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advertised in saturdays post he tipping in this race today???? maybe shaneshill 20/1 hills ......cant get a post so not sure
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Shaneshill was outstayed by No More Heroes in the Navan Novice over 21f; he was also outstayed in the RSA by Blaklion looking the likely winner; he was thrashed by Thistlecrack over 3m; he again came looking the likely winner when crashed out in Ireland.
On previous known form Shaneshill doe not stay 3m.
On previous known form Shaneshill doe not stay 3m.
Who cares what he picks, its a load of old bawlixx.
Anyone who is completely guided by price when he tips a horse isnt worth listening to.
And by the way Shaneshill is a million to one as is Superb Story in the Champion.
Anyone who is completely guided by price when he tips a horse isnt worth listening to.
And by the way Shaneshill is a million to one as is Superb Story in the Champion.
well obviously the message was not for you mincer...so why bother posting on here..no one likes a smart arse
I backed superb Story for the Galway Hurdle when I heard Skelton (who I'd rate) talking Champion Hurdle, one of my more painful best of 2016.
What I find odd about is that when he talks about it, he just says 'everything went wrong', wish he would be a bit more specific as it has kind of thrown me off this horse and he won at Musselburgh last time.
What I find odd about is that when he talks about it, he just says 'everything went wrong', wish he would be a bit more specific as it has kind of thrown me off this horse and he won at Musselburgh last time.
If he'd just said he was over the top, that would've helped but he has never mentioned it, made me think it was something physical.
not sure about shaneshill ,think hes forced into a pick when not many people know whos gonna run..but superb story could be the real deal
I have not read the article that says Tom Segal has picked Shaneshill for the Stayers' Hurdle. If true, I'd like him to explain how he has come to that conclusion given Shaneshill's exploits in the Navan Novice (21f), RSA (24f) and then the Liverpool's Stayers' (24f) - the horse clearly does not stay 3m!
I've read it and it reads more like a pick because he's most likely to run in the race of those at bigger prices. He's tipped each way too as he did in the Champion Hurdle.
I think it's dogmatic to state Shaneshill does n't stay though - take the freakishly brilliant winner out of the Liverpool race and he wins 5 lengths plus he was only beaten 0.5 lengths in the RSA (though I accept No More Heroes and More of That had valid reasons for not performing better). It's a bit like saying Alpha Des Obeaux does n't stay because he was well beaten by Thistlecrack.
And albeit falling at the last lto might have been due to him getting tired, he looked like he would have finished closer to VVM than he did over 2.5 miles the previous time.
Segal's case is built on the fact that he has finished 2nd at each of the last three festivals - calling him the unluckiest horse in training - I don't think he was particularly unlucky in any of those races though, merely running into a better animal on the day on each occasion.I'd say there's every chance he'll run into at least one too good for him this year too.
I think it's dogmatic to state Shaneshill does n't stay though - take the freakishly brilliant winner out of the Liverpool race and he wins 5 lengths plus he was only beaten 0.5 lengths in the RSA (though I accept No More Heroes and More of That had valid reasons for not performing better). It's a bit like saying Alpha Des Obeaux does n't stay because he was well beaten by Thistlecrack.
And albeit falling at the last lto might have been due to him getting tired, he looked like he would have finished closer to VVM than he did over 2.5 miles the previous time.
Segal's case is built on the fact that he has finished 2nd at each of the last three festivals - calling him the unluckiest horse in training - I don't think he was particularly unlucky in any of those races though, merely running into a better animal on the day on each occasion.I'd say there's every chance he'll run into at least one too good for him this year too.
He gets it but he just has less intrinsic ability than those who have beaten him. He lacks scope over an obstacle as well so often has to be chased away from his hurdles, that can give the impression he is more tired than he is.
I think it's dogmatic to state Shaneshill does n't stay though
Rease, don't bother trying - I've tried to explain dozens of times that Shaneshill does in fact stay 3m, but it goes unheard. On the basis he lost those races, that means every horse that loses a race doesn't stay.
Rease, don't bother trying - I've tried to explain dozens of times that Shaneshill does in fact stay 3m, but it goes unheard. On the basis he lost those races, that means every horse that loses a race doesn't stay.
Shaneshill would probably win a run-of-the-mill 24f hurdle race on a small track in Ireland starting at long odd-on however, in a competitive Grade 1/2/3 race he just does not stay. How much more evidence than already in existence does one need for confirmation?
His connections missed winning the 2015 Neptune Hurdle with him when doing a late swap with Nichols Canyon (same ownership) to assist Douvan even though he was a near fav in the race. Of course, he was proven to be no match for Douvan in the end - Nichols Canyon beat Faugheen in the Morgiana; his subsequent placings were clearly not to the horse's best potential or ability either.
I'm afraid Shaneshill has been messed about by Mullins eg post 2nd in the Supreme, 1st target was the Arkle but poor jumping > JLT > then suddenly the RSA.
In most situations or fields, sometimes one has to be forceful or dogmatic, if necessary, to emphasise one's point or conviction to achieve one's goal when the evidence are clear for everyone to see. And in the case of Shaneshill staying 24f in a competitively run hurdle/chase is one of them, I'm afraid.
His connections missed winning the 2015 Neptune Hurdle with him when doing a late swap with Nichols Canyon (same ownership) to assist Douvan even though he was a near fav in the race. Of course, he was proven to be no match for Douvan in the end - Nichols Canyon beat Faugheen in the Morgiana; his subsequent placings were clearly not to the horse's best potential or ability either.
I'm afraid Shaneshill has been messed about by Mullins eg post 2nd in the Supreme, 1st target was the Arkle but poor jumping > JLT > then suddenly the RSA.
In most situations or fields, sometimes one has to be forceful or dogmatic, if necessary, to emphasise one's point or conviction to achieve one's goal when the evidence are clear for everyone to see. And in the case of Shaneshill staying 24f in a competitively run hurdle/chase is one of them, I'm afraid.
neill d - re what went wrong with Superb Story at Galway...
I love the horse (not for the Champion, mind you) and watched the Galways race closely. He was always in the wrong position, and got shunted wider and wider as the pace quickened. If my memory serves me correctly, he also missed a hurdle at a critical point. Galway is deceptively niche, in that a good position is massively important (it has a big draw bias too), and he just looked ill at ease, got bad luck in-running, and didn't get a particularly good ride either. I would, in this one instance, be fairly happy to simply strike that run from the record...
I love the horse (not for the Champion, mind you) and watched the Galways race closely. He was always in the wrong position, and got shunted wider and wider as the pace quickened. If my memory serves me correctly, he also missed a hurdle at a critical point. Galway is deceptively niche, in that a good position is massively important (it has a big draw bias too), and he just looked ill at ease, got bad luck in-running, and didn't get a particularly good ride either. I would, in this one instance, be fairly happy to simply strike that run from the record...
Re Shaneshill and his stamina for 3m...
I hear both sides of the argument. Hard to say he doesn't stay, but for me, he is more effective over slightly shorter, and, more pertinently, he probably does just lack the requisite class to win a G1 -- especially at that trip. Kind of reminds me of Smad Place and the argument about him and his stamina for the GC. He technically stays the trip fine, but not well enough at G1 level to win.
I think Luca Cumani said something along these lines a couple of decades ago when asked about one of his horse's chances of staying the Derby trip. He basically said that any horse can stay a mile and a half but it depends what it's up against as to how its stamina is perceived. As Wellchief said, if you remove Thistlecrack from the Aintree Hurdle, Shaneshill wins a G1 cosily at the trip. But in a better G1 he is, in my view, likely to finish weaker than some of the others. From a punting point of view, I think such horses in the blue-riband races might as well be called 'non-stayers'.
I hear both sides of the argument. Hard to say he doesn't stay, but for me, he is more effective over slightly shorter, and, more pertinently, he probably does just lack the requisite class to win a G1 -- especially at that trip. Kind of reminds me of Smad Place and the argument about him and his stamina for the GC. He technically stays the trip fine, but not well enough at G1 level to win.
I think Luca Cumani said something along these lines a couple of decades ago when asked about one of his horse's chances of staying the Derby trip. He basically said that any horse can stay a mile and a half but it depends what it's up against as to how its stamina is perceived. As Wellchief said, if you remove Thistlecrack from the Aintree Hurdle, Shaneshill wins a G1 cosily at the trip. But in a better G1 he is, in my view, likely to finish weaker than some of the others. From a punting point of view, I think such horses in the blue-riband races might as well be called 'non-stayers'.
I agree Tom, and that's the point I've been making about Shaneshill too. I don't think he really is a proper Grade 1 horse over any distance, but I definitely think he stays 3m - he was going pretty well when he fell in the VVM race a few weeks ago, and has crashed out at the final hurdle over 3m when travelling well previously - they didn't look tired falls to me.
Djakadam, for example, easily stays the Gold Cup trip, but over 3m he has won 1 race out of 9, and that was off 145 in a handicap when he was thrown in. To me, that is more to do with he might not have the class in the big 3m chases, but you could never doubt his staying ability.
The race with No More Heroes was soft ground when they were novices over 2 years ago now. No More Heroes turned out to be an excellent 3m chaser, so judging Shaneshill against NMH that day now is very harsh.
In a Stayers Hurdle that is looking particularly weak on paper, I think he'll last the trip well enough relative to the oppostion, to at least get in the first three - assuming he can stay on his feet at the last.
Djakadam, for example, easily stays the Gold Cup trip, but over 3m he has won 1 race out of 9, and that was off 145 in a handicap when he was thrown in. To me, that is more to do with he might not have the class in the big 3m chases, but you could never doubt his staying ability.
The race with No More Heroes was soft ground when they were novices over 2 years ago now. No More Heroes turned out to be an excellent 3m chaser, so judging Shaneshill against NMH that day now is very harsh.
In a Stayers Hurdle that is looking particularly weak on paper, I think he'll last the trip well enough relative to the oppostion, to at least get in the first three - assuming he can stay on his feet at the last.
^ agree - you could argue he did n't have the pace to win either the Supreme or the Champion Bumper.I doubt he'd win the Ryanair or Aintree Hurdle over the intermediate distance too.
All the evidence (to me at least) suggests he is very good but not quite top draw.He has run 7 times in the last 12 months over trips including 2m, 2m 4f and 3m - he has n't won any of them.
All the evidence (to me at least) suggests he is very good but not quite top draw.He has run 7 times in the last 12 months over trips including 2m, 2m 4f and 3m - he has n't won any of them.
To be headed after leading at the last in a 3m race could mean found one too good; to fall once at the last in a 3m race could be deemed unlucky; however, to fall twice at the last in a 3m race means the tank could be running close to empty or on fumes, to me any way.
Different trainer deals with the above differently eg Mullins would persevere whereas Hendo would do a u-turn. For instance, L'ami Serge who came to win the JLT and was in front after the last but ended up finishing 3rd instead.
I think Unowhatimeanharry is still being underestimated for what he's achieved so far. Let's hope he can put that to bed in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham on 28th Jan.
Different trainer deals with the above differently eg Mullins would persevere whereas Hendo would do a u-turn. For instance, L'ami Serge who came to win the JLT and was in front after the last but ended up finishing 3rd instead.
I think Unowhatimeanharry is still being underestimated for what he's achieved so far. Let's hope he can put that to bed in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham on 28th Jan.
Cole Harden been tipped up anywhere today?
Blue all over oddschecker.
Blue all over oddschecker.
Cheers Tyson.
Bit strange considering he has about 10 lengths to find with Harry off levels, and hasn't won a race since his own World Hurdle?
Bit strange considering he has about 10 lengths to find with Harry off levels, and hasn't won a race since his own World Hurdle?
PK. has put him up as an each way bet to nothing, in the hope that the ground is better. bringing him closer to 'harry'.I presume the bets are each way bandits. may have a valid point!
i quite like shaneshill and he certainly gets 3 miles imo in fact i was praying they would run him in the gold cup this season at a big price, i thought he might just be able to pick a place up, anyway they've stayed hurdling and he has a sneaky chance, however he is a tad quirky...he can certainly run well though
his win the other day when he ground it out on softer than ideal ground showed he is in really good form although i thought walsh gave his a strange ride that day and he for me is the outside bet if you are playing
his win the other day when he ground it out on softer than ideal ground showed he is in really good form although i thought walsh gave his a strange ride that day and he for me is the outside bet if you are playing
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