Cheltenham Festival

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16 Nov 17 09:25
Date Joined: 16 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 1,078 | Blogger: unclepuncle's blog
With Altior now on the easy list and Douvan and Min still to return from injury it's surely worth looking for a bit of value.

A quick browse of the prices on here and Un De Sceaux at 55 looks a cracking bet.

Won the two main QM trials last season (Tingle Creek and Clarence House) but then presumably due to Douvans presence was aimed at the Ryanair which he won in tremendous front running style.  No doubt in my mind that he would have won the QM had he run in that.

Got beat at Punchestown but that was on going that would have been a bit quick over the 2m trip.

He is reported to be in great form and on target to defend his Tingle Creek crown.

Obviously if Douvan and/or Min come back in rude health then they may again aim him at the Ryanair but at 55 I'm happy to take the chance.
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Report Callisto-moon January 30, 2018 7:46 AM GMT
If hes fit then he wins. easy.
and i dont think there is any IF involved after those comments.
Report jfromthewells January 30, 2018 7:54 AM GMT
has anyone heard any news on Great Field
Report Fabulous January 30, 2018 12:25 PM GMT
Great Field - He’s coming along nicely, and might make Cheltenham, but have to wait and see..........rough quote from WPM
Report Fabulous January 30, 2018 12:25 PM GMT
Great Field - He’s coming along nicely, and might make Cheltenham, but have to wait and see..........rough quote from WPM
Report jfromthewells January 30, 2018 2:01 PM GMT
thank you you live up to your username, when was the quote
Report Fabulous January 30, 2018 8:40 PM GMT
You’re welcome J, it’s from the last couple of days, updated stable tour on ATR
Report impossible123 February 3, 2018 2:50 PM GMT
Min, despite winning the Champion Chase trial at Leopardstown, his owner Ricci has not ruled out the Ryanair; he is hoping Douvan can come back to give him more options, really?
Report impossible123 February 5, 2018 12:13 PM GMT
Altior will be running in the Game Spirit on saturday, Hendo has confirmed.
Report buddeliea February 9, 2018 1:01 PM GMT
Altior and Politilogue.....interesting!!!
Report ACStafford February 9, 2018 2:02 PM GMT
Interesting indeed. I doubt Henderson was hoping to see his name in opposition for Altior's reappearance. Reminds me a little of when Dodging Bullets beat Sprinter Sacre at Ascot, although with a somewhat smaller field and Altior has far less recover from than Sprinter Sacre had.
Report buddeliea February 10, 2018 4:30 PM GMT
Well it was interesting alright!!

Altior v Min.....again.
I suspect same result.
Report ACStafford February 10, 2018 6:10 PM GMT
Yeah. It's had to see him being beaten now. Should be shorter than he is imo.
Report wellchief February 10, 2018 8:17 PM GMT
Yeah you could argue that around evs/shade of odds on is big. Have to confess at not being as big a fan as some, but mighty impressive today, layoff or no layoff.
Report woodmanchester February 10, 2018 8:24 PM GMT
11/10 in a place and Daq showing 27/20 on Oddschecker but might be red herring?
Report unclepuncle February 10, 2018 9:04 PM GMT
The thing that stood out today was his jumping which was impeccable.

Given how well he won today I just wonder if they might regret not going straight to Cheltenham with him, No doubt if he gets beat they will say he bounced,
Report maelduin February 11, 2018 10:53 AM GMT
Looked really impressive yesterday but still can't get that Arkle run out of my head when he just never seemed to be traveling with the same gusto. Like others i'd be worried about the bounce factor.

With lots of unknowns, outside of the top 2 in the betting, i think Ordinary World is a huge e.w. price @ 50/1. Looked like he would have finished second to Min last run and was 3rd in the Arkle last year. Better on decent ground and HDB knows all about getting a horse ready for the CC. Worth a punt at those prices.
Report wellchief February 11, 2018 11:35 AM GMT
still can't get that Arkle run out of my head when he just never seemed to be traveling with the same gusto

Completely agree Maelduin - that's why I say above that I'm not as big a fan as some, for that reason.  To be far he could smash them in the QMCC, but some of the superlatives that fly around him now, he needs to win a QMCC well to justify them.  It took me a while to come round to Un De Sceaux after his 'disappointing' Arkle win (if there ever is such a thing of a disappointing win), but I'm fully in his camp now.
Report DontBeSakhee February 11, 2018 1:23 PM GMT
Like Uncle what really impressed me yesterday was his jumping Nic DB had to keep reigning him in, he was making so much distance in the air. He was taking those fences like hurdles, but still not touching a twig.

I wouldn't be so sure that Altior will bounce. He was asked to work once, right after the last fence, at which point he just bounded away on the bridle. It was nothing more than a racecourse gallop, just in an actual race, and he made Politologue look silly in the effort.

I can't believe he was at full tilt yesterday, at any point, and would expect him to come on for that run.

I backed Min for the Ryanair before Douvan got injured and I hope they now divert him there (although I suspect they won't), as based on his runs this year I've seen nothing that would suggest he'd beat a fully fit Altior.

Personally I'd ignore the flat Arkle and concentrate on the great Supreme he won. The form of which has been franked over and over again.
Report impossible123 February 11, 2018 5:52 PM GMT
Did connections of Altior not indicate they were not totally pleased with him well-being/run at the last Festival which could have necessitated his recent wind-op? Altior did not run to script, I believe.
Report duffy February 11, 2018 11:39 PM GMT
He isn't going to bounce, the trainer pretty much said he needed to be having that run to get him to where he needed to be for the festival, the bounce issue applies where the horse is fit to burst and basically bottoms himself on the racecourse....Altior needed the run so the bounce is redundant,he won so easily despite needing it because he's a lot better than the 2nd.
Report Can't Catch Me February 12, 2018 8:33 PM GMT
Sounds like Douvan is Moreno likely to run than not...
Report Can't Catch Me February 12, 2018 8:33 PM GMT
more likely ffs!
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y February 12, 2018 8:47 PM GMT
An upbeat bulletin is usually followed by being ruled out with Closutton, hope he does make it though as make the race more interesting.

They'll have some job to beat Altior but as said it makes it more interesting for me as I cannot have Min beating him.
Report impossible123 February 12, 2018 11:27 PM GMT
Might Min do a Vautour and head off to the Ryanair at the last moment to avoid Altior and gain a probable win? Otherwise, the result of the 2016 Supreme Hurdle would be repeated, I firmly believe.
Report impossible123 February 13, 2018 1:00 PM GMT
Altior is evens (nrnb) for the day with Slybet.
Report GAZO February 13, 2018 2:03 PM GMT
Douvan declared to run this weekend,that would shake the market up if he came out and won well and also give us one hell of a race to look forward to at the festival
Report buddeliea February 13, 2018 5:02 PM GMT
Min backers may not agree with that.
Personally i would love to see a top form Douvan take on Atior....and Min.
Still would fancy Altior but it would certainly liven the race,and the build up!!
Report impossible123 February 13, 2018 8:27 PM GMT
Ricci had been reported to say a fit again Douvan would offer more options; read that how one likes, but Mullins/Ricci has never run two stable stars in the same race, if memory serves.
Report duffy February 14, 2018 12:53 AM GMT
I'd be surprised if he ran at the weekend, hope he does come back though, an on song Douvan would give Altior all he could handle for sure.
Report Desmond Orchard February 14, 2018 10:56 AM GMT
Absolutely he would and I feel, after Saturday, the race needs it. The way Altior brushed Politologue aside, he looks virtually unopposable with anything bar Douvan at his best.
The worry is always that they rarely come back to their best after a long lay-off. Fingers crossed Douvan can buck that trend.
I still think they would run Min in the race anyway, they would have to be fairly confident that UDS can win the Ryanair again and even if Douvan does get to the QMCC, he is as likely to PU as he is to win. You don't fear one horse.
Of course they could always send Min to the Champion Hurdle, where he would be guaranteed to beat BD again, based on their Supreme running Devil Wink
Report Callisto-moon February 14, 2018 10:58 AM GMT
just decided to lay altior and the markets suspended!!!!!
Report buddeliea February 14, 2018 12:06 PM GMT
Report buddeliea February 14, 2018 12:36 PM GMT
Would not be a shock to me to see Douvan in the Ryanair,if things go ok Saturday.
Report Callisto-moon February 14, 2018 12:39 PM GMT
when does the market re open.
Report duffy February 14, 2018 2:51 PM GMT
Yes Des, they could call him, Min the Win or something!
Report Desmond Orchard February 14, 2018 3:56 PM GMT
Quite right too, Duffy!
A decent rhyme with the horses name improves it at least 5lb, I reckon. Add another 3lb for Irish trained and then 2lb more if Willie has said it’s one of the best he’s had and Patrick liked him the moment he sat on him. Chuck in another 3lb for a none specific prolonged absence, as they all get better when stood in their box and before you know it you’ve the best horse that ever (or never) won a Champion Hurdle! ‘til the next one.......
Report Desmond Orchard February 14, 2018 4:30 PM GMT
In fact, I might try and get “Douvan, Du pain, Du Champion” into common usage.
For no other reason than I expect I’d be able to get 3/1 about Altior on the day, as a cool*-nickname induced plunge ensues.

*Make your own minds up how ‘cool’ this one actually is, obvs.
Report duffy February 14, 2018 4:33 PM GMT
Fair enough Des, but I'll politely disagree with your inference that BD is as good as Faugheen was at his best.
Report duffy February 14, 2018 4:39 PM GMT
You've lost it Des, "pain" and "pion"  do not rhyme, you'll cost the horse 7lbs with that, there's two things I can't abide in this world.

1. Getting screw&d over by the size of Malteser bags going down in size while the price doesn't.


2. Forced rhymes that don't work.
Report impossible123 February 14, 2018 4:41 PM GMT
Douvan, Min, Uds and Yorkhill are still in, why especially the last mentioned? I think it'd take a combination of very, very unlikely events or an act of fate to have 2 or more of these running in this race, why? Each, especially Douvan (if sound), would be a formidable opponent in any 2m/2.5m chase at the Festival.

Also, Min and Yorkhill are in the Champion Hurdle too. I think connections have more money than sense; if so, just donate the "wasted" entry fee to needy charities and it would be much appreciated eg Douvan for the last two seasons was entered for the King George and Gold Cup similarly VVM.
Report Desmond Orchard February 14, 2018 4:42 PM GMT
You’re not trying it with a Peter Sellers style French accent, obviously.
Believe me, it’s a goer.
We will never get 3/1 Altior if we don’t all get on-board, old boy.

P.S. Wagon Wheels
Report buddeliea February 14, 2018 4:45 PM GMT
They got smaller Des?
Report duffy February 14, 2018 4:50 PM GMT
Yes Peter Sellers, that'd do itGrin
Report duffy February 14, 2018 4:58 PM GMT
Actually Des, I think may have found another 3lbs...the token Walsh comment immediately after dismounting from its novice festival win, "he'll win race xyz next year with his mouth open!!

Personally I've never understood this comment, because I would have thought "with his mouth shut" would be a more accurate way to describe an easy performance, whenever I'm absolutely knackered my mouth is always open.Confused
Report impossible123 February 14, 2018 5:16 PM GMT
Mouth open might indicate laughing at his opponents, I guess. Don't worry, he'll redeem himself next month, for sure - here's hoping.
Report duffy February 14, 2018 5:37 PM GMT
That must be it impGrin
Report impossible123 February 17, 2018 6:32 PM GMT
It has been reported "Mullins would have no qualms about Douvan and Min taking each other on in the Champion Chase."

I believe that when it happens. It is akin to the Pope being a Muslim!
Report buddeliea February 18, 2018 7:45 AM GMT
Makes perfect sense to me.
They are both quality 2 milers,and would give connections 2 chances of beating Altior.
Tactical options? Maybe sacrifice one for the other??!!!
Report buddeliea February 18, 2018 7:55 AM GMT
We (Rich Ricci, owner) spoke about the possibility of running him and Min in the Queen Mother and we said it would be a nice problem to have if it comes around.
"To me, the two of them are two-milers. Douvan is nicely on course for the race but Min is unbeaten this season so he has to go there.
"I can't see us putting Douvan in the Ryanair, so it's not ideal and an owner would like to divide his horses, but sometimes it's no harm having a reserve.
"That's their trip and to me that's what they should go for."
Report wellchief February 18, 2018 8:48 AM GMT
I'd still be very surprised if Douvan made the line up in the QMCC.  More likely to be saved for Punchestown and possibly the Melling at Aintree - I think we'll get a bulletin in a week or two saying 'he's not quite there', or the QMCC 'will come a week to soon for him' - conveniently saving Mullins and Ricci the dilemma of them running against each other.

If he says 'I can't see us putting Douvan in the Ryanair', I'd be surprised if he's not in it next year; I think a step up in trip is inevitable.  I think Min would struggle past 2m, so he is most likely to take on Footpad next year, but with Jacob being his retained jockey, that'll cause less issues next year.
Report maelduin February 18, 2018 12:07 PM GMT
Ricci's comments re. Douvan sound like someone who has had enough and is taking a stand i.e. telling WPM/Ruby that Douvan better run in the QMCC. To me it's ridiculous that they would even consider Douvan for the Ryanair when you could have two shots at trying to beat Altior in a prestigious race like the QMCC.

How long before Ricci decides he wants to stable a few horses with trainers in England? Going to happen soon in my opinion. He'll use the "wants more runners in England" excuse.
Report duffy February 18, 2018 3:15 PM GMT
I think that if they genuinely believe that Douvan is 100% right they'll run him in the CC, they'd have to!! If they don't run him I think it just means they're not happy with him bearing in mind you've got two serious rivals up against him.
Report impossible123 February 18, 2018 3:27 PM GMT
I think the chances of Douvan doing battle with Altior and/or Min is similar to winning the jackpot of the National Lottery 2x in succession given the past history of his connections, I'd imagine.
Report duffy February 18, 2018 6:18 PM GMT
I'm not greedy, I'd take a little shorter than 196 million /1 on it personally.

You'd never get matched waiting for that imp.Grin
Report maelduin February 18, 2018 6:50 PM GMT
Ricci went through a purple patch for a few years whereby it made the decision to re-route horses to other races very easy. Right now Ricci is in a completely different position so you can throw past history out the window. WPM/Ruby might want more chances of winning more races at Cheltenham but they won't be sacrificing Ricci's horses to do it this time around. As Duffy said "they'd have to" run him in the QMCC if 100% fit. Here's hoping he makes it now.
Report impossible123 February 19, 2018 10:59 AM GMT
You know what I think of the Mullins/Walsh/Ricci marriage? The guys speak with forked tongues; Douvan has been entered for the King George and the Ryanair but ran in the Champion Chase (CC) and never the others yet they'd been entered, why? Could one ever envisage Douvan running in any other race outside the CC? Not in a million years, in my book. These individuals may be at the top of their professions but at least show some respect for the followers of their sport/professions and not disdain - "we" might not be as involved day-to-day but we ain't stupid as to consume all orsome of the tosh they'd spounted on a regular basis on air/media.

The Sandown stewards fining Mullins for his very late withdrawal of VVM spoke volume; Mullins can do what he likes in Ireland, but here there is another important code of conduct and practice which any deliberate deviation from to suit is just not acceptable.
Report buddeliea March 8, 2018 6:07 PM GMT
UDS still in
Keeping an eye on the weather no doubt.
Report impossible123 March 8, 2018 8:15 PM GMT
This is from Patrick Mullins, son and assistant trainer at Closutton Stable.

P Mullins: "Min is in the Champion Chase, and UDS is in the Ryanair, so I don't know about (race plans) for Douvan, but he's in great form."

Min and Douvan could swerve each other then. If so, the latter could be Ryanair bound.
Report buddeliea March 8, 2018 8:33 PM GMT
Ground will decide where UDS runs.
Personally think UDS would give them the best chance in both races if its soft.
Douvan wont win either imo,whatever the ground.
Report buddeliea March 8, 2018 8:55 PM GMT
Re Min.....if its half decent ground i can see him running a big race in the Queen Mum.may not be good enough to beat Altior,but wont be far off imo.
Certainly aint a gimme i think.
Report impossible123 March 8, 2018 9:04 PM GMT
I agree about Douvan. I think he is 2nd preference to Min for this race (if sound). However, if I was the owner of UDS I'd be livid if UDS ran (sacrificed) here against Altior...unless it is heavy or worse - little chance, if not.
Report GAZO March 8, 2018 9:08 PM GMT
would they really run douvan if they thought he couldnt beat min ?
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y March 8, 2018 9:11 PM GMT
Rich Ricci usually spouts a load of fkin nonsense (regarding racing) but he said one thing regarding this race that was 100% spot on in my opinion.

He said that if R. Walsh was beside Min when the final decs come in he will ask Willie why are we running Douvan.

Myself I still do not think Douvan will show up, to be honest I will not believe he is a runner until I see him jump off.
Report impossible123 March 8, 2018 9:14 PM GMT
To be totally honest I do not think Douvan and Min will ever take each other on here, why? Just not in the dna of connections; market odds would be 5/1 against.
Report impossible123 March 8, 2018 9:24 PM GMT
"Douvan and Faugheen please in work as Cheltenham looms"

The above was reported by 'attheraces'. Usually a sure sign one or both will miss their intended target given both are inmates at Closutton, the stable of "spin".
Report ACStafford March 8, 2018 9:37 PM GMT
Ricci had two in the Mares last year and this is a far bigger race.
Report ACStafford March 9, 2018 4:05 PM GMT
If it does get really soft (I'm not convinced it will yet), connections would have to consider UDS for this race imo. He looked like he only just got the Ryanair trip to me last year. I think it'd be pushing his stamina on soft. He would however have a great chance in the Queen Mum. I've taken a bit of the 14/1 nrnb just in case we get a monsoon. No risk: there's no way he'll run if we don't.
Report impossible123 March 9, 2018 4:20 PM GMT
If it was really soft Douvan a probable absentee with UDS rerouted as sacrificial lamb to Altior, I believe; Min and Yorkhill in the Ryanair if Faugheen runs in the Champion Hurdle (CH) otherwise, Yorkhill 1st preference is the CH.
Report HaylingBilly March 9, 2018 4:33 PM GMT
I cannot imagine any scenario where UDS will be taken out of the Ryanair after todays declarations. None of the Mullins horses will beat Altior so why would they give up the chance of winning what looks like a weak Ryanair with the reigning champion and red hot favourite. Not a chance. Come rain or shine or a plague of locusts UDS will run and win the Ryanair. I am off the fence !
Report ACStafford March 9, 2018 4:38 PM GMT
You're probably right and I'll get my money back, but I'm willing to give them my score for a few days.
Report sixtwosix March 9, 2018 5:39 PM GMT
I do not envisage both Min and Douvan turning up.

Douvan has not has a race in a year ,since he was injured .
Taking on Altior with out a prep run , not a chance he will even get close ......but then again I don't think he will run.
Report buddeliea March 9, 2018 6:01 PM GMT
Re UDS.....its simple really.
Unless its at least soft he will run in Ryanair.
If soft or worse,the possibility of the QM increases.
The Owners said this after his win in Ireland,and they will be wanting him in the QM if conditions suit.
To be fair he is tailor made for a soft ground Champion Chase.
Report unclepuncle March 9, 2018 7:21 PM GMT
I123 - there is not a fuc*ing chance in hell that Mo s runs anywhere but the QM.
I will leave the forum if he does.Devil
Report unclepuncle March 9, 2018 7:21 PM GMT
Report impossible123 March 12, 2018 11:39 AM GMT
Altior at 'evens' must be a very good bet, all things being equal, against a horse he'd beaten convincingly over hurdles ie Min, and another who suffers from intermittent lameness ie Douvan.

On the flip side should Douvan do a runner at 3/1, the R4 is enormous which will render 'evens' no longer a bargain.
Report unclepuncle March 12, 2018 11:54 AM GMT
Assuming there are no late defectors then I'll be looking to back Min e/w at around 4/1 as a bet to nothing.

Hopefully all 3 of them make it and it's the first of a series of really great races - like when Viking Flagship / Marthas Son / Deep Sensation were taking each other on. Best race ever imo:
Report sc1883 March 12, 2018 12:32 PM GMT
Altior lame this morning, 50/50 to make Wednesday :(
Report marychain1 March 12, 2018 12:41 PM GMT
And the hits just keep on coming
Report unclepuncle March 12, 2018 12:51 PM GMT
No way they would risk it - wonder if the lameness has anything to do with the heavy ground and Douvan being declared!!
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y March 12, 2018 12:56 PM GMT
Once they've drained the pus out the lameness should be gone within 24hrs, it's quite common during wet weather.

It's definitely not ideal though and has to seriously knock confidence in even Altior's biggest fans
Report impossible123 March 12, 2018 12:58 PM GMT
What a shame if Altior misses the race. The connections of UDS none too please either...a great chance missed!
Report unclepuncle March 12, 2018 12:59 PM GMT
Just remembered they still have 48 hours before the off so yes it is possible and Henderson did suggest they were hopeful.
Report impossible123 March 12, 2018 1:48 PM GMT
Assuming Altior misses the gig and Min and Douvan are running here which of the two Mullins/Ricci's horses would you back? Personally, Min for me despite Walsh has chosen Douvan.
Report sewter lives again March 12, 2018 1:56 PM GMT
Would you be happy if you had a horse as good as UDS and it wasnt running on Wednesday
Report impossible123 March 12, 2018 2:00 PM GMT
^^I would, if Altior was out. He'd have a great chance beating Min and/or Douvan.
Report ACStafford March 12, 2018 2:13 PM GMT
I'd favour Douvan over Min. I didn't expect him to be declared, so I reckon they think he's in as good a condition as possible without a run. I just think he's in a different league to Min.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 March 12, 2018 2:26 PM GMT
I think the market will tell all there is that needs to be said in the 10 minutes before the QMCC on Weds for sure. If Douvan is being smashed in then hope your on at juicy prices. For me though i am defo waiting, 5/2 with a 45-50p rule 4 no thanks i'd rather take the 5/4 - 11/8 that will surely be available Weds morning
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y March 13, 2018 8:06 AM GMT
Altior fine
Report unclepuncle March 13, 2018 8:08 AM GMT
Great news.
Report impossible123 March 13, 2018 10:09 PM GMT
Douvan is running here instead of the Ryanair because Walsh wants to ride UDS in the Ryanair instead. He has also chosen 1st outing of the season Douvan over Min which is telling in itself.

Altior was 4/5 before the weekend scare but is now 11/10 - a 30% price expansion. Altior has been reported to be none the worse by Hendo since. If so, at 11/10 Altior could represent value as he is undoubtedly the best horse in the race.
Report sixtwosix March 13, 2018 10:46 PM GMT
No chance Douvan will beat Min , will probably hit at least one hard  , a very statuesque jumper of fences , and that is without a year off  , wont be involved in the finish .
Report impossible123 March 14, 2018 3:38 PM GMT
Altior running in snatches had give his supporters many hearts in the mouths moment. What a horse!
Report duffy March 14, 2018 3:42 PM GMT
I gave up watching him before the home turn, and then he popped up on the outside, Nico was never happy for one moment on him was he, not quite as bad but it was a bit like Flagship Uberalles's win.
Report vinnie_roe March 14, 2018 3:44 PM GMT
it's a pity douvan fell. He would have stretched them, coming down the hill.
Report impossible123 March 14, 2018 3:50 PM GMT
I hope Douvan is ok after that spill.

Altior will be a 2m chase champion for at least another year, I'd expect, even in the presence of Footpad.
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y March 14, 2018 4:01 PM GMT
I absolutely love that horse Love he eats that hill up
Report buddeliea March 14, 2018 5:05 PM GMT
Different class.
Report unclepuncle March 14, 2018 6:06 PM GMT
Like BVD he is just so strong up the straight - only seems to come alive jumping the 2nd last.
Report duffy March 14, 2018 6:23 PM GMT
If it was better ground I don't think he'd have been on and off the bridal throughout like he was today, he'd have probably won by a street.

It's nice that Mullins said that Douvan felt like the old Douvan, but in truth that doesn't mean he'd have felt that way for the rest of the way because the point he departed at the race hadn't even really started yet.
Report eric_morris March 15, 2018 5:54 AM GMT
Great performance by a ring rusty Altior have lost my voice shouting him home in the stands. His last run he didnt have to find the gears which he hasnt had touse for a long time. Tacky ground prevented him travelling as he would on better. When asked the gears are there alright he was going away in the last 50 yards. Pure class and guts.
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