Cheltenham Festival

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21 Oct 17 17:34
Date Joined: 16 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 6,444 | Blogger: unclepuncle's blog
Looks a three horse race even at this stage and for me Buveur D'Air looks by far the safest bet at 4/1. I'd have him about 2/1 personally.

Young enough to still be improving so should be even better this season than last. Goes on any ground from heavy to good-to-form, hurdles fluently, travels well and finds plenty off the birdle, stays 2 1/2 miles and has the best trainer. Pretty bombproof basically.
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Report scooby91 October 21, 2017 11:01 PM BST
Agreed it's nice to look for an angle or a big price but buveur dair and faugheen should he make it are a cut a above the rest,
Report shockster October 22, 2017 11:13 AM BST
Can't disagree with Buveur D'air at all.  It's a very weak division at present.  No 4/1 available anymore.
Report shockster October 23, 2017 2:43 PM BST
Had another look and although I still can't see past Buveur D'air, the one at a price I like is Mount Mews at 40/1. 

It is speculative, butI think he's better than the Aintree run, however it is possible that's how good he is.  Malcolm Jefferson said in an interview previously that he would start off in the Fighting Fifth and would train him as a Champion Hurdler if as they believed he was good enough.  I suppose they'll have a better idea after the Newcastle run. Anyway thought he was worth a dabble as can see this being a smallish field come March.
Report equine flew October 23, 2017 3:02 PM BST
"Looks a three horse race even at this stage"  But this can change so quickly over the next few months.

This time last year I imagine only one horse that finished in the first 4 places of the race was less than 20/1 in the market.
Report Desmond Orchard October 24, 2017 1:08 PM BST
I think Melon will end up being the Mullins horse for this one.
His performance in the Supreme was pretty good and he was clearly strongly fancied before the off, he will only get better for racing too.
Placed horses in the Supreme have a decent record in this (including last years winner), so Melon rates a decent e/w bet at the prices.
Report bluebirdfan October 24, 2017 2:22 PM BST
If looking for one at a price how about Divin Bere??
Report deepingfox October 24, 2017 3:33 PM BST
Melon for me too Desomond O, all the rage for the Supreme this spring then didn't get prep run before the day, but ran amazingly for a once raced hurdler. Taken on for pace to and paid price but still close 2nd in grade 1 hurdle. 20s seems more than fair value, given the Champion Hurdle this year was pants, and the Neptune had nothing coming out of it for the 2018 Champion Hurdle..
Report shockster October 24, 2017 4:44 PM BST
I agree that Melon is potentially open to plenty of improvement and time will tell on that, but not really convinced about last years Supreme.  However, there are plenty worse 20/1 shots. That's for certain.
Report unclepuncle December 2, 2017 2:27 PM GMT
Delighted with todays performance.

Still 7/2 which looks way to big in what is effectively a 2 horse race - time to go in again.
Report bluebirdfan December 15, 2017 10:49 AM GMT
Melon should be winning well tomorrow if he’s a genuine Champion Hurdle contender
Report Can't Catch Me December 18, 2017 10:44 PM GMT
Faugheen very weak the last 24 hours
Report buddeliea December 19, 2017 7:39 AM GMT
Looks like the Tent is on for another place.
Forget Melon imo, unless huge improvement appears in the next few months.
Report bluebirdfan December 19, 2017 10:47 AM GMT
All the bookies have cut B D’Air today, not more bad news for Willie/Ricci hopefully
Report unclepuncle December 19, 2017 11:27 AM GMT
A serious plunge on BVD on here too - only 13/8 now.
Report buddeliea December 19, 2017 12:11 PM GMT
Any genuine news on why this is happening?
Report Can't Catch Me December 19, 2017 12:13 PM GMT
Haven't seen any. Think the market is just spooked after the Douvan news, and Faugheen's previous.

Although I would be a tad concerned if I were a Faugheen backer I must admit.
Report buddeliea December 19, 2017 12:18 PM GMT
Yeh, so would I be!

I am really looking forward to these two in the Champion Hurdle.Would be such a shame if one did not make it,the race needs both.
Report impossible123 December 24, 2017 8:23 AM GMT
Mullins has been exceptionally quiet about the well-being of Faugheen prior to his engagement in the Ryanair Hurdle on 29th Dec. No news is good news, I hope.
Report wellchief December 27, 2017 10:40 AM GMT
Anyone who thought Melon had a chance of winning a CH, I think the way Beveur D'air laughed at the New One yesterday shows he hasn't.

May well be the best of the rest on the day though.

I'd still have BAD over Faugheen, wish I had some 4's like a few at the top of this thread.
Report bluebirdfan December 27, 2017 11:24 AM GMT
We can only hope both Faugheen and BDA stay fit until March; without either it looks a weak division
Report impossible123 December 29, 2017 10:12 AM GMT
If Faugheen impresses at Leopardstown later today he'll leapfrog BD in the betting market for sure. Agree, a weak renewal if Faugheen and/or BD is/are absent.
Report Hibore December 29, 2017 11:08 AM GMT
I agree that Faugheen will go clear fav if he wins the egg and spoon race today. But taking 2/1 today on a fragile horse that is more like 50/50 to actually make the race is nuts. Backing both @1/2 to win the race is maybe the best play as long as one turns up it will long odds on against the current field.
Report impossible123 December 29, 2017 11:47 AM GMT
Faugheen at 2/1 against this lot shows enormous respect for BD, and probably 1/2 of that is a possiblility of a recurrence of an old injury, I assume; I'd make him 11/10 on merit alone for the CH, at best.

2/1 is fair given the quality of the field prior to Leopardstown later today.
Report buddeliea December 29, 2017 12:30 PM GMT
Don't think their is anything between them on merit.Both won the race,and with identical times.
Just make BD fav on the strength that he is younger and a possible improver,plus has not had any injury problems.
Report sageform December 29, 2017 2:37 PM GMT
Another Festival market turned upside down. As I have said for many years, it is evens to name a horse that will run at the Festival before the New Year never mind win.
Report impossible123 December 29, 2017 2:38 PM GMT
Faugheen bombed spectacularly in the Ryanair Hurdle - retirement beckons, I think.
Report impossible123 December 29, 2017 2:40 PM GMT
Yorkhill looking increasingly likely now, I believe.
Report Hibore December 29, 2017 2:42 PM GMT
Very sad. Totally non event unless Melon learns to settle or Yorkhill goes back hurdling.
Report sageform December 29, 2017 2:57 PM GMT
Certainly looks Buveur D'airs to lose but after the loss of Douvan and Faugheen and the doubts over Altior, who would take less than 5/1 over any Festival candidate before March 10. I certainly won't be.
Report unclepuncle December 29, 2017 2:59 PM GMT
Obviously a bit sad to see a horse fai like that (Istabraq and Kauto at least bid farewell at the festival) but given my antepost position I was not too disappointed.Mischief

Given the inherent risks of antepsot betting I have laid off my stakes on BVD at 1.75 so fingers crossed he gets there and hoses up.

The OP wasn't too bad - I believe!!Laugh
Report FOYLESWAR December 29, 2017 3:09 PM GMT
no not bad from the op and right to lay off your stakes considering the hiccups that can and often do happen .
Report wellchief December 29, 2017 3:18 PM GMT
I know every thread seems to have a Yorkhill comment but I genuinely believe he is the only threat to Beveur D'air.

Still don't think he jumps slick enough for a Queen Mum but no problem with his hurdling imo and has far more speed than stamina.

Previous Neptune winners have great records in this and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he ended up in this now. That lets Mullins split Yorkhill, Min and UDS as well.

Would still have Beveur D'air as strong fav, even if Yorkhill did line up though.

Beveur D'air is easily the best but would I go anywhere near 1/2 before New Year, not a chance.

All the stars aligning for MTOY to place again!! A pregnant Annie Power would most likely place in this as well Laugh
Report impossible123 December 29, 2017 3:39 PM GMT
Still takers at 10 here for Faugheen, barmy army followers?
Report unclepuncle December 29, 2017 3:44 PM GMT
Given the market fluctuations the week before Christmas I'm surprised there haven't been some posters suggesting that Mullin s/Ricci knew Faugheen would pull up today - at 1/6 Ricci could have made a fortune laying him???Devil
Report duffy December 29, 2017 5:43 PM GMT
I'm a sucker for this kind of thing, but I'd be strongly tempted to start backing Yorkhill for this now.
Report Can't Catch Me December 29, 2017 6:08 PM GMT
I personally don't think Yorkhill would have the pace to beat a slick BD in a CH myself. It takes a pretty big leap of faith when you look at the form book and the fact he's only really beaten Stayers.

I think they genuinely believe he can win a GC one day, and in another open year in that division, I'd be surprised if they don't fancy a go.
Report BigField December 29, 2017 8:55 PM GMT
beuve dever going to be one of me accumulator bankers of the meeting
Report Can't Catch Me December 29, 2017 9:43 PM GMT
Me too BF.
Report Can't Catch Me December 29, 2017 9:54 PM GMT
If they were to tackle 2m with Yorkhill though, I wouldn't be surprised if it were the QMCC.
Report kavvie December 29, 2017 10:38 PM GMT
theres a lot of improvement in melon i feel!!
Report duffy December 30, 2017 7:39 AM GMT
Yes CCM, I agree, I'm tempted to start backing him for the QM, Try to get back my money from backing him for last years CHGrin.

Can't see UDS running in anything other than the Ryanair, can't see them relying on Min, Yorkhill's speed screaming in their ears 2 MILES shouldn't be ignored for much longer, his jumping was very good the other day too I thought.
Report buddeliea December 30, 2017 8:14 AM GMT
Careful Duffy, I suspect he will be given another go at 3m.

Think Melon will be their main hope,but after watching BD canter all over TNO,they are really playing for place money.
Sometimes you just have to accept that someone else has a horse you cannot beat,i think they realise this.....if Faugheen don't make it that is!!
Report FOYLESWAR December 30, 2017 9:48 AM GMT
anyone feel that may be faugheen just    bounced   ? had it on my mind to lay him yesterday for that reason  but didnt bother (typical )unless anything else  comes to light could be the bounce factor has done him ! also  i thought it odd that the stables other runner  cilas emery put it up to him so early in the race .
Report duffy December 30, 2017 10:59 AM GMT
I don't rate BD as highly as some that's for sure, it may well be my own shortcomings in not being able to appreciate what I'm seeing but I haven't seen a stellar turn of foot from the horse and think that Yorkhill would travel every bit as well and quicken away from him.

But I also think it over fences too, even against Altior who probably raised a question against himself when winning the Arkle.

I could be just plain old biased as Yorkhill is currently my fav. horse in training and desperately want him back at 2 miles.
Report Can't Catch Me December 30, 2017 11:13 AM GMT
I think Melon has a lot of improvement in him. Thought he was given a poor ride at Cheltenham in the context of winning that race on the day, but may help him in the long run. He was so keen and eager to stride on the whole way round. With a better pace and when he learns to settle, I'd be confident he would beat MTOY and TNO, even on the revised terms.

But I wonder if Willie feels he hasn't got anything to beat BD, Faugheen aside, so may as well target other prizes with the likes of Yorkhill.
Report Can't Catch Me December 30, 2017 11:14 AM GMT
Agree about Yorkhill's jumping Duffy. And when you consider he was a bit of a sloppy jumper of hurdles, I think keeping him over fences is an absolute no brainer.
Report sageform December 30, 2017 1:37 PM GMT
I would still back My Tent or Yours without the fav. I thought he won with plenty in hand last time and while I don't think he would battle very hard, he might well follow his stablemate home.
Report duffy December 30, 2017 1:44 PM GMT
Such a shame that MTOY's wasn't as tractable through his races 3 years ago as he is now, would have been a Champion Hurdler.
Report buddeliea December 30, 2017 2:33 PM GMT
Yep,just did not settle well enough back in the day.
Reckon he might have a couple if he had settled as he seems to these days.
Certainly would have beaten Jezki imo.
Report DontBeSakhee December 30, 2017 3:58 PM GMT
In an effort to have a play in the race, have had buttons on Arctic Fire at 55. Couldn't find any news about him so presume all is well, despite no run this season. Wouldn't surprise me to see Mullins send him straight to the race. Has won first time up every time he has been sent out, bar one run where he was second.

Cheltenham form reads 221.

Don't like backing horses that are 9 for championship races, but Rooster Booster did it after winning the County.

Can't see past BD, but odds are prohibitive now.
Report wellchief December 30, 2017 4:18 PM GMT
I was singing the Arctic Fire song on here all last year Sakhee, thought he'd have a big chance but then didn't back him when he won the County Hurdle.

Yorkhill would be straight back over hurdles if it was me personally. Just think he loses more distance at each fence than he does at each hurdle.

I agree with Duffy and think he's got great cruising speed, I could see him and Beveur D'air turning for home miles clear of the rest, both on the bridle.

Defi dear Seuil could still be the joker in the pack too. His run was to bad to be true last time, so not his true running. Haven't really looked to see how last year's Triumph is working out but he was miles the best juvenile and 20/1 could look big after his next race.

Beveur D'air still wins though!!
Report wellchief December 30, 2017 4:19 PM GMT
Defi du Seuil, bloody predictive!
Report DontBeSakhee December 30, 2017 5:02 PM GMT
I'm stuck with a 9/1 voucher on Defi du Seuil for the CH. Couldn't believe how bad his last run was although it seems there's a bit of a cloud over Hobbs' yard at the minute so could possibly account for it.

I was lucky enough to have Arctic Fire at 25 on the morning of the County, but then gave a chunk back when he ran at Punchestown.
Report impossible123 December 30, 2017 6:51 PM GMT
Hendo thought Yorkhill could be BD's biggest danger if the former deputises for Faugheen here.
Report bluebirdfan January 4, 2018 4:12 PM GMT
They must be blooming glad they aborted BDA’s Novice Chase campaign last season!
Report impossible123 January 4, 2018 5:16 PM GMT
Aborting the JLT despite sharing favouritism was an astute move by his experienced, decisive and talented handler - no ****footing about unlike his counterpart at Closutton. Would it not be ironic if Yorkhill follows suit and trumps Buveur D'air here in March?
Report ReaseHeath January 4, 2018 8:33 PM GMT
Henderson decisive Laugh - the king of the hokey cokey, Binocular his finest exponent thereof...
Report wellchief January 5, 2018 10:31 AM GMT
In the same mould as Arctic Fire, Wicklow Brave at 33/1 nrnb BOG is one that interests me.

Quirky sort, and gave himself no chance in the Champion Hurdle last year with the way he acted, but proved he is top quality at Punchestown and a previous festival winner (albeit a sickening handicap plot).

In a wide open renewal, lacking any sort of depth, 33/1 nrnb is a fair shout to me.
Report sageform January 6, 2018 11:38 AM GMT
Anyone know what they are planning for the Supreme winner Labaik? He beat Melon comfortably.
Report impossible123 January 6, 2018 1:11 PM GMT
I thought he suffered a career ending injury last season? Not heard anything since.
Report sageform January 6, 2018 4:40 PM GMT
You could be right. Last ran in April.
Report bluebirdfan January 6, 2018 8:01 PM GMT
Was he not seized as a crime asset?
Report buddeliea January 7, 2018 7:18 AM GMT
Willie Mullins is planning to enter Faugheen in next month's BHP Insurances Irish Champion Hurdle as he continues to ponder the gelding's disappointing run over Christmas.
The 10-year-old was the odds-on favourite for the Ryanair Hurdle at Leopardstown but was pulled up with two to jump after dropping away tamely, leaving connections mystified.
Mullins reports the 2015 Champion Hurdle hero to be in good heart at present, with the Grade One contest on February 3 a possible opportunity for swift redemption.
He said: "I didn't see him out this morning, but John (Cobb, work rider) gave me a ring coming down in the car and said he was in great shape. He did a steady canter this morning and is eating, is bright and is well in himself.
"That's where we are now and we'll do a little more every day with him. Nothing has come to light and I'm waiting on one test back with him. I was supposed to have it back last week but it was to go to England or America, but we don't have it back yet.
"It was very rare to have him gone so quick and to me, going to the second hurdle, we were wondering were the others not letting him away at the speed. Paul (Townend) said there was nothing there and he was gone early.
Report buddeliea January 7, 2018 7:24 AM GMT
Bit of a strange one this.
No one seems to have any reason.
Still waiting on one test though,wonder what that was for?
I have serious doubts we will see him again before March,maybe this season,but hopefully we will.
Report unclepuncle January 7, 2018 9:18 AM GMT
If they find nothing wrong then it makes sense to run in Ireland as his best performance came in the race two years ago.
If he bombs out again and is clearly gone at the game then they have a month to shuffle their pack and maybe can get a hurdle run into Yorkhill in something like the Redmills Trial.
Report buddeliea January 7, 2018 9:58 AM GMT
If they find nothing wrong,what on earth was that run all about?
He won well enough 1st time out.
And why have they not got results of this test when they were supposed to?
All seems just a tad weird to me.
Report unclepuncle January 7, 2018 10:14 AM GMT
Well it is Mullins and Ricci so there is bound to be an element of the twighlight zone about things.Wink
Report duffy January 7, 2018 6:58 PM GMT
Perhaps they might want to step the security up around the horse, after all, this is something that Mullins himself has worried about in the past.
Report BornToWin January 7, 2018 8:11 PM GMT
They ain't machines. Maybe he wasn't in the mood, or had a sore gut or something.
Report sageform January 7, 2018 8:22 PM GMT
The Irish authorities have ruled out foul play as their CCTV didn't detect any strangers wandering about the stable yard at Leopardstown. How does that prove anything? I doubt if Sizing John or Faugheeen were got at but if they were it is just as likely to be a stable employee.
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