Cheltenham Festival
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Invitation Only
Invitation Only
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I agree about Moon Racer. But I was very taken with both NJH runners Jenkins and Loigh Derg Spirit.
Glad they said that about Crack Mome, makes it more likely he is Wylie's Supreme horse and Invitation Only their Neptune. |
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I'm warm on Jenkins and Lough Derg Spirit - backed both - but my only concern is probably one will run here unlike last season tow ie Altior and Buveur D'air.
Moon Racer is a good horse but no Altior, and I'm not bowled over by the two finishing 2nd to him though eg Mirsaale and Ballyandy. |
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I cant see NJH only running Jenkins and having David Bass take the ride? He will have at least one more entry for Nico
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2016 - Altior 1st, Buveur D'Air 3rd
2015 - L'ami Serge 4th 2014 - Josses Hill 2nd, Vaniteux 3rd 2013 - My Tent or Yours 2nd, River Maigue 8th 2012 - Darlan 2nd 2011 - Spirit Son 2nd, Sprinter Sacre 3rd If he's got two good novices I think he will run them both against each other. |
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Not a bad record btw is it!
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And especially when it becomes clear that Invitation Only is the banker of the Festival in the Neptune
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I hope youre right ive gone in twice. Xmas then Deloitte over 2m2 then neptune
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Invitation Only is the 'banker, you reckoned?,...do not discount Epicuris (if) he makes it to Cheltenham; my current bankers for Cheltenham are Altior, Unowhatimeanharry and Getabird.
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One observation of mine so far is W Mullins haven't seemed to jump so well,hasn't stopped them but just have NOT been as impressed as previous years when they've had visually very taking novice performances, prices to short for me at this stage with his disrespect for the punting community...
And in previous years I've been ball deep on some of his at this stage. |
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Yet another winner from one of Invitation Only's races. Sunni May winning again.
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Turcagua another one from the Punchestown bumper hacked up today and the horse Sunni May beat last time (Dr Mikey) bolted up today.
All in all Invitation Only looks pretty decent.  |
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Wylie was interviewed earlier on and said Invitation Only will likely go for the Neptune
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I've had some more on - 4pts @ 9/1 for the Neptune and another 0.5pt @ 33/1 for the Supreme.
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CCM/unclepuncle
I thought both of you were on LDS for the Neptune. How many have you backed in this race, may I ask? |
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Nope. I've only backed one horse for the Neptune ands that's IO. As per the LDS thread, I'm on him for the Supreme.
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Given his connections we had both backed IO in the any race market but given the recent boosts to his form and recent comments suggesting the Neptune is the likelier target I have gone in again mainly for the Neptune (could have taken 7/1 any race but instead had a saver @ 33/1 for the Supreme).
Still think that 33/1 could be a massive trading oppirtunity - Yorkhill was around 7/1 for each race with a fortnight to go and I can see a similar late decision again and if it was really soft going the Supreme is still very possible. Of course he may flop next time out and all bets are off - that's the gamble. I originally thought LDS might be aimed at the Neptune (he is a 3m point winner and they have Jenkins in the same yard)) but I will have a saver on the Supreme @ 16/1 before his run on Friday. |
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Yes I've done my main bet in the Any Race market at 10/1 and 8/1. But backed him in the Neptune too at 14/1. All on the thread.
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Crack Mome is the fly in the ointment for that strategy though uncle. Last year both Bellshill and Yorkhill could have run in either race, and that was the guessing game right up until the last minute. This year, I think they've made it clear Crack Mome will be a 2 miler, if good enough to go to Cheltenham.
The only way the Supreme will be entertained is if he isn't traveling. And I still maintain Flemensfirth horses don't run in Supremes very often. |
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Hendo has a dilemma: LDS a fluent jumper whilst Jenkins is sh1t. If the jumping on th latter does not improved significantly he'd be left behind in the Supreme thus Neptune could still be the race for him; I'm on Jenkins and Epicuris for the 2m and LDS both.
As for Yorkhill and Bellshill (same owner) WPM did not want a formidable opponent against Min last year hence Yorkhill (the intended Supreme runner) was rerouted to the Neptune and Bellshill (a stayer) sacrificed for the Supreme instead; the season before it was Shaneshill sacrificed against Douvan instead of Nichols Canyon (same owner as Shaneshill) - Nichols Canyon beat Faugheen in the Morgiana the season after. |
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'Jenkins is sh1t'.
Another ridiculous statement |
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As for WPM, what did you expect him to do? Wylie clearly wanted to split his two horses up, so they did so giving themselves the most chance of a winner. And clearly got it right. Bellshill probably wouldnt have won the Neptune, and Yorkhill probably wouldnt have won the Supreme, so can't understand why on earth you are questioning what he did.
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CCM
Jenkins is sh1t - his jumping!!! Bellshill ran in a race he'd no chance of winning; if he'd run in the Neptune or the AB (he won over 24f soon after) instead of the Supreme he could have won either and possibly Yorkhill could have given Altior a race and/or finished infront of Min and Buveur D'air. I also believe (now) Yanworth is overrated, and possibly Yorkhill rerouted to the Champion Hurdle if Faugheen and/or Annie Power is/are absent; Min could also be rerouted to the JLT to avoid Altior - the connections have a history of race avoidance. |
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Connections have a history of doing whats best for their horses and a proven track record of getting it right. They have so many horses, that sometimes they raise a few eyebrows, but the results speak for themselves.
Its easy to wise after the event, but Bellshill clearly wasnt going to run in the Neptune against Yorkhill so the choice was Supreme or AB. He had shown plenty of speed up until then and Willie ran about 7 or 8 in the AB anyway. He's disappointed twice at Chelts now so maybe he just doesn't like it there? Wilie has confirmed Yorkhill goes chasing. He will be the JLT horse and Min the Arkle horse. Clearly things can chnage, and if so, good luck to them. You make it sound like its so easy to run an operation like he does. To keep all the owners happy, and get as many winners at the most competitive meeting of the year as they do is nothing short of remarkable. Jenkins jumping clearly isnt 'sh1t'. He's a novice and it was his first attempt ffs. |
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Last year they always had Min pencilled in for the Supreme so that was a factor in Yorkhills target - if Min had got a last minute injury I expect they would have rerouted Yorkhill to the Suprmeme with Bellshill (who was never as big a fancy, similar to Shaneshill in his novice hurdle year) going to the Neptune.
This year Melon has been the one at the front of the Supreme betting, though not nearly as strong as Min was last year. His progress (assuming he sees the racetrack) will also have a bearing on where others run. I wonder if Invitation Only will go the Tolworth route, same as Yorkhill? |
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Invitation Only is entered in the Navan Novice Hurdle over 20f this sunday and so is Death Duty; No More Heroes won this beating Shaneshill two seasons ago. Interesting if both run.
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Would be brilliant if they both ran. Potentially the most exciting match up so far this season in the Novice dept.
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Skybet going nrnb on the Supreme so have loaded up on LDS @ 16/1 and IO @ 25/1
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PP going 6/4 Death Duty and 5/2 Invitation Only
 - guess which one I have lumped on. |
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Ive had some 5/2 as well. Thought the prices would be the other way round.
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Fair to say that 5/2 was a bit of a rick.
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Invitation Only, the fav for the Neptune, is representing Wylie and Willie whilst Death Duty, the fav for the Albert Bartlett, is representing Gigginstown and Elliot identical to the running in 2014 ie Shaneshill and No More Heroes, the exception being the weights - level against 3lbs this time. Pointers aplenty for the future eg JLT/RSA/Gold Cup.
Invitation Only is the rightful fav now (I think) in receipt of 3lbs from Death Duty, and shorter trip. |
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how can this be a pointer to jlt rsa and the like, relentless non sense... of course if this were a novice chase, it would be a good pointer
no doubt invitation only is potentially a nice horse, does it worry any willie mullins has stated he believes the horse to be a winter horse, this will explain his just ok form so far in his career...i'm sure he is open to improvement but i wonder whether this will coincide with proper winter ground...anyway tomorrow will tell us more apologies to normal posters on here, however this guy has ruined so many threads for me since he surfaced on the forum and i know i'm not the only one, hence why people have stopped posting interesting views... i see he has come up with a lot of junk on this thread as well, shame anyway be lucky with the horse tomorrow |
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Reckon it will be plenty soft enough tomorrow so can't have any excuses on the going front - if he gets beat IO he simply isn't as good as we hope.
No doubt many of these runners will be contesting decent graded races over hurdles and fences over the next few years but that's basically stating the bleeding obvious which seems to be the only thing I123 is any good at.  |
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 Is that as good as he is? Seemed a funny run to me. Ruby dropped him in and didn't look happy from a very early stage. |
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I remember Don Cossack (who I tipped up as the next great thing long before anyone else, and had lumped on im for the Neptune @ 16/1) running equally badly in that race (fell at the last when legless) when he was hot favourite and he did OK eventually - though he was rubbish as a novice hurdler.
They seemed to go an absolute crawl, but that should have favoured him more than Death Duty. He didn't jump well most of the way and like you say Ruby seemed to have accepted it from a long way out - though why not pull up? TBH I reckon the antepost money is down the drain. Only slight silver lining is that the market strength behind him today meant I could lay off most my 5/2 on todays race at 11/8 but still hugely deflating. |
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i don't agree that he didn't jump well punkle, seemed to jump fine apart from one flight down the back
i actually thought he ran to the level he showed before this performance but obviously came with an unbeaten record...he raced a tad keen to me under a hold up ride, something he hadn't experienced before...i know he was made the price he was on his record but his actual race record had exposed him a tad imo as he actually hadn't won that easily on either of his last 2 starts...this for me was step forward on what he had achieved previously and maybe gives connections more options... after all he had been exposed as a horse who needed to race on the front end, something he had done in all of his previous starts and he was stepping up in trip today so was worth a shot to try and settle him in behind and in all fairness i thought he jumped well and will learn from this experience i'd be more inclined to give him one more try before i say he isn't good enough as in all fairness he kept plugging away...his next run will tell us a whole lot more and better ground is probably more favorable to him as well...it will be interesting to see whether he is dropped in again next time or whether they take him back to the front and make the running...i'd drop him in again myself but they may not want to disappoint him, so who knows, he's in good hands but he maybe not as good as people first thought...his next run will tell us where we stand just on the winner, he looks very tough to me but it could be argued he didn't achieve a lot more than on his previous start, he clearly has an engine and 3 miles will be right up his street...i see he is 3/1 to win the great race, i won't say what i think of that but he is going the right way and will be a solid player come the day...the irish novices this year like the english ones leave a bit to be desired at this early stage |
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I also remember Champagne Fever bombing out in one of his novice hurdle races before winning the Supreme.
Mullins won the big grade 1 novice at Leopardstiwn with Saturnas and I'm pretty sure he isn't held in the same regard as Invitation Only so hopefullly all is not lost. |
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I'm not giving up hope either. There appears to be a lack of concrete contenders for this race so far, and it's quite possible that race last time was one of the strongest pieces of form this season anyway. The winner could be special and might just be the Albert Bartlett winner, so getting beat a few lengths by him might look Ok in the end.
The drift also suggeste he wasn't quite right in the day. Nobody is better at getting them to peak for March. |
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Death Duty was impressive but I cannot have IO in either the Neptune or Albert Bartlett - he seemed to give up, literally. Maybe Mullins will run him in the Supreme, the same path as Shaneshill when beaten by No More Heroes.
I thought IO was backed from 5/2 2nd fav into favouritism on the day and prior. |
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Give up? You literally couldn't read the race more differently to me. He was staying on right until the end and actually closing on Death Duty in the final 100 yard. Happy to give him another chance as that ground was virtually heavy and to my eye, he hated it.
Will be a different proposition back on better ground imo. He was backed in the days leading up to the race. Drifted like a barge on the day. |