Melon - Supreme Novices Hurdle

Melon fav after that run? Wow JP must be seriously thinking about running one of his juveniles at this stage.

Supreme favorite after a nothing maiden. Was fairly impressive but would need to see him at least one for time before March before 5/1 is in any way justified. Priced up predominantly on connections that's it.

I never understand the dismay in the 'priced up based on connections', or 'what price would he be if trained by AN Other Trainer' lines of thought. Who the horse is trained by is hugely relevant when assessing the chance of a horse in any race, and in particular a race like the Supreme. Mullins has had winners of the race through his hands before, has a yard full of top class beasts, and so when noises are made about one being particularly good and win like Melon did on debut, the price must take into account that context. It would be absurd to price based purely on the form of his run there - the form of that run is not the only input to the horse's chance of winning the race.

It's for this reason that a 12l novice hurdle winner trained by Sheena West (no disrespect Sheena!) would not be assumed to have the same chance in a Supreme as a Nicholls 12l novice hurdle winner.

That's how I see it anyway

Absolutely spot on Duffy. That's how I see it too.

Nail and head Joist.

Sorry I meant Joist, not Duffy.

Glad I'm not alone! Although as the old Cheshire Cat said, "we're all mad here"

Another skewed and professionally irresponsible article from another racing journalist, a Mr Donn McClean, about Melon.

McClean: "Melon was very good at Leopardstown on sunday. He jumped really well for a novice, and he came clear of his rivals to post an impressive victory. He justified the hyped, lived up to the reputation that preceded him, and he galloped through the line."

"Impressive, came clear of his rival and justified the hyped": in a maiden; against 3rd raters eg 3rd horse started at 50/1 in his previous race. Melon is as short as 4/1 (sheer lunacy) for the Supreme after winning a poor maiden race.

I sincerely hope Melon has at least another race to try and justify his position at the top of the Supreme Hurdle betting (if he goes there); one thing for sure the Supreme Hurdle is looking increasingly a weaker race compare to the Triumph if the likes of Finian's Oscar, Neon Wolf, Defi Dy Seuil and Charli Parcs are absent - I do know the 1st two mentioned do not qualify.

betting suspended on here now

What are they doing with Cilaos Emery? I know it runs at Punchestown this week, if that wins, what a decision for Mullins et al.

It seems many punters are disagreeing that 4/1 is "sheer lunacy" given there's a load of blue on Oddschecker again and he's 3/1 in a place.

I take the point about the connections but you have to look at it in context - take a look at the starting prices of Champagne Fever,Douvan and Min (one of whom did n't actually win) and their profile in terms of Graded race wins before the big day and then tell me that 3/1 is value for a race 6 weeks away where you don't know runners, ground etc. 

Would n't be my idea of 'sheer lunacy' but can't see how he represents value just now, different story if you're on at 12s (I'm not )

Absolutely, 3/1 is certainly tight enough now I think but 11/2 was probably quite fair after the race. You say to look at the individual examples of Champagne Fever, Min, Douvan, and Vautour with respect to form versus price - but their subsequent Supreme exploits and the compounding factor of Mullins getting one for the race in the last 4 consecutive years, are precisely why Melon is so short with less substance to his form, and precisely why Melon's implied chance in the Supreme having only won a maiden hurdle is all the greater. They should know precisely what they have when they look at Melon with regard to a horse for the Supreme, and to ignore that context when pricing the horse is what's sheer lunacy!

I'm certainly not saying he's value any longer, but I can understand why he's the price he is.

I forgot Vautour - who started 7/2JF with the mighty Irving ( ) and had won a Grade 1 that Melon is n't even entered for (in fairness that might just be because it's too soon after his maiden).

Assuming he does n't run again (and he might), you'd think at least 3/1 would be available on the morning of the race - he could still be smashed into as if defeat is out of the question before the off though.

This sort of debate is why the Supreme is such a great race for me - it demands a lot of a punter in terms of assessing the value of form in the book vs potential and visual impression - I distinctly remember thinking it was n't much of a race when Altior beat Open Eagle at Kempton the Christmas before last and now I'm blown away by Altior every time I see him (but now everybody knows how good he is).

In terms of the compounding factor from an SP perspective Champagne Fever 5/1, Vautour 7/2, Douvan 2/1, Min 15/8 

Anybody know what their respective prices were at end Jan?

On the 3rd February 2014 Vatour was 10/1 for the Supreme. I know because I backed it and still have a photo of the slip

^
Amazing isn't it and just goes to show that sometimes you just can't tell!! We all know the quality that we saw from Vautour over the past couple of years and at the end of Jan he was still 10's with little hype attached.

Anyone know the last winner of supreme that ran under flat racing rules?

ebaziyan 2007 arcalis 2005 as well

Good point - Ebaziyan is the last one to start his career on the flat I reckon.

Of the others, at least Cinders and Ashes and Menorah have run on the flat under rules but not until after they won the Supreme

Thanks

Theres no debate for me, Hes a stupid price.

Champagne Fever was a massive price the morning of his win.

Went off 5/1 and paid for my festival

I was a poor student then so not saying much....

Champagne fever was also one of the best backed horses of that tuesday of the festival, money rained in for him about 30 mins before the off

He was a Pricewise horse that day also

He was 25s the night before on the exchange ;)

Indeed he was

The race is lacking depth so I am not surprised Melon is that short tbh

Im not that surprised either with the connections he has.
Still a stupid price based on what we have seen on the racecourse.

Still a stupid price based on what we have seen on the racecourse.

As David Brent said, "Well you're not looking at the whole pie, Jenny!"

Melon price seethers prepare to seethe further, surely going to shorten again now after Cilaos Emery chinned.

Who is seething? I think I've put forward logical and coherent articles as to why the price is too short.The compounding factor which you initially highlighted suggests it is too short. The profile of recent winners also suggests it is too short.

Mullins suggested in yesterday's Racing Post that Melon will go straight to the Festival now - I doubt that was the plan at the start of the season and lack of experience will surely count against him too. Which was the last once raced over hurdles winner of the Supreme?

I'm not naive enough to think I know more than Willie Mullins or that Melon can't win.

Equally I won't be beating myself up if he hacks up by 10 lengths at 5/4 and I'm not on.

If I think I'm overlooking something I'll go and have a read of the Min thread before last season's Supreme.

Why would Melon shorten on cilaos emery getting chinned, he'd be one of the yardsticks on the gallops that melon would have been beating to give the mullins camp the notion that he is something special.....it would have been better if cilaos hacked up and they came out and said that melon has him covered at home.

I was being facetious Rease

I don't believe the point about the last once-raced winner of the Supreme to be wholly relevant: you have to consider the relative strength of each Supreme when assessing the performance of those who were once-raced in it, imo, and this year's looks as poor as I can remember - it's the Supreme Novices Hurdle by name only, by the look of it so far: the strength in depth might well end up no deeper than any other novice hurdle at Cheltenham at any other point during the season, in which case you'd worry far less about possible inexperience.

To each their own innit

Duffy - I assume because the books see it as one less credible challenger. Can't fault your logic, but we should all know how the bookmakers work by now and there's more blue than white across Melon on Oddschecker as I type.

It might - but that's the sort of  assessment I prefer to make when all the runners are known and all the form is in the book.

But, as you say, more than one way to skin a cat.

No now bigger than 7/2 and as short as 11/4 - there you go, I'm seething

Joist

Yeah I know, I was going to make the point minus the bit about the price shortening

Charli Parcs cut to 5/1 with B2t365 now. Some serious talk going around about this horse now. AP had a spin on him recently and rumor has it he said he'd come out of retirement just to ride this one. Maybe he'll just forgo the 8lb allowance to give Melon a chance.

A dismal performance by Cilaos Emery at Punchestown against a 3rd rater, and another bubble busted. It is looking increasingly likely Melon could be the only "talking" horse left to assume the mantle in the Supreme thus his price contraction with so many having fallen at the wayside (so far).

Oakley Hall just winning has franked the form

Very weak on exchanges and drifting. If this is out I think it might finish me off :'(

Someone take my shoelaces off of me

Must admit it doesn't look good! Not only drifting others shortening around him

Good job I'm not a one bet and hope type the bookies love lol

there have been so many hotly fancied ante post bets that have been pulled out recently, that punters are starting to panic and anytime one drifts the forums seem to go into meltdown mode

could just be nothing

You can see why people would be worried with the stable in question's recent reputation in regards to Ante post markets.

He is a once run maiden winner at a group 1 winning price. Usually you have to be a very good deloutte winner to head the market...and he didn't even run there ! I wouldn't be suprised if ruby jumps on something else.

dismal performance from cilaos emery at punchestown? what plant are you on

Very positive vibes from the WPM Press Day regarding this fella. Seemed to suggest Ruby will definitely ride

Willie has spoken what he said and what he means = Ah well Melon definitely not running so. Ruby to ride Bunk Off Early or Crack Mome.

was trading at double figures for the majority of Saturday morning and afternoon

Willie's quote in full:

He’s a fine, strong, tall horse with plenty of ability, but is one that lacks experience. We are likely to have plenty of runners in the race including Bunk Off Early who has Grade 1 form, but based on homework, I’d say it will be an easy enough decision for Ruby to ride Melon. He has only had one run over hurdles, though we did train Fiveforthree to win the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle on just his second start over hurdles, so we’ve done it before albeit not in the Supreme. He has plenty of jumping experience at home and he seems a natural jumper too. I wouldn’t be worried about his lack of experience from a mental perspective either.

Fairly confident quote cantcatchme. It's definitely MIN 2016 territory

Ben Linfoot:

Let’s Get Fruity In The Supreme

I’ve gone on record as saying I couldn’t have Melon for the Sky Bet Supreme at the prices, but if there was one horse I wanted to back for the Festival today on the back of trainer vibes, it is the one named after a large fruit.

It was what Mullins said and how he said it.

This next sentence came after a thoughtful pause, when asked if it would be tough for Ruby Walsh to decide between maiden hurdle winner Melon and strong-travelling Grade One second Bunk Off Early in the Supreme.

“When you're looking at what Melon does at home, all the time, I'd say it will be an easy enough decision for Ruby.”

He also spoke of his fine pedigree, his impressive physique, how he thought ‘Champion Hurdle horse’ when he bought him.

Melon doesn’t have the experience. Mullins acknowledged that. Nothing since Flown in 1992 has won the Supreme on the back of one run.

But the reputation is certainly there. Mullins exuded the same kind of confidence he did with Vautour and Douvan prior to their wins in the Festival curtain raiser.

And if I don’t back him, I fear it will be me that will be the melon.

The comparison with Fiveforthree is a little disingenuous given that horse finished 5th, beaten only 4 lengths, in the Champion Bumper the year before.

Lightfoot is right though - 'all the time' are the three key words.

No explanation forthcoming for the drift over the w/e either (not that Mullins would necessarily have an explanation for that).

The fact he says it will be easy for Ruby to decide suggests he's well ahead of the others. And considering the race Bunk Off Early ran last time, and where he sits in the betting, it's hard not to sit up and take notice imo.

Yet moved out from 3/1 to 4/1 by Paddy today..

Be more inclined to bet Bunk off Early after hearing that......Just my take.

If HF decides to run Neon Wolf here instead of the neptune then this market is going to be tipped on its head.

Ben Linfoot: "I've gone on record as saying I couldn't have Melon for the Supreme Hurdle at the prices, but if there was one horse I like to back at the Festival today on the back of trainer vibes, it is the one named after a large fruit."

The above - a 180 degree turn - has come about after he's be mesmerised by the head honcho at Closutton stable post a visit there; this is the same racing professional who not so long ago tipped Cilaos Emery for the same race (I believe); Cilaos Emery has since bombed out badly in his next race.

Melon has not been seen since his only run and win against very mediocre horses - the 2nd in that race has again been comprehensively beaten in his next race since by horses that were well beaten previously.

I think whichever race Neon Wolf runs in at Cheltenham he'll be fav; Finian's Oscar, if running here, would be vying for favouritism too.

Melon has not been seen since his only run and win against very mediocre horses - the 2nd in that race has again been comprehensively beaten in his next race since by horses that were well beaten previously.

He could have won by 2 flights of hurdles should he have wished. Personally I think if your taking a 10 length demolition, with his head in his chest on the snaff as literal form, then its going to be a long couple of weeks for you. It wasn't what he beat, it was the way he beat them.

For what its worth- Gordon Elliott came out and said he wouldn't trust Broken Soul as far as he could throw him. This is the same horse which was half a length behind Anibale Fly and 2 behind Gurteen.

Yeah you're probably right impossible. Probably best to completely ignore what the most successful trainer of all time thinks about anything, and stick with your literal interpretation of the form book.

And the fact he works with all of the WPM novices every week, probably doesnt tell anyone anything. That one race really is the key here.

Based on history - especially where Cheltenham is concerned - anyone who places, or changes, a bet based on a Willie Mullins stable visit quote requires psychiatric help. He's playing with your mind !!! Trust me.

Haha... I don't base it all on what he says. But looking at each horse and trying to weigh it up myself.

I have gone with 3 in the race. Always bet three in Supreme to try and get me off to a flying start. Not always a roaring successful strategy but great when it comes off :

Bunk Off Early @ 14/1
Movewiththetimes @ 33/1
River Wylde @ 25/1

If I added one I think it would be Henderson's Beyond Conceit who I fancy will relish the tough battling uphill finish. Dare I go for four !!!

Great price on Movewiththetimes.

Beyond Conceit much more likely to run in the Neptune but might be worth a nrnb.

That just your opinion sageform or have they said that? He was too keen the last day and still won and I'd worry he would be way too keen in the Neptune, the Supreme I thought would be the perfect race for him as he should settle much better off the faster gallop

I think the going will determine final destination for Beyond Conceit. From Henderson "He goes in soft ground and if it came up soft then we can go two miles and if it isn’t then he can go two miles and five. I am going to sit down and have a serious look at the entries at the five-day stage. When you can pick between the two then you may as well have a look at the opposition in both".

If you beat Willie mullins you will back the winner. The guy is rewriting the history books. If he says that about MELON and he gets melon to the track in same shape as he was when those quotes were taken you would prefer to be with mullins than against mullins

Been given a rating of 153 after that one run

Would love to hear Phil Smith justify that one!

I thought he did quite well justifying it, as it wasn't a rating, it's an assessment as he isn't qualified for a mark as only ran once and that could easily be wrong which he also said.

Sorry yes I know its a guideline rating, but its still bonkers. How on earth could anyone justify it? Broken Soul 140? Only on the moon.

What did he say to justify it STS?

Ballyandy... who has some decent form in the book, and has just won the Betfair Hurdle has a rating of 147 btw.

Could anyone imagine Melon being asked to give him 6lb's if they ran in a Handicap tomorrow after winning one poor maiden in Ireland?

It's an assessment. Nothing more. He will be properly assessed after running the min' required times for a proper handicap mark. If thats a lot less than the 153, a lot more or the same then that will be made after the min' number of runs to qualify for a mark.

So basically he's given him a mark to enable him to run in the Supreme based on opinion and he obviously believes Broken Soul's mark be a genuine one. Your entitled to your opinion of course. Out of interest, what mark would you give BS? Who's rating is actually 130

I'd like to add, i don't normally look at form or ratings. It's just one's opinion against another's. 99% of my betting is based around the markets. It works to allow others do all the hard work and try to pinch prices from those bookmakers whom are too slow to cut.

I actually think there could be a small but valuable handicap in BS after looking quickly at his form. 4/11 for a race after Melon defeat was a laughable price, wish i new about it cos i'd of laid till cows come hom i think. Think the bookies were taking the pish there a little and he probably was a shade unlucky last time to be brought down by sound of his post race analysis.

STS. I know how assessments work mate. But it means if he was giving him a mark now, that's what it would be.

I think Broken Soul's 130 looks perfectly fair.

Broken Soul's highest ever RPR over hurdles was 126 15 months ago on his hurdling debut.

No one is saying that Melon might be a 153 horse or better in time but rationale is bonkers

Exactly ad. Simply from the vibes in the yard alone, you'd fancy Melon will get to be a 153 horse easily.

But its not up to Phil Smith to start factoring in hype. His 'assessment' is ridiculous to me.

153 youre twisting my melon man?

What do you reckon he should give him?

Well considering Ballyandy has just won the Betfair Hurdle and has been given a mark of 147, I don't think anyone could justify giving him as high.

Id have thought 140... maybe early 140's if you are feeling generous.

I'd fancy him getting 6lbs from ballyandy giving Melon 153 on pretty much hype alone is a bit much I agree, not far behind it is lumping up Ballyandy nigh on a stone for winning the worst betfair in living memory from a horse that didn't much want to go past.

If Ballyandy is being put into the "form horse" category then Melon's hype hasn't got to be too far adrift to be right in the mix IMO, I think Ballyandy is awful at 5/1 IMO.

Im a Melon backer. I think he could be special. I just think its wrong that the handicapper starts using hype to give assessments or ratings.

Im not a Ballyandy fan either, but he does have form in the book.

I havent seen the full list, just sure a tweet about it. But was he given Bunk Off Early? If Melon has 153, then BOE must be given something in the mid 160's imo.

I don't think Ballyandy's form is particularly good, beaten twice by MR, the second time comfortably enough, MDO beat him where he just looked slow, and as I say, the Betfair was a poor renewal IMO, I think Ballyandy is going to be just too slow, at the crucial point coming down the hill he'll get outpaced IMO, he'll probably stay on well enough but won't win...I'm trusting Willie, not blindly, but what we've got to remember is that in this Supreme the bar is not very high!! and Mullins in his assessment is understanding that.

duffy. I absolutely agree with all of that.

But thats not really the point Im making. We are talking about rating a horse that has won one p1ss poor Irish maiden hurdle higher than him! The horse he beat has run awfully since and the third home is rated 70!

Just seen he's 5lb clear of the rest of the field on ratings

I agree with that too.....perhaps Smith thinks their campaigning of him has been one big ruse, and they are really targeting the summer hurdle at Market Rasen in the summer....I 'll put a fooking stop to their games

Haha. Lets hope Smith is bang on anyway, and he is 5lb clear of the field!

Will be a nice start to my week if he is 5l clear at the line.

Totally agree CCM, absolutely ridiculous rating on based on god knows what. He may well prove to be up to the mark but how he can rate him that high on that one run is a joke

Can't Catch Me 09 Mar 17 16:28 Joined: 02 Apr 03 | Topic/replies: 24,714 | Blogger: Can't Catch Me's blog

Haha. Lets hope Smith is bang on anyway, and he is 5lb clear of the field!

Will be a nice start to my week if he is 5l clear at the line.




Being sat on a 12/1 voucher myself, and plenty of trades between 15 - 12 and then finally 8.4 on here so do i

But i still think people are getting carried away, it's not a rating, its a guess. He basically said as much on ask the handicapper.

Smiths words were to the effect of "he may well turn out to be that good, he maybe better, i may be way off"

Personally think he was wrong to publicise what rating he thought Melon would get. This thread would be a page light for certain

I'd be interested to see his workings. He's 2lbs lower than Vautour was

Bet a few poor Melon backers will log on tonight and see 40 odd new posts on this thread and be scared to open it for fear of bad news!

I think Ballyandy is going to be just too slow, at the crucial point coming down the hill he'll get outpaced IMO, he'll probably stay on well enough but won't win

duffy

you just described Al Ferof!! apart from the wont win bit.
And he had to get past Cue Card,Spirit Son and Sprinter Sacre.

A horse can get outpaced in a Supreme and still win.
And judging by some of the recent winners it can certainly help to stay pretty well........Al Ferof, Menorah , Champagne Fever, Vautour .

I've probably described countless others that haven't won too, there's always exceptions, they don't make it the norm though, however if the pace is a cut throat won where the ones in front are relatively out on their feet, he might win, I don't like him though and don't think his form looks good .

Fair enough. Was just pointing out Al Ferof as an example.

Personally struggling to find better form than the Moon Racer form.
Think if he turns up in this he will win,think he has a fair bit more to come than we have seen thus far,but It looks to me like he will be in the CH.
Without him I would have Ballyandy.
I will let Melon run,i aint backing a horse with his lack of form.

River Wylde for me, looks a very classy sort.