grass growth.. The ground is currently described as soft and good to soft in places and with not a huge amount of rain forecasted the likely hood is that the ground on the first day will be good to soft and after 4 days, good… So be warned don’t go mad backing heavy ground horses.
