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Cheltenham Festival
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We've got five horses now who are 'generally' odds on or evens at best. I say generally because there are one or two random bookies who may be evens or slightly odds against, but the general market of high street bookies and big online players are odds on. Five, at this stage of the season seems a lot to me, although that's just a hunch, no idea if we normally have this many at this stage.
I suppose my question is would you take these on or back them?
FOOTPAD - I'd take him on at the prices. I think this race has good strength in depth at the top of the market, and whilst Footpad has been really impressive, I don't think it'd be the biggest shock in the world if he got beat. Looks a completely different horse over fences, but beaten twice at the Festival now over hurdles. Thoroughly deserves to be favourite, but he's far from over the line imo. I'm taking him on with Saint Calvados.
BEVEUR D'AIR - Impossible to oppose but I can't take 1/2. He hasn't really had a race since last year's Champion Hurdle, but nothing at all has come out of the woodwork to take him from last year's novices and although Faugheen is in the line up now, he looks a shadow of his former self. Barring an injury or something happening in running, it'd be the shock of the festival if he didn't win - I'll be sitting back and watching with no bet in this race.
APPLES JADE - Probably my banker of the meeting, and whilst I wouldn't back her in a single at 4/6 (not my style) she'll be the centre of most of my multiples. Reigning champion and last year's race was much stronger than this years, and she has improved again. By far the best of her sex, this is her optimum trip, perfect prep and has had Supasundae behind twice this year.
SAMCRO - Not a race I've focussed on too much, but similar to Beveur D'air, his presence makes this a no bet race for me. I've missed all the fancy prices (I've been taken in with hype horses in the past before they've run so stayed clear this time), so those on at a nice price, well done, but I can't back him now at evens and 4/5. I'll watch, hope he wins well, but makes the race a non starter betting wise for me. I can't really find anything to take him on with, especially if Next Destination goes for the longer race, so he maybe I should be backing him big, but most likely (like Apples Jade) to be in the odd multiple.
ALTIOR - Clearly looks like a two horse race between himself and Min, it'd be a huge shock if one of those two didn't win. Altior clearly back to his best after yesterday, but as others have eluded to, there is the worry of the bounce factor, plus his underwhelming Arkle performance sticks in my mind. He is quite rightly favourite, but I'll probably take him on with Min at the prices, even though, again, I've missed the 'ew banker' prices of around 4/1. Min's had his own injury problems but seems to be over them now, and back to his best last time out. The fact that Altior beat Min in the Supreme doesn't play on my mind too much, a lot of water under the bridge since then.
So overall, I'll be taking Footpad and Altior on, will make Apples Jade my banker in most multiples and will sit back and hopefully watch Samcro hose up in the Ballymore and see if Beveur D'air can make it back to back Champion Hurdles.
I suppose my question is would you take these on or back them?
FOOTPAD - I'd take him on at the prices. I think this race has good strength in depth at the top of the market, and whilst Footpad has been really impressive, I don't think it'd be the biggest shock in the world if he got beat. Looks a completely different horse over fences, but beaten twice at the Festival now over hurdles. Thoroughly deserves to be favourite, but he's far from over the line imo. I'm taking him on with Saint Calvados.
BEVEUR D'AIR - Impossible to oppose but I can't take 1/2. He hasn't really had a race since last year's Champion Hurdle, but nothing at all has come out of the woodwork to take him from last year's novices and although Faugheen is in the line up now, he looks a shadow of his former self. Barring an injury or something happening in running, it'd be the shock of the festival if he didn't win - I'll be sitting back and watching with no bet in this race.
APPLES JADE - Probably my banker of the meeting, and whilst I wouldn't back her in a single at 4/6 (not my style) she'll be the centre of most of my multiples. Reigning champion and last year's race was much stronger than this years, and she has improved again. By far the best of her sex, this is her optimum trip, perfect prep and has had Supasundae behind twice this year.
SAMCRO - Not a race I've focussed on too much, but similar to Beveur D'air, his presence makes this a no bet race for me. I've missed all the fancy prices (I've been taken in with hype horses in the past before they've run so stayed clear this time), so those on at a nice price, well done, but I can't back him now at evens and 4/5. I'll watch, hope he wins well, but makes the race a non starter betting wise for me. I can't really find anything to take him on with, especially if Next Destination goes for the longer race, so he maybe I should be backing him big, but most likely (like Apples Jade) to be in the odd multiple.
ALTIOR - Clearly looks like a two horse race between himself and Min, it'd be a huge shock if one of those two didn't win. Altior clearly back to his best after yesterday, but as others have eluded to, there is the worry of the bounce factor, plus his underwhelming Arkle performance sticks in my mind. He is quite rightly favourite, but I'll probably take him on with Min at the prices, even though, again, I've missed the 'ew banker' prices of around 4/1. Min's had his own injury problems but seems to be over them now, and back to his best last time out. The fact that Altior beat Min in the Supreme doesn't play on my mind too much, a lot of water under the bridge since then.
So overall, I'll be taking Footpad and Altior on, will make Apples Jade my banker in most multiples and will sit back and hopefully watch Samcro hose up in the Ballymore and see if Beveur D'air can make it back to back Champion Hurdles.
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RUBY will do your money FACT
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You would usually expect a couple of the shorties to get turned over, but it's not blindingly obvious who this year.
For me bankers are Apples, Buveur D'air and after yesterday Altior. I'm taking on Footpad, who of the above is probably the weakest odds on, but that's not to say I'm in any way confident he will get beat, just take-onable. The problem with the others is who will beat them. I suppose the hype may turn to dust around Samcro on the day, or Faugheen returned to Cheltenham suddenly takes off again. The other two though, the mares division is as uncompetitive as ever and unless Douvan returns totally as before I can't see Altior getting beaten even by Min. |
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Apples Jade and Samcro are bankers in my book
BD not because of the Faugheen factor(unlikely I know) or dare I say it Yorkhill!!! tin hat deployed Altior not because of the Douvan factor because if he turns up and at his best simply wins (unlikely I know), plus maybe, Min does present a decent level of opposition, and dare I say it, Yorkhill!! tin hat deployed...again!!! Footpad not because PM definitely presents a decent level of opposition, as does Saint Calvados...if they have to swim the 2 miles |
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Douvan 99% looks like he's not going to run though doesn't it
 shame, both BD and Altior could do with real quality opposition against them. |
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Of all the shorties eg BD, AJ, Altior, Samcro, Footpad and Getabird (getting progressively shorter and rightly so if Samcro is absent) the one that could be surprised the most is BD - if the real Faugheen and/or Yorkhill turn-up (very big if). And in order of as certainty goes I'd have Samcro, Altior, Footpad, AJ, BD and Getabird.
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imp,
We're going to get annihilated in the morning for bringing Yorkhill up  |
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Got to be some serious bias against BD,or pocket talk,to say BD is not a banker on the strength of yorkhills season.
To me the shorties look really strong,only doubt for me would always be a novice,but this years one does look rather different!! Do the bet though.you can bet one at least will get beat!! It always happens. |
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Opinions, opinions, opinions, that's what horse racing is all about. Until BD beats something still in its ascendancy eg Samcro/Getabird my opinion of him will remain.
I was hoping Defi Du Seuil could sock-it-up to him but been disappointing to say the least, and I hope Yorkhill could take up the baton (if sound); the presence of Yorkhill in exchange for 1/2 the present field will be a more credible opposition than without. Maybe Ruby could do the oracle, otherwise another easy race for BD... |
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Rule #1 : Just because something is a short price doesn't make it poor value - offer me 11/10 about 'heads' on a coin toss and I'll bet with you all day long.
Rule #2 : There is no obligation to bet in EVERY race, in fact it can be quite good for the soul to watch a race for the pure sporting spectacle, without a financial interest. Rule #3 : Always bet on the basis of YOUR judgement of a horse's ability/form/fitness etc. Following hype leads to the poor house in the long run. FOOTPAD : Deserves to be favourite but not this short and Saint Calvados should be a 4/1 shot tops imo (even shorter if it turns up soft) so he's the bet for me. BUVEUR D'AIR : Obvious chance, a watching race for me. Would love to see MTOY get his head in front. APPLE'S JADE : Impossible to oppose. Arguably a fair price even at 4/6 but no bet for me in this. SAMCRO : Some substance to his form but price based a lot on hype. Not for me. Next Destination needs to run in this as this is his trip - he'd be a solid e/w bet if he does. There are also a few dark un's that are interesting, especially Vinndication. ALTIOR : Not the sort of prep that would encourage an odds on bet from me. Watching race. A couple of other shortish ones look worth opposing to me : Getabird (hype) and Apple's Shakira (form over-rated). Kalashnikov and We Have A Dream instead for me. Good luck everyone. |
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Like I said........
Got to be some serious bias against BD,or pocket talk,to say BD is not a banker on the strength of yorkhills season. |
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I do not bet in every race - I'm very selective and only do Group/Grade races but no handicap except big ones eg Schweppes, Tolworth with a good success record, now and again. No interest in all-weather whatsoever unless 'laying' to gather info and stats for a bit of time-killing and/or fun. My last horse bet was Kalashnikov on predicament (3 shoes), name and success last renewal in single, trebles and accas with Altior, Samcro and Footpad only for £2 each (fun bets).
Have Faugheen in the CH post his triumphant return at 15/8 doubles with Samcro, but have backed Yorkhill at big prices (here) for a small stake, and any race; just cannot have BD (not held in high esteem by me) because I believe he's susceptible to a Yorkhill gatecrash; have AJ in the Mares and Stayers prior to her victory over the ill-fated Nichols Canyon; MB, SJ, OD and NR (after the Denman) running for free (very lucky) in the Gold Cup similarly Getabird at 5/1 and (7/2 (nrnb). As I said many times before horse racing is a game only, and mainly opinion based; backing winners is not scientific more luck and (form), all things being equal thus do not subscribe and/or kowtow to so-call racing junos/experts feeding from bookies' troughs expounding their wares on racing media. Never forget one is only as good as one's latest win, and no more. And, one is only kidding oneself if aftertiming - it does not improve one's wealth if so. |
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Why all the talk of no-hoper Yorkhill? Something obviously amiss there. You should really be putting up My Tent Or Yours and The New One as each-way alternatives, imo
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Like I said......
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How many runners do you reckon will actually be going to post, Bud?
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I believe there were comparable arguments about Yorkhill prior to his victory in the JLT last Festival eg propensity to jump left, which race, etc, and allowed to start at 6/4 (much bigger only days earlier/superior formlines to any) even in the absence of Buveur D'air, the long time 2nd fav. And he excelled in the race.
This season Yorkhill has been repeatedly messed about - intentionally or not I'm not sure - but messed about he was eg running in a 3m chase 1st outing, then 2m chase. Assuming he is sound and Festival bound he'd be going to either the Ryanair or the Champion Hurdle, nowhere else. And, no doubt Ruby will have a say which. |
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You can add Laurina in the Mares Novice Hurdle to the list of "shorties" as she's currently hovering around the even money mark. Like the other "shorties" she looks a worthy favourite.
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Ignore it Bud, as usual it’s pocket talk from him.
How anyone can think a novice chaser yet to face two very credible rivals and is priced at around even money, has more chance than the reigning wide margin champion hurdler who has won every race since with his c0ck out and is generally 1/2 - I don’t know? “But he finished third in a race two years ago, so must be rubbish” *stamps foot I’m not saying the one will win and the other won’t, I’ve actually backed against both and will probably lay them on the day if they go crazy short, but one appears bomb-proof and the other has questions to answer. I thought Altior looked mustard on Saturday and find it very hard to see him beat; him, BD and Apples Jade are the ones with the fewest questions to answer. |
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Yes Des, I know I should ignore it, but just annoys me when people try and knock a champion that won his championship race impressively, and had done nowt wrong since, winning impressively every time.
But pocket talk can encourage that sort of comment I guess. Woodman Not going to be many I imagine, probably somewhere between 6 and 10. Guess it really depends how many connections will try to grab some prize money. |
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Doesn't look like The New One will go now, 140.0 Daq. Neither My Tent Or Yours, 52.0?
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Well, that's according to Oddschecker anyway. Wouldn't be the first time they've messed up!
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no big move on here
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budd,
Let's try and clear the BD issue up, I don't think anyone is knocking the horse per se, TO CONFIRM, BD IS A GOOD HORSE. That's it though, it is very fair to question if he's worth any higher elevation because he's not running against Grade 1 horses. I for one believe he's lucky not to be around in a stronger era as to me he doesn't look top drawer, he's good but that's it. There are people who would still question Istabraq (not me) on much the same issue, and if it's good enough for that great horse then it most certainly is good enough for Buveir D'air. BD is a good horse but is unquestionably around at a time when the premier 2 mile hurdling division is absolutely on its knees. Imagine if BD missed the race, it would still be won by something, would people come on here then and criticize others for claiming that the likes of John Constable isn't a decent CH winner!!!, no, of course not because it would be a valid point. Now BD is higher up the food chain than him but the principle is much the same |
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Well a lot rave about Faugheen,yet he posted the same time as BD when he won his CH.
Both ridden to the line.Similar ground. My opinion watching both horses is that they are both perfect CH horses,as was Istabraq. None of these 3 have faced great opposition in their respective Churdles. When i see a horse jump,travel and finish off Churdles as these have,i have no problem saying they are darn good ones. I aint watching the opposition if they are getting beat easily.Just the one that is clearly very good. |
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Basically the only way anyone can say anything against BD being a very good Champion,is have a pop at his opposition.
All that does is highlight the horses he is running against as not being that great,but it cannot prove BD is not better than just a good horse.Not unless he is struggling to beat them. He never struggled in his Churdle and has not struggled in any other of his 2m hurdle races at senior level. |
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It is true that it's hard to guage just how good he is because as he's running against horses that aren't up to the true grade you have to go on the perception you get from seeing him during his races.
For me he doesn't possess that wow factor that would suggest that although he's beating up on lesser horses you could see there is a lot more layers there should he'd need them, I don't get that feel from him. It may be because he does not possess that turn of foot that Faugheen had so to the eye it doesn't excite you as much. Perhaps if he was up against a top class 2 miler he'd show just what he could do, I wouldn't rule it out, but I wouldn't bank on it myself. Heavens sake, it is a general perception afterall, there's a "mere" novice about at the moment that plenty would make fav. in the CH itself should it ran in it....and that really shouldn't be the case if we're dealing with an established and well regarded reigning champion. |
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I think all your your last comments highlight is how much people go overboard about some horses,although of course he could already be simply a better horse than BD is,for all we know.But its all just talk as the horse aint done anything to give anyone substance in saying he would be fav in the CH.
You are correct in saying its hard to gauge just how good he is,and because of that i accept i may be overrating him,but at the same time,because of that, its also possible people could underrate him. Like you Duffy i am going on the perception i get from seeing him, and basically i have a different view. To me he does have a turn of foot,and he showed it in his CHurdle,he oozes class in my eyes. Maybe something will happen at some time to prove conclusively which of us was right to say what we are saying now. |
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I think he's a cracking little horse, Beveur D'air; I'd certainly back him over Altior if for some reason Altior ever ended up in the Champion Hurdle....I know he won't btw, just hypothetically. He's improved so much since his Supreme run, I personally think he's the best 2 mile hurdle Britain has produced in 10 years, easily...in a division recently dominated by the Irish.
In the context of this years festival, I think he fully justifies his current really short price, I just don't back at those prices. I personally think anyone who would back Samcro over Beveur D'air in a 2m hurdle this year is bonkers, and even without his dodgy season this year, I don't think Yorkhill would get near him either. |
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Ps: Just for the 10 year reference above, my first Cheltenham was 2007 (not long ago I know), and since then I haven't seen a better 2m hurdler in Britain than him.
Binocular, Rock on Ruby, Punjabi, Peddlers, Katchit etc would all lose to him imo and we know MTOY and TNO already have. Ones like Spirit Son and Darlan may have, but unfortunately we'd never know. |
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It is refreshing to see posters are prepared to put their head above the parapet or nailed their colours to the mast about their opinions. But I'd side with Yorkhill and/or Samcro should either run in the Champion Hurdle any time, any day, why? I value and appreciate the quality of the winner more than the winner of a walkover achieved against vastly inferior oppositions.
But as I've said many times before,...it is just me and my opinions which horse racing is all about, nothing personal. |
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I value and appreciate the quality of the winner more than the winner of a walkover achieved against vastly inferior oppositions.
what the fack has Yorkhill ever beaten over hurdles to suggest it would win a Champion Hurdle ?? |
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Chief
I have just chucked a tenner on all the shorties,for a bit of fun Altior,Buveur Dair,Apples Jade,Samcro,Footpad,Lauluna Just over 35/1 Bit daft doing it now i suppose,but ive never done an antepost acca with six horses. |
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Yorkhill won the Tolworth easily; he went 3l clear between the 2nd and last hurdle in the Neptune beating Yanworth who'd won every hurdle race prior, and who also started 2/1 fav in the Champion Hurdle which BD (5/1) won the following year.
I think one could safely deduce Yorkhill would be a serious CH candidate if Yanworth started fav in that race. |
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What has Yanworth's price got to do with anything? He ran a poor race and clearly isn't ever going to go close in a CH. Form is all that matters,not prices that now look like they were incorrect.
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Yanworth was stuffed in last years Champion Hurdle, so you're making a comment like I reposted yet then using a horse Buveur D'air demolished by 13 odd lengths in last years champion as he liked as a reason that Yorkhill could win a Champion as he beat the same horse in the Neptune (by far less).
The tolworth hurdle, absolutely pmsl. O O Seven, Agrapart, Welsh Shadow and Cyrius Moriviere. What was it you said about winning walkovers against vastly inferior opposition ?? Show some consistency ffs. And who cares what prices they went off for last years Champion? Buveur D'air had been chasing until he ran in the Contenders Hurdle hence not having shown his hand over hurdles. |
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Yorkhill doesn't have a single piece of worthwhile form over 2m. Any 2m wins were against Stayers.
He would be absolutely run off his feat in a Champion imo, just like he was against Min last time. |
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I understand BD had been chasing until he ran in the Contenders Hurdle. I also understand Yanworth was disappointing in the Champion Hurdle (CH) which BD won, but he still started at a shorter price and fav against BD which clearly indicated his form and chance.
By the way, I was only using using Yanworth to cement the potential and chance of Yorkhill should he run in this Festival the CH, all being well, whether he wins or not is another matter; he was also a short price contender for last year's CH which Mullins chickened out despite the absence of Faugheen. Assuming he runs, he'll be my selection with/out BD and/or Faugheen. |
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Blah,blah,blah - I’ve backed Yorkhill at monster odds and am hoping some sucker will follow me in and so I can trade out. A two seasons ago Tolworth, ffs
BD is bang up to scratch as a Champion Hurdle winner, there’s plenty already mentioned who did little before and nothing afterwards to be worthy of the name - this fella has gone about proving he’s the best since and in all likelihood will again next month. Not every CH has the competition of the Hardy, Harchi and Inca years - most don’t. I reckon he’s as good as top notch Faugheen or Annie Power and significantly better than the sublimity, Katchit and Punjabi’s of this world. |
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Going back to the original question, I'd be least keen to oppose Apple's Jade and Buveur D'Air - both basically been asked to repeat what they did last year and both with form since which suggests they may have improved - Buveur D'Air has the advantage of a probable small field in opposition which arguably looks no better than last year's renewal at this stage whereas Apple's Jade will probably have plenty of opponents but they look like being weaker than last year overall.
Next would be Altior - he looks different class but there are one or two potential opponents who could give him a race at their best plus his performance in last year's Arkle was one of the least impressive in his portfolio (harsh admittedly given the standards he sets). Samcro looks the real deal, I'd be far less keen to lay him than most of the other novice shorties in recent years but he's got to deal with the travelling and the occasion which will both be new to him and he's got to handle the track. There are currently about 3 times as many entries in his likely race as in the races any of the other shorties will contest (plenty of 'em are probably no good but there will likely be one or two massive improvers also). Footpad just looks like he's going to be in a competitive race. Also worth noting that 2 of the 5 races these shorties are likely to contest were won by horses who started at double figure odds last year. |
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Good luck with that Budd, everyone should get on the 'forum shortie plunge'
Hard to disagree with any of that Rease. I'd never lay Samcro, but I'm not getting too carried away at the minute - I'm reserving judgement until 2 mins after the Ballymore before I hail him the second coming. This year is a bit weird for me because haven't got involved in antepost at all (speculative bet on Bacardys for the Stayers a few months ago but that's it), and at this point I'd normally be having some juicy prices about those listed above. I suppose when you haven't backed them at big odds you evaluate their chances a lot more critically and look for holes that you normally wouldn't because its a much bigger risk backing them at their current odds. Wish I did have the nice prices as usual, but I know I'd probably have chucked away loads on non runners by now, so can't have it both ways. |