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unclepuncle
28 Feb 17 14:49
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Date Joined: 16 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 7,004 | Blogger: unclepuncle's blog
Only bookie I can find offering odds on the going is Joe C.

Very wet this week (surely be soft/heavy come the weekend) then a dry cold spell and then maybe rain next weekend so the 6/1 on soft looks massive to me - sadly they closed my account last year.Sad
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Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 28, 2017 3:07 PM GMT
Got no shops close byConfused
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y February 28, 2017 3:09 PM GMT
Good to Soft (is surely fav?), don't think it usually matters to Simon what it really is although he did call it Soft (Good to Soft in places) the year Champagne Fever won the Supreme Shocked
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y February 28, 2017 3:16 PM GMT
Just found the market, think it's a good shout Uncle and should be second fav ahead of 'Good' as even if it was good I have no doubt Claisse would add the "to Soft" after it as he proclaims that to be the perfect ground
Report Can't Catch Me February 28, 2017 3:17 PM GMT
Agreed... two runner race - Good to soft (fav) and Soft.
Report tommycockles February 28, 2017 6:20 PM GMT
uncle- Billy's also have this priced up (racing, specials) 5/1 soft
Report unclepuncle February 28, 2017 6:35 PM GMT
Thanks tommy
Report firstimevisor February 28, 2017 6:43 PM GMT
True thats a big price ok. 20-1 heavy ground might be worth a small interest too.
Report conditor February 28, 2017 6:51 PM GMT
Good to soft , it's tradition until after the first race , Wink
Report the bloob February 28, 2017 9:45 PM GMT
it will be nice to see the natural going prevail for a change, no need for the hosepipe
Report Cash Is King February 28, 2017 11:15 PM GMT
As others have already said, it'll officially be described as Good to Soft irrespective of what it actually is. Smug Smarmy Self-important Simon will make it clear that when he starts watering in the build up to the Festival, he's only doing so because he wants to ensure safe ground for the horses.
Report impossible123 March 1, 2017 9:29 AM GMT
Let's hope not too much watering, if any is needed as there is quite a bit of precipitation forecast for the next two weekends prior to Cheltenham week.
Report rogerthebutler March 1, 2017 11:02 AM GMT
Can I be first to mention the water table?

Thanks
Report Can't Catch Me March 1, 2017 11:04 AM GMT
Laugh
Report roger_roger March 1, 2017 2:02 PM GMT
6-1 for soft would be a cracking bet if it based upon the actual going. The problem is Claisse always aims for Good to Soft. So if its Soft its called Good to Soft or if its Good its called Good to Soft. How many times after the first race of the festival have we had a going change?

That said I still think 6-1 is worth a little dabble. On the hope he actually calls it honestly for once.
Report the bloob March 1, 2017 10:34 PM GMT
weather forecast has improved, doesn't look like much rain between now and the start
Report sc1883 March 2, 2017 7:38 AM GMT
Going described as Good to Soft (good in places) yesterday morning. Heavy rain tomorrow will probably turn it soft but if next week is mainly dry Good to soft looks nailed on once more on the opening day
Report unclepuncle March 2, 2017 9:51 AM GMT
Amazed it has good in the going description. Based on the recent weather I'd have assumed it was good to soft / soft in places right now.

Like you say even with a very wet couple of days coming up it is almost sure to dry up next week - he might even have to get his hose pipe out if it is dry all week.Shocked
Report buddeliea March 2, 2017 12:35 PM GMT
Rain forecast festival week according to the weather channel site.
Report unclepuncle March 2, 2017 12:52 PM GMT
Just watched the latest BBC forecast (updated at 12.32pm) and the rain tomorrow doesn't look anywhere near s bad it had done and then a showery weekend but dry most of next week.
Nobody really knows yet what it will be doing from the end of next week up to the start of the Festival, though most models are suggesting mainly dry and pretty chilly.
Might even snow.Shocked
Report unclepuncle March 5, 2017 8:38 PM GMT
Countryfile forecast for the coming week showed plenty of bands of rain coming in from the west all week long. Posibly drier forvthevfew days leading into the festival.

Be very interesting to see what the next turftrax readings are.

Assuming they have had the same levels of rain as we've had in Northampton for the last 3 days then given it's a two horse race the 9/2 on soft still looks bigger than it should be imo.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 March 5, 2017 8:53 PM GMT
Even if it was to be dry from Weds onwards and drying weather, that water table is going to be mighty high Mischief
Report geoff m March 5, 2017 10:37 PM GMT
Doubt it had about an inch less rain this Feb compared with 2016 when it was given good to soft  but was clearly good as Annie set a champion hurdle record.
Report geoff m March 5, 2017 10:38 PM GMT
The key will be the 2 or 3 days prior to the meeting
Report Cash Is King March 6, 2017 12:53 AM GMT
Geoff m is spot on. I remember a few years back the going was described as heavy with ten days or so to go before the start of the Festival.  A dry spell then ensued and by the end of day 2 or 3 Claisse was undertaking "selective watering" to ensure "safe" ground on the New Course.

if it stays dry in the run up then the going will be good to soft. Any period of sustained rainfall though will quickly turn conditions soft, particularly if it rains while they're racing.
Report impossible123 March 6, 2017 10:39 AM GMT
No apparent deluge forecast has been forecast between now and 17th March but light rain everyday from today according to www.myweather2.com; the weekend after the Festival more rain has been forecast it seems - very lucky.
Report unclepuncle March 6, 2017 1:20 PM GMT
Amazed the going is still good-to-soft this morning - they clearly didn't have half as much rain as we had in Northampton where it lashed down for hours on Friday and Sunday. I was hoping it would be soft all round this morning.Cry

Forecast to be some decent rain Tuesday into Wednesday but then the forecasts I can see suggest mainly dry with the odd shower upto Festival time.

No chance of soft going now and it might even be good ground come Tuesday if the sun comes out.
Report buddeliea March 6, 2017 1:24 PM GMT
Weather channel has some rain next weekend and on the Tuesday.
Would not give up yet uncle.
Report jokersjow March 6, 2017 1:55 PM GMT
Clerk of the course Simon Claisse does not expect any significant changes to ground conditions with the Cheltenham Festival now just over a week away.

The going is currently described as good to soft on the Old Course, which is used on the Tuesday and Wednesday, and good to soft, good in places on the New Course for Thursday and Friday.

"The forecast remains unsettled, with bits and pieces of rain coming in during the course of the next week amounting to somewhere between nine and 11 millimetres," said Claisse.

"I wouldn't expect much change in the going between now and the start of the Festival. For Festival week we're looking at temperatures of around 10C with little bits of rain here and there.

"But as I've said before, the weather has been so volatile this winter and forecasts change every day, so there is uncertainty, but nothing of concern.

"I haven't changed the ground from Sunday, so it's good to soft on the Old Course and good to soft, good in places on the New Course and the cross-country course.

"We're very happy with where we are. The course looks in fantastic shape."
Report wondersobright March 6, 2017 1:58 PM GMT
g/s 6.2 on the last going map given (1 march)

reported g/s today

periodic rain forecast between now and the festival ie not enough to soften it considerably or also for that place to do what it does best ie drain well

so looks like g/s which the clerk of the course will be oh so happy to call it

guaranteed g/s
Report unclepuncle March 6, 2017 2:02 PM GMT
It's almost pointless looking at the weather forecasts as the course always seems to miss the forecast rain - incredible that they have good in the going description when Southwell and Lingfield are both heavy and had to miss fences out today. Exeter and Wincanton are soft, heavy in places and Fontwell is waterlogged.

I give up.LaughLaugh
Report wondersobright March 6, 2017 2:31 PM GMT
it takes a prolonged period of (winter) rain to get HQ soft and 5.x on the stick

every year forecast rain is always overplayed and drainage is underestimated, its just a pity g/s is not an attractive price nowadays
Report rogerthebutler March 6, 2017 2:33 PM GMT
It does seem to get soft very quickly however if it rains during the Fez or even during the races themselves.
Report wondersobright March 6, 2017 2:36 PM GMT
we've had 2 fridays in the last few years where it has rained heavily and turned soft at the back end
but that is rain on top of opened up ground

this market is what he calls the ground after walking it before it has been raced on
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 March 6, 2017 4:08 PM GMT
The course itself is undulating. It almost sits around it's own valley thus drainage is natural never mind the man made drainage that was put in some years ago. It is of no surprise to me it dries out quicker than other courses.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 March 6, 2017 4:08 PM GMT
And why the X-country course which sits in the centre is nearly always softer than the new or old courses
Report Cash Is King March 6, 2017 4:08 PM GMT
Claisse's official going descriptions are notoriously unreliable. The good news is that it doesn't appear likely that he'll have an excuse to water the track before curtain up in 8 days' time. However unless there's a deluge immediately prior to racing, we're likely to be in the dark over the true state of the going until the Supreme has been run.
Report Cash Is King March 6, 2017 4:10 PM GMT
X Country course doesn't benefit from the drainage that's been installed on the racecourse proper.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 March 6, 2017 4:22 PM GMT
You'd think one would get used to people who wouldn't understand what it is you've written and post an obvious observation.
Report wondersobright March 6, 2017 4:26 PM GMT
correct about the drainage on the XC course

that said, it frequently rides quicker than the O&N courses do as it is watered much less than the main tracks are throughout the year (understandably its less of a priority, and is more complex to do as well)
Report ReaseHeath March 6, 2017 4:28 PM GMT

Mar 6, 2017 -- 4:08PM, SEATHESTARS....NO1 wrote:


And why the X-country course which sits in the centre is nearly always softer than the new or old courses


It's the other way around is n't it? Did n't they have to postpone the Cross Country race at the Open Meeting this season  and run it in January because the ground was too fast?

Report Cash Is King March 6, 2017 4:29 PM GMT
Thought you'd asked a question hence my reply. I didn't take you for a dumb ass. Don't take me for one.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 March 6, 2017 4:36 PM GMT
I wasn't.

But isn't it so the X-Country course sits lower down as in regards to the two other race tracks? So some of the water from rain drains to that track and also making it slower to dry out than the others also?

Not sure exactly how Cheltenham drains but i'm sure that course is lower and i took half an interest in geology after all the floodings we've had ie how it comes off hills into waterways rivers etc. Important piece of knowledge i think seeing as the government seem hell bent on building on natural flood plains, fields that are usually lakes etc in winter months?
Report wondersobright March 6, 2017 4:37 PM GMT
RH correct, its the opposite to what is logical

XC has worse drainage but generally rides quicker (especially after a dry spell)
Report ReaseHeath March 6, 2017 4:44 PM GMT
yes, wonders, the going stick readings are markedly higher too.

I know not the reasons why but assumed it was because it got more sunlight like the centre of my lawn due to big hedges or the pitch at Gresty Road where the shadow cast by the main stand stops Crewe Alexandra playing like Real Madrid down the right hand side during the winter. Happy
Report wondersobright March 6, 2017 4:57 PM GMT
haha, no, nothing to do with getting more sun

its just a function of the watering regimes of the O&N courses compared to the XC particularly during a dry spell

XC typically ends up 9+ after a prolonged spell of below average rainfall, it is basically left alone as the priority is to get the main tracks having sufficient give in the surface
Report ReaseHeath March 6, 2017 4:58 PM GMT
good to know, thanks
Report Cash Is King March 6, 2017 6:13 PM GMT
Claisse waters the old and new courses in the summer and autumn. Very difficult to water the X Country course so he doesn't bother. That's why the X Country course can ride fast early in the season. The relatively poor drainage starts to take effect in the winter and spring months.
Report wondersobright March 6, 2017 6:59 PM GMT
he will water the O&N courses at any time of year if they need it (they watered for the december meeting this ssn and he has watered extensively in the build up to the festival in many many years in the past)

I can assure you the XC is watered, but like I said before the main courses are (quite rightly) prioritised first
Report madman9 March 6, 2017 8:16 PM GMT
will be perfick good soft believe me
Report tommycockles March 7, 2017 1:25 PM GMT
Next Race Meeting 14/03/2017
Report Date 07/03/2017 12:35:00
Official Going Old course: Good to soft, soft in places Cross country: Good to soft, good in places New course: Good to soft, soft in places
GoingStick Old: 6.7 Cross country: 7.3 New: 6.8
Report wondersobright March 7, 2017 1:55 PM GMT
not much change, bits of soft ground appeared in the usual places (to be expected with the rain) but its mostly g/s all round

with the weather forecast from here and the stick reading I can't see anything other than nailed on g/s
in fact if they miss the worst of the rain I'd say good ground will be appearing around the top of the hill on the far side by tues
Report geoff m March 7, 2017 4:11 PM GMT
He will be watering @ weekendLaughLaughLaughLaugh
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