Fred Winter 2017

Certainly won't be 130 after bolting up by 20 at Ludlow! Seemed a little bit of a head scratcher that. Blow your mark for a juvenile hurdle on a Wednesday afternoon. Personally would also like to see it brush up its jumping after that.

That was a different horse jb? Master Blueeyes won today and presumably will be Triumph bound, which I think was the plan anyway. Long Call is the one I mentioned and thought he ran just as expected. Would think he should be set perfectly for around 130 after that.

I was told to watch his other one called Landsman. He's entered on Sunday in the Grade 1 Juvenile @ Leopardstown. Should be interesting to see what sort of mark they get for the FW. GL

Sorry CCM, I completely misread that and mistook your post for the idea of Mr. Blueyes in the Fred Winter! Apologies! Long afternoon at work!

Pretty nice shout CCM, hasn't really been missed by the antepost books though has he Will definitely keep a close on him as well as Landsman.

First port of call for me in this race is whatever Gordon Elliott has, but seems like his plan with Mega Fortune has been banjaxed by Phil Smith so might need a backup.

Mister Blueyes on 133 after Ludlow win.   Only raised 1lb.

Surprised at that.

that is hard to believe, especially given the manor of victory, that would definitely give Master Blueyes a great chance. One I'm also interested in is Coeur de Lion, maybe not the best performance last time but should get in with a low weight

Alan King quote in RP Weekender say Mister Blueyes likely to head direct to Aintree as he'll like the track.     That's a level weights race (I think).

Column submitted, whilst expecting the horse to get lumped?

Got to run in the Fred Winter at Chelters. He is thrown in off 133.

Master Blueeyes must be Triumph bound after that.

Nice boost for Long Call.

handicap mark will be shattered after that, very easy win, no real option now but Triumph.

A bit surprised they did that really. Was absolutely chucked in for this off 134!

Suppose it's not all about Cheltenham. A great win for connections today. Fair play to them

Divin Bere looks thrown in off 137 for this, but I'm sure the handicapper will up him retrospectively after Master Blueyes win yesterday.  He beat Master Blueyes giving him 4lb.  If you look at the 4th horse Templier that day, he was 28L behind Master Blueyes. Yesterday he was again 28L behind Master Blueyes off the same weights and the race comments are fairly similar also.

The point I'm making is that Divin Bere is 25/1 for the Triumph and Master Blueyes is now 10/1 and Divin Bere has already given him 4lb and beat him.

If the handicapper doesn't move Divin Bere up then lump on the 137 gift.  Master Blueyes has to go 144 as a min, I'd say 148ish. What rating does he make Divin Bere???

14/1 now, 12/1 nrnb Skybet

Wow, Master Blueyes has been raised 17lb to 150. Divin Bere who beat him giving 4lb has been raised 2lb to 139. I've had to have a bit more on. DB for Fred Winter at 10/1.

Also looks like he's Handicapped Templier (125) against the 150, so DB looks amazingly well in??

Am I reading this wrong?

@shockster re Divin Bere -- well-in but already higher than any previous winner of the Fred Winter, which is 133.

I'm a bit suspicious of the Master Blueyes hike to the extent it depends on Charli Parcs falling because he was beaten rather than being beaten and falling because he was having an off day, but I've not looked deeply into the matter.

The handicap weights are released tomorrow (Wednesday) iirc.

That's fair enough Ramruma, but think Master Blueyes has been rated against Evening Hush as Hcppr has a line for Defi there. These Handicaps can be very compressed also, so doubt DB will be giving lumps away.  139 looks very lenient to me and have to back my judgement. I thought he'd be handicapped out of this, but it's not the case.

I'm not saying there aren't any other well handicapped horses but, at 10/1 NRNB I'm still happy.

Just to add a perspective based on form in France, my concern about Divin Bere would be his flat form, which mainly consisted of moderate performances in 1M claiming races, ending up with a handicap rating equivalent to 60 in the UK. He may well be one of those horses transformed by hurdles, but not many prove to be 80lbs better than they were on the flat.

Potentially the best handicapped French import is Poker Play, who ran Charli Parcs to a length on debut and won his next start. Pipe paid a small fortune for him at the sales (£280,000) at Cheltenham and he'd only been in his new yard for five weeks when he was beaten by Fidux at Kempton. Only a guess on my part, but I suspect that was just a case of getting in the third run over hurdles required to qualify him for the Fred Winter and his defeat may well have been down to a lack of fitness after such a short period with Pipe.

The French handicapper had him on 141 when he was sent to the sales, so his current UK mark of 133 might make him another Sanctuaire. Typically for the stable, he's entered in everything but the cross country race, but this does seem the logical target for him. Of course it's never that simple, but based on his debut run, Charli Parcs would be in here on 135.

Some good support for Long Call the past few days. As low as 7/1 with Paddy now.

Gutted Master Blueyes revealed 133 rating was a shoe-in for Fred Winter race, will have to re-use my 16/1 NRNB Fred Winter bet, on Triumph now, though Mega Fortune and Defi Du Seul look decent opponents to winning the Juvy crown.

King said that he'd been so well in recent weeks they just had to see if they had a Triumph horse.

Anorak thanks for French info, of which I know nothing especially flat.

I just go on what I see and that's the way for me.

However, I've looked at Master Blueyes and (maybe just me) I'm not sure he has improved since he ran against Divin Bere at Huntingdon? He's now rated 150 OR and that seems roughly in the right area when you use Evening Hush as a yardstick. But at Huntingdon he had Templier 28L behind. The same horse ran at Kempton on Saturday. The result being Templier 28L behind. Has Templier amazingly improved an identical amount???? Probably not!  When Master Blueyes beat Long Call 18L was that a 150 performance? Well, maybe as Long Call beat Quids In a 124 OR horse 7L?

This, as we all know is not an exact science, but to me any way Divin Bere who beat Master Blueyes giving 4lb is thrown in off 139. I reckon Long Call will get 134/5 and I for one cannot see that being anywhere near enough weight to beat Divin Bere on a line through Master Blueyes. Dreamcatching looks an improver but will have to be.  Domperignon Du Lys is a problem as he's Hendo also???

That's my way of thinking anyhow and I'm on DB and hopeful of a return. I've also backed it with Master Blueyes for the Triumph.

One last note, Charlie Parcs IMO did not run his race Saturday and he needs serious thought wherever he appears.

I think you have to factor in that LC wasn't trying a jot last time though shockster!

Perhaps with Martin, but he showed his hand to an extent when beating Quids In.  He might be well in, but I'm certain Divin Bere is.

I suppose he had to show his hand at some point to get in though.

Agree with you though, Ive backed DB as well... But I do think this race is probably one where every single runner is probably very well in and being plotted. Its just a question of well in you are... might need to be a stone at least!

Time will tell CCM.  I've shown my hand

Not great news on the weight front shockster... think DB will probably go off top weight which could be an ask.

I expected that. What rating has Long Call got.  I haven't seen any yet?

From Henderson : Divin Bere has surprised me. Worked at Kempton yesterday and was good. Could get top weight in the Fred Winter; so goes Triumph. #WindOp

Thankfully NRNB, but have to find something else.

All here..

http://files.constantcontact.com/205...d47ac90c05.pdf

This is from Nicky Hendersons Stan James Column this week.   WHO KNOWS????

The DIVIN BERE situation is the most complex one in that I can see him finishing up with top weight in the Fred Winter because the top five will probably come out and defect to the Triumph, indeed I would pay the transport for the Irish horse, Mega Fortune, to run (in the Fred Winter) as it would keep the weights down! But I already know he’s heading the Triumph route, which makes sense, so we will have to shoulder top weight. That said, DIVIN BERE is arguably very well handicapped off 139 as if you take the Huntington form with MASTER BLUEYES into the equation we beat him giving 4lbs and the Handicapper now says he would have to give us 11lbs so potentially we’re 15lbs well in if they were to meet in a Handicap, but Kingy is going to run in the Triumph so we could be particularly well treated off this mark. DOMPERIGNON DU LYS will go for the Fred Winter and is in extremely good form too!

Good news for my FW bets there shockster thanks. Backed both of them Divin Bere and DDL at 10s morning the weights were published thinking they would shorten afterwards. They didn't but that is welcome piece of news

has to be more than likely that mega fortune and master blueyes go for triumph, possibly landofhopeandglory also (or kept for aintree??) and have no clue about magie du ma from the pipe stable but good possibility that dinaria des obeaux and divin bere end up as top weights in this....i'm on ddo but hoping it runs of 10-12 and not 11-10!

Divin bere shortening this afternoon. Any news out on his intended target?