Cheltenham Festival
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Can see it going off at 2/1
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I wouldn't back it if I could get 10s.
2/1 would be a maximum lay bet for me. |
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I think 10,s would be ok to find out if he is the new Pegasus,not sure 7/2 is though.
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I expected his price to be cut by more than it did when the Moon Racer news broke though. A signficant opponent was removed from the race, but it didn't cause as big a ripple as I was expecting.
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I was very impressed with his debut and his flat form, looks a real trier. But backing him with so little experience goes against every rule in my book.
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But all the others are relatively inexperienced too, it is a novices after all! And Cheltenham is one of those courses a horse either takes to or doesn't.
Trust in the record of the trainers in this race, I say. Mullins/Ruby (not the 2nd string) and Henderson do well and if Ruby chooses Melon we can be assured that it's a very decent animal. Melon and Henderson's River Wylde to fight it out. |
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I can easily see it going off 2's, events of recent days are beginning to shift it that way. I think that as we approach race time the confidence from Mullins is going to ring louder in peoples ears and gather a momentum that is going to turn it into the first race Irish plunge. You can add on the likelihood that the opposition are weaker than you'd expect to see and he probably doesn't need to be Pegasus in any case to get the job done...all pointing to likely support coming IMO.
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if anymore drop out he might get a walkover!
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Ballyandy for me now with Movewiththetimes out. The Betfair Hurdle form looks strong especially with the front 2 pulling clear of a well-in Clyne. The Irish horses look like a mediocre bunch.
Wouldn't surprise me if Ballyandy starts Fav on the day. GL |
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I agree there is no horse the calibre of Altior this year but Melon's winning time was over 6s slower than that won by Petit Mouchoir later that day. I hope Melon will start at between 2/1 and 3/1, if so, an excellent lay in my opinion.
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Expect the Irish will pile into Melon on-course so could go off at 2/1
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People who think Melon is value at 7/2 are the same people who buy reduced bread from Lidl, oh 50% off!! then get it home and its full of mould.. No value in the 7/2 and no value in the half price bread!
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I can't see past Ballyandy and Bunk Off Early. One of those two wins, the other probabyl second. Melon might get third.
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Price based on home rep rather than form.
If you back it and he wins, good luck. ELGIN massively overpriced IMHO-has achieved far more on the course than MELON |
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At last nites preview at the racecourse
It emerged Melon has had 5 schooling runs Before his debut Tom Malone-bloodstick agent Said that was a major NEGATIVE |
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Got Melon and Altior as a bankers on day 1 with 3 out of C.H.,looked very impressive on his only start and is Ruby's pick,that'll do for me gl all.
C.H. picks are Yanworth,Buveur D'air and Brain Power. |
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With you Black Cat. Elgin 28/1 e/w much better than sticking big money on Melon who I fully expect to get squashed.
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Ruby rarely makes a mistake with his choice for this. If he's picked Melon, then be assured that Melon is good. Other than Nicky Henderson's, it's hard to see anything else being a Supreme Hurdle winner given the 5 year stats below. Mullins and Henderson just seem to have them right for this.
2016 - 2nd (Henderson's excellent Altior won) 2015 - Won (Henderson 4th) 2014 - Won (Henderson 2nd and 3rd) 2013 - Won (Henderson 2nd) 2012 - Unplaced (Henderson 2nd to McCains Cinders and Ashes) - Ruby rode for Paul Nicholls All the Mullins wins and 2nd were with Ruby riding. |
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At last nites preview at the racecourse
It emerged Melon has had 5 schooling runs Before his debut Tom Malone-bloodstick agent Said that was a major NEGATIVE Bloodstick agent. I like that. |
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Great run, just beaten by a better horse. They both pulled well clear of the rest.
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how did that get beat
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Winner is very good.
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