Cheltenham Festival

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14 Jan 17 17:41
Date Joined: 07 Sep 15
| Topic/replies: 21,990 | Blogger: impossible123's blog
Heading the betting is Finian's  Oscar, an impressive winner of the Tolworth Hurdle and as short as 4/1; the other probable main contenders are Messire Des Obeaux, Augusta Kate, Saturnas, Willoughby Court, Ballyandy, Baltazar Dallier, etc.
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Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 14, 2017 10:44 AM GMT
Have just added William Henry to my portfolio for this race at 25/1, getting matched at shorter on here now this price surely is time limited. I see a certain successful sporting life ante-post thread likes him too Crazy

Neptune portfolio so far:
Robin Roe     £ew 10/1 1/4 1-2-3 bet365 NRSad
Neon Wolf          £ew 12/1 1/4 1-2-3
Messire Des Obeaux £ew 12/1 1/4 1-2-3
Finians Oscar      £ew 20/1 1/5 1-2-3 betvictor & 12/1 any race insurance
Saturnas           £ew 20/1 1/4 1-2-3 prob non runnerSad
William Henry      £ew 25/1 1/4 1-2-3

Lovely 37% win book so far and have the fav and 2nd fav's and hopefully should have the 3rd 4th and 5th on the day lovely jubbly Excited
Report impossible123 February 14, 2017 1:28 PM GMT
I only have 3 of your selections (here and win only) at larger stakes but at 1/2 the odds with some already laid off; I also have 2 in trebles and accas for the festival and the 1000/2000 Guineas and Derby.

The Neptune is an extremely difficult race to profit from due to the large number of runners. Also, unless form lines are in abundance and targets virtually assured I do not select any horse from the Closutton stable either for obvious reasons; this year the RSA and the Gold Cup are races I'm more involved in.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 14, 2017 2:13 PM GMT
I always check the markets on here, this is where i base my antepost cheltenham fez bets. Probably 75% bf markets 25% form is what i go on. If the markets are cloudy but the price is under threat i will check the graphs to see levels of stakes and amount traded for each if i still unsure i will check the price in the win any race market with billys and 365. It is unreal how many times a selection shortens significantly in a particular race market and gets forgotten about in them.
I have perfected my strategy over 10 years. Started with just £1-2 stakes i now stake what i can afford but much higher based on income which is respectfully low (twenties and thirties usual stakes) 95% of my bets are each way as you be surprised how much profits get boosted by place only returns.

Above i have Neon Wolf at 50s supreme but thats a very small stake of a fiver ew, now fully expected to go in the neptune i am glad i also did a any race bet with 365 at 8s with a free £20 bet i was offered after it won the last day.

Australia last year with festival returns, i've got vegas in mind this Excited

It really is all about these markets! Markets rarely move without any substance. And when i see something significant, I ALWAYS POST IT IN THE RELEVANT THREAD ON HERE. I.E Faugheen/mullins and the way i thought he lied all the way through that interview the Sunday before he announced he and Min was out! Tried to ring on the line too and tell chapman what i thought about it only for my fecking phone to die 2 mins into the call Cry!
Report impossible123 February 14, 2017 5:39 PM GMT
You really are meticulous and serious about betting, and I hope you win most times.
At the moment I do not have your experience (only a hobby in the past) hence only restricted to 2/3 selections on each selected race which I do utmost due diligence on and known info; I also like to think outside the box (regardless) ie seldom go with the flow, as the financial return is greater.

I do like Neon Wolf a lot as I think he is the best juvenile/novice hurdler seen out so far, and a near certainty (if he stays) in the Neptune even if Finian's Oscar (FO) turns up; I'm not convinced by his Tolworth victory over Capitaine who did not run to form due to riding plan; I also have a hunch Tizzard may run FO in the Supreme despite his weak market position there.
Report buddeliea February 14, 2017 7:24 PM GMT
Bit unusual for me as I do like to look at bigger prices,but I think this year I think the front two in the market have it between them.
If Bacardys turns up in this I will have one at a nice price,so that would be a bonus,but really think one of the two will win it.
Report impossible123 February 17, 2017 11:43 AM GMT
Saturnas did not run his race won by Bacardys, and as I'm not a fan of Mullins Bacardys is not for me, I'm afraid. However, I cannot disguise my high regard and expectation for Neon Wolf (with/out Finian's Oscar) here; I hope Messire Des Obeaux (MDO) can win given my antepost vouchers but Neon Wolf in trebles and accas would be a better result (financially).

I think Ballyandy will be Supreme bound given the beating he received from MDO getting 7lbs.
Report buddeliea February 17, 2017 12:17 PM GMT
Don't be afraid,i do have Bacardys at three figures,and is an unexpected bonus.
Report impossible123 February 17, 2017 2:42 PM GMT
Bacardys at 3 figures is only a win-win scenario, just lay off outlay and a free-ride is ensured; I do not think I've ever had a Mullins/Ricci in an antepost before their 1st run.
Report shockster February 26, 2017 11:45 AM GMT
Looks like it's all systems go for Neon Wolf. Shortening everywhere and as low as he's ever been on the exchanges.
Report ReaseHeath February 26, 2017 11:49 AM GMT
his form was franked to some extent by Elgin yesterday too.

Whereas the form of Finians Oscar was undermined a little by the performance of Capitaine.
Report shockster February 26, 2017 11:58 AM GMT
You can't knock Finians Oscar as he keeps winning, but there is absolutely mo substance to his form.  He is woefully underpriced on what he has achieved so far.  If Neon Wolf does turn up he could go off very short.
Report Can't Catch Me February 26, 2017 1:23 PM GMT
Agree shockster. Finians Oscar is my biggest winner at the Festival now, but his form is looking pretty weak.
Report impossible123 February 26, 2017 3:18 PM GMT
I believe the present price of Finian's Oscar (FO) is not form based eg the beating of others and Capitaine does not warrant his position at the head of this market, but because of the Tizzard and then Thistlecrack factor.
I'd not be surprised if connections of FO choose the Supreme over this race as it is less competitive (no Neon Wolf and Messire Des Obeaux) and easier to win.
Report Can't Catch Me February 26, 2017 4:32 PM GMT
Pretty sure Messire Des Obeaux won't be in ther thinking when choosing a target.

And Tizzard has said they are lraning towards the Neptune the last few days. The right decision for a 3 mile winning pointer imo.
Report Can't Catch Me February 26, 2017 4:33 PM GMT
I think it's also hard to argue its less competitive. Neon Wolf is in the Finians Oscar bracket. Loads of potential but completely unproven.

The Supreme could have hardened horses who have shown a better level of form, like Moon Racer and Ballyandy, as well as a few exciting types.
Report wellchief February 26, 2017 6:15 PM GMT
I think Neon Wolf won the same trial at Haydock that Peddlers Cross did before he won the Neptune.

Peddlers went straight from Haydock to Cheltenham too.
Report shockster February 27, 2017 8:44 PM GMT
Gordon Elliot said tonight that Shattered Love will run in this and not the Mares Novice. 50/1 seems a very big price and has had her form franked at the weekend. Had a small play and interesting. Step up in trip looks a positive.
Report impossible123 March 1, 2017 9:12 AM GMT
Neon Wolf is being backed - matched at 3.8 here - confirmation of target perhaps.
Report wellchief March 4, 2017 8:05 AM GMT
I think there is a bit of value in the price of Shattered Love in this - 25/1 nrnb, and this is confirmed as her target by Gordon Elliot.

High-class mare Shattered Love is set to take on the boys in the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

The daughter of **** impressed on her hurdling debut at Tipperary in October before finding the Willie Mullins-trained pair of Airlie Beach and Let's Dance too strong at Down Royal and Punchestown respectively.

Gordon Elliott's charge has since bolted up in a Listed race at Thurles and a Grade Three at Fairyhouse and while she has the option of taking on Airlie Beach and Let's Dance again in the Trull House Stud Mares' Novices' Hurdle at Prestbury Park, she is set to instead tackle the longer trip of the Neptune.

Elliott said: "Shattered Love might run in the Neptune, getting the mares' allowance.

"Her form isn't far off the best of the mares in Ireland. I just think the mares' novice race over two miles might be a bit short for her - they might take her off her feet early.

She is currently rated 141 and gets the 7lbs mares allowance, so effectively 148, which puts her on a par with Neon Wolf and Finians Oscar.  Placed in the G2 Mares Bumper at Aintree last year on only her second ever start.  I think the step up in trip that Elliot talks about is definitely needed as she does look like a thorough stayer, and has won a PTP in the past.  Despite that, she ran Lets Dance to a couple of lengths, who is now 147 and a likely odds on SP in the Mares Novice.

Based on what Neon Wolf and Finians Oscar have done, I'd want to take them on at the prices; especially when SL has a similar rating with the Mares allowance.  There are quite a few of her ahead of her in the betting who'll come out like Death Duty, Ballyandy, Augusta Kate, Melon, Lets Dance and Airlie Beach, so I can only see her price going one way, although she'll still be double figures come the off.

I do think NW and FO are the most likely winners, but not at their prices, so a few quid ew or even a go in the place market for SL will do for me.
Report shockster March 4, 2017 9:06 AM GMT
Wellchief, didn't you see my post, 2 before yours. Shattered Love is definitely worth keeping onside.
Report wellchief March 4, 2017 9:14 AM GMT
Sorry mate, didn't see that! Great minds eh Laugh

50/1 is a brilliant price, I was made up with my 25's.
Report buddeliea March 4, 2017 10:19 AM GMT
I like what you two are saying about Shattered Love(name reminds me of my life a couple of decades ago!!)

Taken 25 this morning.

Cheers lads.
Report DontBeSakhee March 4, 2017 11:55 AM GMT
I have to say I agree with Budd and you've also convinced me. Think 25 might be a bit too big.
Report impossible123 March 4, 2017 3:57 PM GMT
Capitaine did not uphold Finian's Oscar form again - he was pulled-up today.
Report DontBeSakhee March 4, 2017 4:35 PM GMT
Taws didn't exactly uphold the FO form either at Donny.
Report shockster March 4, 2017 5:10 PM GMT
What we don't know about Finions Oscar is what he's had left at the end of his races.  On all known form he needs to have had plenty left as nothing  he has beaten has made him look good.  He may be very good, but the form won't tell you that. He's not for me at all.
Report ReaseHeath March 4, 2017 5:40 PM GMT
The Capitaine run today is irrelevant - a 5yo asked to run in a Graded race on heavy ground 7 days after his previous run in a similar contest - just Nicholls rolling the dice and trying to extend his lead in the trainers championship ahead of the festival.

Taws was disappointing but would probably prefer better ground.

Nevertheless it's hard to argue there is any substance to FO's form.

In other news, Mount Mews definitely one for Aintree, probably Mersey Novices Hurdle
Report corruptus in extremus March 5, 2017 11:58 AM GMT
Nicholls being greedy with Capitaine running him purely for the trainers championship.Owners are stupid for allowing him to do it
Report shockster March 8, 2017 7:24 PM GMT
William Henry runs here with Burbank & Consul De Thaix runs either here or the Coral Cup from Nicky Henderson.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 March 8, 2017 7:50 PM GMT
That's good news to me in regards William Henry backed him at 25s about 3 weeks ago and his price on here has gone one way since lol.
Report Ibrahima Sonko March 10, 2017 6:43 PM GMT
I still cant get my head round the price of Neon Wolf, He won one of the weakest trials around beating ELgin. Is it down to the lack of opposition ?
Report Can't Catch Me March 10, 2017 6:48 PM GMT
Me neither IS. It's mental. Everyone saying Finians Oscar has achieved nothing, but he has achieved a comparable amount for me. They've also suggested they think NW prefers softer ground which he isn't going to get.

I don't think it's a weak race either. Plenty have bought into the hype on this one I suppose. But I agree. Lay of the week at the prices.
Report buddeliea March 10, 2017 6:49 PM GMT
Well looking at the race its difficult to see too much opposition aside from FO.
If you do fancy another you should be getting decent odds though.
Report Can't Catch Me March 10, 2017 6:52 PM GMT
Difficult to see opposition budd. Really?

Aside from FO...

Let's Dance
Invitation Only
Willoughby Court
Messire Des Obeaux

Some very decent animals in there for my money. And I'd say most of those have better form than Neon Wolf as we stand.
Report buddeliea March 10, 2017 6:53 PM GMT
Oops,how could I forget my Bacardys??
Report Can't Catch Me March 10, 2017 6:54 PM GMT
I did wonder mate Laugh

Easily the best form in the race.
Report buddeliea March 10, 2017 6:54 PM GMT
Only fancy Bacardys out of that lot Catch.
Report buddeliea March 10, 2017 6:55 PM GMT
Just had a bottle of strong beer!!!
Report buddeliea March 10, 2017 6:57 PM GMT
But you make fair comment,we are talking about novices,and should not really dismiss that easily.
Report wellchief March 10, 2017 7:08 PM GMT
I'm hoping Brelade might do a Windsor Park - come back from a 3 length defeat in the Deloitte and win the Neptune, overcoming his previous conquerer (well you can only hope!) - Brelade is 5 times the price of Bacardys - I do think Bacardys would be better in the Bartlett myself.
Report wellchief March 10, 2017 7:11 PM GMT
Assuming he doesn't run in a handicap obviously!
Report buddeliea March 10, 2017 7:19 PM GMT
Yeh,I'm still not sure myself Chief.....Neptune or AB,had similar odds on both races,so not bothered in that regard. But which race is best chance for horse?
I do think though that Death Duty is a solid fav and will prove hard to beat, maybe Mullins thinks the  same?
Report wellchief March 10, 2017 7:24 PM GMT
Bit of a head scratcher, the Deloitte.  Bacardys looked quite a bit outpaced at some points, but came into his own down the home straight.  I'm not sure whether that was because Bunk off Early was green and weak on only his second hurdles start or Bacardys is a strong stayer - probably a bit of both.

I suppose my only issue with Bacardys in the Neptune is that it might happen a bit too quick for him on good ground if he looked a bit outpaced over 18f on soft ground.

However, that could just be his running style and he always finds more?  We'll soon find out!
Report Ibrahima Sonko March 10, 2017 8:20 PM GMT
Bacardys would be my bet if the race was tomorrow, already backed Oscars. A horse that Usually wins the neptune has enough speed to win over 2 miles at cheltenham, get the impression tha Bacardys would struggle to do that but then again its down to the pace of the race. Personally i think Bacardys would win the albert but with the delloite form he has a decent enough chance in the neptune odds wise.

Anyone know the last time a Rossington trial winner won at Cheltenham and the one before that ?
Report Howdi March 10, 2017 8:48 PM GMT
i rarely post on forum these days - daughter takes my time up. However, I believe Neon Wolf is a future star fill the boots lads.
Report Howdi March 10, 2017 8:49 PM GMT
poh and enjoy it lads i know i will bar the champion hurdle rancid race this Excitedyear
Report rl91 March 10, 2017 10:20 PM GMT
Saturnas @20s e/w is still a cracking bet for me
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 March 10, 2017 11:49 PM GMT
Shame that was taken out at the 5 day stage rl91

My list of non runners to 4 Sad though i average that number every year.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 March 10, 2017 11:50 PM GMT
Robin Roe     £ew 10/1 1/4 1-2-3 bet365 NR Cry
Neon Wolf          £ew 12/1 1/4 1-2-3 Excited
Messire Des Obeaux £ew 12/1 1/4 1-2-3 Plain
Finians Oscar      £ew 20/1 1/5 1-2-3 betvictor & 12/1 any race insurance Excited
Saturnas           £ew 20/1 1/4 1-2-3 Cry
William Henry      £ew 25/1 1/4 1-2-3 Plain
Report gutfeeling March 11, 2017 11:49 AM GMT
Finians Oscar out Cry
Report The RealDeal March 11, 2017 11:52 AM GMT
Is that confirmed somewhere, markets do say so?
Report OllieB March 11, 2017 11:56 AM GMT
RP confirmed
Report The RealDeal March 11, 2017 11:58 AM GMT
Report wellchief March 11, 2017 12:14 PM GMT
Unlucky backers. Didn't back him myself but a particularly brutal year for antepost punters.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 March 11, 2017 12:25 PM GMT
Make that 5 Cry
Report lewisham ranger March 11, 2017 12:37 PM GMT
ffs Cry
Report layingisthewayforward March 11, 2017 12:51 PM GMT
Another one bites the dust.
Report rl91 March 11, 2017 12:59 PM GMT
Got to think this means Lets Dance will go here now
Report maelduin March 11, 2017 1:37 PM GMT
Another one bites the dust. Now my worst antepost book (for non-runners) ever. Cry
Report wellchief March 11, 2017 1:40 PM GMT
Brelade taken out of all handicaps and only left in this, so assume he's an intended runner, so topped up a little more at 25 nrnb.
Report HaylingBilly March 11, 2017 2:17 PM GMT
wellchief - I am with you on Brelade at the prices he is great value for money. Ran within 3 lengths of both Bacardys and Bunk Off Early in G1 recently and previously was beaten 2 lengths by a very well fancied Saturnas as a 4 year old in a G1. Prior to that won a 30 runner maiden which included Battleford. As a 5 year old he could have significant improvement to come.
Report shockster March 11, 2017 5:08 PM GMT
Neon Wolf now "more than likely" to run in Neptune with ground drying and Finian's Oscar out according to Harry Fry. From Matt Chapman
Report kavvie March 11, 2017 5:56 PM GMT
shattered love has every chance in it with mares allowance and all
Report Forty March 11, 2017 6:46 PM GMT
I have a feeling NW won't run in the Neptune. It will be either the supreme or skip Cheltenham. Ground will be too quick for him on Wednesday.

Just my view.

Report Deptford March 11, 2017 6:54 PM GMT
Everything connections said on tv heading towards Neptune
Report Forty March 11, 2017 7:01 PM GMT
Just my view.

Report grumpyjim March 11, 2017 7:09 PM GMT
SOME DECENT FALL OF THE RAIN TOMORROW MAY HELP FOR NON  ... Watering for 4 days ..   . we watch crap races run on brick hard surfaces at  race parks with little water source  ......available ..?? do a Cheltenham ..,  ? .. Nature should have a say in all of this ..  HOW MANY ?? Other courses enjoy so many entries for a rece park  in the STICKS SOMEWHERE .. Horse Learning curve .. >> nobody at the gaffes .. ?? .. 3 day event all top grades ..reduced to what we have now ..   had 4 days tickets never made it t0  all   4 days rain was a no show  from us and watched it unfold in a club across from big place started with a B ...S .....main town .. ............VERY SOCIABLE AS WELL .. Loved it more away from the bustle . that day to charge up batteries for trip home ............... ? say one gets angry with all this runs  ,,,,not run ,,,, runs at AINTREE  ,,,,OR SOME OTHER GAFF   .BREAK TIME .. TILL TUESDAY  AT 1..30   NOW AN ARMCHAIR VIEWER .,.   THANK GOODNESS ..
Report marychain1 March 11, 2017 7:35 PM GMT
Report The RealDeal March 11, 2017 8:08 PM GMT
May I suggest some sentences and paragraphs?
Report grumpyjim March 11, 2017 8:32 PM GMT
non attendance at school letting me down   ...   never mind  .. this is all a bit of a game .. we should enjoy ..   ..
SPORT OF KINGS ...  ......NO    .   CHARACTERS ,   left in the game to lighten our day .. A h  Well Onwards we go . ...  .   .........
will make an effort of sorts  .......THE REAL DEAL  ..........IS GETTING INVESTED FUNDS BACK ...  WITH A WEE PLUS ...??
Report The RealDeal March 11, 2017 9:00 PM GMT
Hope so :)
Report grumpyjim March 11, 2017 10:03 PM GMT
harder year on year more so with some dross races meaning little to working  people saving for a year to go ..  .
horses are the stars at the end of the day .. was due to go on Monday but my mate passed away .so won't be back again  now .   so pub or arm chair for me from now on ..
Report The RealDeal March 11, 2017 10:25 PM GMT
Best week of the year, hope it's good for you Jim.

Monday's dangerous anyway, can feel like you've already done a week by Tuesday morning! Crazy
Report grumpyjim March 12, 2017 1:31 AM GMT
been studying since 26 jan . good or bad ... used to start first week in december ..?? ..a bit Of something to take up my time  .. ..
mate was a great chanter on the mike and charmed birds of  the trees .. we used to have a great time four of us did go for years till our landlord passed on . but looked after  us really well and he was well know In that club I SPOKE ABOUT PASSES FOR THE WEEK .. GREAT STUFF .. COULD NOT DO ENOUGH FOR US .. ALAS ITS IN THE PAST .. . PLAN TO PUT UP A NAP A DAY SEE HOW MY TIPPING FARES .. AGAIN A BIT OF FUN ..  ..WEE MINUTE SILENCE FOR THOSE NO LONGER WITH US ,,.. BE FAIR  ..   /HOPE SOMEBODY DOES HAVE A  GOOD CHELTS .. BEST WISHES TO ALL .. / SEE I HAVE LOST STORY TELLER ... HELP ..
Report shockster March 12, 2017 10:57 AM GMT
NEON WOLF confirmed for Neptune by Harry Fry.
Report wellchief March 14, 2017 1:48 PM GMT
Bunk off Early not doing the Deloitte form any good then for Bacardys and Brelade.
Report R.O.Gibraltar March 14, 2017 6:50 PM GMT
Nor Elgin for Neon Wolf in the supreme.
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