2018 - Handicaps

Hey there BF.

I profoundly distrust CP after last year. I was hoping he'd be a NR last year after his fall in the Adonis as I had backed NRNB. Sadly it was not to be and he ran in the Triumph. Could be on a good mark though.

Another I have added is Forza Milan for the Pertemps. Always wary of a Jonjo plot horse and it wouldn't surprise me to see it run in Feb for a penalty and then hose up! Its form is reasonable as well.

Should've mentioned that at 25 with BillyHills concession (don't see what else it could run in), I'm reasonably happy that I'd get my money back if it doesn't get an entry.

I too distrusted the horse having backed CP a few times last year (including at Cheltenham), however my faith in the horse was restored when he ran a gallant second in a good race on seasonal reappearance. His most recent run was just to keep him ticking over and his handicap mark down before whichever big handicap they decide to run him in.

That Forza Milan looks like a decent prospect, certainly one of those "well that's no big surprise" horses should it win at Cheltenham!

Misterton in the County Hurdle

Bluebird, agreed on Misterton. Kept away from winter ground and workable handicap mark.

I'm thinking the same bluebird

:-)

good shout with misterton chaps

I will be backing HELLS KITCHEN wherever it turns up.  I think it will be the close brothers handicap race  (I did put this up on another thread before it won this season.)

Hells Kitchen been given 145; that handy for the 0-145 race!!

Misterton ran well in the Greatwood despite the handicap of being ridden from the front with Tom Scudamore doing the steering. He appears well handicapped but it's rare that front runners win handicap hurdles at the Festival and if he needs to lead to be seen at his best then Aintree or Ayr would probably be better suited to that running style.

Act of Valour has been given a mark of 136 for the Fred Winter. If he rocks up here, which I assume he will, he surely must have a great chance.

He should come on leaps and bounds for the better ground and being rated 97 on the flat gives him a touch of class. He beat 2 subsequent winners at Newcastle back before Christmas, notably Look My Way who has since come out and bolted up in and egg and spoon race at Ludlow before finishing second to Apples Shakira on Trials day. Look my Way has oddly been made favourite by a couple of firms at around 14-1 off of a mark of 135. Given he has the beating of him and is only rated a 1lb superior at around 20-1, he surely must be a nice angle into the race.

Since his victory at Newcastle, he has since ran behind We Have A Dream, a leading Triumph hope twice. Once on ground much to slow for his liking up at Mussleborough and the other time at Doncaster where he ran flat with the Stewards Report below:

Following the race, A. P. Heskin reported that ACT OF VALOUR, placed sixth, ran flat and the Veterinary Officer reported that a post-race examination of the gelding during routine testing failed to reveal any abnormalities.


With Paul Nicholls incredible record in the race it wouldn't surprise me to think he has been laid out for this since his win at Newcastle. He has the beating of the favourite, a nice official rating and will likely see improvement from the better ground. 20-1 to me looks to be a knocking bet each way in this.

BON PAPA, in the Close brothers race, A total g1t of a horse who will need some performance from the jockey to coax him home, but a horse that IMO possesses a stack of ability and I'm sure is better than the 139 he is currently rated.

He travels like a dream through his races and was the last horse off the bridal in the Neptune last year before typically sticking his head in the air. In the Flogas the other day, whilst most were concentrating on Monalee and co, bon papa was hacking in behind and was just beginning to make ground on the snaff when he made a blunder that put paid to him.

I wouldn't be surprised to see some form of headgear on him wherever he turns up next, he's awkward but very classy I think.

He certainly does not want to be going anything more than 2 and a half miles so the novice handicap will be perfect where he'll get in nicely, you'll get your money's worth as he'll travel best, the jockey will earn his money at the business end...why did Carberry retire??

A Mcmanus special I think.

Year after year this particular thread degenerates into a "spot the JP McManus plot horse" guessing game and a little piece of me dies with each successive post. No idea why people are still so fixated on JP McManus in 2018.

Here are a few horses that have nothing whatsoever to do with JP McManus which I hope will run well in various Festival handicaps:

Close Brothers Novice Chase - Diego Du Charmil & Kalondra
Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle - Nube Negra
Pertemps Hurdle - Calett Mad & Cresswell Legend
County Hurdle - Moon Racer & Divin Bere

Whether Bon Papa is a Mcmanus horse or no is beside the point, he isn't being stopped to land a handicap, he's not a plot, he's a tricky ride that IMO is better than his rating, which is the point of the thread, my comment regarding a Mcmanus special wasn't intended as it would normally apply, perhaps I should have been clearer but thought I had pointed out how the horse is tricky, I just mean they may back it because they know they have a horse better than his mark, with no underhandedness involved.

Gold Present down to run Saturday, if it does, dont think it will run in The Ulimate

When is the handicaps revealed

I believe entries for all handicaps close on Feb 20th, weights published a week or so later.

Thanks alot

Gold Present nr today

BigF Le Breuil into 16/1 with 365. On the move.

Thanks Liberator, I never did get on at 25s, not sure now whether to take the 16 e/w or wait and hope for a bigger price on here on the day and lump on win only

16/1 not a great price to play e/w for me, would rather just back it hard win only and take it on the chin if it loses, just the question of whether to wait til the day or not take that chance incase it gets smashed in a lot more

Gold very doubtful now, may run Saturday, then to Aintree

Entries for the handicaps was yesterday and still we have no news, horse racing (like dog racing) is fkin stuck in the stone age. FFS they should be available online within the bloody hour not days later

Weights for Handicaps to be revealed next Wed 27 Feb as per Phil Smith on ATR yesterday

weights out now coral cup thomas hobson 11st 1 lb thank yuou very much

Where Irishone?

Thomas Hobson had 11-1 last year?

Sorry lads googled 2018 CHELTENHAM WEIGHTS and was put onto a website with 2018 weights which were the 2017 weights .... counts

haha :D
when will the betting on here be opened again for the handicap races?

One of the reasons for the delay in publishing handicap entries is the BHA handicapper has got to allocate marks to the cheating Irish entries.

must be tough over there
watching irish trainers come over
and win 19 of 28 festival winners last year
my heart bleeds for you

All about winners, does anyone really care where that winner is trained??

https://t.co/p6KOpYXEWY

http://cheltenham.thejockeyclub.co.uk/more-information/news/handicap-entries...

Weights announced 28th! Bye bye next Wednesday night and all day Thursday

The Irish are just good at getting one ready !!!

Fook me, Henderson playing games with Gold, now at 8/1 with 365, is he isn't he?

Cashed out my bets on BEN DUNDEE in Martin Pipe hurdle. Run unplaced since I struck bets. Elliot still has about 15 entered including Flawless Escape 10-1 fav.
  Consider myself lucky to get money back and will look at this race closer to the day.

Had my 1st handicap antepost bet the other day on Gold Present for the Ultima 10/1.
Already got good Festival form after coming 2nd last year and looks a much improved horse this season after wind op.
Also the step up to 3m as brought improvement and if you look at form of last win its simply rock solid.
Missed a couple of engagements due to a bruised foot apparently and no doubt the National is on the agenda but even off 155 I think the horse can take this en route to Aintree.

Weights are out - http://myemail.constantcontact.com/Weights-for-the-10-handicaps-at-The-Festival-unveiled.html?soid=1110108263682&aid=UJAv842w-go

Couple that stand out so far (not very original):

Squouateur off 135. Based on last couple of years (134 lowest) he should get in.
Tully East off 148. Nice prep run last time over 2m.

Looks like Phil Smith has been less harsh on the Irish horses this year.

I cant stop backing Flying Tiger in the County. Unbelievable rick on his mark imo.

Call Me Lord currently allotted 11-08 and Flying Tiger 10-10, despite the fact FT finished 1/2l behind him in the Kingwell giving him 2lb.

We know he will handle better ground and the Festival. My biggest handicap winner of the week by some margin now.

If you like Flying Tiger then you must surely also like Divin Bere in the same race. He's better off with Flying Tiger for a narrow beating in last year's Fred Winter and appears to have been laid out for the race.

The Irish won 7 out of 10 handicaps at last year's Festival and yet the consensus seems to be that Phil Smith has been even more lenient when assessing the Irish handicap entries this year. Time will tell.

I have had a very small saver Cash.

There is ebing laid out, and there is running absolutely awfully both times this season! Huge leap of faith to think he's going to bounce back to his best after those two runs. He is only 4lb better off... I thought FT was good value for more than the winning margin and at least we know FT has trained on.

But take your point of course...

this Squouateur seems very close to the cut off to me, people will be sweating on him making it but looks tight to me

The fixation with McManus owned horses in Festival handicaps is surely yesterday's news?

Hard to believe that Squouateur is a "talking horse" for a third consecutive Festival. It makes one want to weep.

i haven't an interest and i certainly wouldn't call my comments a fixation in mcmanus horses, just an obseervation and he is a short price fav...

so you don't feel he is well handicapped cash is king?

I stuck him up on last years handicap thread, he went ok but was beat when he fell...he's gotten people excited again this year but wouldn't be for me this time around.

CashisKIng is a moron and don't listen to him! JP has had 50 festival winners so ignore them at your peril or if your stupid. Work it out!

Any Second Now ( yes he's a JP horse!) has a UK rating of 145. I'm very confident that mark isn't beyond him and I expect a much improved performance from him some day very soon.

Groan!

I'm still happy to stand by my non-McManus list posted on 14 February (although I suspect Diego Du Charmil will be aimed at the Grand Annual rather than the novice handicap).

I hope that Calett Mad runs in the Pertemps off a potentially lenient mark of 142 but suspect connections will be tempted by the Grade 1 riches on offer in the Albert Bartlett.

I'm intrigued to see that Dell Arca has secured a mark of 145 and is eligible for the Martin Pipe race. I can't see David Pipe having too many runners at the Festival this year and I wonder if Dell Arca can fend off the younger, less exposed types and finally secure a win (at 66/1) in a race the trainer must surely want to win one year.

How many peoples bets still look good?

I had misterton nrnb so will be getting the money back bt gutted no run.

I'm also very keen on Diego Du Charmil. I think you could be right re Grand Annual, though I was a bit disappointed that he never got a mention during the stable open day the other day. They were very keen on Movewiththetimes for the novice handicap though, so I suspect Diego will stay at 2 miles.

The fact he wasn't mentioned in the stable tour is a tip in itself with that outfit.
Previous festival winner, still only 6yo and on a workable mark. Wherever he turns up, I'll be backing him.

Diego du Charmil was my first antepost bet in a handicap. Simply has to be the Grand Annual. He's a pure two miler. Also, PN has Movewiththetimes with a big chance in the 2m4f handicap and will be splitting his decent hopes up for sure.

Cant really believe hes still 25/1 and thats NRNB with Bet365.

Yes, he was pushed out to 25s yesterday. I've taken advantage. Should be much shorter.

Yes i like the looks of Diego i also like the look of another who had a nice run round last time against a high profile horse ( altior ) this ones called Valdez and he is 20/1

Apologies AC, I realise i just repeated everything you said!

Haha. No worries. Good to have confirmation that I'm thinking along the right lines.

So who’s organising the 2018 forum plunge?
It looks like we have DDC under consideration already.......

Crikey. I've copped enough flak already for my comments with regard to the excessive attention that McManus' handicap entries command and, on another thread, the reasons why fewer forumites bother to post on these forums. I think I'd better keep my thoughts on the subject of the "forum plunge" to myself this year!

Cash, Mcmanus owns approx 500 horses in training, and most of them are handicappers. If i thought something was handicapped to win then it doesn't bother me in the slightest who the owner is, but its far more likely to be owned by him than anybody else.

Ah yes the forum pluinge, it has to be done again.

le breuil......the moneys coming for the horse, come on boy!!!!

I've done a little retirement bet on Movewiththetimes (14s), Gold Present (10s), Le Breuil (20s), Bouvreuil (20s) and Divin Bere (33s). Will be surprised if I get more than one of them up but it's nice that for once it looks like I'll have 5 runners!!

What do people think of Oistrakh me Noir for the Fred Winter and Sort it Out for the Pertemps?

I'm going to be place laying gold present, not because I have a strong view one way or another, but I know he's going to be way way shorter than he probably should be, someone said the other day that yorkhill is most talked about, well i'd counter that with gold present, i'm sick to death of hearing his bloody name!!

You will be hearing his name for many moons after your lay!!!

I'm a bit of a novice at this game Duffy  I admit that, but place laying a horse you have no strong opinion is pretty bold!

Not so much at the festival it isn't, he looks like he could go off 6 or 7/1 and with the obvious momentum that is building it's going to probably take him too short for a ultra competitive handicap chase.

I don't like that word probably in there.

Just read the latest of Lydia Hislop's "Road to Cheltenham" articles and she says "Gold Present missed his intended start at Ascot last month due to a bruised foot and trainer Nicky Henderson has seemingly suggested he misses the Festival (in which he’s still favourite for the Ultima) in favour of the Grand National.".
duffy you might just get your wish !

Nicky said he only missed a few days over the bruised foot and would take in the Ultima on the way to the Grand National, he said had the Ascot race been a few days later it would have been no problem and then he'd not have ran at Cheltenham and gone straight to Aintree but seen as he missed Ascot he will take Cheltenham in. That's what I read.

Thanks for the update. Much appreciated. Way too short for such a competitive handicap for my liking. I like Royal Vacation and Singlefarmpayment who is a bit short but reckon will get a lot shorter as he went off at 5/1Fav  last year when second beaten a shd.

Gold Present and the 2 you mention where my shortlist for the race

I like Henderson's other one OO7 in the ultima. Has run well all season. Think he's been prepared for this and I've no worries on his stamina. Ideally he could be a couple of pounds lower...

HaylingBilly, Duffy wouldn't have got his wish, he's laying on the day...so no bet.

Duffy, feeling the way you do then your strategy should have been to take the 10-1 nrnb then lay him on the day. I agree he'll be shorter on the day maybe 9-2 if Pricewise tips him. He's already tipped him for National.

Surely Powersbomb must be a bet in the Grand Annual,horse off for a while but Rock the World done it last yr and the McManus horse two yrs previous. His mark has been static after running well in the Close Bros(personally I don't think he got home) last yr but Tully East,Gold Present,Last Good bye & Two Taffs weight has all increased drastically.

331 still available with 25s NRNB.

33s *

If you are looking at hcaps at this stage then you could do far worse then spend the next 18 mins listening to the views of the official hacappers on how they see the cut off point in each hacp and compare them to previous festivals.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=loeCrEmF7zc

Cheers Rozelkid- I'll have a listen now..

Heavy will be in going description according to Post

That's not exactly what they said deptford.

Could feature

In the run up...

That could be Monday night!!

This Monday yes!! No chance by next Monday.

I hope not mate

Yeah me too. But we literally have this every year!

Good to Soft (Soft in places) NAP!

Lots of interesting entries for Chemical Nicky in the handicap chases - Gold Present (Ultima), Rather Be (Close Bros), Sugar Baron (Kim Muir) etc - but his overall record in handicap chases at the Festival (other than in his dad's race) is shocking.

Champayne Lady 40/1 without favourite be thereabouts.

Quite By Chance..... 40/1 for the Brown Advisory Plate are huge odds...... NR/NB.... enjoy folks

Feb 13, 2018 -- 12:02PM, Jb23 wrote:

Act of Valour has been given a mark of 136 for the Fred Winter. If he rocks up here, which I assume he will, he surely must have a great chance. He should come on leaps and bounds for the better ground and being rated 97 on the flat gives him a touch of class. He beat 2 subsequent winners at Newcastle back before Christmas, notably Look My Way who has since come out and bolted up in and egg and spoon race at Ludlow before finishing second to Apples Shakira on Trials day. Look my Way has oddly been made favourite by a couple of firms at around 14-1 off of a mark of 135. Given he has the beating of him and is only rated a 1lb superior at around 20-1, he surely must be a nice angle into the race. Since his victory at Newcastle, he has since ran behind We Have A Dream, a leading Triumph hope twice. Once on ground much to slow for his liking up at Mussleborough and the other time at Doncaster where he ran flat with the Stewards Report below:Following the race, A. P. Heskin reported that ACT OF VALOUR, placed sixth, ran flat and the Veterinary Officer reported that a post-race examination of the gelding during routine testing failed to reveal any abnormalities.With Paul Nicholls incredible record in the race it wouldn't surprise me to think he has been laid out for this since his win at Newcastle. He has the beating of the favourite, a nice official rating and will likely see improvement from the better ground. 20-1 to me looks to be a knocking bet each way in this.

Getting a little worried how much this is being put up! Been made 8-1 fave now!

When was the last time an Antepost handicap gamble won!?

On topic of brown Advisory- I’ve backed the storyteller at 20/1 and 14/1. Looks just short for the graded route, and although GE’s update on here focussed on his entries for the jlt and rsa, I’m hoping they are going to go this route. Seems to have shortened with the fixed odds bookies but not a lot of money for it one here. I backed it last year for the Martin Pipe and did my dough ! Second time around maybe...?

It was probably Paul Nicholls in this race in 2016 with Diego Du Charmil

I had a treble with Diego in that race, Un Temps and Ballyandy in the bumper, won me a fortune, got the photo of Ballyandy winning by a nose framed, better looking at that than Babestation

Phil Smith struggling to get a sensible handle on Irish handicap entries for the umpteenth time. Wonder what/if his successor will/can do differently next year?

Given the rout of British Handicappers I can't believe that any newspaper columnist, whose tips pull through to the Rscing a Post, actually select a British handicapper at Cheltenham.

Well done to Missed a Approach for temporarily stopping the tidal wave, otherwise it would have been a shoot out between the 2 Irish Handicap plots for the race.

I'm not sure if it's poor British handicapping, or realistically Ireland have the majority of the better horses, so naturally they would therefore have the majority of the better handicappers too.

So, armed with those thoughts why would you back many or any British handicappers at the Cheltenham Festival.

BEN DUNDEE for me today in the County.
BLOW BY BLOW in the Pipe, and
THE GAME CHANGER in the lucky last

It feels a bit easier to knock out over half the field (British) as having a limited chance, but I am sure it won't feel like that when each race begins!

Happy punting forum followers.