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Can't Catch Me
15 Nov 16 20:52
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Date Joined: 02 Apr 03
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In the vast battalion of WPM Novice Hurdlers, this beast is the one I am keeping the closest eye on this season. I was told that he was their best Bumper Horse last season but after having a bit of a setback, he never made the Festival.

He won two Bumper races late on in the season very easily, and he looks like he could be anything. At this stage I'd probably have him as a Neptune horse as they talked of him as being a stayer, but he has an entry over 2m for his hurdling debut this weekend, and as usual, it will be a complete lottery picking the right race.

I've backed him at 10/1 in the Any Race market and will be topping up at 8/1 before the weekend.

I'm hopeful he could be the WPM hotpot for the 2017 festival.

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Replies: 134
By:
wellchief
When: 15 Nov 16 21:26
Yeah I think he'll be a Neptune one too, and the betting suggests that (I didn't realise he was the current favourite).  I wouldn't be surprised if he is kept over 2m until the Deloite in Feb over 2m2f - maybe the Royal Bond at the end of this month will come to soon, but I agree that he'll be near the top of the Mullins pecking order come festival week.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 15 Nov 16 21:32
Evening mate. Suppose the issue will be keeping him and Battleford apart who also looks pretty exciting.

If one of Senewalk or Melon becomes the Supreme hotpot, then the Wylie pair could well be split between the Neptune and the AB. I've had a small bet on IO at 16/1 for the Neptune, but am am determined to bet Any Race more this year.
By:
wellchief
When: 15 Nov 16 21:40
Evening mate - good to get the jumps conversations starting again!

I think Battleford shapes like a real stayer, and the Albert Bartlett looks the obvious race for him - very little to choose between Battleford, Ballyandy and Bacardys on last years bumper form, and then chuck Blow by Blow in as well, so could be either Neptune or Bartlett bound too.

I know it was Moon Racer's first run in a while, but that Punchestown bumper looks really hot that Blow by Blow won, and I think that was over a trip too short.

Any race markets are definitely the ones to go for - the only bets I've had have been Any Race, especially when you only give away a couple of points.  Blow by Blow 10's a/r, Moon Racer 12's and 10's a/r, Yanworth 10's a/r and Ballyandy 14's a/r are the only antepost for peanuts that I've done so far.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 15 Nov 16 21:46
Deffo, only four months to go!

Yes Blow by Blow is in high on my radar too, and agree about the form of that Bumper. Looked a really deep race. Don't know what it is about Moon Racer though, but just can't bring myself to back him. Always been worried about Pipe calling him fragile.

I've just added Melon at 14's Any Race too. Heard that RR offered a lot of money to smaller owners in the yard and they turned it down. Presumably he must think / have been told, he's one of the best Novices!
By:
cause and effect
When: 16 Nov 16 09:02
Hi CCM! If RR is offering money for Melon, doesn't say much for Senewalk?? Not much info on a lot of Mullins other then "vibes" until they get to the track. Not easy to split Mullins' owners even with no Giggy though they call the shots clearly. Mullins clearly give preference to Ricci and Wylies though JP's Castello Sforza could be subject to where BJG/JP/Frank Berry say he'll go.

Wylies' POssibles:
Crack Mome (TBC)
Invitation Only
Battleford
Clinton Hill

Riccis' Possibles:
Senewalk
Riven Light
Some Neck
Livelovelaugh

Others:
Castello Sforza
Timi Roli
Bacardys
Very Much So

Mullins already up to his guessing games entering all of Timi Roli, Senewalk, Crack Mome, Riven Light in both this weekend's 4yo only maiden hurdles over 2m and 2m 4f. Invitation Only entered up in the 5yo+ maiden hurdle over 2m which is his only entry.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 16 Nov 16 10:47
Morning c&e, long time no speak! Trust you are well.

Yeah thats exactly what I thought mate. Bit of a worry for Senewalk backers maybe.
By:
gutfeeling
When: 16 Nov 16 18:41
Who did you get the 10/1 any race with as I'll hve some of that myself.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 16 Nov 16 20:05
Was a Sky bet price boost mate but only 8's now.
By:
gutfeeling
When: 17 Nov 16 09:50
Thanks for the reply buddy, 8's is still ok in my book so will open up the slybet account today and get on .
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 17 Nov 16 11:38
Was also 8's on the Sportsbook as well mate.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 17 Nov 16 11:39
And Paddy in fact!
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 17 Nov 16 14:26
Just noticed that Paddy are stand out lowest on Invitation Only for the Albert Bartlett at 11/1, and he is as high as 16/1 in places for the same race.

With their history that may be telling. Similarly, they are lowest price Battleford in the Neptune at 12/1 when he is as high as 20/1 in places for that. The fact he won a Point over 3m impressively may well suggest he is the more likely to go for the longer race? Anyway, the joy of the any race market is that it doesn't matter.
By:
cause and effect
When: 18 Nov 16 10:57
Hi CCM, I'm well. Mixture of being abroad and being busy. Senewalk entered over 2m4f tomorrow. Could Invitation ONly be asked to step up to 3m to take on Blow by Blow? Bacardys entered over 2m on Sunday. No sign of the Wylies' novices though
By:
Colonel Sanders
When: 19 Nov 16 21:59
Invitation Only was entered in the Bacardys race at Mallow tomorrow. Must be close to a run so?
By:
Paterson92
When: 19 Nov 16 22:20
Wish I had taken the "any race" option but I have been backing this horse for the Neptune for a while now. Taken 16's and rebacked at 14's still currently available.

His debut form just keeps stacking up. On debut over 2 miles on soft/heavy ground he beats Thirsty Work by 7 lengths (went on to win by 6 lengths next time out). He beats Joey Sasa by 7 lengths (has won well twice since). He beats Monbeg Notorious by 8.5 lengths (went on to win by 15 lengths). Beats Lakeside Castle by 12 lengths (came 2nd only run since). Beats Lake Malawi by 16 lengths (has won since). The only other runner in the race was tailed off and tailed off again on only other start. That's 4/6 future winners he's beaten on debut.

In my opinion, the further he goes the better he will be. Has a very similar profile to this years Neptune winner, Yorkhill.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 21 Nov 16 16:57
Sunni May gave him yet another nice boost yesterday Paterson.

Don't think there is a novice about with stronger looking form right now. Just wish I had a strong feeling either way between the Neptune or AB. As much as the 8/1 any race is perfectly acceptable it would be nice to get stuck in at 14's or 16's with a even a modicum of confidence! Being by Flemensfirth, you'd have to think these two are the only option.
By:
impossible123
When: 21 Nov 16 17:09
Epicuris, a French Gp1 winner at 2yrs old is with WPM; he is best price 25/1 for the Supreme Hurdle - he is also in the Neptune though.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 21 Nov 16 17:18
Yes a very interesting recruit. Was 5th in the Derby!
By:
jedi sophie
When: 21 Nov 16 20:26
Epicuris/Lunatic...
By:
jedi sophie
When: 21 Nov 16 20:26
Got more and more headstrong by the month!
By:
jedi sophie
When: 21 Nov 16 20:38
Will handle the Irish ground though for sure and at one point looked an absolute superstar in making for Abdullah!
By:
ImSoLuckyLucky!
When: 26 Nov 16 13:30
Wun easy today

Short as 6-1


Hum

Wink
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 29 Nov 16 07:51
Was very pleased with that. New To This Town is a decent horse and he was miles behind the front two. The runner up could well be decent. The further IO went the better and it looked an ideal Neptune prep. Also pleasing that he won despite plenty of Willie's running badly.
By:
speakup
When: 29 Nov 16 09:48
Invitation Only = Gold Cup in 2019 ?
By:
impossible123
When: 29 Nov 16 13:40
CCM
How good is IO? 10/1 is skinny, and I'm already on Ballyandy and LDS for the Neptune.
How do I get an antepost price for Altior in 2018? I think he could be destined for that.
By:
impossible123
When: 29 Nov 16 13:41
Sorry, a price for Altior in the Gold Cup in 2018.
By:
Fabulous
When: 29 Nov 16 15:04
Imp, just phone up any firm you have an account with if you want a price for 2018.

Not done it this season, due to "1 or 2" not making it Plain, but most firms will accomodate you, just ask for the bet to be referred to the traders.

In my experience Hills, 365, Sjames, Sky and Spoils, yes Spoils, are best for giving a price, and 365 & Hills are particularly quick, normally on hold for a couple of minutes. Don't bother with Korals, they are the worst of the lot.

Don't take the first price you are offered, as the prices offered can vary greatly. I got offered one this year at 250's, and only 125's with another firm.

I can't remember exactly when Oddschecker will kick in with this, but they definitely had 2017 Markets available for the big markets before this years Festival had kicked off.
By:
Fabulous
When: 29 Nov 16 15:04
Should also mention that Sportsbook don't entertain you either.
By:
impossible123
When: 29 Nov 16 16:18
Fabulous
Many thanks, I shall try.
By:
joevalue147
When: 29 Nov 16 22:33
Hi all. Class thread.   Does anyone know how much Epicuris was sold for? And was it a private buy or a horse 's in training sale. Many thanks for info.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 01 Dec 16 15:20
I've taken the 8/1 on any race. He doesn't seem to be quoted for the Supreme but it's nice to have that covered.
I know Willie says he will stay much further but you could have said the same about Douvan, Vautor and Champagne Fever. He didn't look short of pace at Gowran.
By:
impossible123
When: 01 Dec 16 17:36
I think every runner from Mullins' stable ought to be 8/1 on any race for Cheltenham. If Faugheen and Annie Power are ruled out expect some very good novice hurdlers rerouted there despite their successful debuts over fences so far.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 07 Dec 16 15:06
I see the Betfair Sportbook has him at 33/1 for the Supreme. His only entry right now is in the 2 mile Grade 1 at Leoapardstown over Christams so if he were to win that the Supreme could come into the reckoning so I have had a little extra on him @ 33/1.

Also the Royal Bond was a rather messy race and it's hard to see any of those winning a Supreme.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 07 Dec 16 21:42
Much will depend on Crack Mome I suppose, as he has shortened dramatically the past few days for the Supreme and Wylie usually splits them up.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 07 Dec 16 21:44
Also a I wouldn't read too much into it as I've heard Willie say a few times, that he's happy to run his novices over 2m early on, even if they are stepping up in trio later in the season. Said there is much more choice of 2m races.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 07 Dec 16 21:47
Also, you don't see too many of Flemensfirth's progeny running over 2m for long. I think the AB is probably more likely than the Supreme myself. But you'd have to think he's a perfect Neptune horse at this stage.

Other than that, I think it's a good bet Love
By:
unclepuncle
When: 08 Dec 16 12:48
Nice debut from the Wylie owned Crack Mome today - no doubt there will be much conjecture and confusion about which horse goes to which race up until the final decs.Cry
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 08 Dec 16 13:27
Was a bit underwhelmed with Crack Mome myself. Got a feeling the Irish challengers for the Supreme might be a bit below par this year.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 08 Dec 16 14:07
Must admit I posted without seeing the race and having watched the video it on the sporting life website I was also a little unimpressed. He did everything right during the race jumping pretty well and cruising behind the leaders, but when he was shaken up pretty vigorously at the last he did't put much daylight between himself and the others - who are no great shakes.

Mullins and Walsh seemed happy and said he was very green and might have found the ground a bit soft and also said 2m was as far as he wants.

Not sure the English are all that good either - Moon Racer is solid but doesn't excite me and for all his talent I have my doubts that Jenkins will be happy at Cheltenham.
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