Neptune 2017

Have just added William Henry to my portfolio for this race at 25/1, getting matched at shorter on here now this price surely is time limited. I see a certain successful sporting life ante-post thread likes him too

Neptune portfolio so far:
Robin Roe     £ew 10/1 1/4 1-2-3 bet365 NR
Neon Wolf          £ew 12/1 1/4 1-2-3
Messire Des Obeaux £ew 12/1 1/4 1-2-3
Finians Oscar      £ew 20/1 1/5 1-2-3 betvictor & 12/1 any race insurance
Saturnas           £ew 20/1 1/4 1-2-3 prob non runner
William Henry      £ew 25/1 1/4 1-2-3

Lovely 37% win book so far and have the fav and 2nd fav's and hopefully should have the 3rd 4th and 5th on the day lovely jubbly

I only have 3 of your selections (here and win only) at larger stakes but at 1/2 the odds with some already laid off; I also have 2 in trebles and accas for the festival and the 1000/2000 Guineas and Derby.

The Neptune is an extremely difficult race to profit from due to the large number of runners. Also, unless form lines are in abundance and targets virtually assured I do not select any horse from the Closutton stable either for obvious reasons; this year the RSA and the Gold Cup are races I'm more involved in.

I always check the markets on here, this is where i base my antepost cheltenham fez bets. Probably 75% bf markets 25% form is what i go on. If the markets are cloudy but the price is under threat i will check the graphs to see levels of stakes and amount traded for each if i still unsure i will check the price in the win any race market with billys and 365. It is unreal how many times a selection shortens significantly in a particular race market and gets forgotten about in them.
I have perfected my strategy over 10 years. Started with just £1-2 stakes i now stake what i can afford but much higher based on income which is respectfully low (twenties and thirties usual stakes) 95% of my bets are each way as you be surprised how much profits get boosted by place only returns.

Above i have Neon Wolf at 50s supreme but thats a very small stake of a fiver ew, now fully expected to go in the neptune i am glad i also did a any race bet with 365 at 8s with a free £20 bet i was offered after it won the last day.

Australia last year with festival returns, i've got vegas in mind this

It really is all about these markets! Markets rarely move without any substance. And when i see something significant, I ALWAYS POST IT IN THE RELEVANT THREAD ON HERE. I.E Faugheen/mullins and the way i thought he lied all the way through that interview the Sunday before he announced he and Min was out! Tried to ring on the line too and tell chapman what i thought about it only for my fecking phone to die 2 mins into the call !

STS
You really are meticulous and serious about betting, and I hope you win most times.
At the moment I do not have your experience (only a hobby in the past) hence only restricted to 2/3 selections on each selected race which I do utmost due diligence on and known info; I also like to think outside the box (regardless) ie seldom go with the flow, as the financial return is greater.

I do like Neon Wolf a lot as I think he is the best juvenile/novice hurdler seen out so far, and a near certainty (if he stays) in the Neptune even if Finian's Oscar (FO) turns up; I'm not convinced by his Tolworth victory over Capitaine who did not run to form due to riding plan; I also have a hunch Tizzard may run FO in the Supreme despite his weak market position there.

Bit unusual for me as I do like to look at bigger prices,but I think this year I think the front two in the market have it between them.
If Bacardys turns up in this I will have one at a nice price,so that would be a bonus,but really think one of the two will win it.

Saturnas did not run his race won by Bacardys, and as I'm not a fan of Mullins Bacardys is not for me, I'm afraid. However, I cannot disguise my high regard and expectation for Neon Wolf (with/out Finian's Oscar) here; I hope Messire Des Obeaux (MDO) can win given my antepost vouchers but Neon Wolf in trebles and accas would be a better result (financially).

I think Ballyandy will be Supreme bound given the beating he received from MDO getting 7lbs.

Don't be afraid,i do have Bacardys at three figures,and is an unexpected bonus.

Bacardys at 3 figures is only a win-win scenario, just lay off outlay and a free-ride is ensured; I do not think I've ever had a Mullins/Ricci in an antepost before their 1st run.

Looks like it's all systems go for Neon Wolf. Shortening everywhere and as low as he's ever been on the exchanges.

his form was franked to some extent by Elgin yesterday too.

Whereas the form of Finians Oscar was undermined a little by the performance of Capitaine.

You can't knock Finians Oscar as he keeps winning, but there is absolutely mo substance to his form.  He is woefully underpriced on what he has achieved so far.  If Neon Wolf does turn up he could go off very short.

Agree shockster. Finians Oscar is my biggest winner at the Festival now, but his form is looking pretty weak.

I believe the present price of Finian's Oscar (FO) is not form based eg the beating of others and Capitaine does not warrant his position at the head of this market, but because of the Tizzard and then Thistlecrack factor.
I'd not be surprised if connections of FO choose the Supreme over this race as it is less competitive (no Neon Wolf and Messire Des Obeaux) and easier to win.

Pretty sure Messire Des Obeaux won't be in ther thinking when choosing a target.

And Tizzard has said they are lraning towards the Neptune the last few days. The right decision for a 3 mile winning pointer imo.

I think it's also hard to argue its less competitive. Neon Wolf is in the Finians Oscar bracket. Loads of potential but completely unproven.

The Supreme could have hardened horses who have shown a better level of form, like Moon Racer and Ballyandy, as well as a few exciting types.

I think Neon Wolf won the same trial at Haydock that Peddlers Cross did before he won the Neptune.

Peddlers went straight from Haydock to Cheltenham too.

Gordon Elliot said tonight that Shattered Love will run in this and not the Mares Novice. 50/1 seems a very big price and has had her form franked at the weekend. Had a small play and interesting. Step up in trip looks a positive.

Neon Wolf is being backed - matched at 3.8 here - confirmation of target perhaps.

I think there is a bit of value in the price of Shattered Love in this - 25/1 nrnb, and this is confirmed as her target by Gordon Elliot.

High-class mare Shattered Love is set to take on the boys in the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

The daughter of **** impressed on her hurdling debut at Tipperary in October before finding the Willie Mullins-trained pair of Airlie Beach and Let's Dance too strong at Down Royal and Punchestown respectively.

Gordon Elliott's charge has since bolted up in a Listed race at Thurles and a Grade Three at Fairyhouse and while she has the option of taking on Airlie Beach and Let's Dance again in the Trull House Stud Mares' Novices' Hurdle at Prestbury Park, she is set to instead tackle the longer trip of the Neptune.

Elliott said: "Shattered Love might run in the Neptune, getting the mares' allowance.

"Her form isn't far off the best of the mares in Ireland. I just think the mares' novice race over two miles might be a bit short for her - they might take her off her feet early.

She is currently rated 141 and gets the 7lbs mares allowance, so effectively 148, which puts her on a par with Neon Wolf and Finians Oscar.  Placed in the G2 Mares Bumper at Aintree last year on only her second ever start.  I think the step up in trip that Elliot talks about is definitely needed as she does look like a thorough stayer, and has won a PTP in the past.  Despite that, she ran Lets Dance to a couple of lengths, who is now 147 and a likely odds on SP in the Mares Novice.

Based on what Neon Wolf and Finians Oscar have done, I'd want to take them on at the prices; especially when SL has a similar rating with the Mares allowance.  There are quite a few of her ahead of her in the betting who'll come out like Death Duty, Ballyandy, Augusta Kate, Melon, Lets Dance and Airlie Beach, so I can only see her price going one way, although she'll still be double figures come the off.

I do think NW and FO are the most likely winners, but not at their prices, so a few quid ew or even a go in the place market for SL will do for me.

Wellchief, didn't you see my post, 2 before yours. Shattered Love is definitely worth keeping onside.

Sorry mate, didn't see that! Great minds eh

50/1 is a brilliant price, I was made up with my 25's.

I like what you two are saying about Shattered Love(name reminds me of my life a couple of decades ago!!)

Taken 25 this morning.

Cheers lads.

I have to say I agree with Budd and you've also convinced me. Think 25 might be a bit too big.

Capitaine did not uphold Finian's Oscar form again - he was pulled-up today.

Taws didn't exactly uphold the FO form either at Donny.

What we don't know about Finions Oscar is what he's had left at the end of his races.  On all known form he needs to have had plenty left as nothing  he has beaten has made him look good.  He may be very good, but the form won't tell you that. He's not for me at all.

The Capitaine run today is irrelevant - a 5yo asked to run in a Graded race on heavy ground 7 days after his previous run in a similar contest - just Nicholls rolling the dice and trying to extend his lead in the trainers championship ahead of the festival.

Taws was disappointing but would probably prefer better ground.

Nevertheless it's hard to argue there is any substance to FO's form.

In other news, Mount Mews definitely one for Aintree, probably Mersey Novices Hurdle

Nicholls being greedy with Capitaine running him purely for the trainers championship.Owners are stupid for allowing him to do it

William Henry runs here with Burbank & Consul De Thaix runs either here or the Coral Cup from Nicky Henderson.

That's good news to me in regards William Henry backed him at 25s about 3 weeks ago and his price on here has gone one way since lol.

I still cant get my head round the price of Neon Wolf, He won one of the weakest trials around beating ELgin. Is it down to the lack of opposition ?

Me neither IS. It's mental. Everyone saying Finians Oscar has achieved nothing, but he has achieved a comparable amount for me. They've also suggested they think NW prefers softer ground which he isn't going to get.

I don't think it's a weak race either. Plenty have bought into the hype on this one I suppose. But I agree. Lay of the week at the prices.

Well looking at the race its difficult to see too much opposition aside from FO.
If you do fancy another you should be getting decent odds though.

Difficult to see opposition budd. Really?

Aside from FO...

Bacardys
Let's Dance
Monalee
Invitation Only
Willoughby Court
Messire Des Obeaux

Some very decent animals in there for my money. And I'd say most of those have better form than Neon Wolf as we stand.

Oops,how could I forget my Bacardys??

I did wonder mate

Easily the best form in the race.

Only fancy Bacardys out of that lot Catch.

Just had a bottle of strong beer!!!

But you make fair comment,we are talking about novices,and should not really dismiss that easily.

I'm hoping Brelade might do a Windsor Park - come back from a 3 length defeat in the Deloitte and win the Neptune, overcoming his previous conquerer (well you can only hope!) - Brelade is 5 times the price of Bacardys - I do think Bacardys would be better in the Bartlett myself.

Assuming he doesn't run in a handicap obviously!

Yeh,I'm still not sure myself Chief.....Neptune or AB,had similar odds on both races,so not bothered in that regard. But which race is best chance for horse?
I do think though that Death Duty is a solid fav and will prove hard to beat, maybe Mullins thinks the  same?

Bit of a head scratcher, the Deloitte.  Bacardys looked quite a bit outpaced at some points, but came into his own down the home straight.  I'm not sure whether that was because Bunk off Early was green and weak on only his second hurdles start or Bacardys is a strong stayer - probably a bit of both.

I suppose my only issue with Bacardys in the Neptune is that it might happen a bit too quick for him on good ground if he looked a bit outpaced over 18f on soft ground.

However, that could just be his running style and he always finds more?  We'll soon find out!

Bacardys would be my bet if the race was tomorrow, already backed Oscars. A horse that Usually wins the neptune has enough speed to win over 2 miles at cheltenham, get the impression tha Bacardys would struggle to do that but then again its down to the pace of the race. Personally i think Bacardys would win the albert but with the delloite form he has a decent enough chance in the neptune odds wise.

Anyone know the last time a Rossington trial winner won at Cheltenham and the one before that ?

i rarely post on forum these days - daughter takes my time up. However, I believe Neon Wolf is a future star fill the boots lads.

poh and enjoy it lads i know i will bar the champion hurdle rancid race this year

Saturnas @20s e/w is still a cracking bet for me

Shame that was taken out at the 5 day stage rl91


My list of non runners to 4 though i average that number every year.

Robin Roe     £ew 10/1 1/4 1-2-3 bet365 NR
Neon Wolf          £ew 12/1 1/4 1-2-3
Messire Des Obeaux £ew 12/1 1/4 1-2-3
Finians Oscar      £ew 20/1 1/5 1-2-3 betvictor & 12/1 any race insurance
Saturnas           £ew 20/1 1/4 1-2-3
William Henry      £ew 25/1 1/4 1-2-3

Finians Oscar out

Is that confirmed somewhere, markets do say so?

RP confirmed

Thanks

Unlucky backers. Didn't back him myself but a particularly brutal year for antepost punters.

Make that 5

ffs

Another one bites the dust.

Got to think this means Lets Dance will go here now

Another one bites the dust. Now my worst antepost book (for non-runners) ever.

Brelade taken out of all handicaps and only left in this, so assume he's an intended runner, so topped up a little more at 25 nrnb.

wellchief - I am with you on Brelade at the prices he is great value for money. Ran within 3 lengths of both Bacardys and Bunk Off Early in G1 recently and previously was beaten 2 lengths by a very well fancied Saturnas as a 4 year old in a G1. Prior to that won a 30 runner maiden which included Battleford. As a 5 year old he could have significant improvement to come.

Neon Wolf now "more than likely" to run in Neptune with ground drying and Finian's Oscar out according to Harry Fry. From Matt Chapman

shattered love has every chance in it with mares allowance and all

I have a feeling NW won't run in the Neptune. It will be either the supreme or skip Cheltenham. Ground will be too quick for him on Wednesday.

Just my view.

Forty

Everything connections said on tv heading towards Neptune

Just my view.

Forty

SOME DECENT FALL OF THE RAIN TOMORROW MAY HELP FOR NON  ... Watering for 4 days ..   . we watch crap races run on brick hard surfaces at  race parks with little water source  ......available ..?? ....to do a Cheltenham ..,  ? .. Nature should have a say in all of this ..  HOW MANY ?? Other courses enjoy so many entries for a rece park  in the STICKS SOMEWHERE .. Horse Learning curve .. >> nobody at the gaffes .. ?? .. 3 day event all top grades ..reduced to what we have now ..   had 4 days tickets never made it t0  all   4 days rain was a no show  from us and watched it unfold in a club across from big place started with a B ...S .....main town .. ............VERY SOCIABLE AS WELL .. Loved it more away from the bustle . that day to charge up batteries for trip home ............... ? ....to say one gets angry with all this runs  ,,,,not run ,,,, runs at AINTREE  ,,,,OR SOME OTHER GAFF   .BREAK TIME .. TILL TUESDAY  AT 1..30   NOW AN ARMCHAIR VIEWER .,.   THANK GOODNESS ..

May I suggest some sentences and paragraphs?

non attendance at school letting me down   ...   never mind  .. this is all a bit of a game .. we should enjoy ..   ..
SPORT OF KINGS ...  ......NO    .   CHARACTERS ,   left in the game to lighten our day .. A h  Well Onwards we go . ...  .   .........
will make an effort of sorts  .......THE REAL DEAL  ..........IS GETTING INVESTED FUNDS BACK ...  WITH A WEE PLUS ...??

Hope so :)

harder year on year more so with some dross races meaning little to working  people saving for a year to go ..  .
horses are the stars at the end of the day .. was due to go on Monday but my mate passed away .so won't be back again  now .   so pub or arm chair for me from now on ..

Best week of the year, hope it's good for you Jim.

Monday's dangerous anyway, can feel like you've already done a week by Tuesday morning!

been studying since 26 jan . good or bad ... used to start first week in december ..?? ..a bit Of something to take up my time  .. ..
mate was a great chanter on the mike and charmed birds of  the trees .. we used to have a great time four of us did go for years till our landlord passed on . but looked after  us really well and he was well know In that club I SPOKE ABOUT PASSES FOR THE WEEK .. GREAT STUFF .. COULD NOT DO ENOUGH FOR US .. ALAS ITS IN THE PAST .. . PLAN TO PUT UP A NAP A DAY SEE HOW MY TIPPING FARES .. AGAIN A BIT OF FUN ..  ..WEE MINUTE SILENCE FOR THOSE NO LONGER WITH US ,,.. BE FAIR  ..   /HOPE SOMEBODY DOES HAVE A  GOOD CHELTS .. BEST WISHES TO ALL .. / SEE I HAVE LOST STORY TELLER ... HELP ..

NEON WOLF confirmed for Neptune by Harry Fry.

Bunk off Early not doing the Deloitte form any good then for Bacardys and Brelade.

Nor Elgin for Neon Wolf in the supreme.