Cheltenham Festival
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Looks a three horse race even at this stage and for me Buveur D'Air looks by far the safest bet at 4/1. I'd have him about 2/1 personally.
Young enough to still be improving so should be even better this season than last. Goes on any ground from heavy to good-to-form, hurdles fluently, travels well and finds plenty off the birdle, stays 2 1/2 miles and has the best trainer. Pretty bombproof basically.
Young enough to still be improving so should be even better this season than last. Goes on any ground from heavy to good-to-form, hurdles fluently, travels well and finds plenty off the birdle, stays 2 1/2 miles and has the best trainer. Pretty bombproof basically.
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Agreed it's nice to look for an angle or a big price but buveur dair and faugheen should he make it are a cut a above the rest,
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Can't disagree with Buveur D'air at all. It's a very weak division at present. No 4/1 available anymore.
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Had another look and although I still can't see past Buveur D'air, the one at a price I like is Mount Mews at 40/1.
It is speculative, butI think he's better than the Aintree run, however it is possible that's how good he is. Malcolm Jefferson said in an interview previously that he would start off in the Fighting Fifth and would train him as a Champion Hurdler if as they believed he was good enough. I suppose they'll have a better idea after the Newcastle run. Anyway thought he was worth a dabble as can see this being a smallish field come March. |
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"Looks a three horse race even at this stage" But this can change so quickly over the next few months.
This time last year I imagine only one horse that finished in the first 4 places of the race was less than 20/1 in the market. |
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I think Melon will end up being the Mullins horse for this one.
His performance in the Supreme was pretty good and he was clearly strongly fancied before the off, he will only get better for racing too. Placed horses in the Supreme have a decent record in this (including last years winner), so Melon rates a decent e/w bet at the prices. |
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If looking for one at a price how about Divin Bere??
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Melon for me too Desomond O, all the rage for the Supreme this spring then didn't get prep run before the day, but ran amazingly for a once raced hurdler. Taken on for pace to and paid price but still close 2nd in grade 1 hurdle. 20s seems more than fair value, given the Champion Hurdle this year was pants, and the Neptune had nothing coming out of it for the 2018 Champion Hurdle..
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I agree that Melon is potentially open to plenty of improvement and time will tell on that, but not really convinced about last years Supreme. However, there are plenty worse 20/1 shots. That's for certain.
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Delighted with todays performance.
Still 7/2 which looks way to big in what is effectively a 2 horse race - time to go in again. |
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Melon should be winning well tomorrow if he’s a genuine Champion Hurdle contender
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Faugheen very weak the last 24 hours
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Looks like the Tent is on for another place.
Forget Melon imo, unless huge improvement appears in the next few months. |
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All the bookies have cut B D’Air today, not more bad news for Willie/Ricci hopefully
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A serious plunge on BVD on here too - only 13/8 now.
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Any genuine news on why this is happening?
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Haven't seen any. Think the market is just spooked after the Douvan news, and Faugheen's previous.
Although I would be a tad concerned if I were a Faugheen backer I must admit. |
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Yeh, so would I be!
I am really looking forward to these two in the Champion Hurdle.Would be such a shame if one did not make it,the race needs both. |
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Mullins has been exceptionally quiet about the well-being of Faugheen prior to his engagement in the Ryanair Hurdle on 29th Dec. No news is good news, I hope.
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Anyone who thought Melon had a chance of winning a CH, I think the way Beveur D'air laughed at the New One yesterday shows he hasn't.
May well be the best of the rest on the day though. I'd still have BAD over Faugheen, wish I had some 4's like a few at the top of this thread. |
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We can only hope both Faugheen and BDA stay fit until March; without either it looks a weak division
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If Faugheen impresses at Leopardstown later today he'll leapfrog BD in the betting market for sure. Agree, a weak renewal if Faugheen and/or BD is/are absent.
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I agree that Faugheen will go clear fav if he wins the egg and spoon race today. But taking 2/1 today on a fragile horse that is more like 50/50 to actually make the race is nuts. Backing both @1/2 to win the race is maybe the best play as long as one turns up it will long odds on against the current field.
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Faugheen at 2/1 against this lot shows enormous respect for BD, and probably 1/2 of that is a possiblility of a recurrence of an old injury, I assume; I'd make him 11/10 on merit alone for the CH, at best.
2/1 is fair given the quality of the field prior to Leopardstown later today. |
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Don't think their is anything between them on merit.Both won the race,and with identical times.
Just make BD fav on the strength that he is younger and a possible improver,plus has not had any injury problems. |
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Another Festival market turned upside down. As I have said for many years, it is evens to name a horse that will run at the Festival before the New Year never mind win.
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Faugheen bombed spectacularly in the Ryanair Hurdle - retirement beckons, I think.
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Yorkhill looking increasingly likely now, I believe.
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Very sad. Totally non event unless Melon learns to settle or Yorkhill goes back hurdling.
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Certainly looks Buveur D'airs to lose but after the loss of Douvan and Faugheen and the doubts over Altior, who would take less than 5/1 over any Festival candidate before March 10. I certainly won't be.
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Obviously a bit sad to see a horse fai like that (Istabraq and Kauto at least bid farewell at the festival) but given my antepost position I was not too disappointed.
 Given the inherent risks of antepsot betting I have laid off my stakes on BVD at 1.75 so fingers crossed he gets there and hoses up. The OP wasn't too bad - I believe!!  |
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no not bad from the op and right to lay off your stakes considering the hiccups that can and often do happen .
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I know every thread seems to have a Yorkhill comment but I genuinely believe he is the only threat to Beveur D'air.
Still don't think he jumps slick enough for a Queen Mum but no problem with his hurdling imo and has far more speed than stamina. Previous Neptune winners have great records in this and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he ended up in this now. That lets Mullins split Yorkhill, Min and UDS as well. Would still have Beveur D'air as strong fav, even if Yorkhill did line up though. Beveur D'air is easily the best but would I go anywhere near 1/2 before New Year, not a chance. All the stars aligning for MTOY to place again!! A pregnant Annie Power would most likely place in this as well |
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Still takers at 10 here for Faugheen, barmy army followers?
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Given the market fluctuations the week before Christmas I'm surprised there haven't been some posters suggesting that Mullin s/Ricci knew Faugheen would pull up today - at 1/6 Ricci could have made a fortune laying him???
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I'm a sucker for this kind of thing, but I'd be strongly tempted to start backing Yorkhill for this now.
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I personally don't think Yorkhill would have the pace to beat a slick BD in a CH myself. It takes a pretty big leap of faith when you look at the form book and the fact he's only really beaten Stayers.
I think they genuinely believe he can win a GC one day, and in another open year in that division, I'd be surprised if they don't fancy a go. |
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beuve dever going to be one of me accumulator bankers of the meeting
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Me too BF.
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If they were to tackle 2m with Yorkhill though, I wouldn't be surprised if it were the QMCC.
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