Invitation Only

Also a I wouldn't read too much into it as I've heard Willie say a few times, that he's happy to run his novices over 2m early on, even if they are stepping up in trio later in the season. Said there is much more choice of 2m races.

Also, you don't see too many of Flemensfirth's progeny running over 2m for long. I think the AB is probably more likely than the Supreme myself. But you'd have to think he's a perfect Neptune horse at this stage.

Other than that, I think it's a good bet

Nice debut from the Wylie owned Crack Mome today - no doubt there will be much conjecture and confusion about which horse goes to which race up until the final decs.

Was a bit underwhelmed with Crack Mome myself. Got a feeling the Irish challengers for the Supreme might be a bit below par this year.

Must admit I posted without seeing the race and having watched the video it on the sporting life website I was also a little unimpressed. He did everything right during the race jumping pretty well and cruising behind the leaders, but when he was shaken up pretty vigorously at the last he did't put much daylight between himself and the others - who are no great shakes.

Mullins and Walsh seemed happy and said he was very green and might have found the ground a bit soft and also said 2m was as far as he wants.

Not sure the English are all that good either - Moon Racer is solid but doesn't excite me and for all his talent I have my doubts that Jenkins will be happy at Cheltenham.

I agree about Moon Racer. But I was very taken with both NJH runners Jenkins and Loigh Derg Spirit.

Glad they said that about Crack Mome, makes it more likely he is Wylie's Supreme horse and Invitation Only their Neptune.

I'm warm on Jenkins and Lough Derg Spirit - backed both - but my only concern is probably one will run here unlike last season tow ie Altior and Buveur D'air.
Moon Racer is a good horse but no Altior, and I'm not bowled over by the two finishing 2nd to him though eg Mirsaale and Ballyandy.

I cant see NJH only running Jenkins and having David Bass take the ride? He will have at least one more entry for Nico

2016 - Altior 1st, Buveur D'Air 3rd
2015 - L'ami Serge 4th
2014 - Josses Hill 2nd, Vaniteux 3rd
2013 - My Tent or Yours 2nd, River Maigue 8th
2012 - Darlan 2nd
2011 - Spirit Son 2nd, Sprinter Sacre 3rd

If he's got two good novices I think he will run them both against each other.

Not a bad record btw is it!

And especially when it becomes clear that Invitation Only is the banker of the Festival in the Neptune

I hope youre right ive gone in twice. Xmas then Deloitte over 2m2 then neptune

Invitation Only is the 'banker, you reckoned?,...do not discount Epicuris (if) he makes it to Cheltenham; my current bankers for Cheltenham are Altior, Unowhatimeanharry and Getabird.

One observation of mine so far is W Mullins haven't seemed to jump so well,hasn't stopped them but just have NOT been as impressed as previous years when they've had visually very taking novice performances, prices to short for me at this stage with his disrespect for the punting community...
And in previous years I've been ball deep on some of his at this stage.

Yet another winner from one of Invitation Only's races. Sunni May winning again.

Turcagua another one from the Punchestown bumper hacked up today and the horse Sunni May beat last time (Dr Mikey) bolted up today.
All in all Invitation Only looks pretty decent.

Wylie was interviewed earlier on and said Invitation Only will likely go for the Neptune

I've had some more on - 4pts @  9/1 for the Neptune and another 0.5pt @ 33/1 for the Supreme.

CCM/unclepuncle

I thought both of you were on LDS for the Neptune. How many have you backed in this race, may I ask?

Nope. I've only backed one horse for the Neptune ands that's IO. As per the LDS thread, I'm on him for the Supreme.

Given his connections we had both backed IO in the any race market but given the recent boosts to his form and recent comments suggesting the Neptune is the likelier target I have gone in again mainly for the Neptune (could have taken 7/1 any race but instead had a saver @ 33/1 for the Supreme).
Still think that 33/1 could be a massive trading oppirtunity - Yorkhill was around 7/1 for each race with a fortnight to go and I can see a similar late decision again and if it was really soft going the Supreme is still very possible. Of course he may flop next time out and all bets are off - that's the gamble.

I originally thought LDS might be aimed at the Neptune (he is a 3m point winner and they have Jenkins in the same yard)) but I will have a saver on the Supreme @ 16/1 before his run on Friday.

Yes I've done my main bet in the Any Race market at 10/1 and 8/1. But backed him in the Neptune too at 14/1. All on the thread.

Crack Mome is the fly in the ointment for that strategy though uncle. Last year both Bellshill and Yorkhill could have run in either race, and that was the guessing game right up until the last minute. This year, I think they've made it clear Crack Mome will be a 2 miler, if good enough to go to Cheltenham.

The only way the Supreme will be entertained is if he isn't traveling. And I still maintain Flemensfirth horses don't run in Supremes very often.

Hendo has a dilemma: LDS a fluent jumper whilst Jenkins is sh1t. If the jumping on th latter does not improved significantly he'd be left behind in the Supreme thus Neptune could still be the race for him; I'm on Jenkins and Epicuris for the 2m and LDS both.

As for Yorkhill and Bellshill (same owner) WPM did not want a formidable opponent against Min last year hence Yorkhill (the intended Supreme runner) was rerouted to the Neptune and Bellshill (a stayer) sacrificed for the Supreme instead; the season before it was Shaneshill sacrificed against Douvan instead of Nichols Canyon (same owner as Shaneshill) - Nichols Canyon beat Faugheen in the Morgiana the season after.

'Jenkins is sh1t'.

Another ridiculous statement

As for WPM, what did you expect him to do? Wylie clearly wanted to split his two horses up, so they did so giving themselves the most chance of a winner. And clearly got it right. Bellshill probably wouldnt have won the Neptune, and Yorkhill probably wouldnt have won the Supreme, so can't understand why on earth you are questioning what he did.

CCM

Jenkins is sh1t - his jumping!!!

Bellshill ran in a race he'd no chance of winning; if he'd run in the Neptune or the AB (he won over 24f soon after) instead of the Supreme he could have won either and possibly Yorkhill could have given Altior a race and/or finished infront of Min and Buveur D'air.

I also believe (now) Yanworth is overrated, and possibly Yorkhill rerouted to the Champion Hurdle if Faugheen and/or Annie Power is/are absent; Min could also be rerouted to the JLT to avoid Altior - the connections have a history of race avoidance.

Connections have a history of doing whats best for their horses and a proven track record of getting it right. They have so many horses, that sometimes they raise a few eyebrows, but the results speak for themselves.

Its easy to wise after the event, but Bellshill clearly wasnt going to run in the Neptune against Yorkhill so the choice was Supreme or AB. He had shown plenty of speed up until then and Willie ran about 7 or 8 in the AB anyway. He's disappointed twice at Chelts now so maybe he just doesn't like it there?

Wilie has confirmed Yorkhill goes chasing. He will be the JLT horse and Min the Arkle horse. Clearly things can chnage, and if so, good luck to them. You make it sound like its so easy to run an operation like he does. To keep all the owners happy, and get as many winners at the most competitive meeting of the year as they do is nothing short of remarkable.

Jenkins jumping clearly isnt 'sh1t'. He's a novice and it was his first attempt ffs.

Last year they always had Min pencilled in for the Supreme so that was a factor in Yorkhills target - if Min had got a last minute injury I expect they would have rerouted Yorkhill to the Suprmeme with Bellshill (who was never as big a fancy, similar to Shaneshill in his novice hurdle year) going to the Neptune.

This year Melon has been the one at the front of the Supreme betting, though not nearly as strong as Min was last year. His progress (assuming he sees the racetrack) will also have a bearing on where others run.

I wonder if Invitation Only will go the Tolworth route, same as Yorkhill?

Invitation Only is entered in the Navan Novice Hurdle over 20f this sunday and so is Death Duty; No More Heroes won this beating Shaneshill two seasons ago. Interesting if both run.

Would be brilliant if they both ran. Potentially the most exciting match up so far this season in the Novice dept.

Skybet going nrnb on the Supreme so have loaded up on LDS @ 16/1 and IO @ 25/1

PP going 6/4 Death Duty and 5/2 Invitation Only - guess which one I have lumped on.

Ive had some 5/2 as well. Thought the prices would be the other way round.

Fair to say that 5/2 was a bit of a rick.

Invitation Only, the fav for the Neptune, is representing Wylie and Willie whilst Death Duty, the fav for the Albert Bartlett, is representing Gigginstown and Elliot identical to the running in 2014 ie Shaneshill and No More Heroes, the exception being the weights - level against 3lbs this time. Pointers aplenty for the future eg JLT/RSA/Gold Cup.

Invitation Only is the rightful fav now (I think) in receipt of 3lbs from Death Duty, and shorter trip.

how can this be a pointer to jlt rsa and the like, relentless non sense... of course if this were a novice chase, it would be a good pointer

no doubt invitation only is potentially a nice horse, does it worry any willie mullins has stated he believes the horse to be a winter horse, this will explain his just ok form so far in his career...i'm sure he is open to improvement but i wonder whether this will coincide with proper winter ground...anyway tomorrow will tell us more



apologies to normal posters on here, however this guy has ruined so many threads for me since he surfaced on the forum and i know i'm not the only one, hence why people have stopped posting interesting views... i see he has come up with a lot of junk on this thread as well, shame

anyway be lucky with the horse tomorrow

Reckon it will be plenty soft enough tomorrow so can't have any excuses on the going front - if he gets beat IO he simply isn't as good as we hope.

No doubt many of these runners will be contesting decent graded races over hurdles and fences over the next few years but that's basically stating the bleeding obvious which seems to be the only thing I123 is any good at.

Is that as good as he is? Seemed a funny run to me. Ruby dropped him in and didn't look happy from a very early stage.

I remember Don Cossack (who I tipped up as the next great thing long before anyone else, and had lumped on im for the Neptune @ 16/1) running equally badly in that race (fell at the last when legless) when he was hot favourite and he did OK eventually - though he was rubbish as a novice hurdler.

They seemed to go an absolute crawl, but that should have favoured him more than Death Duty. He didn't jump well most of the way and like you say Ruby seemed to have accepted it from a long way out - though why not pull up?

TBH I reckon the antepost money is down the drain. Only slight silver lining is that the market strength behind him today meant I could lay off most my 5/2 on todays race at 11/8 but still hugely deflating.

i don't agree that he didn't jump well punkle, seemed to jump fine apart from one flight down the back

i actually thought he ran to the level he showed before this performance but obviously came with an unbeaten record...he raced a tad keen to me under a hold up ride, something he hadn't experienced before...i know he was made the price he was on his record but his actual race record had exposed him a tad imo as he actually hadn't won that easily on either of his last 2 starts...this for me was step forward on what he had achieved previously and maybe gives connections more options... after all he had been exposed as a horse who needed to race on the front end, something he had done in all of his previous starts and he was stepping up in trip today so was worth a shot to try and settle him in behind and in all fairness i thought he jumped well and will learn from this experience

i'd be more inclined to give him one more try before i say he isn't good enough as in all fairness he kept plugging away...his next run will tell us a whole lot more and better ground is probably more favorable to him as well...it will be interesting to see whether he is dropped in again next time or whether they take him back to the front and make the running...i'd drop him in again myself but they may not want to disappoint him, so who knows, he's in good hands but he maybe not as good as people first thought...his next run will tell us where we stand

just on the winner, he looks very tough to me but it could be argued he didn't achieve a lot more than on his previous start, he clearly has an engine and 3 miles will be right up his street...i see he is 3/1 to win the great race, i won't say what i think of that but he is going the right way and will be a solid player come the day...the irish novices this year like the english ones leave a bit to be desired at this early stage

I also remember Champagne Fever bombing out in one of his novice hurdle races before winning the Supreme.

Mullins won the big grade 1 novice at Leopardstiwn with Saturnas and I'm pretty sure he isn't held in the same regard as Invitation Only so hopefullly all is not lost.

I'm not giving up hope either. There appears to be a lack of concrete contenders for this race so far, and it's quite possible that race last time was one of the strongest pieces of form this season anyway. The winner could be special and might just be the Albert Bartlett winner, so getting beat a few lengths by him might look Ok in the end.

The drift also suggeste he wasn't quite right in the day. Nobody is better at getting them to peak for March.

Death Duty was impressive but I cannot have IO in either the Neptune or Albert Bartlett - he seemed to give up, literally. Maybe Mullins will run him in the Supreme, the same path as Shaneshill when beaten by No More Heroes.

I thought IO was backed from 5/2 2nd fav into favouritism on the day and prior.

Give up? You literally couldn't read the race more differently to me. He was staying on right until the end and actually closing on Death Duty in the final 100 yard. Happy to give him another chance as that ground was virtually heavy and to my eye, he hated it.

Will be a different proposition back on better ground imo.

He was backed in the days leading up to the race. Drifted like a barge on the day.

Strange one this - I wouldn't be in a rush to back him at top price 16/1 now, but I wouldn't be too put off anyone who is sitting on a decent voucher.  I just think he came up against a really good one in Death Duty, who reminds me a lot of No More Heroes, where he looks like he'll be a monster staying chaser next year, a typical Giggi type.

I don't see too many reasons why IO could reverse the form, but the likelihood is that they won't reoppose at Cheltenham because Death Duty looks like he'll be in the AB, although they are both entered in a G1 2m4f novice hurdle in Feb.

Hope better ground will improve IO no end. I think he will avoid Death Duty and will head either for the Supreme or Neptune. If the latter he could encounter Ballyandy and Messire Des Obeaux, the latter could be running in the Challow (no penalty) at Newbury this saturday or Neptune at Cheltenham on New Year's Day.

After today's Challow Hurdle Messire Des Obeaux could depose Death Duty (more likely AB), Robin Roe or IO as fav for the Neptune - he is good, genuine and has the best form to boot too.

Seems like I underestimated Messire a bit and he was very professional, but I still think he lacks the gears needed to win a Cheltenham novice.

Elliots runner in second will give him a nice idea of how the English compare to the Irish - think he'll be happy with what he found out.

It seems the performance of MDO in the Challow has not impressed Betfair - they are the biggest at 14/1; IO is still the fav with most bookies which surprises me - potential over form perhaps.

With Robin Roe falling and Gordon's horse running on for second I'd have the same view as bet fair @ 14/1 . Wouldn't have Invatitaion Only fav but the first few in the market could re-route .

@can't catch me, you are giving me hope here that it might be worth holding onto the vouchers. The novice races all seem up in the air at the moment with all the horses fancied early in the markets either underperforming, injured or not having been seen yet. The neptune especially seems a complete mess at the moment, no standout runner and no clear direction, if death duty goes his likely route of the AB, can't see any entries for Invitation at the moment but would prefer another run pre-cheltenham

Think the Neptune might have a credible fav by the weekend FA... if Finians Oscar shows he's as good as Colin Tizzard thinks he is in the Tolworth!

I'm probably clutching at straws but I'm kinda hoping finians rocks up at Wincanton and leaves the Nichols beast in Torworth. I posted it a few days ago

i'd be really disappointed if capitaine was good enough to win a tolworth...i've got that ascot race as just an average grade 2 although this looks an average grade 1 on paper, he does look a nice tough sort though...we will see saturday but i'd be disappointed if finians or the mare aren't good enough to put it right up to him 

it will be interesting to see if the 2 mares get the chance to put the cat amongst the pigeons this weekend getting the allowances

my notes have swayed me a tad in regards that ascot race

just gone back through the ascot race and think i've been a tad harsh on the race tbh... i suppose i was a tad disappointed how much keep in line (backed it that day) found off the bridle when asked but maybe the winner has just deceived me a tad in regards to idling running down towards the last and keep in line probably doesn't want proper national hunt ground although he is probably a ponse...

although i thought it was just an ok race on paper, the time of the race was good considering the pace early so am inclined to change my mind and think it was probably a better race than my first impression of the race, so will now back track a tad in regards the winner and probably say he is ok as was that race at ascot

in regards the tolworth and cheltenham he would have to step up, especially chelt but considering what we have seen this season in regards novices it is not inconceivable he can't although i'm not sure he is more a neptune type but am finding him a difficult type to get a true angle on in all fairness and he isn't short of pace... so saturday is a nice watching brief with the fry horse who is going to be a nice prospect

just on the finians horse and that hereford novice which he won easily i didn't think the race was much but he won it easily...i haven't seen many win from out wide there and that's where fehily took his horse...he tended to jump well, so is in the completely unexposed category although he is pretty short for the tolworth but he can probably step up, he will need to but can

anyway yet to have an ante post for cheltenham as still dissecting the runners in my own brutal way, so no offence to any whoever you are backing, although think the chest will be open soon for the triumph hurdle winner

Bit of a boost at the weekend with Barra winning so easily.

Fingers crossed they can get this fella to peak for March as his form still looks very, very good imo. Even his 'bad' run was only a couple of lengths behind Death Duty who seems to be the best novice in Ireland. Finians Oscar aside, it doesn't look a strong Neptune.

Still keeping the faith.

Surely they'll be looking at the Deliotte in a couple of weeks.

Quite refreshing not having Mullins odds on hotpots in the Supreme and Neptune for once, was getting a bit boring.

Unless you were on them at fancy prices

The golden Cygnet novice hurdle (Nathaniel Lacy) grade 2 race on Irish ch day is the race to look out for with regards to Mullins Neptune targets.

I may be clutching at straws a bit here... but another bit of a boost today. The Storyteller won very well in a decent little race at Thurles today beating the likes of Battleford and Some Neck.

Monalee previously beat him quite comfortably at Punch. Adding weight to the fact the Death Dity, Monalee, Invitation Only race could still be red hot form.

Would you prefer Invitation Only or Finians Oscar to win it CCM?

Invitation Only mate.

Can anybody point me in the direction of any piece of form that suggests Invitation Only is up to winning this even in what may seem a weak year ??

Not yet - but he was very impressive in all his runs until last time, where he was hot favourite against a good field.
If that was his true running then he is probably a little shy of the required standard (decent form though it was as CCM has explained), but if he underperformed a lot that day (going, injury etc) as I hope, then he clearly might still be plenty good enough.

Not suggesting anyone backs him now, but those of us who took the view he was special before his last defeat are still clinging on to that hope.

Of course you've gotta cling to hope if you're already on him.

I think the form of his maiden hurdle win is rubbish personally, Barra has since won a terrible maiden hurdle beating Mullins mare that could not win in Limerick over Christmas and New Kid In Town has been stuffed every time since.
I suppose though bar Death Duty there is so little to pick between any of Ireland's novice hurdlers it's hard to know where they stand, there has not appeared to be a stand out performer (Death Duty aside and possibly Augusta Kate who was there when falling last time) so any improvement would put him to the top of our novices but surely the UK have better this year?

Entered in the 2m4f Grade 2 at Leop on Sunday. Looks like it could be a very, very hot race. Fancy this will be more his race than the Deloitte.

Mullins in the RP a couple of days ago touched on IO:

I'm much much happier with Invitation Only now and he seems to be coming back to himself. We were dissapointed with him at Navan but he worked this week and I was much happier. He's certainly a possible for the Neptune, as is Saturnas

Only needs to peak in March Willie

Neither he nor Bravissimo chosen to run, bit gutted with that as this is the Neptune trial IMO, hopefully both run in the Deloitte though.

when is the deloitte hurdle?

2 Weeks today

Noticeable push out from Paddy today. Now 16/1.

Starting to lose the faith rapidly.

Can't Catch Me 30 Jan 17 19:11

Starting to lose the faith rapidly.

Now you know how I feel about Klopp.

should find out whether it is still in the entries fairly shortly.

Anothee boost to the Navan form with Monalee wiining today.

He is only enetered for the Neptune and Albert Bartlett (surely not!!) so my specualtive Supreme bets are down the drain (except the one with Skybet who were nrnb).

Certainly there is that odd bit of support for him, has to run in the deloitte a week on sunday for me to be a contender, but might be a slow burn, the form side is certainly holding up better than expected. I haven't given up entirely on him yet.

Is there anything else for him other than a hot Deloitte?

Introduced in the betting for the Boys race by PP. Interesting.

Boys race?

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys race.

Yeah, sorry, I'd seen that. You'd hope he wouldn't qualify with his rating. The form of that 3rd looks strong behind DD.

We'll see in an hour or so the plans, see if he's entered for Sunday.

I suppose the last 24 hrs tells us that anything is possible!

Yeah exactly! Thought he might be a bit high, but you never know. They've got Battleford entered as well and you'd think he would be the more likely Wylie runner.

The fact Invitation Only is 8/1 with PP for the Deloitte on Sunday probably means he isn't going there you'd think as surely shouldn't be that price. He is entered for first race at Gowran next Thursday though.

not entered at the 24 stage, must be more likely he goes in one of the handicaps now, if at all.

sorry 48 hour

You think he won't run in the Neptune, or possibly even at Cheltenham at all, just because he hasn't been confirmed for the Deloitte? Really?!

He's entered at Clonmel on Thursday, he'll run in that.

Mullins is mob handed in the Deliotte, i'm perhaps happy he avoids all the others, mops up a smaller race, all systems go (Hopefully) for the Neptune.

He wont get in any of the handicaps imo, that 3rd behind DD wont have been missed by Smith.

Couldn't agree more Brownie.

Been a few nibbles for it today and back in to 14/1 (was 25/1+ last week). Probably not significant but given how disastrously my Cheltenhma antepost portfolio is going (poor performances, non runners and changes of running plans) I'll cling to anything.

Pulled out of the Munster hurdle tomorrow

Has he been entered anywhere else?

not at the moment.

I think there after better ground, very soft over there at present.

Think they will be waiting a while?

Just got this tweet:

@michaellooby2 Just had a word with Willie there,Invitation Only just not firing atm and practically no chance he goes to Cheltenham

Credible poster who attends nearly every Irish meeting possible.

He’s only 50/50 to get to Cheltenham at this stage and we might keep him for Fairyhouse. We had a little bit of a setback with him and I just haven’t been 100% happy with him since. That said, he has been a bit better in recent days, but the worry is whether I have enough done with him to get him to Cheltenham.

Nice to see my old mate back in the winners enclosure!

Thought that was a terrific performance. Slightly disconcerting Paddy are stand out biggest at 33/1 for the RSA, but he looks every inch a 3 miler to me and had to take some of that. Surely too big.

Another nice win today CCM - still 50/50 which race he goes for though.
He was one I intended to back for both JLT and RSA when the nrnb ofeers came in but they virtually cut the prices in half(generally 12/1 nrnb or 20/1 without) which rather renders it a waste of time so I haven't backed him yet. Obviously he is even shorter now.

Thought he was supposed to go straight to the festival. Hmmm 6/1 for weekend, yet a similar price with some for the jlt. I hope this horses season isn't left behind because of the trainers championship. Look what happened with death duty.