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delighted with that from Petit Mouchoir, jumped the first 2 poor but would imagine they'll hopefully jump him off in front at Cheltenham (as over hurdles) now they've got their prep into him
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Think they'll fill the same 2 places at Cheltenham anyway whichever way
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Yeah, lots of encouragement from PM, jumped 2 poorly but was given a very easy time by Russell and still finished close enough, today was a stepping stone.
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That was impressive from Footpad; he jumped slickly and never extended. I think the same result at the festival, and should be odds-on but surprised he is not after this demolition job. A good 1st run back from a training setback from Petit Mouchoir.
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Also thought the seconds run was full of promise, russell just sat there between 2 and 3 out and the horse came home full of beans..
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footpad will be overbet at cheltenham. to be fair to the horse he's looked pretty bomb-proof so far, but 2 miles at arkle pace on good ground will be a lot different than beating up small fields on soft ground in ireland. Of course he deserves to be favourite as you have to question the strength against him, but to me it would be madness to take evens, let alone odds-on as others are claiming.
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As an Arkle PM backer I'd like to have seen a little more, but Davy clearly was giving him a bit of a racecourse gallop style ride so not giving up on him just yet.
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Saint Calvados impressive today, it's a long time since I've seen a novice jump so fluently. Game on.
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5 year olds don't get any weight allowance in the race these days, no 5 year old has won it since the allowance was taken away (I think? don't quote me on that)
I was impressed, and I am tempted, but think I'll swerve |
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Was very good.
North Hill Harvey thrashed out of sight.....he werent at Sandown behind Sceau Royal. The Irish have competition with this one. |
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Looking a real tear up with the front three in the betting like to be handy, you can see sceau royal getting a lovely sit in behind, but is it good enough..
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8/1 Saint Calvados looks too big to me, will surely be rated 160+ after today's performance. Footpad looks a formidable foe, but SC should be 4/1 tops imo so I've gone in again (already on for smallish stakes @ 25/1). Shaping up to be a cracking race.
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Agree Mystic that was a cracking performance .I thought jumping the last hes going to be a 4/5 to 1 shot for Arkle mullered good horses.
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Agree completely with recent posts. Looks a real good one and just placed my second festival bet on him.
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if he wins off level weights as a 5yo then he is a seriously good horse, you are talking me into this one, he was laughing at them today. I know the stat around 5yos is bad but there can't have been many this good have a go
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A total of 102 runners in the last 10 renewals, only 5 of 'em were 5yo.
His trainer seems concerned - he must have said 'he's only 5!' about 10 times in his RUK interview but I think it's his way of trying to keep the lid on things. Hugely exciting horse... |
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Footpad is still very much the one to beat, but I think if Saint Calvados was with a bigger trainer he'd be a lot shorter. Reminds me a bit of Flemenstar in his novice chase season for some reason (the way he made it look effortless, jumped and travelled with ease, small fields, small trainer).
The 5 year old stat doesn't bother me to be honest. I'm not getting too carried away and he may well be one of those novices who don't quite live up to a run like that again, but willing to take the chance. Value in Footpad is gone, Petit Mouchoir tends to flatter to decieve on the big day and I think SC is better than Sceau Royale, so 8/1 is very fair imo |
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thanks for providing that stat ReaseHeath, it puts things in perspective. A 5yo should have a much better chance over the minimum trip than in a race like the RSA
Footpad has been mightily impressive, but getting a better price on Saint Calvados just to place seems a fair bet, taking 8/1 each way is tempting. My only concern is the course and the likely quicker ground, should I be worried? |
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I'm still happy to take on Footpad with Petit Mouchair and I think the 15/8 w/o Footpad is also appealing. Saint to me the ground is a worry
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one horse I can't have at all is Brain Power, unless something comes out of the woodwork it's a 4 horse race
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The majority of the big races won by Saint Des Saints progeny have been on softer ground or worse - however, the dam sire is Pistolet Bleu - best horse he produced was Sizing Europe who loved the spring ground.
Not sure that really helps much! |
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It all helps Rease.
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Re the ground for Saint Calvados, my approach is that unless there is a clear soft ground action, then I just assume they'll be able to go on better (not sure if that's the correct way, but it's just how I view it).
A lot of novices that come over from France do all their running/winning on really heavy ground; eg Long Run won all his races in soft, very soft or heavy, but first time on good ground over here and he smashed them in the Feltham. Same with the likes of Douvan and Vautour who'd raced almost exclusively in France and Ireland in soft ground but then as soon as they met good ground at Cheltenham they went to another level. Un de Sceaux was another 'who had to have soft ground' but has won twice at Cheltenham on good now. Suppose my point is that just because he's done his winning on soft, that is just because those happened to be the conditions on those days, not like they were avoiding good ground deliberately so I am giving him the benefit of the doubt that he'll act on good. He really is the joker in the pack imo - he could quite easily trail home in last, but at the same time he could easily smash them - makes for a really interesting race! Agree with the bloob that I wouldn't want to back a 5 yo in the RSA without a weight allowance, Arkle doesn't bother me too much. I know there were a lot of negatives about Bristol de Mai in the JLT because he was only fiver but ran a great race to finish second on ground he doesn't like and a trip too short, so his age didn't stop him. Really looking forward to this now! |
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Followed in at 8/1 NRNB yesterday. Any SC backers will be pleased to hear that Whittingham in interview said:
"His work rider at home thinks he'll be better on better ground. We'll see." Coleman said: "Better ground will be no problem to him." So if they're right, nothing to worry about... hopefully! |
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does look like a soft ground action though
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Absolutely has a clear soft ground action, if ground conditions at the festival are soft or worse he has a big chance, on good ground, both Footpad and Petit Mouchoir will be far too quick for him IMO.
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I think you are spot on Duffy. Hopefully the money keeps coming because Petit will become every more interesting
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Footpad is taking a walk, negative value induced or something untoward with him?
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Footpad very weak
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Market manipulation post a bookie preview yesterday, I think.
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Looks like it be 2.7 by tomorrow.
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The market is just repricing. Footpad was never an even money shot against this field. You have 2 other horses that like to make all so the fav won't be getting a soft lead. Fascinating tactical race in store.
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I’m not saying there’s nothing untoward (rumours of a bleed following work today - probably bollocks, mind), but Mal is definitely right. I’d already laid at that price, novice chasers at even money at The Festival, you just have to. That’s despite not fancying Sceau Royal around the park, although Saint Calvados looks very smart and may yet get it’s ground.
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Apparently a rumour Footpad could be rerouted to the JLT but the manager to his owners contacted Mullins and nothing of that sort had been confirmed. Footpad is sound, and his running plan along with that of Sceau Royal will be finalised next weekend.
He's shown he's a natural think and I think he'll blitz his opponents and be triumphant. |
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I meant he's shown he's a natural jumper.
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Regards Footpad, this was posted by 'domino14' and it was from a lad in the yard (apparently).
"Bled after a gallop this morning, worked well and connections not too worried, but vet will check him over this morning". Tbh do not know what to make of it with this stable. |
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Sceau Royal a N/R
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From the RP website:
Sceau Royal has suffered a setback and will miss the Racing Post Arkle Chase at Cheltenham. Simon Munir and Isaac Souede's chaser had been a leading fancy for the race ever since a Grade 1 victory under Daryl Jacob at Sandown last December. But trainer Alan King told the Racing Post on Monday: "He's had a slight setback which prevents me from preparing him for Cheltenham. "We'll review the situation in the next few days and decide whether he runs again this season or we put him away. You can't take a chance with a horse – if you push now, you may have no horse left." The trainer added: "I'm hugely disappointed for Simon and Isaac, for my team and for Daryl." |
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Sorry couldn't see this thread.
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Will Jacob switch to Footpad? Can't imagine Ruby being very happy but he is retained rider?
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