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Cheltenham Festival

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impossible123
14 Jan 17 17:41
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Date Joined: 07 Sep 15
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Heading the betting is Finian's  Oscar, an impressive winner of the Tolworth Hurdle and as short as 4/1; the other probable main contenders are Messire Des Obeaux, Augusta Kate, Saturnas, Willoughby Court, Ballyandy, Baltazar Dallier, etc.

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Replies: 77
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 14 Feb 17 10:44
Have just added William Henry to my portfolio for this race at 25/1, getting matched at shorter on here now this price surely is time limited. I see a certain successful sporting life ante-post thread likes him too Crazy

Neptune portfolio so far:
Robin Roe     £ew 10/1 1/4 1-2-3 bet365 NRSad
Neon Wolf          £ew 12/1 1/4 1-2-3
Messire Des Obeaux £ew 12/1 1/4 1-2-3
Finians Oscar      £ew 20/1 1/5 1-2-3 betvictor & 12/1 any race insurance
Saturnas           £ew 20/1 1/4 1-2-3 prob non runnerSad
William Henry      £ew 25/1 1/4 1-2-3

Lovely 37% win book so far and have the fav and 2nd fav's and hopefully should have the 3rd 4th and 5th on the day lovely jubbly Excited
By:
impossible123
When: 14 Feb 17 13:28
I only have 3 of your selections (here and win only) at larger stakes but at 1/2 the odds with some already laid off; I also have 2 in trebles and accas for the festival and the 1000/2000 Guineas and Derby.

The Neptune is an extremely difficult race to profit from due to the large number of runners. Also, unless form lines are in abundance and targets virtually assured I do not select any horse from the Closutton stable either for obvious reasons; this year the RSA and the Gold Cup are races I'm more involved in.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 14 Feb 17 14:13
I always check the markets on here, this is where i base my antepost cheltenham fez bets. Probably 75% bf markets 25% form is what i go on. If the markets are cloudy but the price is under threat i will check the graphs to see levels of stakes and amount traded for each if i still unsure i will check the price in the win any race market with billys and 365. It is unreal how many times a selection shortens significantly in a particular race market and gets forgotten about in them.
I have perfected my strategy over 10 years. Started with just £1-2 stakes i now stake what i can afford but much higher based on income which is respectfully low (twenties and thirties usual stakes) 95% of my bets are each way as you be surprised how much profits get boosted by place only returns.

Above i have Neon Wolf at 50s supreme but thats a very small stake of a fiver ew, now fully expected to go in the neptune i am glad i also did a any race bet with 365 at 8s with a free £20 bet i was offered after it won the last day.

Australia last year with festival returns, i've got vegas in mind this Excited

It really is all about these markets! Markets rarely move without any substance. And when i see something significant, I ALWAYS POST IT IN THE RELEVANT THREAD ON HERE. I.E Faugheen/mullins and the way i thought he lied all the way through that interview the Sunday before he announced he and Min was out! Tried to ring on the line too and tell chapman what i thought about it only for my fecking phone to die 2 mins into the call Cry!
By:
impossible123
When: 14 Feb 17 17:39
STS
You really are meticulous and serious about betting, and I hope you win most times.
At the moment I do not have your experience (only a hobby in the past) hence only restricted to 2/3 selections on each selected race which I do utmost due diligence on and known info; I also like to think outside the box (regardless) ie seldom go with the flow, as the financial return is greater.

I do like Neon Wolf a lot as I think he is the best juvenile/novice hurdler seen out so far, and a near certainty (if he stays) in the Neptune even if Finian's Oscar (FO) turns up; I'm not convinced by his Tolworth victory over Capitaine who did not run to form due to riding plan; I also have a hunch Tizzard may run FO in the Supreme despite his weak market position there.
By:
buddeliea
When: 14 Feb 17 19:24
Bit unusual for me as I do like to look at bigger prices,but I think this year I think the front two in the market have it between them.
If Bacardys turns up in this I will have one at a nice price,so that would be a bonus,but really think one of the two will win it.
By:
impossible123
When: 17 Feb 17 11:43
Saturnas did not run his race won by Bacardys, and as I'm not a fan of Mullins Bacardys is not for me, I'm afraid. However, I cannot disguise my high regard and expectation for Neon Wolf (with/out Finian's Oscar) here; I hope Messire Des Obeaux (MDO) can win given my antepost vouchers but Neon Wolf in trebles and accas would be a better result (financially).

I think Ballyandy will be Supreme bound given the beating he received from MDO getting 7lbs.
By:
buddeliea
When: 17 Feb 17 12:17
Don't be afraid,i do have Bacardys at three figures,and is an unexpected bonus.
By:
impossible123
When: 17 Feb 17 14:42
Bacardys at 3 figures is only a win-win scenario, just lay off outlay and a free-ride is ensured; I do not think I've ever had a Mullins/Ricci in an antepost before their 1st run.
By:
shockster
When: 26 Feb 17 11:45
Looks like it's all systems go for Neon Wolf. Shortening everywhere and as low as he's ever been on the exchanges.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 26 Feb 17 11:49
his form was franked to some extent by Elgin yesterday too.

Whereas the form of Finians Oscar was undermined a little by the performance of Capitaine.
By:
shockster
When: 26 Feb 17 11:58
You can't knock Finians Oscar as he keeps winning, but there is absolutely mo substance to his form.  He is woefully underpriced on what he has achieved so far.  If Neon Wolf does turn up he could go off very short.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 26 Feb 17 13:23
Agree shockster. Finians Oscar is my biggest winner at the Festival now, but his form is looking pretty weak.
By:
impossible123
When: 26 Feb 17 15:18
I believe the present price of Finian's Oscar (FO) is not form based eg the beating of others and Capitaine does not warrant his position at the head of this market, but because of the Tizzard and then Thistlecrack factor.
I'd not be surprised if connections of FO choose the Supreme over this race as it is less competitive (no Neon Wolf and Messire Des Obeaux) and easier to win.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 26 Feb 17 16:32
Pretty sure Messire Des Obeaux won't be in ther thinking when choosing a target.

And Tizzard has said they are lraning towards the Neptune the last few days. The right decision for a 3 mile winning pointer imo.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 26 Feb 17 16:33
I think it's also hard to argue its less competitive. Neon Wolf is in the Finians Oscar bracket. Loads of potential but completely unproven.

The Supreme could have hardened horses who have shown a better level of form, like Moon Racer and Ballyandy, as well as a few exciting types.
By:
wellchief
When: 26 Feb 17 18:15
I think Neon Wolf won the same trial at Haydock that Peddlers Cross did before he won the Neptune.

Peddlers went straight from Haydock to Cheltenham too.
By:
shockster
When: 27 Feb 17 20:44
Gordon Elliot said tonight that Shattered Love will run in this and not the Mares Novice. 50/1 seems a very big price and has had her form franked at the weekend. Had a small play and interesting. Step up in trip looks a positive.
By:
impossible123
When: 01 Mar 17 09:12
Neon Wolf is being backed - matched at 3.8 here - confirmation of target perhaps.
By:
wellchief
When: 04 Mar 17 08:05
I think there is a bit of value in the price of Shattered Love in this - 25/1 nrnb, and this is confirmed as her target by Gordon Elliot.

High-class mare Shattered Love is set to take on the boys in the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

The daughter of **** impressed on her hurdling debut at Tipperary in October before finding the Willie Mullins-trained pair of Airlie Beach and Let's Dance too strong at Down Royal and Punchestown respectively.

Gordon Elliott's charge has since bolted up in a Listed race at Thurles and a Grade Three at Fairyhouse and while she has the option of taking on Airlie Beach and Let's Dance again in the Trull House Stud Mares' Novices' Hurdle at Prestbury Park, she is set to instead tackle the longer trip of the Neptune.

Elliott said: "Shattered Love might run in the Neptune, getting the mares' allowance.

"Her form isn't far off the best of the mares in Ireland. I just think the mares' novice race over two miles might be a bit short for her - they might take her off her feet early.


She is currently rated 141 and gets the 7lbs mares allowance, so effectively 148, which puts her on a par with Neon Wolf and Finians Oscar.  Placed in the G2 Mares Bumper at Aintree last year on only her second ever start.  I think the step up in trip that Elliot talks about is definitely needed as she does look like a thorough stayer, and has won a PTP in the past.  Despite that, she ran Lets Dance to a couple of lengths, who is now 147 and a likely odds on SP in the Mares Novice.

Based on what Neon Wolf and Finians Oscar have done, I'd want to take them on at the prices; especially when SL has a similar rating with the Mares allowance.  There are quite a few of her ahead of her in the betting who'll come out like Death Duty, Ballyandy, Augusta Kate, Melon, Lets Dance and Airlie Beach, so I can only see her price going one way, although she'll still be double figures come the off.

I do think NW and FO are the most likely winners, but not at their prices, so a few quid ew or even a go in the place market for SL will do for me.
By:
shockster
When: 04 Mar 17 09:06
Wellchief, didn't you see my post, 2 before yours. Shattered Love is definitely worth keeping onside.
By:
wellchief
When: 04 Mar 17 09:14
Sorry mate, didn't see that! Great minds eh Laugh

50/1 is a brilliant price, I was made up with my 25's.
By:
buddeliea
When: 04 Mar 17 10:19
I like what you two are saying about Shattered Love(name reminds me of my life a couple of decades ago!!)

Taken 25 this morning.

Cheers lads.
By:
DontBeSakhee
When: 04 Mar 17 11:55
I have to say I agree with Budd and you've also convinced me. Think 25 might be a bit too big.
By:
impossible123
When: 04 Mar 17 15:57
Capitaine did not uphold Finian's Oscar form again - he was pulled-up today.
By:
DontBeSakhee
When: 04 Mar 17 16:35
Taws didn't exactly uphold the FO form either at Donny.
By:
shockster
When: 04 Mar 17 17:10
What we don't know about Finions Oscar is what he's had left at the end of his races.  On all known form he needs to have had plenty left as nothing  he has beaten has made him look good.  He may be very good, but the form won't tell you that. He's not for me at all.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 04 Mar 17 17:40
The Capitaine run today is irrelevant - a 5yo asked to run in a Graded race on heavy ground 7 days after his previous run in a similar contest - just Nicholls rolling the dice and trying to extend his lead in the trainers championship ahead of the festival.

Taws was disappointing but would probably prefer better ground.

Nevertheless it's hard to argue there is any substance to FO's form.

In other news, Mount Mews definitely one for Aintree, probably Mersey Novices Hurdle
By:
corruptus in extremus
When: 05 Mar 17 11:58
Nicholls being greedy with Capitaine running him purely for the trainers championship.Owners are stupid for allowing him to do it
By:
shockster
When: 08 Mar 17 19:24
William Henry runs here with Burbank & Consul De Thaix runs either here or the Coral Cup from Nicky Henderson.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 08 Mar 17 19:50
That's good news to me in regards William Henry backed him at 25s about 3 weeks ago and his price on here has gone one way since lol.
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 10 Mar 17 18:43
I still cant get my head round the price of Neon Wolf, He won one of the weakest trials around beating ELgin. Is it down to the lack of opposition ?
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 10 Mar 17 18:48
Me neither IS. It's mental. Everyone saying Finians Oscar has achieved nothing, but he has achieved a comparable amount for me. They've also suggested they think NW prefers softer ground which he isn't going to get.

I don't think it's a weak race either. Plenty have bought into the hype on this one I suppose. But I agree. Lay of the week at the prices.
By:
buddeliea
When: 10 Mar 17 18:49
Well looking at the race its difficult to see too much opposition aside from FO.
If you do fancy another you should be getting decent odds though.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 10 Mar 17 18:52
Difficult to see opposition budd. Really?

Aside from FO...

Bacardys
Let's Dance
Monalee
Invitation Only
Willoughby Court
Messire Des Obeaux

Some very decent animals in there for my money. And I'd say most of those have better form than Neon Wolf as we stand.
By:
buddeliea
When: 10 Mar 17 18:53
Oops,how could I forget my Bacardys??
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 10 Mar 17 18:54
I did wonder mate Laugh

Easily the best form in the race.
By:
buddeliea
When: 10 Mar 17 18:54
Only fancy Bacardys out of that lot Catch.
By:
buddeliea
When: 10 Mar 17 18:55
Laugh
Just had a bottle of strong beer!!!
By:
buddeliea
When: 10 Mar 17 18:57
But you make fair comment,we are talking about novices,and should not really dismiss that easily.
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