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unclepuncle
16 Nov 17 09:25
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Date Joined: 16 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 6,444 | Blogger: unclepuncle's blog
With Altior now on the easy list and Douvan and Min still to return from injury it's surely worth looking for a bit of value.

A quick browse of the prices on here and Un De Sceaux at 55 looks a cracking bet.

Won the two main QM trials last season (Tingle Creek and Clarence House) but then presumably due to Douvans presence was aimed at the Ryanair which he won in tremendous front running style.  No doubt in my mind that he would have won the QM had he run in that.

Got beat at Punchestown but that was on going that would have been a bit quick over the 2m trip.

He is reported to be in great form and on target to defend his Tingle Creek crown.

Obviously if Douvan and/or Min come back in rude health then they may again aim him at the Ryanair but at 55 I'm happy to take the chance.

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Replies: 254
By:
sageform
When: 16 Nov 17 20:36
Don't like backing anything for March before the New Year but if I had to pick one for the QM it would be Politologue.
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 16 Nov 17 21:21
ON THE AFTERTIMING THREAD....

equine flew • June 22, 2017 12:10 PM BST
Our old friend Sageform but he was duly pulled immediately

sageform 21 Jun 17 15:47 Joined: 15 Jun 01 | Topic/replies: 9,278 | Blogger: sageform's blog
Yeeha! Backed Qemah but I have Barzelona to thank. What a daft ride on Usherette.

Emitdeb 21 Jun 17 15:49 Joined: 28 Dec 07 | Topic/replies: 650 | Blogger: Emitdeb's blog
Nice after timing sage... Grin
By:
shockster
When: 17 Nov 17 17:51
With doubts about the top 3 and Douvan is unlikely to take on Min due to R.Ricci splitting his I've played Great Field at 12/1.  Feel certain JP will want a runner so fair price to me.

Would love to see the them all turn up on form, but has to be a major doubt.
By:
impossible123
When: 07 Dec 17 22:21
After the unexpected defection of Douvan in the Tingle Creek despite his good work and well-being reported by his trainer shortly prior I think there is a possibility Douvan has had a recurrence of his injury or suffered another - similar scenario with Faugheen this time last year - when his work was stepped-up. If so, with the wind-op of Altior Fox Norton could be the principal beneficiary and in the driving seat for this race especially with a polished performance on saturday in the Tingle Creek.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 10 Dec 17 11:59
have backed politologue for the champion chase at 10s and 8s and will continue to do so at the 8s or better ,given the doubts around altior,douvan ,special tiara etc the odds  about the ditcheat horse are attractive imo .......beat a decent horse in fox norton yesterday and shirley has improvement to come ,douvan and altior have to prove they are as good as they were and according to hendo we wont see altior till march at best ,douvan ? is he as good as he was before the setback ? well he may be but w.mullins took him out of the tingle creek as "he just didnt please us enough in his last bit of work "or words to that effect !so make of that what you will ! we can only guess how hard or how softly they push douvan at home following an injury but obviously the fact he missed the race shows that they were not happy enough at this stage of his comeback .
the fistpump in the winners enclosure from nicholls was significant to me ! i.e  we have a  genuine grade 1 contender after a few years in the wilderness. at the prices to me  8/1 is fair.
MIN is reportedly stepping up in distance aiming at the ryanaire and would possibly be pitched into the champion should douvan not line up but he is around 7-8s and not a value price given the iffs and buts
By:
buddeliea
When: 10 Dec 17 12:20
Interesting Foyles

Wonder what lies ahead for UDS? Running in a 2m race today,and big prices for QM available.
Would he run both UDS and Min in Ryanair?
Or would one of them run in the QM,especially if doubts surround Douvan.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 10 Dec 17 12:56
would min go to the ryannair? always looked a 2 miler to me..we will see i suppose
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 10 Dec 17 13:26
yeah bud uds is a very big  price for the champion but as he has the ryanaire as his "prefered" target and min also supposedly aimed at that race it will take a lot of sorting out, harryc its been said that min is to be aimed at the ryanaire but that is probably dependent on douvan turning up for the champion  as to who goes where  ,nicholls has said its the champion for his horse  so hopefully i know where i stand .
By:
harry callaghan
When: 10 Dec 17 13:36
where has it been said he goes ryannair foyles i haven't kept up with it all but the horse looks a crack 2 miler to my eye
By:
buddeliea
When: 10 Dec 17 13:45
Yeh,no doubt Ryanair is most likely race for UDS but you just never know what may happen between now and March,and I have had a few nibbles on here for the QM.
Yes,Politologue has earned his place for sure and no worries re other races.
Must admit I never thought he was a likely winner of the QM,but hes proved now for me that hes one with a fair chance.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 10 Dec 17 13:47
think it was in todays post ,dint buy it but had a quick look when i backed politologue in my local  laddies this morning ,may be wrong tho harry
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 10 Dec 17 13:54
yeah budd me neither ,but according to nicholls  "they  wanted him to be a gold cup horse that they campagined him for staying distances  last season but after someone(jockey maybe ) hinted that he may be better over shorter that they had a rethink,or words to that effect
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 10 Dec 17 14:00
altior according to hendo on  impossibles post earlier on the tingle creek thread on the ap forum " wont run untill the champion " thats a long time off no matter how good a horse .wind problem ? breathing op ? they are usually back in action sooner? correct me if i am wrong
By:
buddeliea
When: 10 Dec 17 14:30
That was very good for a 1st run of the season.
I think he would win a soft ground QM.
By:
buddeliea
When: 10 Dec 17 14:31
UDS that is.
By:
buddeliea
When: 10 Dec 17 14:31
UDS that is.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 10 Dec 17 14:54
yeah budd would have a very good chance if it came up soft or worse ,on yesterdays evidence  looks like last seasons 2m novice chasers are a decent bunch charbel ran a decent race also anyone heard anything regarding future  plans for this one ? was considering having a saver on him each way at big prices for the champion around 33s on here but nothing on the pink which is a bit disconcerting so will hold off till plans are clearer  ,could be a bit better going left handed andrwas running  stormer in the arkle before departing at the 2nd last no way of knowing how close he would have got to altior if he had stood up but put it this way he was making altior work for it and was going no worse than the winner ,it may have been a tired fall but to me the winner wasnt looking a 1/4 shot before the 2nd last .
By:
unclepuncle
When: 10 Dec 17 17:45
I expect the presence of Douvan and/or Min will mean he goes for the Ryanair again , but on soft ground UDS would be the one to beat imo, even if Altior turns up.
By:
sageform
When: 13 Dec 17 08:21
I didn't see any obvious excuse for Charbel at Sandown.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 13 Dec 17 09:08
no sageform ,charbel was pretty weak in the betting beforehand but ran a decent race not beaten that far ,could be as shown in the arkle he may be a fair bit better left handed and as said  altior was challenging at the 2nd last but charbel was half  a length up both seemed to be going equally as well as each other at the time of charbels departure and as said it was not looking a forgone conclusion to me ,dont know what plans are for the horse but at 25s books and bigger on the exchanges  thats fair imo and  will have a  a few quid as a saver.
By:
eric_morris
When: 13 Dec 17 14:22
Douvan very weak on here looking at 7/2 makes you think he is not the horse he was. Plenty of insiders from the stable to give a realistic price on here.

For me he looks like a decoy horse, not the horse he was living off past reputation being used by Mullins to announce him on target for races to create openings for his other 2 milers. Lets see how strong opposition he is pitched in against first time out. Probably weak.
By:
eric_morris
When: 13 Dec 17 14:31
Anyone who has backed him for the Arkle just because the Coral employed Tizzards were announcing that was his likely target needs to just rip up their slip amd move on.
By:
eric_morris
When: 13 Dec 17 14:32
Wrong fred
By:
sageform
When: 13 Dec 17 14:40
Foyles, Altior did finish the Arkle very well but if you look at what he has actually beaten so far, his rating and price is more to do with reputation as is Douvan although the latter has won by big margins at his best. I am still on Politologue as I expect him to be shorter as the day approaches unless one of the above wins a prep race by a distance.
By:
sageform
When: 13 Dec 17 15:09
Fox Norton put Cloudy Dream well in his palce earlier this season betating him nearly as far as Altior did in the Arkle and Politologue beat fox Norton so I don't see that Altior is that far ahead. Douvan's best rating was when beating Sizing John and Simply Ned but neither of those has won a Grade 1 over 2 miles.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 13 Dec 17 15:54
yes sageform pretty much my reasoning .
By:
buddeliea
When: 15 Dec 17 17:10
I see Nicholls is now looking at the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton over xmas for Politologue.
Makes sense to me not to have a really hard race trying to beat UDS at Ascot.
Would not be great for confidence either should UDS beat him well.
Good move by the trainer imo.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 15 Dec 17 17:21
yes budd sensible decision !
By:
impossible123
When: 15 Dec 17 18:22
Politologue, rejuvenated after being dropped in trip, is Champion Chase bound, all things being equal, and UDS is not even if Douvan is an absentee as Min will most probably deputise. So, why engage UDS at Ascot over 2m? If Mullins was unwilling to bring UDS over for the Tingle Creek, and with the two principals, Altior and Douvan, had yet to see a racecourse this season I think a good decision made by Nichols; the main target for Politologue is next March, not Ascot.
By:
wellchief
When: 16 Dec 17 09:30
I'd imagine Fox Norton will be stepped up in trip soon, Tizzard always keen to see him in the King George, and visually I think his best performance was at Aintree over 2.5m, so he may well not be seen over 2m again (just a hunch).

UDS was awesome in the Ryanair, so while he may have the odd run over 2m during the season, I don't see why they'd change his festival target when he was so impressive last year.

The rest of them? Hard to pick one for me. Hendo has shown he can get one there for the big day with a limited prep (Sprinter/MTOY etc) so if Altior does run, you know he's race ready.  Douvan has obvious question marks. Politologue has to be at the top of the England pecking order at this stage.

Would have to be Min for me though. Agree with Harry in that I think he's a crack 2 miler, strong hurdler and impressive over chases. If he and Douvan are fit, I'd think they'd up Douvan in trip rather than Mine, especially as the QMCC is not Douvan's race to defend.
By:
impossible123
When: 16 Dec 17 17:30
Min vs Altior in the Queen Mother,...a rerun of the 2016 Supreme Hurdle. If so, Altior for me if he is fully fit.
By:
firstimevisor
When: 16 Dec 17 17:34
And if he's not fully fit which one will you go for?
By:
unclepuncle
When: 16 Dec 17 19:03
No doubt you would have gone for Al Ferof to beat Sprinter Sacre when they met in the Arkle based on the previous years Supreme result.

Try having an origianl thought that goes against the market for once you bore.
By:
impossible123
When: 17 Dec 17 18:45
No Douvan this season (latest).
By:
sageform
When: 17 Dec 17 18:51
After backing Politologue ante post for the Tingle and getting a decent price for once, I decided to do the same for the QM the next day. A long way off but so far so good. Surely only a fully fit Altior is ahead of him now?
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 20 Dec 17 12:18
altior a bit weak , min fav now on here
By:
buddeliea
When: 20 Dec 17 18:09
I shall be doing a rain dance around festival time,been taking big prices on here for UDS.
Actually think he would have a fair chance on good/soft,especially with the Altior situation,but probably wont run unless its at least soft.
I'm sure the owners would love another crack at the race anyway.
By:
impossible123
When: 20 Dec 17 18:56
3/1 Altior (here) is a x'mas bonus, and purely market manipulation, I think. Hendo is no Mullins....
By:
unclepuncle
When: 20 Dec 17 19:07
Unbelievable.Cry
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