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Cheltenham Festival

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Samcro

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Replies: 719
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 01 Dec 18 14:44
Think its a very poor decision to stay over 2m and over hurdles. He's a staying chaser all day long.
By:
howarth31
When: 01 Dec 18 14:47
Has he schooled poorly over fences? Seems mad to stay over hurdles, wouldn’t fancy him to win a Grade 1 whether it be Leopardstown or Cheltenham over 2m.
By:
Autocue
When: 01 Dec 18 14:50
He was outclassed and if their aim was to test him against a first-time out Buveur D'air to see where they stood, then they're standing a very long way off. At least they can argue a fast pace at Cheltenham will suit him better (though he could have set a faster pace today if they really wanted to make it a test). Not sure what argument Tom George can put forward for his horse as it looked like the ground came into his favour. I think he'll be more depressed than Elliot as once again the horse put in a terrible jump at one hurdle on the home straight - I couldn't see him jump the others in the home straight as he was out of camera shot.
By:
jedi sophie
When: 01 Dec 18 16:18
Connections need there head read,truly bonkers..
By:
irishone
When: 01 Dec 18 20:51
hang on a minute there lads
You cant compare a gosforth run in december  to a cheltenham run in march
Gordon has any number of pacemakers to get the stiff gallop
Samcro needs over two miles
Bd wont get a lead like he got today at cheltenham
Write samcro off at your peril
By:
Fashion Fever
When: 01 Dec 18 20:54
irishone your in the wrong game mate if you think that

samcro has no chance of winning a champion hurdle
By:
HaylingBilly
When: 01 Dec 18 21:09
irishone - you're bonkers. Seriously. Get your Mum to put you to bed with an aspirin. Samcro is not a 2mile hurdler.  Surely it's a joke.
By:
sewter lives again
When: 01 Dec 18 21:53
wouldn't write off SB purely on one run
By:
HaylingBilly
When: 01 Dec 18 22:27
I think you can definitely write SB off for Champion Hurdle 2019. 3 of the top 4 in the betting ran today in the Fighting Fifth and BVD won in an absolute canter when not fit. Only Laurina can stop him winning 3 CH's on the trot. Not a chance in my opinion.
By:
duffy
When: 01 Dec 18 23:38
A fast pace is just what BD needs too, within the panthenon of CH winners he is not a speed merchant winner of the race.
By:
duffy
When: 01 Dec 18 23:40
He was impressive today, but he ran away from a 3 mile chaser..didn't he?? It's Samcro's faltering reputation that is marking the performance up.
By:
cyclops
When: 02 Dec 18 08:47
"He hasn't become a poor horse overnight, but he certainly did not look like a 2 mile hurdler. Jumped ok, but not with the slickness needed. 2 miles on good ground against good horses is surely not what he wants.

Elliott said the Morgiana comes next. If he were mine, I'd be schooling him over fences and forgetting all about hurdling. He's rising 7 and you wouldn't want to get too deep into the season and then change tack with a horse this good.

Hurdling looked a puzzling decision - it looks even stranger if they persevere on today's evidence".

That's what I wrote after the Down Royal race and it can be repeated, along with the observation that he was embarrassingly exposed for lack of pace by Buveur on ground which should have suited.

Gigginstown have two O'Leary egos pulling the strings and they make some mistakes. Don Cossack running in the Ryanair, before thrashing two of the Gold Cup principals at Punchestown was one. I suspect Elliott's heart is not in this Champion Hurdle campaign and there must be a question as to whether they will prevent Samcro from achieving what he should. Reminds me of French Holly, a horse born for fences, who stayed over hurdles far too long and spent his time running behind Istabraq, having won the 2m 5f novice at the festival in a canter. (It was rumoured that the owner was against him jumping fences).

Samcro has had an extraordinary fall from grace since Cheltenham and connections seem to have boxed themselves into a corner.

As for impossible123 - "Which Cheltenham race in March will he go after tomorrow? JLT or RSA? The Arkle could be a bit too quick for him, I think"..........read the tea leaves!
By:
buddeliea
When: 02 Dec 18 08:52
Funny how sometimes we get a horse that is built up so much by connections.....in particular some of those that have ridden him,that he can do no wrong,even when he does!!
That's 2 average at best performances now,yet still some think hes the 2nd coming!!
He was far from looking like a champion Hurdler in his race behind Bedrock,yet he was still backed into fav against the 2 time champion hurdler.
Now hes just got laughed at by BD,i think its time those that thought/think Samcro the best since sliced bread need to wake up.
His connections certainly need to,otherwise they are in danger of ruining the horse.
They need to accept hes not a 2m hurdler at the top level as evidence shows,and find his optimum,whether that's as a staying hurdler or a chaser.
By:
irishone
When: 02 Dec 18 10:25
Samcro shouldnt be underestimated lads, im not waxing lyrical about him and never have, but write him off at you peril. Never forget chesnuts are dodgy you dont know what you are going to get each day .
Bd is a fantastic horse, but melon got to him and watch Bd  flatten the last yesterday. Given different conditions going wise ,track wise and tactics wise who can say what can happen. Just a word of caution in a similar way hendo let out before yesterdays race.
By:
buddeliea
When: 02 Dec 18 10:36
I have seen plenty of Champion Hurdlers in my time,and Samcro just don't look like one to me.
The evidence on the track this season backs that up imo.
I would not write Samcro off completely,just as a 2m hurdler at the top level.
Once they find out his optimum,we can then judge the horse fairly.
At the moment imo the horse is not being placed in the races that would bring out the best in him.
By:
Autocue
When: 02 Dec 18 11:05
It was odd listening to Elliot after the race. Basically he said they'd stick to the champion hurdle route as it was nice having a day at the races to watch a good horse like Buveur D'Air. What on earth is going on there? We all know how competitive he is. He had five-timers at lowly Perth twice during the summer for example. That is not the real Elliot talking. Looks like the O'Leary's have him by the balls.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 02 Dec 18 11:43
there is something puzzling me after yesterdays race and elliots comments afterwards ,smoke and mirrors come to mind ,it looks obvious to most that samcro cannot beat bd over 2m .....so why persist a pointless exercise ? what i do know is that elliot knows much more than any of us or the racing media of his horses ability and despite what my eyes tell me if he thinks its worthwhile aiming samcro at the champion hurdle then at double figga odds he could be a bet at some stage, also worthwhile remembering that hurricane fly thumped  jeski in the trials over in ireland all winter and jeski reversed the form in the champion in march  so it can be done . also melon only has a neck to find on beavair  and he is also double figga odds and we dont know what would have happened had they both completed in that race in ireland . at the prices melon looks decent value imo and have backed him at 10s + along with bedrock at around 50s no harm having 2 at biggish prices running for ya  against the fav .
By:
buddeliea
When: 02 Dec 18 11:53
The day I back horses cos of connections,rather than form and my eyes,is the day I give up.
I don't care what Elliot or indeed any of the jockeys that have rode Samcro say, I have seen the proper evidence on the race track.
Until I see evidence that this horse has improved over 2m sufficiently to stand any chance in a Champion Hurdle I simply cannot part with my cash,whatever the price.
Samcro looks a stayer,he beat stayers in the Ballymore,and from what I have seen of him thus far,thats where he needs to be to win races.
His trainer can say what he likes.
By:
irishone
When: 02 Dec 18 12:00
Yes that is how I feel Bud. Always had him down as a stayer, he balloons plenty of hurdles but that doesn't make him a chaser.
Comparing Fighting Fifth Newcastle December runs to Champion Hurdle Cheltenham March runs is also misplaced in my opinion.
Apart from Punjabi and BD and comedy of errors …. who else did the double ? , think you'd have to go back a good few years. Although I can remember Sea Pigeon winning it !
By:
irishone
When: 02 Dec 18 12:02
Kribensis done it as well I read , for Sir Michael
By:
impossible123
When: 02 Dec 18 12:32
I hope we are discussing the merits of a proven 2x Champion Hurdle winner, and not the validity of a challenger whose potential and hype as a Champion Hurdle winner that have been truly busted yesterday in any way one would like to decipher.

BD made Samcro looked pedestrian when Geraghty switched on the turbo despite not fully wound-up. There is no conceivable way Samcro could avenge his drubbing yesterday, all things being equal. I think Samcro is 12/1 for a reason,...the main one being he might not even turn up for the race. Unless Melon improves significantly, and achieves consistency BD could achieve his best performance at Cheltenham in March 2019, I firmly believe.

There is little value now with over 3 months to go - he was 5/2 prior to yesterday. Then again Too Darn Hot is only 6/4 with race 5 months away. But a different betting proposition come day of the race if both show up.

Altior is a different betting proposition given his running style eg flat spots.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 02 Dec 18 12:34
in saying all that regarding samcro i have not and will not backed him ,just an observation .........melon is the one that is on my mind .
By:
irishone
When: 02 Dec 18 13:10
There are a few others over here that will relish taking BD on after melons performance last year.
14 weeks is a long time in racing.
By:
buddeliea
When: 02 Dec 18 14:03
Lets hope so Irish,we want as competitive race as we can get.
Personally I think we may well have a small field.
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 02 Dec 18 15:47
Champion Hurdle - Michael O’Leary / Gordon when asked in F/Hse today.

Davy - we have a lot of very “big guns” to come out yet, there are some great beginners chases to come in Ireland (when asked about Delta Work for JLT or RSA.
By:
irishone
When: 02 Dec 18 15:57
Yep
As he also said there are beginner chases over here that are grade ones
Followed by ted..... Long time until cheltenham
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 02 Dec 18 20:42
Davy - Samcro vs Buveur D'air - "won't beat him on the performances he's seen so far...BD was very impressive in Fighting Fifth...long way 'till March and a lot water to flow under the bridge...not at peak yet."
By:
impossible123
When: 02 Dec 18 22:56
..."long way till March and a lot of water to flow under the bridge...not at peak yet."

Connections must be deluded if they thought Samcro can beat Buveur D'Air fairly and squarely, all things being equal.
By:
cyclops
When: 03 Dec 18 08:44
I don't think they do, but feel Samcro could be second best (highly debatable on what we've seen so far) and that plenty can happen between now and then and, indeed, in the race itself. They'r clutching at those straws.

I'd have thought Apples Jade is probably a better 2 mile hurdler but they seem to only have the Mares in sight for her.
By:
baNjackst
When: 03 Dec 18 11:42
The facts about Samcro are he was a high class novice hurdler with a tall reputation to go with. His 2 races out of novice company have raised many questions,

firstly he went to Down Royal carrying a bit of condition and had to give 5 pound to Bedrock who beat him 1 and 1/2 lengths, he gave 8 pound to Sharjah in the same race and finished 5 lengths ahead of him. Sharjah has subsequently come out and won a G1 beating Faugheen.

Samcro's second run was to be in Ireland but owing to fast ground conditions it was decided not to risk it. The owner and trainer didn't shy away from travelling to England to take on the 2 time champion hurdle winner and best 2 mile novice of last season. The race was run to suit a speed merchant with bundles of race experience. Samcro was beaten by 8 lengths by dual champion hurdle winner. While visibly it looked a pasting one must consider Buveur D'air has run over obstacles 14 times losing only once in the supreme to stable companion Altior and Min. He is a true champion.

Buveur D'air himself is a special horse and probably the only horse ever to win his 2 novice chases and then to be reverted to hurdling.These decisions are normally reserved for failed chasers, A fantastic call by connections. Only the connections had the foresight and knowledge to come up with what is now one of the best decisions ever made about a horse. For that reason I wonder how some people believe they have better insight to Samcro than his own connections. For some to question the person paying the bills and the person who works with the horse day in day out. Is it not better that the 2nd or 3rd best at something not entitled to run against the best or should Buveur D'air be given a walkover like yesterdays race at leicester.

Finally Gigginstwon buy horses for one reason and one reason only "chasing" thats a known fact, they have no interest in hurdling unless its a stepping stone to winning chases, big chases. I for one believe Samcro is special and has proved he is special, how special the future will only tell but connections seem to be treating him different, and that might be a clue.
By:
impossible123
When: 03 Dec 18 12:22
All very well...Gigginstown and sportsmanship, etc. However, his run over hurdles and Champion Hurdle target this season was after a long deliberation by connections prior to the start of the season. But he'd been comprehensively beaten in the Fighting 5th (what more evidence does one need further?) beaten on conducive conditions eg fitter than Buveur D'Air and ground to suit. On saturday's showing Samcro might still need to up his game to beat Melon (if trained on) and running consistently.

Buveur D'Air was switched to fences in Feb after the issues regarding Faugheen; not a fluent jumper over fences either despite two wins as a novice chaser; joint fav for the JLT (I backed him too), but Hendo also had Top Notch and one other serious contender for the same race whose name escapes me presently.

Samcro is nothing special; he beat horses that were running in the wrong distance in the Neptune!

Without a shadow of a doubt, if I was the owner, I'd put Samcro over fences since last saturday (unless his introduction had been carped) and bin the aspiration of making a Champion Hurdle contender/winner of him; he's running over a distance too short; if (big IF) does become champion hurdler (by default), he'd be carped. Thus, nothing to gain for his effort.
By:
buddeliea
When: 03 Dec 18 12:31
Yep pretty much agree with all of that.

For a horse to be regarded as special, that horse needs to put in performances at the top level to merit that.
I have yet to see Samcro produce such a performance at the top level.
By:
baNjackst
When: 03 Dec 18 12:44
Any horse that wins a Grade 1 race of any description is a Special horse, a horse that continues to win G1s is very very special. Anyone who thinks otherwise really hasn't the first clue of racing.
By:
buddeliea
When: 03 Dec 18 12:46
I wonder how some people believe they have better insight to Samcro than his own connections. For some to question the person paying the bills and the person who works with the horse day in day out. Is it not better that the 2nd or 3rd best at something not entitled to run against the best or should Buveur D'air be given a walkover like yesterdays race at leicester.


Watching horses run on the track is the best way of forming an opinion on a horse, not listening to connections.
Samcro has not even got close to proving hes either special or indeed a credible Ch Hurdle contender in his 2 runs over 2m this season. We can all see his 2 races, don't need his connections saying anything to the contrary,its clearly there for all to see.
As For taking part in the Champion Hurdle,fine if that's what they want, we have had plenty of horses turn up in the race in the past without the form to challenge the main contenders.
Personally think it better for the horse and those associated with him to be given entries that suit his strengths and ability. So far they aint,as the evidence on the track suggests.
By:
baNjackst
When: 03 Dec 18 12:53
and how many horses of your own do you watch on the track?
By:
buddeliea
When: 03 Dec 18 12:55
???
By:
baNjackst
When: 03 Dec 18 13:08
when Katchit was all smashed up by harchibald in fighting 5th connections would have been stone mad to listen to race viewers telling them they couldnt win a champion hurdle or getting anywhere near an animal that never came off the bridle. Some people only see to the end of there own nose or the most recent ran race either or both. December and March can throw up different results. But easy speaking when the odds are stacked with you.
By:
duffy
When: 03 Dec 18 13:30
There are always exceptions, Binocular is another who got smashed up in this race and won the CH...hang on a minute there's a pattern here, let's get on the Fighting Fifth also ransGrin
By:
impossible123
When: 03 Dec 18 13:37
Must admit I was not into horseracing as enthusiastically until just a few years ago. Nevertheless, if memory serves was Harchibald not a " funny" character? Also, was Harchibald in the same vein as Beveur D'Air whose only "bad" run over hurdles was the injudicious ride given to him in The Supreme where he was held too far back against two horses of similar potential and ability eg Altior (could/would have won several Champion Hurdles if given the opportunities) and Min (went chasing too soon because of Faugheen)?

Samcro is nothing special over 2m hurdles, and has been proven so. Why the procrastination to go over fences then? Aiden made a wrong call with Saxon Warrior (Epsom/Irish Derby/commerce induced) unlike Gosden about Roaring Lion.

I think Buveur D'Air has probably improved post his wind-op or was inconvenienced prior to his 2nd Champion Hurdle triumph in 2018.
By:
duffy
When: 03 Dec 18 13:49
Harchibald never ran in the Supreme, he was beat in the CH, with differing views on what happened, he wasn't held up too far, the argument is whether Carberry waited too long before committing him as the horse was cruising, my view was that he did nothing wrong, if he went earlier he would have been beat further......there was carnage on here though at the timeLaugh
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