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Plans are in place to give Buveur D'Air, who registered back-to-back victories in the Contenders Hurdle at Sandown on Saturday, a racecourse gallop ahead of the defence of his title at Prestbury Park on March 13.
Henderson said: "I could have done with a little bit of a harder race really. It would have been better to push him out instead of pulling him up, but it was fine and exactly what we wanted and I'm not complaining. "He is a horse that needs plenty of work. Barry (Geraghty) said he was still taking blows. He will go to a racecourse for a gallop, but he won't go to Newbury this weekend. I wouldn't mind going somewhere on grass rather than on the all weather because he loves that soft ground. "If there was somewhere I could gallop around grass in two weeks time, I would like to do that. He will go to a racecourse for a gallop, there is no doubt about that. "Whereas I could go to Cheltenham with Altior or Might Bite without a run, I couldn't go there without him having a run. He hasn't had a race as such this season and that is the worry. He is a brute and you have to fire work into him. You have got to really be on top of him." Kempton in 2 weeks time please Nicky, I will be there and would be a nice bonus to see him. |
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Declare Samcro and lets have a proper race at Cheltenham.
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Send him up to the Morebattle Hurdle, he's done that before with CH hopes.
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send him to Chelmsford for a 1m2f handicap that's what we all want to see!!
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On a Tuesday night at 21:15?!
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sounds perfect!!!
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To knock Buveur Dair is churlish in the extreme.
He struck me as a very high class horse prior to his 3rd in the Supreme (when he was still very inexperienced at that point and stormed home up the hill after fluffing his lines 2 out). I think he has improved again since then and it's not his fault nobody can serve it up to him. Admittedly, it would be nice to see a realistic challenger; but we are looking at it from a punting perspective as his odds are unbackable - but there is nothing else realistically to live with him. History will show, like Istabraq etc, he was simply too good and fondly remembered by this current generation of race fans. |
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Very well put I would say.
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Only 4ish horses less than 40's on here, quite possibly one or two of those won't run.
Leaves BD, F & MTOY to be first 3, what else realistically? Perhaps 8 or 9 runners tops. |
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Defi might make a miraculous recovery and give JP the first three.
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Has Elliott confirmed Apples Jade is nailed for the Mares? See there’s an entry for this (as well as Stayers) & wondering whether they might just give it a crack given the field this year?
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Elliott has confirmed mares. A winner at Cheltenham is what he looks out for
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O'Leary said that he has no interest in trying to win the stayers with her.
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I don't think Gigginstown will want to finish placed in this race when they have a far more realistic chance of victory elsewhere.....whether that be Apples or Samcro!!
This race is pretty straightforward really,the only ? to me is whether Faugheen..... or Melon maybe? can improve on what we have seen last two races. If not it is very straightforward. |
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Thanks gents. When you look at the entries for how this race will pan out it could end up being a field of 8-9 runners on the day. The more I think about it, I could end up having the same biggest bet I had at last year's Festival in MTOY to be placed at around 3/1. That to me is more value than backing a 4/6 fav as one of the bankers of the meeting. Despite the fact he's an 11 year old now, with this year's renewal being the poorest one I can remember, I simply can't see him out of the frame... if you look at the market for this race: Buveur D'Air (4/9) should win easily, behind him Faugheen (6/1) needs to find about a stone on his last run to win (possible although unlikely), MTOY (12/1), Yorkhill (NR surely), Melon (20/1) - held by Faugheen and the others ahead of him in market, Min (NR), Apples Jade (NR as ppl have confirmed on here!), The New One (NR), then you're at the Ch'Tibello/Mick Jazz's of the hurdling scene who imo are a defined league below. The only other possibility I could see of an upset to MTOY not being placed is Defi Du Seuil bouncing back and showing some of his promise last season and making the frame. It could even be a McManus 1,2,3 come to think of it. If it ends up 8/9 runners then MTOY in the first 3 and indeed the market w/o Buveur at around 5/1 currently makes a lot of appeal. Any other year I'd be against backing an 11 year old in this, but this isn't any other year. I can't imagine the prices on the day once all of the NRs have pulled out will be 12/1 on him.
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MTOY 13/2 without the fav on B365 if you fancy a 5th festival second place.
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Personally I wouldn't be looking at the place market at this time, too many inponderables, you've got one spot taken by the fav. to start with, Defi could get a place on better ground, who knows, Yorkhill could turn up here and do absolutely anything!!, melon easily has a place run in him, Plus in MTOY'S, you are going to be backing a horse that throretically is going to be actually racing to win, which may cost him late on.
I'd much rather in these instances support something where I think connections are pragmatically going to keep their horse out of the heat and try and pick up a place running past horses that have run their race. |
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If he belonged to me, I would ride MTOY for second unless Buveur had already fallen.
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the w/o fave market sounds like it might be popular nearer the day.
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think ive overdone it on chtibelo so gonna cash some out :-(
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With lots likely to be dropping out, how many runners go to post do we reckon?
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Ok lets have ago.....
BD Faugheen Tent Melon Defi Chitibello Mick Jazz John Constable Think they are likely runners,not so sure about any others. |
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just took 14-1 0n native river altior double boost.
regret it already lol. |
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With the benefit of hindsight I bet they went to Cheltenham with Faugheen fresh in the hope he produced his first run of the season. The desperation to see him on the track again to try and find out what they had may well have scuppered them.
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A few out after yesterday.
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About to commit the ultimate faux pas in playing Willie Mullins bingo. However Im failing to see how Min 12-1 isn't a phenomenal bet to nothing. 99% chance you will get your cash back in 4 weeks time. But if the reports are to be believed with how well Douvan is doing, it would hardly be surprising to see Ricci/Mullins duck clashing Min and Douvan together in the QM. Un De Sceaux wont move from the Ryan Air. That leaves either the Gold Cup or Champion Hurdle with either Min or Douvan, which ever doesn't run in the QM.
I seem to remember Min beating Buever D'air in that Supreme too. Like I say, I fully expect to get my 2 pence back in 4 weeks time. But come that Tuesday Morning with Ruby chalked up, he certainly isn't 12-1. I've gladly just taken some of the 100.00s on here for the Champion also. Not vastly different to punting Vautour for the RyanAir a few years ago when were lead to believe that the Gold Cup was the aim. NRNB usually see's prices cut ridiculously, however IMO 12-1 is more than fair enough to carry the burden of my money for a month. |
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No idea what the plan is now with Douvan, as he is now a non runner tomorrow.
I would imagine that leaves Min as the number one 2 mile chaser though. But like you say, you get your money back anyway. |
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Ricci has Faugheen in the CH so it wouldn't make any sense to take him on in order to avoid Douvan. UDS has a different owner so I'd expect either Min or Douvan to run in the Ryanair.
My guess is that this will be Douvan as it would be a huge ask to take on Altior not having run for a year. |
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It depends if they think they're getting him hard fit at home and ready to run at 100%. If they are satisfied they've ticked those boxes then it isn't such a stretch because he's a better horse than Altior.
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Douvan, a better horse than Altior? I wouldn't be confident about that as both had beaten Foxton Norton comprehensively over 2m. However, should Douvan turn up at Cheltenham and do battle with Altior my money will be on Altior given the issues concerning Douvan this season; I'd not back Douvan in the Ryanair either.
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"If" Douvan comes back the same horse as he was at his best, which is a big ask, he is unquestionably better than Altior IMO.
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Imo its hard to say for sure which is the better of the two if both at their best.
I suspect we will never know. |
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Altior beat two good horses in the Supreme and one of them is the present Champion Hurdle winner. On the other hand Douvan beat Shaneshill who clearly is not a 2 miler; he also beat Sizing John who again is not a 2 miler either. Thus, I do have reservation that Douvan is the better of the two 2 milers even on his best form.
Let's hope Douvan makes it and do battle with Altior. |
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A fully fit Douvan v Altior is a question I've pondered. I don't see how you can be particularly confident either way. They've beaten everything with ease when fully fit.
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Although Douvan wins aesthetically.
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Douvan is now nine and i would think he has already peaked,if thats the case then we will never know cos they have not raced against each other. The formbook is inconclusive.
Of course were they to meet and Douvan won,then we would know,but that imo is unlikely. If Altior won,then the ? would arise about Douvan being at his best. |
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You’ve got to hand it to Imp, he’s consistent in his use of the SNH as a guide to how good a horse is.
We are now going back 3 years to a novice hurdle, to judge how good multiple G1 winning chaser Douvan is! I wonder how he squares these two arguments: BD is gash as Altior beat him in a Supreme V Altior is better than Douvan as he beat BD - the ‘reigning champion hurdler’ no less - in a Supreme? The gift that keeps giving....... |
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He's a f'cking idiot Des, he's bloody ruined this forum. He's clearly a troll, doesn't understand a thing about the game, but has a view on everything. Constantly caught out for talking boolsh1t about his bets as well.
To top it off, he uses the line "racing is a game of opinions". Anyone who uses "is a game of opinions" for any topic is guaranteed to be a f'cking cretin. |
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Let's hope Douvan gets to the festival, setting aside what "actually" happens in the race for a moment, the build up would get that much needed shot in the arm wouldn't it?
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Absolutely Duffy, although regardless of how the market sees the field, I don’t have too much trouble getting excited about the best 2m chase of the season.
And it’s important to remember that neither Altior nor Douvan has won a QMCC yet and both have had problems. So before we start eulogising them too much, lets have one of them win the actual race. |